A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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1520. JRRP
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Who are you? Ive Never Seen you on this Blog Before... All 5 Years...
He pops in and out...been fairly active, as you can see.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I don't think pple mean no damage will be done; in fact we already know of damage - 2 sunken boats, overwashed roads / docks, power out to most of the Bemudian populace, trees down. However, Bermuda was bracing itself for a storm this size, but with CAT 3 winds. So people are thinking more "it could have been much worse" than "there's a lot of damage likely there".


yeah. i know, but i saw a few "only lawn chairs have blown about" etc. type comments. just saying. it's a lot better than what we all expected, but he's still going to be a pain in the you know what.
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1516. pottery
Quoting truecajun:


I don't really even know EXACTLY what happened. I'm not sure if he was banned or really just picked up and left. Either way, to rid the blog of all the drama and questions, it would probably be best to just announce where he went. He doesn't have to give reasons. Just something like "StormW has moved his updates to ....." Period nothing more.

Yeah!
That would be like BP putting up signs saying "Exxon gas station, next left".
Get with Reality...
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Wow what will the nhc do when this becomes td 14, have an 80 degree forecast cone?
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Who are you? Ive Never Seen you on this Blog Before... All 5 Years...
Who? JFlorida? He's on here all the time.

Quoting Prgal:


I commented about the woman in PR yesterday and nobody cared (well, they were talking about the difference between storm surge and wave hights). Glad you brought it up.
I'm sorry I didn't respond. I did read the news article about it...

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Almost fall like - high of only 89, humidity about 10% lower -- very nice (for those of who have lived with the lows being 85 for the past 3 months)

No rain for the past two days--that's ok with me, the mosquitos are getting old.

Love the pic of the fish and the bear. You caught that in the river?
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1511. JLPR2
Quoting atmoaggie:
*Scratches head, too*
Well, without development, BAM-to-the-west makes sense. If the dynamical models want to develop it, more north makes sense, too.

I think this is just exhibiting what we have been saying for at least a day. No development, wave to the west. Some not-insignificant development, poleward motion long before any of the islands.


Seeing the Shallow, Medium and Deep Bam sending the storm in the same direction is weird as those three indicate the motion of the storm depending on how strong it is, but it is a statistical model so yeah... XD
All the dynamic models move it to the NW.
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

Oh, was that me? I don't know what any of that stuff means, but I'll take it down.
Ehh, now on a second page for most folks.

ftp servers are setup so that one can limit the number of anonymous users so that ones that have user names and passwords, that presumably really need to have access, can get it no matter the general internet traffic. (I think 50 is the default number, here, upon install of the ftp server daemon proftpd and others)

On my systems, the limit is 20. AOML, I think, allows 50. Once you reach that mark, only a user name and password will give you access, so many of us had a pop-up asking for user/password for that site by default due to the full usage of allowable anonymous users.
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1509. mbjjm
Igor never made it to 70west
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Quoting zoomiami:


lol Taz -- your too much!


Hey Zoomie... hows the weather in shark country.
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1506. mbjjm
Quoting CaribBoy:
Obviously..models don't know where 94L will end up.


Dont need modeltoknow where 94l GOES. anything which develops so close to the African Coast turn out to sea
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1504. Prgal
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Like I said I dont care about W or oz or anyone not related to the hurricane in Bermuda now.

A "featured blogger" is a conversational nicety. It would be totally inappropriate for Dr M to endorse a social weather site. IMHO.

Otherwise, the deaths reported earlier in Bermuda in some of the press were incorrect :

Hurricane Igor Kills Two In Caribbean

Hurricane Igor, currently nearing Bermuda, is being blamed for two suspected deaths in the Caribbean. The US Coast Guard was searching on Saturday night for a young woman who was swept out to sea in Puerto Rico and a boy who went missing at a beach in St. Croix.


I commented about the woman in PR yesterday and nobody cared (well, they were talking about the difference between storm surge and wave hights). Glad you brought it up.
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Quoting JLPR2:


The BAM suite changed towards the west as the rest of the models shift northward...
*Scratches head*
*Scratches head, too*
Well, without development, BAM-to-the-west makes sense. If the dynamical models want to develop it, more north makes sense, too.

I think this is just exhibiting what we have been saying for at least a day. No development, wave to the west. Some not-insignificant development, poleward motion long before any of the islands.
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Quoting JFLORIDA:


No he was a tech, at best, that isn't here anymore. I am tired of this and am flagging any post mentioning him.

Multiple Reports of Boats Breaking Free



you're gonna flag people who haven't been on in a few days and don't know the situation? why penalize them for things they have no way of knowing? just sayin....
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Obviously..models don't know where 94L will end up.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Whomever posted an image from ftp.aoml.noaa.gov, that site has a limited number of anonymous users (which is the method you used to access it). It will revert to asking for a user/password once the number of anonymous users allowed has been exhausted.

Plus, others in the forecast business, government and private (such as WU graphics) that need to access that ftp site cannot as long as a plot is present in this blog and the anonymous user allowance is used.

Do please take it down. Use a image hosting service for any images originating from a ftp server.

Oh, was that me? I don't know what any of that stuff means, but I'll take it down.
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Quoting FLdewey:
Dozens of lawn chairs have been destroyed today.

I hope Bermuda has a gas station with a rickety awning, otherwise news outlets will be at a loss for graphics.
Nicely put. LOL
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


Who are you? Ive Never Seen you on this Blog Before... All 5 Years...


I don't see his posts anymore.. but he has been around for quite sometime.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Prolly has peaked.

According to WaveWatch, will remain high through tomorrow, though.

Tabular wave height forecast for the spot in which that buoy resides:
http://polar.ncep.noaa.gov/cgi-bin/nww3_bull.cgi?1&latest_run/wna.41004
Total wave height, "Hst" in first column after day & hour.

Thanks atmo. That fits with the rip current forcast (Coastal Hazard Statement:High rip current risk remains in effect through Monday evening...)
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I don't think pple mean no damage will be done; in fact we already know of damage - 2 sunken boats, overwashed roads / docks, power out to most of the Bemudian populace, trees down. However, Bermuda was bracing itself for a storm this size, but with CAT 3 winds. So people are thinking more "it could have been much worse" than "there's a lot of damage likely there".

Do you know the size of the storm surge?
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5690

Quoting atmoaggie:
Hmm. Not saying it is a fake, but it is oddly coincidental that the winds instantly pick up the moment that all of the cars are still and the only motion is from the wind moving things around. Then winds suddenly go back to the same speed as the rest of the video when the light turns green and motion of cars would give away a speed up. Also, a loud noise at the instant the winds pick up to possibly cover the sound jump (or some damage caused by the winds, maybe). Look close at time 2:28.

(post 1259)

I find that section to be suspicious.
'Nados confirmed.  Lots of "creative" stuff appearing on net re the event, but then again it is New York.
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1488. JLPR2


The BAM suite changed towards the west as the rest of the models shift northward...
*Scratches head*
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1486. hydrus
Beautiful Bermuda............................................................................................. .................................................................................................... .................................................................................................... .................................................................................................... .................................................................................................... .................................................................................................... .................................................................................................... ................................................................. .................................................................................................... .......................................................................Time to wax the stick and get gnarly in the soup....not
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Quoting truecajun:
why are people acting like Igor won't cause trouble. ts force and cat 1 force winds for that many hours will be harmful.
I don't think pple mean no damage will be done; in fact we already know of damage - 2 sunken boats, overwashed roads / docks, power out to most of the Bemudian populace, trees down. However, Bermuda was bracing itself for a storm this size, but with CAT 3 winds. So people are thinking more "it could have been much worse" than "there's a lot of damage likely there".
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FYI...

Link

Link
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2835
1483. MahFL
Quoting CaptnDan142:


Weren't the wind fields measured by recon?


Supposedly, but it's been my experience, when the topical storm force circle is touching a place, the actual winds are nearer 25 mph than 39 mph.
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Quoting JFLORIDA:


Thank you I was wondering about that.


me too.
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1480. hydrus
.
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hasn't new york seen around five tornadoes this year or something?
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Quoting FLdewey:




2133 PARK SLOPE KINGS (BROOKLYN) NY 4067 7399 EF0 TORNADO CONFIRMED BY NWS STORM SURVEY. WINDS ESTIMATED UP TO 80 MPH. (OKX)

2142 2 S FLUSHING QUEENS NY 4074 7384 *** 1 FATAL *** EF1 TORNADO CONFIRMED BY NWS STORM SURVEY. WINDS ESTIMATED UP TO 100 MPH. (OKX)
...,yep makes sense,must have touched down in bk and then moved ne into flushing touching back down(flushing is ne of park slope)
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1475. JLPR2
Quoting truecajun:
why are people acting like Igor won't cause trouble. ts force and cat 1 force winds for that many hours will be harmful.


Exactly, Jeanne passed as a TS over PR and we had 7 deaths due to it. :\
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Whomever posted an image from ftp.aoml.noaa.gov, that site has a limited number of anonymous users (which is the method you used to access it). It will revert to asking for a user/password once the number of anonymous users allowed has been exhausted.

Plus, others in the forecast business, government and private (such as WU graphics) that need to access that ftp site cannot as long as a plot is present in this blog and the anonymous user allowance is used.

Do please take it down. Use a image hosting service for any images originating from a ftp server.
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Quoting Tazmanian:




his mother in law too him out too sea
OFF TOPIC! (but funny!) you are getting the hang of it.
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1470. leddyed
Quoting stillwaiting:
....are you from ledyard,ct....is that what your handle means???


LOL, nah, it's just a play of words on my real name. I'm a South GA boy.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.