A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting sammywammybamy:
What are the Chances of a Florida Hit this Year?


either 0% or 100%. Just have to wait and see which one it is.
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Quoting WxLogic:


Indeed... noticed the Operational is attempting to create an Omega type block pattern while the Ensemble doesn't appears to be quite bullish at this:



Why do they call it an Omega type block, the shape?
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Quoting sammywammybamy:
What are the Chances of a Florida Hit this Year?


Impossible to answer at this point; I think the 50/50 chance between the Gulf/Florida suggested by Dr. Gray and company also took into account the Cape Verde part of the season and we have not seen any of those storms steered our way yet....You own guess is as good as anyones.
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Noticed in SEFL the edge has been taken off the humidity, much more relaxing round here lately.
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2414. hydrus
Quoting sammywammybamy:


In a Cave.. LOL JK
Tell ya what...59 degrees anywhere in Florida is a treat this time of year...:)
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Quoting Jeff9641:


Don't believe him! Mid 70's to near 80 at the beaches at 7am in C FL this morning with maybe upper 60's in the Ocala area.


Low in Tampa was around 72 this a.m. Brooksville area is normally about 10 degrees cooler. So I wouldn't be totally shocked with low 60s in that area.
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According to the 06Z GFS, our seed will come from a monsoonal type development.

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2411. WxLogic
Quoting futuremet:
Major disagreement between the ECMWF operational and its ensemble members.



Indeed... noticed the Operational is attempting to create an Omega type block pattern while the Ensemble doesn't appears to be quite bullish at this:

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I am surprised that the 0z ECMWF operational run expects this system to miss the longwave trough.
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2408. pottery
Good Morning all.
Looking at the area east of here, at about 50W.
Will get some rains from that for sure.
Some Vorticity around there too.
In fact, the entire Caribbean looks pretty Threatening right now....
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Quoting Jeff9641:
Quoting weatherwart:
Wow. I just woke up to 59 degrees here in Central Florida. Yay Fall!

Now this is bull. I live in Longwood,FL north of Orlando and it was 74 degrees. Someone is lying! We won't get to the upper 50's until the end of October or November.


Sorry, NO LIE! I live in Spring Hill, Fl. and it was 61 here at 7:00AM
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Action should start shifting to the West soon (as discussed here early last week) and the biggest question I have is whether the Caribbean or Gulf will spawn any "majors" in October or early November......Guess it will all depend on what SST's look like at that time in those regions me thinks.
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2402. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting Jeff9641:


All I got to say is OUCH! This could allow for mulitple landfalls across FL in the coming weeks. It looks as if the Caribbean will go BOOM!
boom boom boom
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Major disagreement between the ECMWF operational and its ensemble members.





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2400. WxLogic
I don't expect the disturbances at 55W and 70W to develop (although I'm keeping it a possibility):



What I foresee and mentioned before is that these features will converge over the W Carib and add more energy to the existing one over the region which should jump start the cyclogenesis process.

In the VORT images below notice the instability over the W Carib and all it needs is a lifting mechanism to get convection started.

850MB


500MB
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Quoting IKE:
MJO....




Could be a very active MJO enhanced Sept/Oct in the Caribbean & GOM to finish out the 2010 year.






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2397. hydrus
Quoting Cotillion:


Morning Hydrus!

Yeah, I think the 00z GFS is even worse, though.

It has it swerving over the Caribbean Sea, over Cuba, swerves all over the Bahamas, goes along the Florida East Coast... then sees Georgia and obviously sees the ancient 'No hurricanes here' sign, backs on itself without a GA landfall, crosses Central Florida, then hits SW Louisiana as a TD/weak TS.

Crazy.

Definitely too much rum - more Matthew Bellamy than Matthew Broderick (assuming 94L becomes Lisa).
The interesting part is there,s a lot of potential storm development out in the Atlantic Basin...I have a hunch we will be tracking more dangerous hurricanes..even though we have had considerable activity so far..
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Morning everyone, DJ, Dewey. Woke up to frost this morning, wish I was somewhere warmer. Hopefully you guys can start posting your long gfs and others long runs. Runs. Got a mind like Peter Griffen this morning.
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2394. hydrus
Quoting weatherwart:
Wow. I just woke up to 59 degrees here in Central Florida. Yay Fall!
Where in Central Florida?...
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


94L*,

But yea, I agree with you.


Thanks (corrected below).............Need to put my reading glasses back on........ :)
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Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Morning All. Really glad to see that Igor went down a few notches before affecting Bermuda and 92L looking good so far with an anti-cyclone over it. Sheer really low at the moment between Africa and the Antilles so just have to keep an eye on that region. If 92L developes (and the sooner the better the chances of a fish), then it might be considered a continuation of the current "cluster" of storms that started about three weeks ago.


94L*,

But yea, I agree with you.
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Quoting hydrus:
No wonder those Caribbean storms pack a punch,,,,Its spiked...Good morning Cottilion.


Morning Hydrus!

Yeah, I think the 00z GFS is even worse, though.

It has it swerving over the Caribbean Sea, over Cuba, swerves all over the Bahamas, goes along the Florida East Coast... then sees Georgia and obviously sees the ancient 'No hurricanes here' sign, backs on itself without a GA landfall, crosses Central Florida, then hits SW Louisiana as a TD/weak TS.

Crazy.

Definitely too much rum - more Matthew Bellamy than Matthew Broderick (assuming 94L becomes Lisa).
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Morning All. Really glad to see that Igor went down a few notches before affecting Bermuda and 94L looking good so far with an anti-cyclone over it. Sheer really low at the moment between Africa and the Antilles so just have to keep an eye on that region. If 94L developes (and the sooner the better the chances of a fish), then it might be considered a continuation of the current "cluster" of storms that started about three weeks ago.
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2388. IKE
Here's today's....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2387. hydrus
Quoting IKE:
MJO....

That is a scary MJO graph..
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2386. WxLogic
Quoting IKE:
MJO....



Busy week coming up...
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2385. hydrus
Quoting Cotillion:
In fact, that run has the projected storm swerving so much all over the place. So much so, the storm could be arrested for DUI.

Too much Caribbean rum.
No wonder those Caribbean storms pack a punch,,,,Its spiked...Good morning Cottilion.
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2383. SQUAWK
Quoting MsStormX:


According to Dr. Masters Rules of the Road, what you've implied in the direct quote you've made above is an out and out untruth.

From Dr. Masters' Rules of the Road:

Spamming includes but is not limited to, trying to sell products, trying to solicit traffic for your own blog, trying to solicit traffic for other commercial entities, etc. Do not post links to your own site unless they are directly relevant and even then, use sparingly.

From my short time on this blog, I've noticed that you yourself do this all the time.

Shame on you.


If you had been paying attention over the last couple of years you would know he has always done that. If Admin disapproved of it, they would have done something long ago. They haven't, so it must be OK with them. He does provide valuable info there that would take up a lot of space here. So it is a good thing.
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2382. IKE
MJO....

Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I say soon we may see a yellow or orange crayon soon on that trough that is located at 55W and then 95L thereafter

Agree 55 looks ripe. yikes. better get to work now.
have a great monday everyone.
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11178
I say soon we may see a yellow or orange crayon soon on that trough that is located at 55W and then 95L thereafter
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I see the Carribean will become the next theater of cyclogenisis. Although GFS features a storm traversing the east coast of Florida it is still too far out for credence.
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Quoting whepton3:
correction... 70W 15N... had the coordinates backwards... if one was at 70N that would be a talker!


It would. Tropical cyclogenesis just north of Iceland. That would put the poles melting into a different light.

--

It also seems that Karl has done less damage to Mexico than Alex did. Seems less fatalities as well. While every life taken and every livelihood destroyed is a tragedy, it is good to see that, at least provisionally, that the storm was not as bad as feared.
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AN EMBEDDED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS TO THE W ALONG 15N57W TO 9N54W ENHANCING SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION FROM 9N-17N BETWEEN 51W-59W.

CIMSSVorticityMap
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11178
Quoting scott39:
Ike, Once a TC forms do local forecasters go more off what the NHC forecasts, or do they differ sometimes? Does that difference ever show a big discrepancy in favor of the local forecast? I know the NHC is the Gold Standard in TC forecasting. I was Wondering, based on your experience?


most around here seem to stick to the NHC forecast while possibly dropping subtle hints. I don't think the station's want any part of broadcasting something in conflict with the NHC.
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Good morning...there's this,



and there's this.

Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11178
2374. IKE
They usually go by what the NHC says, from what I've read in the discussions.
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correction... 70W 15N... had the coordinates backwards... if one was at 70N that would be a talker!
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2372. scott39
Ike, Once a TC forms do local forecasters go more off what the NHC forecasts, or do they differ sometimes? Does that difference ever show a big discrepancy in favor of the local forecast? I know the NHC is the Gold Standard in TC forecasting. I was Wondering, based on your experience?
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Here's some buoy info from one right under that mess at around 70N 15W:

Station 42059
NDBC
Location: 15.054N 67.472W
Conditions as of:
Mon, 20 Sep 2010 11:50:00 UTC
Winds: WSW (240°) at 19.4 kt gusting to 23.3 kt
Significant Wave Height: 3.9 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 13 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.88 in and rising
Air Temperature: 81.3 F
Dew Point: 74.8 F
Water Temperature: 86.5 F
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In fact, that run has the projected storm swerving so much all over the place. So much so, the storm could be arrested for DUI.

Too much Caribbean rum.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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