A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting StormHype:


Not sure, but seems like he was acting hostile and weird last 10 days. Maybe he needed to spend some time away from the computer.


No, it was the trolls on here who were acting hostile and weird towards him.
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wow, bermuda sure got lucky!

How do I get the comment section to go back to the way it was before I clicked on "rich text format" or whatever it was?
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Quoting Prgal:


He was permanently banned for posting the address of his new site. It all happened mostly for 2 reasons: he mentioned the term "pumping the ridge" and of course people jumped on him; and second, because he was talking about a pattern change and again, people jumped at him.
I personally find it hard to believe pple jumping on him for those two things were enough to cause him to either be permanently banned OR decide to move to another blog site. Furthermore, I heard it got a lot more "down and dirty" in here before it was all over. Way to clean it up for the masses. [I'm glad I wasn't around for the carnage.]

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Hello to the Blog!Dropped in for a sec and see some great info.Lotta links and images.Thanks for sharing.Gonna check the Bermuda cam now.Glad Igor is on the wane for our neighbors there.Hope its back on now.I couldn't get on awhile ago.Anyway thanks again ya'll.
Moe
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Quoting pottery:

Yr last word was totally unwarranted, man.
What I do know is this...
The guy was told by the Blog Admin that his "attitude" to certain other bloggers on the comments here, was wrong, and they advised that he cool it.
He responded with "attitude" to the Admin.
They closed him down.
Did they have any choice?

And this Blog IS a business...


++++++
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Quoting zoomiami:


Sure, sure -- likely story. SWMBO probably had you ready to be bear food.

Seriously, beautiful country up there, and no hurricanes to worry about. Do you have the equal of N'easters in that area?



We get the equivalent to hurricanes up here. Normally we just say its windy with rain, and it really fouls up your tee times :)
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1560. pottery
Quoting truecajun:


not really. it's a blog not a business. and with a business, if you wanted to take it elsewhere, you would know where to go. you can't HIDE the competition. the dynamics of this blog would be really hard for anyone to start up elsewhere. it wouldn't be a "business risk" for Dr. M to say where he went. you get with reality, aHOLE

Yr last word was totally unwarranted, man.
What I do know is this...
The guy was told by the Blog Admin that his "attitude" to certain other bloggers on the comments here, was wrong, and they advised that he cool it.
He responded with "attitude" to the Admin.
They closed him down.
Did they have any choice?

And this Blog IS a business...
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Quoting CaribBoy:
What happened to StormW?


Not sure, but seems like he was acting hostile and weird last 10 days. Maybe he needed to spend some time away from the computer.
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1558. Prgal
Quoting anyotherliestotell:
people die in rip currents with 20 mph winds here. one person dying is not a big "news" story especially when it's someone not acting with due prudence. it's about as "sad" as ANYONE dying anywhere for any reason on any given day. face it this is no big deal OVERALL as a storm and Dr. Masters said they have the best structures IN THE WORLD that are elevated and 1-2 stories for the most part.


This is what I was talking about...loss of values and humanity.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


I thought about catching him... but SWMBO says two dogs are enough so I let him go.
(mind you, she was ticked when I tried to use her as bait)


Sure, sure -- likely story. SWMBO probably had you ready to be bear food.

Seriously, beautiful country up there, and no hurricanes to worry about. Do you have the equal of N'easters in that area?

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Quoting truecajun:


not really. it's a blog not a business.


Yeah... right. LOL
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1554. mbjjm
winds have shifted to the Se in Bermuda
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Quoting atmoaggie:
You've been reading those? I just went put the blinders on whenever I see anything like that and skip the rest of the post...

Well it's not the first time today and he puts in enough "corect-sounding" terminology to confuse those who don't know better ... and when no one responds because they either think he's joking or they just ignore it, he starts complaining and posting more stuff that could confuse more people and on and on ... Im not attacking him personally because Im not sure he's trolling ... he hasnt seemed very demeaning ... but at the same time this type of commentary is dangerous (maybe not for this particular event given it's location, but you see what I'm saying..)
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1548. mbjjm
963mb in Bermuda
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BAMM and GFS shift west
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Quoting CaribBoy:
What happened to StormW?

He got trashed here one day last week and got his feelings hurt. It got a little ugly here for awhile, but nothing that the filter couldn't fix. He's posting his forecasts some place, but I haven't looked at his boards yet. He gave out his e-mail addy., for the link to it.
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1545. skook
Anyone esle think 94l is gonna pump the ridge and head west..? ....
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Quoting truecajun:


yeah. i know, but i saw a few "only lawn chairs have blown about" etc. type comments. just saying. it's a lot better than what we all expected, but he's still going to be a pain in the you know what.


There are a couple of would-be comedians here who break out that particular bit of lame and tired "humor" every time a storm turns out not to cause catastrophic damage. "Saw on the news that a few lawn chairs were overturned" or "I hear one homeowner's going to have to rake his leaves back into a pile" hyuk-hyuk-hyuk. Just ignore 'em; those kind of people are usually either insensitive or ignorant, and there's no way they'll ever "get it" until they grow up a bit. ;-)
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13571
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Both the CMC and the GFS Take a Hurricane Into South Florida then up the east coast:

GFS:



CMC:



Some linkage to see the models, please??
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Quoting mbjjm:
Can someone be banned from their own blog?
Stormw wunderblog


If you were banned from WU, you wouldn't be able to access your blog, would you?
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1539. JLPR2
Quoting atmoaggie:
Yeah. So why, then would BAMD still have a full westward tendency...that doesn't make sense without solid ridging.


Exactly
Maybe it thinks a ridge will form? :\
Something is fishy with the 00z Bam run.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8735
Quoting CaribBoy:
What happened to StormW?
he is no longer with WU
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Quoting JLPR2:


The BAM suite changed towards the west as the rest of the models shift northward...
*Scratches head*
All the models will shift west or left
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Quoting SouthALWX:
Ive remained quiet for the majority of the day ... but had to interject when 94L/"Lisa" is being referred to as a major hurricane. Not even close. I dont even know where to begin to dismiss your claims? I feel silly for pointing anything out as it seems ... obvious? Ill start with Ascat .. move to ADT ... and follow up with a little low level cloud motion ... and finally finish up with a "well just look at it bro" ...This isnt a major. This isnt even a hurricane. And by all odds is likely not even above a 50 knot TS at best.
You've been reading those? I just went put the blinders on whenever I see anything like that and skip the rest of the post...
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1535. JLPR2
Quoting SouthALWX:
Ive remained quiet for the majority of the day ... but had to interject when 94L/"Lisa" is being referred to as a major hurricane. Not even close. I dont even know where to begin to dismiss your claims? I feel silly for pointing anything out as it seems ... obvious? Ill start with Ascat .. move to ADT ... and follow up with a little low level cloud motion ... and finally finish up with a "well just look at it bro" ...This isnt a major. This isnt even a hurricane. And by all odds is likely not even above a 50 knot TS at best.


XD Yeah I agree, it needs to work hard tonight if it wants to be a TD.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8735

Quoting pilotguy1:


Are there any black helicopters in the video?

Not that one but I'm not taking off my tinfoil hat.




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What happened to StormW?
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Quoting truecajun:


yeah. i know, but i saw a few "only lawn chairs have blown about" etc. type comments. just saying. it's a lot better than what we all expected, but he's still going to be a pain in the you know what.
the lawn chairs were this morning.... obviously that blogger hasn't read more recent reports.... :o)

But I see what u r sayin'....
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Quoting zoomiami:
Almost fall like - high of only 89, humidity about 10% lower -- very nice (for those of who have lived with the lows being 85 for the past 3 months)

No rain for the past two days--that's ok with me, the mosquitos are getting old.

Love the pic of the fish and the bear. You caught that in the river?


I thought about catching him... but SWMBO says two dogs are enough so I let him go.
(mind you, she was ticked when I tried to use her as bait)
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Good evening! Hurricane is pounding Bermuda!! It's going to be a close direct hit
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Quoting JLPR2:


Seeing the Shallow, Medium and Deep Bam sending the storm in the same direction is weird as those three indicate the motion of the storm depending on how strong it is, but it is a statistical model so yeah... XD
All the dynamic models move it to the NW.
Yeah. So why, then would BAMD still have a full westward tendency...that doesn't make sense without solid ridging.
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Quoting KEHCharleston:
Coastal South Carolina wave heights
Has this peaked at 8.5? Still need to keep out of the water.

Buoy Station 41004 (LLNR 825) - EDISTO -
41 NM Southeast of Charleston
Lat:32.501 Lng:-79.099




This is a little off, it seems to me. Unless for some reason, meteors are falling all over the Atlantic. I've been in the water half a day. I saw maybe one or two 8'. There was very little rip current, ideal sets. Best day in awhile. It died down about an hour before sunset.
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Just got on. What is anybody's take on that disturbed whether in the Eastern Caribbean left over from Igor. Also, when is that kelvin wave suppose to displace the Venezuelan low into the Caribbean and how does that correspond to the possible development in the Caribbean. Sorry for all the questions, haven't been on for a day.
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Quoting mbjjm:
Can someone be banned from their own blog?


Of course they can. If a blog resides on someone else's server, whoever writes that blog can certainly be banned.
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1523. Prgal
Quoting BahaHurican:
Who? JFlorida? He's on here all the time.

I'm sorry I didn't respond. I did read the news article about it...


Its ok, but it hurt that nobody seemed to care about a woman losing her life because of Igor. Some people have lost their humanity.
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Ive remained quiet for the majority of the day ... but had to interject when 94L/"Lisa" is being referred to as a major hurricane. Not even close. I dont even know where to begin to dismiss your claims? I feel silly for pointing anything out as it seems ... obvious? Ill start with Ascat .. move to ADT ... and follow up with a little low level cloud motion ... and finally finish up with a "well just look at it bro" ...This isnt a major. This isnt even a hurricane. And by all odds is likely not even above a 50 knot TS at best.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
There are 23,600 customers out of 35,000 without power.

Source: BDA Sun


A year or so back, we had a pretty rough tornado go through northern Arkansas. That area is heavily rural & has many smallish electrical co-ops, rather than big corporations.

One of those co-ops, with about 15,000 meters I believe, had every single home but ONE out of power. Not kidding a bit. I was watching their real-time outage site when that figure popped up. Every line, street, & community went "red", except for one little solitary home all by itself. :)
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1520. JRRP
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.