A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

Share this Blog
0
+

Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1620 - 1570

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

Quoting JLPR2:
Could you all just Can it! :\
StormW is not longer part of WU so what's up with this ridiculous discussion?

No, Dr. Masters shouldn't advertise where he went, Storm had a featured blog spot which was gracefully given to him by Dr. M and now he suddenly leaves and wants to take Wu members with him? How do you think Dr. M feels about that?
StormW was free to leave but he could have just left the main blog no?
He is gone, deal with the loss and let us breathe!
Had to say that, this is getting ridiculous, I'm even seeing regulars insulting regulars, no trolls anymore.

Also...

Anyone got the link to the Bermuda webcam? I know it is a few pages back but I dont want to look thru so many posts. xD


Amen!!....evening JLPR2!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1618. Prgal
Ayayayay, there is a Hurricane about to enter Bermuda...anyone interested about that?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Oh...and as for StormW (and this will be my ONE and ONLY take on this):

I'm sorry to see him gone myself, his forecasting was valuable and a refreshing change of pace here.

On the other hand, though, this is Dr. Jeff Masters' blog, and if you tick him off too much by not playing to his rules, he, like most other blogmasters, reserves the right to kick you out for whatever reason...fair or unfair. I haven't seen enough to make a personal comment on whether StormW crossed the line or not; but that's neither here nor there....he's not here and that's all that matters.

If you like him, then go to his new blog and show him. Otherwise, may we move on and get back to what we are here for in the first place...like, you know, monitoring the weather??


Anthony

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting pottery:

Sorry. I just assumed.....
And sorry about all my previous ugly posts.
????
Maybe it was your avatar...I printed one out and put it on the mantle, no roaches for the last 2 years.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1613. flsky
Quoting Prgal:


No, he got banned for posting the link of his new blog. He started the blog because of all the drama here about pumping the ridge, tracks and patters.

Much, much more than that ... and this goes WAY back.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormJunkie:
Evening all. Done with school work for the night. Have the Nogaps, Euro, and Ukmets been posted yet and are they all still showing activity in the Carib sometime in the next 10 days?

'

About the only thing you said that contains any truth to it is the linking to his new blog. It was not "pumping the ridge" or him talking about a pattern change. Which has been talked about for two months now. It was because of his constant "poof" posts (what kind of featured blooger feels the need to post "poof") and his general disrespect for the community and Dr M. It also did not help that he claimed to be "better than the NHC" and he would LOL at forecast tracks & models. His need to have his ego stroked non stop didn't help either. Certainly disagreeing with him was a real bad idea, cause one must be stupid to disagree with him. This is the second time that he acted inappropriately on this site and it was time for him to move on if he couldn't handle it here. No one ran him off, he ran himself off.

Hi SJ...like rice at a wedding! lol...still seems likely that something will kick off in the carribean of GOM but I don't need a model to make that prediction.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormJunkie:
Evening all. Done with school work for the night. Have the Nogaps, Euro, and Ukmets been posted yet and are they all still showing activity in the Carib sometime in the next 10 days?

'

About the only thing you said that contains any truth to it is the linking to his new blog. It was not "pumping the ridge" or him talking about a pattern change. Which has been talked about for two months now. It was because of his constant "poof" posts (what kind of featured blooger feels the need to post "poof") and his general disrespect for the community and Dr M. It also did not help that he claimed to be "better than the NHC" and he would LOL at forecast tracks & models. His need to have his ego stroked non stop didn't help either. Certainly disagreeing with him was a real bad idea, cause one must be stupid to disagree with him. This is the second time that he acted inappropriately on this site and it was time for him to move on if he couldn't handle it here. No one ran him off, he ran himself off.



SJ... probably one of your best posts to date.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormJunkie:
Evening all. Done with school work for the night. Have the Nogaps, Euro, and Ukmets been posted yet and are they all still showing activity in the Carib sometime in the next 10 days?

'

About the only thing you said that contains any truth to it is the linking to his new blog. It was not "pumping the ridge" or him talking about a pattern change. Which has been talked about for two months now. It was because of his constant "poof" posts (what kind of featured blooger feels the need to post "poof") and his general disrespect for the community and Dr M. It also did not help that he claimed to be "better than the NHC" and he would LOL at forecast tracks & models. His need to have his ego stroked non stop didn't help either. Certainly disagreeing with him was a real bad idea, cause one must be stupid to disagree with him. This is the second time that he acted inappropriately on this site and it was time for him to move on if he couldn't handle it here. No one ran him off, he ran himself off.



Agreed, and it should have been done with more grace, sometimes things need to change, just a natural part of life.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1606. JLPR2
Could you all just Can it! :\
StormW is not longer part of WU so what's up with this ridiculous discussion?

No, Dr. Masters shouldn't advertise where he went, Storm had a featured blog spot which was gracefully given to him by Dr. M and now he suddenly leaves and wants to take Wu members with him? How do you think Dr. M feels about that?
StormW was free to leave but he could have just left the main blog no?
He is gone, deal with the loss and let us breathe!
Had to say that, this is getting ridiculous, I'm even seeing regulars insulting regulars, no trolls anymore.

Also...

Anyone got the link to the Bermuda webcam? I know it is a few pages back but I dont want to look thru so many posts. xD
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting yonzabam:


No, it was the trolls on here who were acting hostile and weird towards him.


Well its a little more than that. Its as if there are two opposing sides on this blog. The two sides really do not like each other. I was even on here one time last week and people from either side kept on reporting each other on every comment even the legitimate ones. That's why I rather be an observer here occasionally posting but not develop any friendships here. They seem to sour quite fast on this blog. I've even got nasty e-mails from different people about legitimate things that I have posted on here.The nerve of some people sometimes.But the two opposing sides is a reality here:0

Anyways back to the weather.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1602. mbjjm
Bermuda about to enter Igor eye
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting notverylikely:
...


By the way... Member Since: September 13, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 33 means you outed yourself with post 1576.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Evening all. Done with school work for the night. Have the Nogaps, Euro, and Ukmets been posted yet and are they all still showing activity in the Carib sometime in the next 10 days?

Quoting Prgal:


He was permanently banned for posting the address of his new site. It all happened mostly for 2 reasons: he mentioned the term "pumping the ridge" and of course people jumped on him; and second, because he was talking about a pattern change and again, people jumped at him.
'

About the only thing you said that contains any truth to it is the linking to his new blog. It was not "pumping the ridge" or him talking about a pattern change. Which has been talked about for two months now. It was because of his constant "poof" posts (what kind of featured blooger feels the need to post "poof") and his general disrespect for the community and Dr M. It also did not help that he claimed to be "better than the NHC" and he would LOL at forecast tracks & models. His need to have his ego stroked non stop didn't help either. Certainly disagreeing with him was a real bad idea, cause one must be stupid to disagree with him. This is the second time that he acted inappropriately on this site and it was time for him to move on if he couldn't handle it here. No one ran him off, he ran himself off.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1599. pottery
Quoting truecajun:


the only responses i have ever received from you were ugly ones. so i called you what seem to me. btw, i am a woman, not a man.

Sorry. I just assumed.....
And sorry about all my previous ugly posts.
????
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormHype:


Not sure, but seems like he was acting hostile and weird last 10 days. Maybe he needed to spend some time away from the computer.


Oh.. I see =S
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Chicklit:
wow, bermuda sure got lucky!

How do I get the comment section to go back to the way it was before I clicked on "rich text format" or whatever it was?
Ah... got u too? lol I got out of it by going to settings and clicking restore defaults. A refresh of the blog should take u back to the original format. I've been told there's a plain text button too, but I sure didn't see one... lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22081
Quoting CaptnDan142:
I find it rather odd that a particular blogger could often go hours in an evening without posting anything, and rarely did anyone ask where he was... But recently, it seems that a new trend is developing.

If I were of a suspicious mind, I would think maybe there was some kind of organized trolling going on.


It's beem going on for some days. They organised a concerted attack on StormW and he left.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
thanks! for the instructions.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting skook:



such dry air over Fl.. it sure has been feeling nice out at night.
Grrr. Not here! (SE LA)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CaptnDan142:
I find it rather odd that a particular blogger could often go hours in an evening without posting anything, and rarely did anyone ask where he was... But recently, it seems that a new trend is developing.

If I were of a suspicious mind, I would think maybe there was some kind of organized trolling going on.


gee you think??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting skook:
Anyone esle think 94l is gonna pump the ridge and head west..? ....


"Pumping the ridge" is highly overrated, in my view...except for extremely powerful Cat 4-5 hurricanes. A mere invest or TS simply can't by itself undercut or reverse overall wind patterns the same way an Andrew or a Wilma can...and even the latter can't overpower monster trofs...otherwise, Wilma would have ended up in Louisiana rather than Florida. Not even Katrina, which blew up in the GoM to near "Cat 6" proportions was able to "pump" the ridge that much to keep from recurving.

I'm no meteorologist, mind you, but I've seen plenty of storms.

Anthony

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
wow...if someone had told me that somebody would 'go there', I would have thought that it would not be very likely...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1586. skook
Quoting atmoaggie:
Hey, look, a tropical system or 4.



Now back to your regularly scheduled primary topic.



such dry air over Fl.. it sure has been feeling nice out at night.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormHype:


This isn't really a blog. It's a chat room. Been that way for YEARS now.
Immediately above the panel that you used to enter your comment are the links

Start a Weather Chat!

Start a Tropics Chat!

This is not a chat room!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1581. Prgal
1576: That's uncalled for.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1580. papla
Quoting Chicklit:
wow, bermuda sure got lucky!

How do I get the comment section to go back to the way it was before I clicked on "rich text format" or whatever it was?


Chicklit....down on the bottom of the page where you clicked "rich text" it should now say "plain text" click back
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I find it rather odd that a particular blogger could often go hours in an evening without posting anything, and rarely did anyone ask where he was... But recently, it seems that a new trend is developing.

If I were of a suspicious mind, I would think maybe there was some kind of organized trolling going on.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Hey, look, a tropical system or 4.



Now back to your regularly scheduled primary topic.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1574. mbjjm
Quoting Chicklit:
wow, bermuda sure got lucky!

How do I get the comment section to go back to the way it was before I clicked on "rich text format" or whatever it was?

sign out , close your browser, open your browser and sign back in
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1573. LBAR
My last post didnt' post...

Does anyone know why the NHC is all of a sudden discussing the monsoonal trough off the coast of west Africa?

I have never seem them discuss it until this year. I have seen it analyzed on the surface map, but they've never included it in the discussion. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting notverylikely:


of course WU is a business, you simpleton


I understand that it's an internet business, but it's not the same as a physical business with the competition down the street. Walgreen's can't HIDE RiteAid. It's ridiculous. Just announce where he went. He used to praise his work in his updates. Dr. Master announcing where StormW went would NOT hurt WU.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1571. Prgal
Quoting BahaHurican:
I personally find it hard to believe pple jumping on him for those two things were enough to cause him to either be permanently banned OR decide to move to another blog site. Furthermore, I heard it got a lot more "down and dirty" in here before it was all over. Way to clean it up for the masses. [I'm glad I wasn't around for the carnage.]



It was bad and a few other things happened but I guess some people here had an ego trip...I am not sure. All I know is that I am happy admin is cleaning the blog now because I like it better when you can learn from the posts. There is no need to attack others.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1620 - 1570

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Mostly Cloudy
59 °F
Mostly Cloudy