A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Chicklit:
I signed out and in and still it has the rich text format...shessh. what now?


The place you clicked for Rich Text should now say Plain Text, which will get you back.
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1669. pottery
Quoting PcolaDan:
Thicker skin is on the third isle, top shelf.
Chips on the shoulder are on back order, didn't order enough.
Blog courtesy, no longer available.

LOL to that...
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Bermuda web cam.
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At L.F.Wade Int. Airport
Recorded at 11:22 pm
Rain
Temp.: 26°C/78°F
Humidity: 95%
Wind: SSE 59G81 kt
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1666. LBAR
Thank you! :D
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jeff masters and the weather underground are NOT the bad guys here...the guy was given a second chance after a VERY serious infraction and he blew it
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if you have rich Text and want too go back too plain text  this hit it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Oh, never mind.
,
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Quoting traumaboyy:


ROFL....evening sir!!
You're early!
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1660. JLPR2
Quoting PcolaDan:
Thicker skin is on the third isle, top shelf.
Chips on the shoulder are on back order, didn't order enough.
Blog courtesy, no longer available.


We ran out of that, sorry! LOL!
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting LBAR:
I'm gonna ask again...hopefully everyone has moved past whatever was going on because I've always come here to learn new things and that ain't happenin' right now. Ugh.

Why has the NHC found it necessary include the monsoonal troughs in this year's discussions? What is the purpose of this? Does anyone know why it would be perceived to be important information? I don't recall them discussing it before, although I have seen it analyzed on the surface maps. Maybe it's just me, but I notice when things are different in the NHC's posts.


The best person to ask is levi32, he noticed it months ago and did a big write up explaining it.
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1656. Prgal
Quoting Chicklit:
I signed out and in and still it has the rich text format...shessh. what now?


Chcklit, someone said the other day that you needed to press Rich Text again. I am not sure that it works tho.
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1655. help4u
Storm junkie is right about how Storm w acted.He was very strange but a good forcaster,his loss.
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Quoting Chicklit:
I signed out and in and still it has the rich text format...shessh. what now?
Try the standard thing.
Restart computer.
Clear cache.
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Thicker skin is on the third isle, top shelf.
Chips on the shoulder are on back order, didn't order enough.
Blog courtesy, no longer available.
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Ehh, that some will want to see it that missed it earlier. And, updated, of course.

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1650. LBAR
I'm gonna ask again...hopefully everyone has moved past whatever was going on because I've always come here to learn new things and that ain't happenin' right now. Ugh.

Why has the NHC found it necessary include the monsoonal troughs in this year's discussions? What is the purpose of this? Does anyone know why it would be perceived to be important information? I don't recall them discussing it before, although I have seen it analyzed on the surface maps. Maybe it's just me, but I notice when things are different in the NHC's posts.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Which leads me to ask if anybody is noticing any thing.... missing.... off this 18Z analysis....



No ITCZ??
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I signed out and in and still it has the rich text format...shessh. what now?
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1647. Prgal
Quoting JLPR2:


Thank you!


A la orden siempre!
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Quoting pottery:

Ah!
Thanks for clearing that up.
Whew...

I thought that I had somehow offended the Lady.
(sry, had to)
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Quoting Prgal:


Its not my intention to start an argument. I was just answering a question and I tell it the way I see it. This is your point of view and I respectfully disagree with you. A few of you have ego trips also and a few were drinking (assuming that what was written by them was correct).

You all need to learn about respect and tolerance.


+1000, my post earlier explains a lot about some people on this forum:0
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Quoting JLPR2:


The ITCZ took a vacation. XD LOL




ah ah ah looooool 
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting pottery:

YIKES!!
"They" have stolen the ITCZ>>>


ROFL....evening sir!!
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:
Dude...you are on a roll! lol!













thanks
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
1640. JLPR2
Quoting BahaHurican:
Which leads me to ask if anybody is noticing any thing.... missing.... off this 18Z analysis....



The ITCZ took a vacation. XD LOL
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1638. pottery
Quoting BahaHurican:
Which leads me to ask if anybody is noticing any thing.... missing.... off this 18Z analysis....


YIKES!!
"They" have stolen the ITCZ>>>
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1634. JLPR2
Quoting Prgal:


Saludos! Here you go. Link


Thank you!
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1633. JLPR2
Quoting Prgal:


Well said. Bermuda? Anyone?


I asked for the webcam but no one have it.

Quoting traumaboyy:


Amen!!....evening JLPR2!!


Evening! :D
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1631. Prgal
Quoting JLPR2:
Could you all just Can it! :\
StormW is not longer part of WU so what's up with this ridiculous discussion?

No, Dr. Masters shouldn't advertise where he went, Storm had a featured blog spot which was gracefully given to him by Dr. M and now he suddenly leaves and wants to take Wu members with him? How do you think Dr. M feels about that?
StormW was free to leave but he could have just left the main blog no?
He is gone, deal with the loss and let us breathe!
Had to say that, this is getting ridiculous, I'm even seeing regulars insulting regulars, no trolls anymore.

Also...

Anyone got the link to the Bermuda webcam? I know it is a few pages back but I dont want to look thru so many posts. xD


Saludos! Here you go. Link
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Wux up peeps??
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Quoting LBAR:
My last post didnt' post...

Does anyone know why the NHC is all of a sudden discussing the monsoonal trough off the coast of west Africa?

I have never seem them discuss it until this year. I have seen it analyzed on the surface map, but they've never included it in the discussion. Feel free to correct me if I'm wrong.
Which leads me to ask if anybody is noticing any thing.... missing.... off this 18Z analysis....

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22728
1624. Prgal
Quoting AnthonyJKenn:
Oh...and as for StormW (and this will be my ONE and ONLY take on this):

I'm sorry to see him gone myself, his forecasting was valuable and a refreshing change of pace here.

On the other hand, though, this is Dr. Jeff Masters' blog, and if you tick him off too much by not playing to his rules, he, like most other blogmasters, reserves the right to kick you out for whatever reason...fair or unfair. I haven't seen enough to make a personal comment on whether StormW crossed the line or not; but that's neither here nor there....he's not here and that's all that matters.

If you like him, then go to his new blog and show him. Otherwise, may we move on and get back to what we are here for in the first place...like, you know, monitoring the weather??


Anthony



Well said. Bermuda? Anyone?
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Quoting StormJunkie:
No one ran him off, he ran himself off.

He even had a little birdie trying to moderate between the parties involved in the original argument. Well, cannot be said that I wasn't trying to give him the chance to calm down...
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1622. pottery
Quoting atmoaggie:
Maybe it was your avatar...I printed one out and put it on the mantle, no roaches for the last 2 years.

Ah!
Thanks for clearing that up.
Whew...

I thought that I had somehow offended the Lady.
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That little tree in Bermuda is STILL hanging on. Must be rooted in bedrock. :)

The sustained wind seems to have subsided a bit, but there's still some hefty gusts coming through every minute or two.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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