A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting BahaHurican:
Ah... got u too? lol I got out of it by going to settings and clicking restore defaults. A refresh of the blog should take u back to the original format. I've been told there's a plain text button too, but I sure didn't see one... lol


Chicklet, I also had to restore default settings. These other things to click on were not available.
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Quoting Prgal:


I respectfully disagree with you too. Levi and others post links of their work and I am glad they do. I am not against it. It gives us the opportunity to read their work and that's amazing! What is not ok is to ban ones for doing it while allowing others to do it without penalty.
Respectfully, within the blog, is within the blog. Not, outside the blog. Perhaps we should be discussing the info here, rather than what is not here.
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Quoting Prgal:


I respectfully disagree with you too. Levi and others post links of their work and I am glad they do. I am not against it. It gives us the opportunity to read their work and that's amazing! What is not ok is to ban ones for doing it while allowing others to do it without penalty.


A link to an onsite blog is legit....
A link to an offsite (nonWU) is basically spamming.

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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
Part of my post was dropped. It should include: Good evening, All.


Good evening!!
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Quoting cat5hurricane:
Igor rapid scan infrared loop:

Link
Thanks for the link...and the Folly Beach one too!
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1714. JLPR2
94L looks elongated.
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1713. hydrus
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Look at the massive convection associated with the center of Igor.....not....Well I guess this is a little better the getting flailed by a 155 mph hurricane. All the doom-casters will go back to saying what a bust the 2010 Hurricane season is..
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Quoting geepy86:
Do I hear windchimes in the background?


I think that is transmission noise. You hear it on sat phones and the like.
(or ET dialing out "WHO THE HE## SENT ME TO INVESTIGATE BERMUDA????)
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Quoting JFLORIDA:


Its dark and windy - much like one would expect at night during a hurricane.


Thanks JFlorida.I couldn't get the link to the webcam I watched earlier today to work.Bandwidth change is Ok.I can handle that.
Thanks again.
Moe
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Quoting MississippiWx:
Man, this blog has gone to hell in a hand basket. You guys need to quit pressing your own agendas and get back to talking weather. At one time, this was the best weather blog on the net. Now, I'm afraid to sign in and see what's being discussed. I guess even Rome fell. It's not too late to save this blog that we (used to) love. Get it together and move on.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
1706. BDADUDE
59kts with gusts to 81kts now at the airport
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1705. Prgal
Quoting Orcasystems:


I am not that kind of guy...

Truthful response... you would get banned for promoting another website, its the rules.


I respectfully disagree with you too. Levi and others post links of their work and I am glad they do. I am not against it. It gives us the opportunity to read their work and that's amazing! What is not ok is to ban ones for doing it while allowing others to do it without penalty.
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1704. LeMoyne
Well was I ever wrong...

AL94 just exploded ... literally

When the 3-way arm tried to attach to the the
lower level convection & the eye jumped to the end of the arm (back N to 15N 31) and the eye wall collapsed . you can see it on Funktop -- its a real light show...

Lisa down to bare bones oh but she does have those three arms one over 30o long, one out to tip of SA and one down below 5N ... again we will see - getting pix from Funktop and Visual

May take Lisa a while to get back together ...
But look at what happened, measure the speeds and tell me that was not a tropical storm/hurricane when it started. We will see tomorrow...

lol eye still may be shooting north - did you guys sic a model on Lisa ?? Central convection has shot off to 30+W16N - may get lost in the dry zone - wow

And to think this all started with three little eddies by the Cape Verdes 1800Z yesterday.

PS I was also prolly wrong about the ITCZ shearing ... moot right now... wow she exploded into pieces ... wow


Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 84
Part of my post was dropped. It should include: Good evening, All.
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Quoting Tazmanian:



so ture


Thank you for confirming my Virtue Taz..
or were you agreeing with the Ban?
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Quoting pottery:
Hi Traumaboy!
(I can never say 'Greetings, Trauma'. I fear it would jinx me)
heheheh


LMFAO!!......the handle is certainly a curse at times..
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Quoting PcolaDan:
Thicker skin is on the third isle, top shelf.
Chips on the shoulder are on back order, didn't order enough.
Blog courtesy, no longer available.


+1
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Man, this blog has gone to hell in a hand basket. You guys need to quit pressing your own agendas and get back to talking weather. At one time, this was the best weather blog on the net. Now, I'm afraid to sign in and see what's being discussed. I guess even Rome fell. It's not too late to save this blog that we (used to) love. Get it together and move on.
Member Since: July 15, 2006 Posts: 17 Comments: 10159
@ Chicklet

Quoting Chicklit:
wow, bermuda sure got lucky!

How do I get the comment section to go back to the way it was before I clicked on "rich text format" or whatever it was?
Ah... got u too? lol I got out of it by going to settings and clicking restore defaults. A refresh of the blog should take u back to the original format. I've been told there's a plain text button too, but I sure didn't see one... lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21485
Quoting ElConando:
I heard there is a Hurricane named Igor and its being really mean to Bermuda right now.


the problem is lack of fresh data.. whats available has been flogged to death.
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1695. JLPR2
In other weather related news, 94L is loosing convection and not getting any back.

Still has d-max to go through but yeah...
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Quoting JLPR2:


The little tree in front of the camera is doing well so far. XD

Stout little guy/gal.

(Hmmm are trees gender neutral?) I Know some of my plants aren't. I turned them over, but I couldn't tell.
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1692. Prgal
Quoting RobertM320:


Did someone talk about "weather"?


LOL, I was trying to :-P
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Chicklet, did u see my earlier post about this?
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21485
Quoting StormJunkie:


PR...Your opinion might be different had the latter portion of the handle been the opposite.

Completely hypothetical question...
How many of you would be offended/worried if I started inviting bloggers over to see my forecasting tools?


I am not that kind of guy...

Truthful response... you would get banned for promoting another website, its the rules.
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1688. geepy86
Quoting JLPR2:


The little tree in front of the camera is doing well so far. XD
Do I hear windchimes in the background?
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I heard there is a Hurricane named Igor and its being really mean to Bermuda right now.
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Hmmm, now modify doesn't take.




yes it dos lol
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Quoting Prgal:
Ayayayay, there is a Hurricane about to enter Bermuda...anyone interested about that?


Did someone talk about "weather"?
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1681. pottery
Hi Traumaboy!
(I can never say 'Greetings, Trauma'. I fear it would jinx me)
heheheh
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Hmmm, now modify doesn't take.
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i haven't developed an opinion on the whole matter, because the particulars of it don't really matter me. i actually don't really know what happened, nor do i care. i am not a "fan" of anyone in particular.

all i'm saying is that for our sake, it would be nice if dr. m just said where he went, so those that followed him will stop asking. that's all.

those of you who don't like storm, shouldn't care if dr. m tells his so called followers where he went, since you don't like his followers anyway.

it would be the polite thing to do. that's all i was trying to say.

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1677. JLPR2
Quoting PcolaDan:
Bermuda web cam.


The little tree in front of the camera is doing well so far. XD
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Quoting MercForHire:
That little tree in Bermuda is STILL hanging on. Must be rooted in bedrock. :)

The sustained wind seems to have subsided a bit, but there's still some hefty gusts coming through every minute or two.
LOL I think it's because the wind is not blowing right AT the camera just yet... seems that little tree is in the lee of the wind.... Keep it up, little tree! lots of pple out here rootin' for ya.... lol
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21485
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
You're early!


True....actually I have been at work 2 1/2 hours...not buzy right now....knock on head!!
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Quoting notverylikely:
jeff masters and the weather underground are NOT the bad guys here...the guy was given a second chance after a VERY serious infraction and he blew it


Drop it already
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Quoting skook:



such dry air over Fl.. it sure has been feeling nice out at night.
100% agreed. At last a small, but significant, break from the humidity.
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Quoting Chicklit:
I signed out and in and still it has the rich text format...shessh. what now?


The place you clicked for Rich Text should now say Plain Text, which will get you back.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.