A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Neapolitan:


Dr. Masters did the polite thing in giving Walsh a free forum--and featured blogger status--for long enough that Walsh was able to develop a following. Walsh did the impolite thing by letting his easily-bruised ego make him forget that he was a guest here at Wunderground just like the rest of us. Dr. Masters owes Walsh nothing. Walsh, on the other hand, owes Dr. Masters--and, in fact, the whole forum--two things: A) an apology, and B) a thank you. In the meantime: if you want to read Walsh's stuff, visit his site. If you want to read Dr. Masters' stuff, stay on this site. And if you want to do both, do it. Just please--pretty please, with cherries on top--stop the infantile junior-high level back and forth drama.


your post is more junior high than anything i ever said. you have all the passion and anger and opinion in your post. i said something very simple without stating anything FOR or AGAINST anyone, and i'm being called junior high???

i don't get it. also, tonight is the FIRST time i even commented on the whole issue, and I've been on here every day for the past week as all of this went down.

i AM trying to talk about the weather, and got annoyed by every other post being "where is stormW", so I finally said what i thought dr. m should do, so we could all get back to the ding dong weather, without being interrupted by "where is StormW?" every other post.

my goodness, some of you people are ruthless.
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1769. DDR
Quoting JRRP:

Interesting...
First was the gfs,then the nogaps and now the nam.
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GOES-15:



On a side note, when does GOES-15 become operational? Not for a while, right?
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Quoting cat5hurricane:
Patrap told me to use Firefox & it was the best thing I did. Never had a problem since. You probably tried that already...but just to give you a head up in case.
I've been using FireFox for a couple of years now! I like it a lot more than Internet Explorer. I haven't had as many problems with viruses either.
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Quoting 1900hurricane:

Probably surge, as rainfall in Bermuda hasn't been all that terribly impressive.


Yes I think you're right
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Quoting PcolaDan:

Don't take it as being a target. As you are entitled to an opinion, so are others. From what I have read of yours, it has been done respectfully.

Except for the sexist remark made by StormJunkie aimed at her. I'm surprised that didn't get flagged:0
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1762. hydrus
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Yeeeaahhhh...I hear that. lol. He may look like garbage, but we'll take it. EWRC's might of really doomed our friend Igor at the wrong time to knock him down to a cat 1, but he's still packing TS force winds 345mi from the center. That's a pretty formidable storm surge to deal with along a LONG time w/ TS force winds. Not to mention some pretty severe beach erosion.
I am by no means calling Igor a weak storm...The winds have dropped by more than half...To the relief of many i,m sure....Looks like an imploded smurf.
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removed re:1777
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Quoting RobertM320:


Someone mentioned that the other day. It seems after all the buildup and tracking is done, and there's nothing except landfall, people lose interest, especially if its not on the CONUS. And what's out there still brewing, is taking its good old time. My guess is, they want the stage to themselves, and are waiting for Igor to finish his dance.
Again, part of that is data availability. In the US there are literally thousands of Wunderbloggers; in other locations, not so many. Sometimes getting the on-the-spot data u want isn't possible. Plus for the most part US radar coverage of the coastline is far superior to what's available elsewhere in the basin.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21592
1758. pottery
Quoting BDADUDE:
Not many planes flying around here tonight!!

And if they were on the ground, they may be flying around soon enough.
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http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/nam/00/images/nam_pcp_078m.gif
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Bernews.com BELCO reports approx 23,600 [66% of island] is without power as of 10pm, and that number is likely to increase through the night
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1753. JRRP
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Quoting Prgal:
Ok, I got in to read about Igor and too bad I followed the impulse to answer someone's question a while ago. Now I am the target.

Take your guns and aim it somewhere else. I am entitled to my opinion and the freedom to express it. I expect people to respect me the way I respect all of you.

Igor people!
My advice to you! Keep moving, keep ducking, you'll be fine!
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Quoting CaribBoy:


Is that the storm surge? or the rain?

Probably surge, as rainfall in Bermuda hasn't been all that terribly impressive.
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Quoting Prgal:
Ok, I got in to read about Igor and too bad I followed the impulse to answer someone's question a while ago. Now I am the target.

Take your guns and aim it somewhere else. I am entitled to my opinion and the freedom to express it. I expect people to respect me the way I respect all of you.

Igor people!


That's the reality in this blog...Unfortunately.
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1746. will40
Link

everyone needs to read the rules. I think some would be surprised
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1745. JLPR2
.CENTER OF HURRICANE IGOR PASSING JUST WEST OF BERMUDA...93 MPH
WIND GUST REPORTED ON THE ISLAND...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...32.4N 65.5W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM W OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 15 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8519
Quoting BDADUDE:
Not many planes flying around here tonight!!

What, no sense of adventure? LOL
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Quoting geepy86:
Do I hear windchimes in the background?

If anyone was watching it earlier today, the cam was on a small harbor with a sailboat in it.  Watching it back then, it almost sounded like the lines slapping against the boat's mast.  That sailboat was sure getting swung around on it's mooring. 

When night fell, he switched the camera over to the trees/yard.

Sounds like a squeaky shutter or pole or something?

edit:  yeah, could be transmission noise too!
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1741. GBguy88
Bermuda now experiencing wind gusts of 90+. Not too shabby...
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1740. BDADUDE
Quoting hydrus:
That is bad...81-kts can throw aircraft around.
Not many planes flying around here tonight!!
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Quoting JFLORIDA:

St George's Town Square is transforming into a swimming pool


Is that the storm surge? or the rain?
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sooo, what is the latest forecast for the possible storm in the Gulf?
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Quoting anyotherliestotell:


sounds like you are the troll to me. you've been scooped. move on.


Grow up. He's been on this blog for a lot longer than you.
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1736. Prgal
Ok, I got in to read about Igor and too bad I followed the impulse to answer someone's question a while ago. Now I am the target.

Take your guns and aim it somewhere else. I am entitled to my opinion and the freedom to express it. I expect people to respect me the way I respect all of you.

Igor people!
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1735. BDADUDE
Quoting mbjjm:

that is the same as 93 mph / 150 km/h / 41.7 m/s
cool
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Well, only if you include a picture of your tractor.


A+ Atmo :)
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15835
Quoting truecajun:
all i'm saying is that for our sake, it would be nice if dr. m just said where he went, so those that followed him will stop asking. that's all.

those of you who don't like storm, shouldn't care if dr. m tells his so called followers where he went, since you don't like his followers anyway.

it would be the polite thing to do. that's all i was trying to say.



Dr. Masters did the polite thing in giving Walsh a free forum--and featured blogger status--for long enough that Walsh was able to develop a following. Walsh did the impolite thing by letting his easily-bruised ego make him forget that he was a guest here at Wunderground just like the rest of us. Dr. Masters owes Walsh nothing. Walsh, on the other hand, owes Dr. Masters--and, in fact, the whole forum--two things: A) an apology, and B) a thank you. In the meantime: if you want to read Walsh's stuff, visit his site. If you want to read Dr. Masters' stuff, stay on this site. And if you want to do both, do it. Just please--pretty please, with cherries on top--stop the infantile junior-high level back and forth drama.
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Levi posts on a WU blog, this web site, not another site. Others I cannot speak for. IIRC TampaSpin got in trouble for that too.


Technically not true. He posts his forecast to youtube also. That's where I go when the link on the blog doesn't work. The fact that I go to a different site is still spamming.
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94L is not looking so healthy tonight. Maybe this will influence the new model runs...
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1729. hydrus
Quoting BDADUDE:
59kts with gusts to 81kts now at the airport
That is bad...81-kts can throw aircraft around.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


the problem is lack of fresh data.. whats available has been flogged to death.


Someone mentioned that the other day. It seems after all the buildup and tracking is done, and there's nothing except landfall, people lose interest, especially if its not on the CONUS. And what's out there still brewing, is taking its good old time. My guess is, they want the stage to themselves, and are waiting for Igor to finish his dance.
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1726. geepy86
Quoting PcolaDan:


I think that is transmission noise. You hear it on sat phones and the like.
(or ET dialing out "WHO THE HE## SENT ME TO INVESTIGATE BERMUDA????)
kinda creepy sounding, then.

Go tree.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
@ Chicklet

Ah... got u too? lol I got out of it by going to settings and clicking restore defaults. A refresh of the blog should take u back to the original format. I've been told there's a plain text button too, but I sure didn't see one... lol
Sorry chick and other bloggers... this keeps getting stuck at the end of a page....
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21592
I see the 3 pm to 11 pm shift is on! Brutal! I like the late shift myself, although I don't think I can stay up that late tonight!
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1723. mbjjm
Quoting BDADUDE:
59kts with gusts to 81kts now at the airport

that is the same as 93 mph / 150 km/h / 41.7 m/s
Member Since: August 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 310
Quoting Prgal:


I respectfully disagree with you too. Levi and others post links of their work and I am glad they do. I am not against it. It gives us the opportunity to read their work and that's amazing! What is not ok is to ban ones for doing it while allowing others to do it without penalty.


Levi posts on a WU blog, this web site, not another site. Others I cannot speak for. IIRC TampaSpin got in trouble for that too.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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