A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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1820. amd
Quoting hydrus:
Africa is serving up T-Waves like burgers at a fast food joint...


yeah. I'm also seeing increasing westerly shear north of 15 degrees north and east of 40 degrees west, suggesting that the CV season may be on the downswing.

East Atlantic Shear

Not to say that we will not get any more development from the cape verde region, especially if system try to develop south of 15 degrees north, but it will get harder very soon. IMO.
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1818. bassis
Quoting CycloneBoy:
what is that noise playing in the blog?


It's not Igor sing the praises of The Patriots
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1817. Prgal
Quoting StormJunkie:


That was absolutely not a sexist remark aimed at her. It was an attempt to nudge those who may not know the WHOLE story, towards the events of the past few years.


The comment sounded like a sexist remark aimed at me but its not what he meant to say. Its all good :)
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what is that noise playing in the blog?
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1815. bassis
From theCivil Air Terminal, Bermuda

11:55 PM
78.8 °F
77.0 °F
94%
28.47 in
0.5 miles
South
65.6 mph
84.0 mph

N/A Rain
Light Rain
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Weather456 did not get "run off", and well neither did the other one...but W456 has had family and family health issues to deal with from what I understand. I think all of us miss having him here to discuss the tropics with. Hope him and his family are ok. Here's to you 456.

Quoting truecajun:


i'm feeling what you are feeling. i guess we are not cool enough :(


Y'all are both cool in my book.
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Quoting StormJunkie:


That was absolutely not a sexist remark aimed at her. It was an attempt to nudge those who may not know the WHOLE story, towards the events of the past few years.


glad you cleared that up. i was a little shocked by it too. but, i get what you were trying to say now.
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1811. will40
I agree Atmo storm surge shouldnt be much of a problem.

i would think a lot of it will just go around the island
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Beat me to it!

Fastest googler(?) in the city. lol

oooooo avatarrrrr
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Quoting Prgal:


Look, I get what you are saying...but try to see what's happening. I dont take sides (not interested really), I rarely post here and when I do its because I am interested in the system or PR is threatened by a system. I came in tonight to see what was happening with Bermuda and answered a question (ohh, what a mistake).

Then I have a lot of people answering back and telling me to shut up. Why? Is there a fraternity here that only some are allowed to talk?


I responded to your question.. as did others.. I didn't see a single one telling you to shutup. I also have a very large ignore list full of trolls, so they may have? Not one response I saw was disrespectful, they just tried to point on the difference between an on-site blog, and a off-site blog (spamming).

Levi's videos are a different kettle of fish... they use Youtube, which is not a offiste Blog as per say, its more like photobucket that people use for images.
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1808. mbjjm
Magnolia Hall, Smiths Parish winds now west at 29mph
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1807. beell
Course the stealing traffic argument is a zero.
"They" are still here-upping the page hits and kicking in a bit of ad revenue for the Doc!
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Quoting NRAamy:
Post 1771.....

You made me snort....


Troublemaker :)
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Quoting mbjjm:
what happened to Weather 456 have not seeing his tropical discussions in awhile?
I've been wondering myself. I don't think it has/had anything to do with trolls. I do know that he was ill during July, then stopped posting altogether during the early part of August. I'm not sure if DOC M has contact info for him, but somehow I got the impression that he has not been well...
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21516
Quoting StormJunkie:


That was absolutely not a sexist remark aimed at her. It was an attempt to nudge those who may not know the WHOLE story, towards the events of the past few years.


Dude she took it that way..That is what started the outrage in her writing. I'm surprised you didn't notice. If you look at what you wrote, it could be misconstrued as sexist. You might want to e-mail her:0
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Quoting PcolaDan:
[lightning]

Beat me to it!
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1801. hydrus
Quoting JLPR2:


You are not getting the point, if the site is personal as if yours you will get banned, youtube doesn't count, trying to steal traffic and redirecting it to your site is not welcomed by WU admins, but you got your point of view and I respect it.

But now I'm getting off topic so I'll post a satellite image. :]

Another wave coming right up.
Africa is serving up T-Waves like burgers at a fast food joint...
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1799. MahFL
Quoting 1900hurricane:
GOES-15:On a side note, when does GOES-15 become operational? Not for a while, right?


A few years, as it's an on orbit spare.
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Quoting CaribBoy:


Is that the storm surge? or the rain?
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Probably surge, as rainfall in Bermuda hasn't been all that terribly impressive.

Ehh, low tide right now. They really *shouldn't* have any surge issues with Igor...



(But, this ob is a few hours old.)
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Quoting Prgal:


Look, I get what you are saying...but try to see what's happening. I dont take sides (not interested really), I rarely post here and when I do its because I am interested in the system or PR is threatened by a system. I came in tonight to see what was happening with Bermuda and answered a question (ohh, what a mistake).

Then I have a lot of people answering back and telling me to shut up. Why? Is there a fraternity here that only some are allowed to talk?


i'm feeling what you are feeling. i guess we are not cool enough :(
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1794. Prgal
Quoting PcolaDan:

You say you're being respectful, yet make a comment like that which implies others that don't agree with you are below average IQ's?
Guess I'll go remove my previous post.


My answer to you, kind of disappeared...dont know why. Anyway, I apologized because that was NOT my intention. I guess I used the wrong words to express an ++++ of his comment. Again, I am very sorry.
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1793. pottery
Quoting DDR:

Interesting...
First was the gfs,then the nogaps and now the nam.

Hi DDR.
Was in Cascade today when a nice SouthWesterly blew in off the Gulf.
A couple minutes of leaves blowing straight up the hillsides and over the ridge.
Nice energy.
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Quoting tomas5tex:
Ok enough is enough....The problem here on this so called blog is that there are those that can't stand to be proven wrong. When someone with the skill and experience voice their opinion those of us without the knowledge and experience should shut up, listen and learn.

So to all the trolls out there I have one question...Who is next that will be force out because you don't like what they are saying? Weather 456 and now StormW. I hope all of y'all are very proud.

Yes this is Dr. Master blog and I remember when during his post he called out both Weather 456 and StormW as feature blogger. I guess that means that you disagree with the name sake of this blog. What is y'all deal?

I don't post much but I just felt like it is something I had to say. I have always looked forward coming here and learning...Now it is worst than a playground full of inmature toddlers complaining that someone is using their crayons.

To all the Trolls....GROW UP!!!!!!!!


Of all people if they start attacking someone like Levi is when people are really getting out of hand. But fortunately (knock on wood) that hasn't happened.
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1791. BDAwx
Wind is starting to shift some more here, now from the south. Pressure has risen slightly, might be a temporary thing though...
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1790. NRAamy
Post 1771.....

You made me snort....

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1788. mbjjm
what happened to Weather 456 have not seeing his tropical discussions in awhile?
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Quoting JFLORIDA:

St George's Town Square is transforming into a swimming pool
Actually, that's kind of pretty. post #1732
Bermuda looks classy even in the midst of a hurricane.
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Quoting Grecojdw:

Except for the sexist remark made by StormJunkie aimed at her. I'm surprised that didn't get flagged:0


That was absolutely not a sexist remark aimed at her. It was an attempt to nudge those who may not know the WHOLE story, towards the events of the past few years.
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000
WTNT41 KNHC 200235
TCDAT1
HURRICANE IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 48
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
1100 PM AST SUN SEP 19 2010

THE LAST OBSERVATIONS FROM THE AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT SHOWED THAT THE CENTRAL PRESSURE WAS SLOWLY RISING AND
MAXIMUM FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS HAD DECREASED TO 68 KT. THERE WERE A
FEW SFMR-OBSERVED SURFACE WINDS OF 65 TO 69 KT ABOUT 90 N MI TO THE
SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER BUT MOST OF THESE WERE FLAGGED AS
QUESTIONABLE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS SET AT 65 KT...WHICH IS
REMARKABLY LOW FOR THE ESTIMATED CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 955 MB. NOT
MUCH ADDITIONAL WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
BY 36 HOURS...THE GFS SHOWS WELL-DEFINED THERMAL ADVECTION WITHIN
THE CIRCULATION AND THEREFORE IGOR IS LIKELY TO HAVE BEEN
TRANSFORMED INTO A VIGOROUS EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AROUND THAT TIME.

THE LATEST CENTER FIXES INDICATE THAT THE TRACK IS BEGINNING TO
BEND TO THE RIGHT AND THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED TO BE 015/12.
NOT MUCH CHANGE IS MADE TO THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK FOR THE NEXT
24 TO 36 HOURS. IGOR IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD ON MONDAY
AND ACCELERATE AHEAD OF A DEEP-LAYER TROUGH MOVING EASTWARD FROM
THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. AND THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. IN THE LATTER HALF
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...POST-TROPICAL IGOR IS LIKELY TO TURN BACK
TO THE NORTH AND NORTH-NORTHWEST AS IT INTERACTS WITH ANOTHER
EXTRATROPICAL CYCLONE AT HIGH LATITUDES.

SUSTAINED WINDS OF 64 KT WITH GUSTS TO 81 KT WERE REPORTED AT
BERMUDA DURING THE PAST HOUR. SINCE IGOR HAS A VERY LARGE
CIRCULATION...SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON THE ISLAND WILL PROBABLY
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 20/0300Z 32.4N 65.5W 65 KT
12HR VT 20/1200Z 34.6N 64.4W 65 KT
24HR VT 21/0000Z 38.1N 60.9W 65 KT
36HR VT 21/1200Z 42.5N 55.5W 70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48HR VT 22/0000Z 46.5N 49.0W 70 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72HR VT 23/0000Z 49.5N 38.0W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96HR VT 24/0000Z 58.0N 37.0W 40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 25/0000Z 62.0N 42.0W 30 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Looks like most of the action is on Igor's north side. The south side doesn't look too bad.
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1782. mbjjm
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Interesting that almost all the convection is on the north side of the storm. How much lightning is happening?

Magnolia Hall on Bermuda is down to 28.44" on the west side of the island. That may be close to the min.



use millibars
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Ok enough is enough....The problem here on this so called blog is that there are those that can't stand to be proven wrong. When someone with the skill and experience voice their opinion those of us without the knowledge and experience should shut up, listen and learn.

So to all the trolls out there I have one question...Who is next that will be force out because you don't like what they are saying? Weather 456 and now StormW. I hope all of y'all are very proud.

Yes this is Dr. Master blog and I remember when during his post he called out both Weather 456 and StormW as feature blogger. I guess that means that you disagree with the name sake of this blog. What is y'all deal?

I don't post much but I just felt like it is something I had to say. I have always looked forward coming here and learning...Now it is worst than a playground full of inmature toddlers complaining that someone is using their crayons.

To all the Trolls....GROW UP!!!!!!!!
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1780. Prgal
Quoting PcolaDan:

Don't take it as being a target. As you are entitled to an opinion, so are others. From what I have read of yours, it has been done respectfully.


Look, I get what you are saying...but try to see what's happening. I dont take sides (not interested really), I rarely post here and when I do its because I am interested in the system or PR is threatened by a system. I came in tonight to see what was happening with Bermuda and answered a question (ohh, what a mistake).

Then I have a lot of people answering back and telling me to shut up. Why? Is there a fraternity here that only some are allowed to talk?
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1779. hydrus
Quoting JRRP:
Cant say I like the looks of that.
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Is it time for the GFS to start coming out yet ¿~) That'll get us back on topic, but alas we have a couple more hours til that happens.

Quoting Prgal:
Ok, I got in to read about Igor and too bad I followed the impulse to answer someone's question a while ago. Now I am the target.

Take your guns and aim it somewhere else. I am entitled to my opinion and the freedom to express it. I expect people to respect me the way I respect all of you.

Igor people!


You absolutely are entitled to your opinion. No one has to respect you (although at this point I do), but we do have to respect your right to have your own opinion. That said, you are not the target; I just think many of us understand the details of what unfolded not just the past few days, but the past few years and are truly disgusted by some of it.

I do think that this process, however annoying, of working this out amongst the bloggers has to run it's course. There are still going to be people that have questions & complaints for a few more days, and likely even longer than that, but you can bet that when and if the time comes that somewhere is under the gun again...This blog will transform in to data mode.
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Quoting Prgal:

br>Someone with an above normal IQ...bravo! Thank you for posting that. You know how many links outside WU I have in my bookmarks? I got them all from this blog!!!! Even Storm Junkie, Crown Weather, Oz...so many! But its ok...some poeple's memory is selective.

You say you're being respectful, yet make a comment like that which implies others that don't agree with you are below average IQ's?
Guess I'll go remove my previous post.
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G night all
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1775. JRRP
Quoting DDR:

Interesting...
First was the gfs,then the nogaps and now the nam,this is a couple days after it passes through the windwards.

yea
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Actually went to settings and restored default settings and it worked.
I use IE and it works fine. Every once in a while the blog stretches, I click "compatibility view," and it works again.
Thanks guys.
Am very happy for Bermuda tonight. Looked much worse a couple of days ago. In fact, Igor did pass almost over them but had somewhat miraculously petered out pretty much before that happened. night all.
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Quoting Neapolitan:


Dr. Masters did the polite thing in giving Walsh a free forum--and featured blogger status--for long enough that Walsh was able to develop a following. Walsh did the impolite thing by letting his easily-bruised ego make him forget that he was a guest here at Wunderground just like the rest of us. Dr. Masters owes Walsh nothing. Walsh, on the other hand, owes Dr. Masters--and, in fact, the whole forum--two things: A) an apology, and B) a thank you. In the meantime: if you want to read Walsh's stuff, visit his site. If you want to read Dr. Masters' stuff, stay on this site. And if you want to do both, do it. Just please--pretty please, with cherries on top--stop the infantile junior-high level back and forth drama.


your post is more junior high than anything i ever said. you have all the passion and anger and opinion in your post. i said something very simple without stating anything FOR or AGAINST anyone, and i'm being called junior high???

i don't get it. also, tonight is the FIRST time i even commented on the whole issue, and I've been on here every day for the past week as all of this went down.

i AM trying to talk about the weather, and got annoyed by every other post being "where is stormW", so I finally said what i thought dr. m should do, so we could all get back to the ding dong weather, without being interrupted by "where is StormW?" every other post.

my goodness, some of you people are ruthless.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.