A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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1870. NRAamy
It's not namby-pamby....it's Mambypamby..

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1868. pottery
Quoting BahaHurican:
Just a word of advice. They have REAL moderators over there, not the nambypamby kind here that just let people disagree with each other all night....

LOL.
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Quoting Chicklit:

He got into a fight with everyone and left.
He now has a new blog site. Someone please email it to smuldy.
Everyone here is weary of the discussion.
Good evening Chicklit, that one definitely rocked.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
1862. hydrus
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Gonna have to agree. "CV express" winding down...at least for now.
Hate to imagine what would happen if shear stayed low out there and the African wave train continued into October.. I has happened. The Cat-5 known as The Great Hurricane of 1780 or( The San Calixto Hurricane) was one of those years...that storm killed over 27,500 people....Terrible
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1860. Skyepony (Mod)
Typhoon knocks out power, transportation in Taiwan

Associated Press

Posted on September 19, 2010 at 10:00 PM

TAIPEI, Taiwan (AP) — A powerful typhoon has made landfall in eastern China after ripping into Taiwan, flooding the southern part of the island, crippling transportation and shutting off power.

Thousands of residents have fled mountainous areas prone to landslides.

The typhoon is the first major storm to strike Taiwan this year and the 11th typhoon to hit China.

It crossed Taiwan on Sunday with peak winds of 102 mph.

Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau says as much as 44 inches of rain have already fallen in the southern part of the island -- with more to come.

Military vehicles are in inundated areas to help trapped residents in southern Taiwan, including the country's second largest city. Schools and offices are closed.

Officials have evacuated 10,000 residents from remote areas vulnerable to landslides.

More than 100 people are reported injured.
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1859. mbjjm
1 hectopascal = 1 millibar
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1858. JLPR2
Quoting BahaHurican:
Just a word of advice. They have REAL moderators over there, not the nambypamby kind here that just let people disagree with each other all night....


Well then but disagreements are actually good...
Unless those disagreements turn nasty and trollish and eh... you been here long enough you know what I'm talking about. XD
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Quoting tomas5tex:
Ok enough is enough....The problem here on this so called blog is that there are those that can't stand to be proven wrong. When someone with the skill and experience voice their opinion those of us without the knowledge and experience should shut up, listen and learn.

So to all the trolls out there I have one question...Who is next that will be force out because you don't like what they are saying? Weather 456 and now StormW. I hope all of y'all are very proud.

Yes this is Dr. Master blog and I remember when during his post he called out both Weather 456 and StormW as feature blogger. I guess that means that you disagree with the name sake of this blog. What is y'all deal?

I don't post much but I just felt like it is something I had to say. I have always looked forward coming here and learning...Now it is worst than a playground full of inmature toddlers complaining that someone is using their crayons.

To all the Trolls....GROW UP!!!!!!!!


Bravo !
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1856. will40
Quoting 1900hurricane:

Ehh, I guess I didn't think to look at the tide info. Yeah, I thought that surge wouldn't be too bad either, but then someone posted an image of a flooded square in Bermuda and that kinda surprised me. I hasn't seemed like rainfall was bad enough to cause flooding, but then again, I don't know what Bermuda is like and what kind of issues are most likely to cause flooding over others.


no prob 1900. i guess quick rain bands are responsible. And drainage may be a prob you never know when we are not familiar with the Island
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If anyone is interested, go to caller.com to see some amazing pictures of flooding in Corpus Christi today. I am not sure of the official total, but we had 9.5 on the southside today. I hope this does not break any rules sending people to another site.
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Quoting JLPR2:
You know why I dont go and create an account in Storm's blog? It's missing something...
Debate, there is no disagreeing and without disagreements the ones that are wrong cant learn from their mistakes, also they call us the ''other place'' which I greatly dislike, though I follow it but I prefer Dr. M, the reason why I'm here in the first place!
There you do Dr. M! You could consider this advertisement for you! LOL!
Just a word of advice. They have REAL moderators over there, not the nambypamby kind here that just let people disagree with each other all night....
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
Respectfully, within the blog, is within the blog. Not, outside the blog. Perhaps we should be discussing the info here, rather than what is not here.
Did I miss something? I strive to give every person a chance to make their position clear.. Anything outside DR. Masters blog should be dealt with privately, if you agree to take your interest elsewhere. (Shakes head).
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
Time for the Night Shift?
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1850. JLPR2
Quoting Prgal:


LOL, I am not falling for that again!!!! That's my cue to leave...good night everyone. Have a wonderful evening. StormJunkie, I wrote back and everything is ok. No worries! It was a small misunderstanding ant its ok.



if people just read a few pages back... XD
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Quoting Grecojdw:


Dude she took it that way..That is what started the outrage in her writing. I'm surprised you didn't notice. If you look at what you wrote, it could be misconstrued as sexist. You might want to e-mail her:0


I already had ;)

For the record, if anyone else saw that comment as sexist read it again and think on it a little more.
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Quoting anyotherliestotell:
what a silly post re: we should "shut up and listen!" to the so called "experts." well guess what, predicting weather is like predicting the results of sporting contests. almost as often as not an educated guess from an amateur is more correct than "expert opinions." for example the local espn station brings on random celebs to predict football games (with the vegas odds) then compares them to "experts". last year the amateurs beat the pros EASILY. same thing here and some can't stand to admit that.


I guess you are one of the amateurs that is always right. Let me ask you this then. Would you go to someone with experience and training when you are sick or would you rather go to a 5th grade to be checked out. Same thing with weather...Experience and training trumps amateurs guess work everyday.
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Me too. I'm out.

G'nite.
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1844. Prgal
Quoting smuldy:
hi everyone-just back in from vacation, why is StormW's blog banned? went to get updates and its down??? WTH did i miss the last 2 weeks?


LOL, I am not falling for that again!!!! That's my cue to leave...good night everyone. Have a wonderful evening. StormJunkie, I wrote back and everything is ok. No worries! It was a small misunderstanding ant its ok.

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1843. JLPR2
You know why I dont go and create an account in Storm's blog? It's missing something...
Debate, there is no disagreeing and without disagreements the ones that are wrong cant learn from their mistakes, also they call us the ''other place'' which I greatly dislike, though I follow it but I prefer Dr. M, the reason why I'm here in the first place!
There you go Dr. M! You could consider this advertisement for you! LOL!
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Ehh, low tide right now. They really *shouldn't* have any surge issues with Igor...



(But, this ob is a few hours old.)
Quoting will40:
I agree Atmo storm surge shouldnt be much of a problem.

i would think a lot of it will just go around the island

Ehh, I guess I didn't think to look at the tide info. Yeah, I thought that surge wouldn't be too bad either, but then someone posted an image of a flooded square in Bermuda and that kinda surprised me. I hasn't seemed like rainfall was bad enough to cause flooding, but then again, I don't know what Bermuda is like and what kind of issues are most likely to cause flooding over others.
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L8R
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
1840. hydrus
Quoting Chicklit:
We will have Caribbean storm by this time next week..jmo
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1839. bassis
Quoting bassis:


It's not Igor singing the praises of The Patriots
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1837. xcool
omgggggggggggg
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15670
1836. smuldy
Quoting Chicklit:

He got into a fight with everyone and left.
He now has a new blog site. Someone please email it to smuldy.
Everyone here is weary of the discussion.
ah ok thanks! im sure i can get it off google; still that's crazy though!
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1833. hydrus
Quoting mbjjm:

The US is the only country in the world that still uses inches,when you use inches all the non US persons say uh?
Lol...We are old school...Tell SSIG, dont just sit there..:)
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1832. Prgal
Quoting Grecojdw:


Dude she took it that way..That is what started the outrage in her writing. I'm surprised you didn't notice. If you look at what you wrote, it could be misconstrued as sexist. You might want to e-mail her:0


Thank you Grecojdw...yeah, I got upset with him because I felt offended by it. But we talked and its ok. I know what he meant and its all good :-) Not upset with StormJunkie anymore because of that comment.
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1829. hydrus
Quoting amd:


yeah. I'm also seeing increasing westerly shear north of 15 degrees north and east of 40 degrees west, suggesting that the CV season may be on the downswing.

East Atlantic Shear

Not to say that we will not get any more development from the cape verde region, especially if system try to develop south of 15 degrees north, but it will get harder very soon. IMO.
You are right. I see some 50,s around the region...
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1828. mbjjm
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


And the pressure is rising a little. 28.46 inches

The US is the only country in the world that still uses inches,when you use inches all the non US persons say uh?
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Quoting hydrus:
Africa is serving up T-Waves like burgers at a fast food joint...

Eastern Caribbean looking dicey but not seeing any vorticity to speak of there yet.

really, now. gone.
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Quoting StormJunkie:
Weather456 did not get "run off", and well neither did the other one...but W456 has had family and family health issues to deal with from what I understand. I think all of us miss having him here to discuss the tropics with. Hope him and his family are ok. Here's to you 456.



Y'all are both cool in my book.
I sure don't have the time to be committed to a daily blog update and hang around for comments...sure I get enough time to fool around in here for a day or two, then I'm MIA for a couple of days.

What 456, and others, were doing is way beyond what I could without neglecting something else, like my kids.
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
1824. Prgal
Quoting Orcasystems:


I responded to your question.. as did others.. I didn't see a single one telling you to shutup. I also have a very large ignore list full of trolls, so they may have? Not one response I saw was disrespectful, they just tried to point on the difference between an on-site blog, and a off-site blog (spamming).

Levi's videos are a different kettle of fish... they use Youtube, which is not a offiste Blog as per say, its more like photobucket that people use for images.


I am "respectfully disagreeing a lot lol. Look, I took this from Dr. M's rules:
# Do not "1st!", "1st post!", or any of the numerical/linguistic derivatives. This is a worthless use of blog space.
# No spamming.
# No spamming.
# Seriously, no spamming. Spamming includes but is not limited to, trying to sell products, trying to solicit traffic for your own blog, trying to solicit traffic for other commercial entities, etc. Do not post links to your own site unless they are directly relevant and even then, use sparingly.
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Quoting hydrus:
I am by no means calling Igor a weak storm...The winds have dropped by more than half...To the relief of many i,m sure....Looks like an imploded smurf.

Igor is a record seeting Hurricane to be sure.Really amazing watching the Life cycle of A Cat 5 when all said and done.JMO
That brings to mind a question I had.Does anyone on the blog right now know the record stats of Igor?
Moe
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1822. hydrus
Quoting PcolaDan:
Look at the size of the polar vortex over Hudson Bay. Even Igor looks tiny...
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1821. NRAamy
Ok...for the VERY LAST TIME....


456 is hiding...because 7 8 9.....
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1820. amd
Quoting hydrus:
Africa is serving up T-Waves like burgers at a fast food joint...


yeah. I'm also seeing increasing westerly shear north of 15 degrees north and east of 40 degrees west, suggesting that the CV season may be on the downswing.

East Atlantic Shear

Not to say that we will not get any more development from the cape verde region, especially if system try to develop south of 15 degrees north, but it will get harder very soon. IMO.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.