A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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1920. flsky
Quoting BahaHurican:
Just a word of advice. They have REAL moderators over there, not the nambypamby kind here that just let people disagree with each other all night....

I asked a sincere question over there today re the situation w/WU and I was up for about a minute before he removed it. That's a real moderator for ya!
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1919. hydrus
Quoting pottery:
The waves forecast for Bermuda a couple days ago called for some really big stuff.
Any reports on waves?
They said on the news, 45 footers on the reefs and 20 footers on da beach..
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1918. hydrus
Quoting AnthonyJKenn:


Not to mention, a Cat 4-5 that smacked NOLA pretty damn hard as well...gusts said to be near 160 mph. Worse than even Katrina, I'd suppose.


Anthony
Nola never received any gusts near 160 mph during Katrina. Even if they did, almost everything was under the water anyway. How much damage would the wind have done with everything submerged?
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chicklit someone said go out of WU and clean your cache, (cookies) then come back in and sign in and it should go back to default settings. I did and it fixed it.
sheri
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1916. NRAamy
Yes, bigwess....we all think that...
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1915. pottery
The waves forecast for Bermuda a couple days ago called for some really big stuff.
Any reports on waves?
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anybody think we will have a u.s. landfall soon this season?
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Quoting anyotherliestotell:
...ever notice that the REAL expert Dr. Masters NEVER trashes anyone that disagrees with him and that, even when he IS wrong, he doesn't make phony excuses but rather gets back to the hard work of science?


I can attest to that. Even got the WUMail to prove it - but I won't. He's human, not infallible, and when something goes 'oops' he takes it in stride, fixes it and moves on.

That, to me, is the definition of a professional.
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Quoting hydrus:
The whole 1780 season was bad. There were two other hurricanes that year that killed thousands besides the San Calixto......Link


Not to mention, a Cat 4-5 that smacked NOLA pretty damn hard as well...gusts said to be near 160 mph. Worse than even Katrina, I'd suppose.


Anthony
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1910. Skyepony (Mod)
Other news..there's Igor~ Bermuda is riding it out. The real time info is better then most storms.. This live USTREAM has good sound.

Some oil rigs are getting evacuated of Newfoundland & Canada do to Igor.

96ºF in Denver, CO today.

Not a storm report all day across the CONUS but the final reports from yesterdays tornado rampages are coming in.
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1909. JLPR2
This was issued and no one told me? XD
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CANTORE has the goggles on!!
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5689
Quoting taco2me61:

Amy you are so funny :o)
Agreed. I must also agree about Barney.Kids are grown now,
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
1904. hydrus
Yes. I see nothing but Julia,s pure tropical power in this frame...
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1903. xcool
SUNDAY 10 PM
IGOR SLAMMING OF BERMUDA HELPS ME SLAM THE RATINGS BEING USED

Fabian was a 3 at Bermuda. If the scale is right and Igor is only a one, then it should only do 3.25 million dollars damage since Fabian did 325 million dollars damage. The folks using this claim a 10 fold ramp up in damage with each category. This should expose this

Does anyone think the damage here is going to be that low?

The conclusion will be obvious, Igor is not just a 75 mph cat one hurricane at 951 mb or whatever they are calling it.. And the scale is outdated and my power rating is a much better predictor of the amount of overall strength a storm has

This shows overall strength of the storm, not some mythical one minute wind

We will have a chance to watch it in action again in 10-15 probably in the gulf states or southeast

And true to the pattern at the start of the month,, here we go with another monster heat wave.. this time aimed right into the Ohio valley, with records from the last La Nina, the endless summer of 07, being challenged this week

thanks for reading, ciao for now *****.

by joe..
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Spider goes more to the West...





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1843. Very nice

00z 0hr GFS...It's started, now just to wait the next hour as it comes out.



Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 16874
Yes it is "true"

:o)

Taco :o)
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Hey, don't move any other tentacle to the west...

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1896. NRAamy
But it's true!!!

:)
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1894. hydrus
Bermuda is going to get hit with a huge squall any minute...
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One Igor to go..

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Bermuda radio broadcast for those who missed it earlier.

LOL The announcer just said "Pardon if I make any mistakes. My flashlight is getting dim, and my eyes dimmer."
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
1890. will40
Quoting Skyepony:
Surf City | An experienced surfer died Sunday after he was pulled from the big surf churned by Hurricane Igor as it passed more than 700 miles east of the North Carolina coast.

Police have not released the surfer’s name or the circumstances of his death, but witnesses identified the victim as local Kurt Murray, 21.


Sky that was just a short ways down the coast from me. The waves haven't been that high but the rip current is terrible. Sadly there will probably be more of those news stories in the coming days
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1889. hydrus
Quoting cat5hurricane:
And yet ANOTHER record for this season!!!
The whole 1780 season was bad. There were two other hurricanes that year that killed thousands besides the San Calixto......Link
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Quoting NRAamy:
It's not namby-pamby....it's Mambypamby..


Amy you are so funny :o)
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1887. pottery
Quoting PcolaDan:


Guessing that means "my way or the highway"?

Sounds so, to me LOL.
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Quoting pottery:

LOL.


Guessing that means "my way or the highway"?
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
1884. JLPR2
Quoting hydrus:
The Power !! The Symmetry that is Julia !!...notice the intense rotation with the CDO..lol


But she's not completely dead... yet.

Wouldn't it be funny if Igor transitioned into an extratropical storm while Julia hangs on to her tropical status? LOL!
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1882. pottery
Post 1860, Skye..
44 inches of rain, along with 102mph wind.
That is a serious storm....
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Quoting mbjjm:
Troll defined in spanish ...Un troll o trol es un vocablo de Internet que describe a una persona que sólo busca provocar intencionadamente a los usuarios o lectores, creando controversia, provocar reacciones predecibles, especialmente por parte de usuarios novatos, con fines diversos, desde el simple divertimento hasta interrumpir o desviar los temas de las discusiones, o bien provocar flamewars, enfadando a sus participantes y enfrentándolos entre sí. El troll puede ser más o menos sofisticado, desde mensajes groseros, ofensivos o fuera de tema, sutiles provocaciones o mentiras difíciles de detectar, con la intención en cualquier caso de confundir o provocar la reacción de los demás.


Gracias, Thanks for the definition..
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no prob tomas.
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1877. hydrus
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Good riddance Julia:

The Power !! The Symmetry that is Julia !!...notice the intense rotation with the CDO..lol
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1876. Skyepony (Mod)
Surf City | An experienced surfer died Sunday after he was pulled from the big surf churned by Hurricane Igor as it passed more than 700 miles east of the North Carolina coast.

Police have not released the surfer’s name or the circumstances of his death, but witnesses identified the victim as local Kurt Murray, 21.
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1875. mbjjm
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:


Anyone can post what units they like, inches, millibars, hectopascals.


agreed, but when you post in inches only I have to google a weather calculator to convert it to mb.

okay current winds at Magnolia Hall, Smiths Parish Bermuda wsw 23m/s
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44 inches of rain, oh my!!!! those poor people : 0
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Quoting truecajun:


tomas5tex, i think the person you quoted is a troll.


I know he is and my apologies to all for quoting him.
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1870. NRAamy
It's not namby-pamby....it's Mambypamby..

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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