A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting hydrus:
They said on the news, 45 footers on the reefs and 20 footers on da beach..
I believe that...the wave models were forcasting over 34' offshore.
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Quoting LeMoyne:
Any body catch the AL94 LISA destruction??
She seems to be in a death spiral now but sats are behind...
- has retreated from 13n to 16N in last couple hours - perhaps the low level convection tore out of the hurricane trying to reach the arms to the south
the central core + eye wall collapsed in a blaze of glory - alternatively second core formed and the two eyes self destructed - one eye is unwinding off to North - any one in the way of that is in for a shock and real trouble ...

What I thought woold be a fairly simple arm addition by rotation tore her apart. Central core of 94L now into "dry" layer - arms pursuing ... lol

I have no doubt that she was a hurricane - that central convection eye+eyewall is/was at least a couple degrees wide - has traveled over 100 miles... she may yet survive but it doesn't look good -


Is this the same non-Lisa which was going to be the worst hurricane of the season a couple of hours ago? Just curious.
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting NRAamy:
Skyepony should be a featured blogger..and for once I am being totally serious..she is an asset to this place.....

Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting catastropheadjuster:
chicklit someone said go out of WU and clean your cache, (cookies) then come back in and sign in and it should go back to default settings. I did and it fixed it.
sheri

I did what someone suggested, go to top of page, clic on settings, clic on page tab and clic on restore defaults. it worked for me!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1963. hydrus
Quoting Abacosurf:

We had all of the lawn furniture blown out of the 2 pools when the wind blew 3/4 of the water out of the pool during Floyd in the Abacos. IMO if the wind was blowing when everything was submerged it would have been FAR worse. It would have made the water turbulent with breaking waves. Water rise and fall sucks but moving rising water is DEADLY!
Thank you for posting that. I learned something new and important.
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1962. NRAamy
OMG!!!! We all agree on something!!!!!

:)
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Quoting StormJunkie:
as it was "only" a Cat2.

That whole incident of hearing the media say that when the NHC was saying "Anyone who stays faces certain death". Had me irate. Then Lyda Ann didn't help make me any less angry.
The choir, SJ
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
1959. pottery
Quoting Buhdog:
Skkepony- in my over 5 years lurking, you are probably the most underrated blogger here. Your posts are very informative.

Agreed.
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Quoting Skyepony:
Other news..there's Igor~ Bermuda is riding it out. The real time info is better then most storms.. This live USTREAM has good sound.

Some oil rigs are getting evacuated of Newfoundland & Canada do to Igor.

96ºF in Denver, CO today.

Not a storm report all day across the CONUS but the final reports from yesterdays tornado rampages are coming in.

Hey Sky not the one to be the barer of bad News but "Bad Thunderstorm" just north of Ft Walton Beach....

Taco :o)
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Quoting hydrus:
Nola never received any gusts near 160 mph during Katrina. Even if they did, almost everything was under the water anyway. How much damage would the wind have done with everything submerged?


My point exactly...NOLA's winds probably never exceeded 70-80 mph at worse during Katrina, since the storm was a bit east of the city. The 1780 storm, though, passed right over the city with those apparent strong winds. A huge difference.

Anthony
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Quoting Skyepony:
Surf City | An experienced surfer died Sunday after he was pulled from the big surf churned by Hurricane Igor as it passed more than 700 miles east of the North Carolina coast.

Police have not released the surfer’s name or the circumstances of his death, but witnesses identified the victim as local Kurt Murray, 21.


Weather related, if not ocean coastline related, Lake Superior has had 12 drownings this year. Most people are saying that the lake has turned more dangerous this year. Lake Superior had record warm temperatures this year and a very warm summer. Sound like anywhere else we know?
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1955. NRAamy
Skyepony should be a featured blogger..and for once I am being totally serious..she is an asset to this place.....
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Quoting Buhdog:
Skkepony- in my over 5 years lurking, you are probably the most underrated blogger here. Your posts are very informative.


+1
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
1953. pottery
Quoting SuperYooper:


My wife has a bumper sticker saying "can't we all just get a bong?", but I don't think that is relevant. Where in the carrib are the gfs and others thinking that this new system will start? Thanks in advance.

LOL to the 'a bong'!!
Looks like in the Eastern Carib, is the general area.
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It looks to me like Bermuda is getting hit with perhaps the roughest wind and waves that they'l see....right now. But as far as the waves go, wouldn't the worst of that be in front of the storm....and the waves should subside pretty quickly here....maybe another 2-3 hours. But it doesn't look like their's much of a back-end left on Igor. I don't see bad waves/winds for another 12 hours.
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1950. Skyepony (Mod)
Rivers overflowed where Karl hit. Navy is still evacuating people. Pics look really flooded. 10 dead so far.
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Did Igor ever officially make landfall in Bermuda

Guess it's depends on your definition of landfall. The eye is JUST west of Bermuda. But they are in the strongest winds as we speak, barely outside the eye on the east.
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
Quoting pottery:

'' ... cant we all just get along"??
I am having trouble tolerating ME these days on this blog.
Nice, that should help. (smiles)
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
Quoting hydrus:
Nola never received any gusts near 160 mph during Katrina. Even if they did, almost everything was under the water anyway. How much damage would the wind have done with everything submerged?

We had all of the lawn furniture blown out of the 2 pools when the wind blew 3/4 of the water out of the pool during Floyd in the Abacos. IMO if the wind was blowing when everything was submerged it would have been FAR worse. It would have made the water turbulent with breaking waves. Water rise and fall sucks but moving rising water is DEADLY!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1946. Buhdog
Skkepony- in my over 5 years lurking, you are probably the most underrated blogger here. Your posts are very informative.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1944. hydrus
Quoting SuperYooper:


My wife has a bumper sticker saying "can't we all just get a bong?", but I don't think that is relevant. Where in the carrib are the gfs and others thinking that this new system will start? Thanks in advance.
S.W.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1943. pottery
Quoting NRAamy:
No, it's Viva La Bam!

And Pott....don't think you've gone unnoticed...I'm starving over here!!!!!

Sorry to hear that.
I ate enough today to last until next Friday...
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Quoting xcool:
SUNDAY 10 PM
IGOR SLAMMING OF BERMUDA HELPS ME SLAM THE RATINGS BEING USED

Fabian was a 3 at Bermuda. If the scale is right and Igor is only a one, then it should only do 3.25 million dollars damage since Fabian did 325 million dollars damage. The folks using this claim a 10 fold ramp up in damage with each category. This should expose this

Does anyone think the damage here is going to be that low?

The conclusion will be obvious, Igor is not just a 75 mph cat one hurricane at 951 mb or whatever they are calling it.. And the scale is outdated and my power rating is a much better predictor of the amount of overall strength a storm has

This shows overall strength of the storm, not some mythical one minute wind

We will have a chance to watch it in action again in 10-15 probably in the gulf states or southeast

And true to the pattern at the start of the month,, here we go with another monster heat wave.. this time aimed right into the Ohio valley, with records from the last La Nina, the endless summer of 07, being challenged this week

thanks for reading, ciao for now *****.

by joe..


Awwww..poor widdle Joe Bastardi...mad because the NHC forecasters are kicking his behind again this year?? Or, because he didn't get his Armageddon hurricane over the oil spill earlier this season??

The NHC scale is perfectly fine, and perhaps the reason why the damage might not equal the pressure readings is because Igor is transitioning into an extratropical system and is winding down quickly from what it was.

And while I do think that the second Caribbean season will be pretty active, and Florida and the East Coast are due to get a big one, and possibly two, I still see only a two- to three-week window for any storm to affect the GOM west of Mobile/ FL Panhandle before the power trofs and power fronts and westerlies move in and shut down the NW Gulf for good. LaNina or not, I say that the 2010 hurricane season is essentially over for the TX/LA/MS coasts by October 20th.

Of course, I say that and then we get something like Hilda (1964) or Juan (1985)...but for now I'm sticking to my story.


Anthony
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
Did Igor ever officially make landfall in Bermuda


No
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1939. pottery
Quoting EricSFL:
Are wave heights directly related to atmospheric pressure? As in lower pressure - higher waves?

Only wind makes waves.
(excludes tsunami's)
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1938. hydrus
Quoting Skyepony:


it was
96 is hot just about anywhere...But Denver!
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1937. NRAamy
No, it's Viva La Bam!

And Pott....don't think you've gone unnoticed...I'm starving over here!!!!!
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
1936. LeMoyne
Any body catch the AL94 LISA destruction??
She seems to be in a death spiral now but sats are behind...
- has retreated from 13n to 16N in last couple hours - perhaps the low level convection tore out of the hurricane trying to reach the arms to the south
the central core + eye wall collapsed in a blaze of glory - alternatively second core formed and the two eyes self destructed - one eye is unwinding off to North - any one in the way of that is in for a shock and real trouble ...

What I thought woold be a fairly simple arm addition by rotation tore her apart. Central core of 94L now into "dry" layer - arms pursuing ... lol

I have no doubt that she was a hurricane - that central convection eye+eyewall is/was at least a couple degrees wide - has traveled over 100 miles... she may yet survive but it doesn't look good -
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1935. pottery
Quoting gordydunnot:
Where is Rodney King when we need him can't we all just get a long . Short answer is hell no.What a fricken boring world, if we all have to placate each other ALL THE TIME. Viva la difference.

'' ... cant we all just get along"??
I am having trouble tolerating ME these days on this blog.
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Quoting pottery:

Wow!
That's big .
Destructive, if we assume that they will be slamming the coast for several hours too.


I'd have to agree, they will be dealing with the seas for a while. With the overall size of the storm, I would say that there are a lot of waves enroute. With nothing to act on them to knock them down, they will be very slow to diminish.
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1933. hydrus
Quoting pottery:

Wow!
That's big .
Destructive, if we assume that they will be slamming the coast for several hours too.
My guess they will see huge waves until almost noon. Then things should clean up a bit.jmo
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1932. EricSFL
Are wave heights directly related to atmospheric pressure? As in lower pressure - higher waves?
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Did Igor ever officially make landfall in Bermuda
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1930. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting hydrus:
96 in Denver? They are a mile up and it is late September. I wonder if that is a record high for the date.


it was
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as it was "only" a Cat2.

That whole incident of hearing the media say that when the NHC was saying "Anyone who stays faces certain death". Had me irate. Then Lyda Ann didn't help make me any less angry.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1928. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting will40:


Sky that was just a short ways down the coast from me. The waves haven't been that high but the rip current is terrible. Sadly there will probably be more of those news stories in the coming days


Said the waves were 5-7'.. like you mentioned not all that high. The story has the grim details. Very tragic.
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1927. mbjjm
"

Jim Cantore little earlier
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1925. hydrus
Quoting Skyepony:
Other news..there's Igor~ Bermuda is riding it out. The real time info is better then most storms.. This live USTREAM has good sound.

Some oil rigs are getting evacuated of Newfoundland & Canada do to Igor.

96ºF in Denver, CO today.

Not a storm report all day across the CONUS but the final reports from yesterdays tornado rampages are coming in.
96 in Denver? They are a mile up and it is late September. I wonder if that is a record high for the date.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1924. pottery
Quoting hydrus:
They said on the news, 45 footers on the reefs and 20 footers on da beach..

Wow!
That's big .
Destructive, if we assume that they will be slamming the coast for several hours too.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1923. NRAamy
Hi Sherri!!!

:)
Member Since: January 24, 2007 Posts: 317 Comments: 31946
Quoting hydrus:
Nola never received any gusts near 160 mph during Katrina. Even if they did, almost everything was under the water anyway. How much damage would the wind have done with everything submerged?


That was in reference to the earlier storm. Read it again... the OP said "worse even than Katrina".
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1921. will40
I want me one of those trees in the web cam. That is a tough lil bugger.
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1920. flsky
Quoting BahaHurican:
Just a word of advice. They have REAL moderators over there, not the nambypamby kind here that just let people disagree with each other all night....

I asked a sincere question over there today re the situation w/WU and I was up for about a minute before he removed it. That's a real moderator for ya!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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