A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:17 PM GMT on September 19, 2010

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Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.


Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.

Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.

Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.


Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.

Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.

I'll have a new post on Monday.

Jeff Masters

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Igor is having a wide impact, even back to the islands, the British Virgin Islands, received copious amount of rains today that resulted in significant flooding! As the broad circulation draws moisture out of the SE Caribbean Sea. LinkTake a look at the link here!
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2019. hydrus
Quoting sunlinepr:
Be R muda

HEY? Where,s the mile thingy? It looks bigger then Britain on that pic..
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2018. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
Quoting taco2me61:
Hey I understand that. But now the Ant Hills look like mountains with out trees...... Its so dry here even the flour I use to cook with is wetter than the "Desert" in my back yard....

Taco :o)


lol.....we need rain ....not necessarily tropical in nature!!
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2016. NRAamy
What's up with the Unibomber?!

Bring back the Darth Vader potato head!
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Quoting hydrus:
You made a good observation..However, statistics are only numbers which have no control over actual events...In other words, I would not at all be surprised if the east coast of Florida was slammed by a major hurricane this October...Especially the way things are shaping up..Just my harmless opinion..:)
I was thinking the same thing. This seems like a likely year to buck the odds when it comes to weather trends.
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Be R muda

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2013. Relix
Come on stop the StormW flaming, its childish and immature. He has more experience than most here so don't jump on top of him for that.
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Down with mobile.......send it east to around Marianna STAT!!....(jk)...been a month....my horse pasture has sand dunes in it!!
Hey I understand that. But now the Ant Hills look like mountains with out trees...... Its so dry here even the flour I use to cook with is wetter than the "Desert" in my back yard....

Taco :o)
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2011. hydrus
Quoting anyotherliestotell:
i didn't state it clearly. only twice have hurricanes hit the mainland east coast of florida, AFTER october 1, as the first landfalling hurricane of the season, in the united states. this excludes the keys. and the map shows quite a few "first" landfalls on west coast.
You made a good observation..However, statistics are only numbers which have no control over actual events...In other words, I would not at all be surprised if the east coast of Florida was slammed by a major hurricane this October...Especially the way things are shaping up..Just my harmless opinion..:)
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Quoting Katelynn:

Don't know if this was posted this afternoon, but there were already pics of some surge flooding on BDA




Article is here:  BerNews - Surge causes Severe Flooding at Boaz

I'm sure some parishes are having a longggg night of it...

I will scan my old pics and post them of taking water over the bow on the USS Siapan in the north atlantic in August of 1986...Charley
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Quoting anyotherliestotell:
according to "Florida Weather" third edition, since 1890 there have only been TWO hurricanes to hit the east coast of florida as the first landfalling hurricane of the season. Therefore, according to history, if there is not a landfall in 10 days in the US, the chances of a hurricane landfall on the east coast of florida are LESS THAN 1 in 50. good news for us residents, bad news for Joe Bastardi and WU bloggers wanting to see it happen for reasons better known to them.


Maybe so....but climatology and the usual wind patterns tend to have a way of busting trends.

Also...maybe the east coast of Florida may not be threatened..but certainly the WEST coast (Key West to Ft. Myers to Tampa Bay to the Panhandle) is highly vulnerable, especially from any storm coming up from Cuba or the Florida Straits (Cleo, Charley) or even the NW Caribbean being pushed NE or ENE by the power trofs (Wilma).

Not to mention, that storms smacking FL from the S or SW can cross the penisula into the Atlantic and still rake the east coast pretty bad.

Stats and trends are fine and all...but trends are made to be broken. Ask anyone who survived the 2005 Season From Hell.


Anthony

{Note: Clarification duly noted and appreciated.]


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Quoting taco2me61:

Yes there is a storm over there.... Not so sure how long it will last but sure could use some over here in the Mobile area....

Taco :o)


Down with mobile.......send it east to around Marianna STAT!!....(jk)...been a month....my horse pasture has sand dunes in it!!
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Quoting StormHype:
New chaser video out of Bermuda....
Link

Thanks for finding that!  There were a couple more of his short vids at the end too.  Hope their main roads and bridges fair well tonight.
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2005. hydrus
Quoting sunlinepr:
BERMUDA at link

http://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/Bouncer-Beach/weather_map

* Forecasts
o Detail. 48h forecast
o 6 day forecast
* Surf & Wind Alerts
o Set up alerts
* Observations
o Wave Buoys
o Live Weather
* Swell maps
o Dynamic Map
o Static Maps
* Gallery
o Videos
o Photos


That image looks like a sea turtle...Man, I know i be gettin tired now..
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Seems like the 00z may want to push 94 south and west early on.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15644
Complete Update


AOI
AOI AOI AOI

AOI AOI AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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2001. hydrus
Quoting Abacosurf:

Your welcome. Never did find any of those lawn chairs....LOL
They are off the coast of Britain..( all the junk gets blown towards the Gulf Stream and the stream terminates in that general area) They find all kinds of weird stuff there all the time. One dude found a huge speed boat( largely intact)!
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1996...Ahh, just in time...I was wondering why I was having to post the GFS 00z run...Thought you might be mia. Glad to see that is not the case.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15644
1998. Skyepony (Mod)
Gordy~ You know it.. I wish I had the time to write the blogs I used to. Perhaps in a few years.. & life beckons.
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BERMUDA at link

http://www.surf-forecast.com/breaks/Bouncer-Beach/weather_map

* Forecasts
o Detail. 48h forecast
o 6 day forecast
* Surf & Wind Alerts
o Set up alerts
* Observations
o Wave Buoys
o Live Weather
* Swell maps
o Dynamic Map
o Static Maps
* Gallery
o Videos
o Photos


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1996. xcool



PGI46L in

SW Caribbean.
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15620
Quoting traumaboyy:


There's Rain in NW Florida????

Yes there is a storm over there.... Not so sure how long it will last but sure could use some over here in the Mobile area....

Taco :o)
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Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:

Is that a threaty, implied???????

my bad, it couldn't possibly be that here
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
Three years earlier and it might have been a very different story BD...
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15644
Quoting PrivateIdaho:
I believe that...the wave models were forcasting over 34' offshore.


Don't know if this was posted this afternoon, but there were already pics of some surge flooding on BDA




Article is here:  BerNews - Surge causes Severe Flooding at Boaz

I'm sure some parishes are having a longggg night of it...


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1991. Buhdog
Hey SJ! How it be? you come along way in the years! So ya believe how the seasons got once we opened out hurricane site? lol! It was a nice try! SO proud of your work!
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1990. NRAamy
Thank you Private Idaho....I think....

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1989. hydrus
Quoting AnthonyJKenn:


My point exactly...NOLA's winds probably never exceeded 70-80 mph at worse during Katrina, since the storm was a bit east of the city. The 1780 storm, though, passed right over the city with those apparent strong winds. A huge difference.

Anthony
It is an established fact that NOLA is what they call a natural point of landfall for hurricanes. There is substantial evidence from core samples and other scientific data that hurricanes were 3 times in number of landfalls then what is occurring in modern times. I do not have it in front of me, but in the state of Florida where people typically believe its the east coast that takes most of the hits, there was one decade in the late 1800,s where the west coast of Florida was hit 17 times and the east coast was hit only four. There obviously large shifts in the pattern cycles which steer these cyclones.
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Quoting Buhdog:
Let's not let skye be a featured blogger, it has not ended well for many. I am not about to even try and dissect that one... :) Can you guys catch me up on the ghost storm in the Caribbean? I don't wanna look it up before bed! thanks and good night yall!


You know Skye, this guy may have a point. Sheesh.
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Quoting anyotherliestotell:
according to "Florida Weather" third edition, since 1890 there have only been TWO hurricanes to hit the east coast of florida as the first landfalling hurricane of the season. Therefore, according to history, if there is not a landfall in 10 days in the US, the chances of a hurricane landfall on the east coast of florida are LESS THAN 1 in 50. good news for us residents, bad news for Joe Bastardi and WU bloggers wanting to see it happen for reasons better known to them

Unfortunately, one of them was Andrew in 1992. We had strongest Hurricane that far East with (Julia) & strongest one in Bay of Campeche (Karl). What about the Panhandle & West Coast of Florida?
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1985. Skyepony (Mod)
Buhdog~ Thanks.. I've never felt underrated. I know ya'll appreciate me bring back from the ride I take around the weather web. I could post or stick around more to reply but there is life..

Fanapi is a little worrisome.. no deaths yet. But no assessment yet. MX had nowhere near 44inches & they are still swimming out. Igor over Bermuda is amazing with the real time stories & all..if only we all had 8" poured concrete walls, a decent infrastructure & some working wifi in the storm wall..
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Quoting taco2me61:

Amy you are so funny :o)
Amy rocks! (inascaryidon'twanttocrossherkindaway)
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1983. JLPR2
The little tree of might lives!
Link
I agree with everyone, that is one resistant tree. :]

Also, yeah! I would vote Yes for skyepony as a featured blogger. :D
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Quoting taco2me61:

Hey Sky not the one to be the barer of bad News but "Bad Thunderstorm" just north of Ft Walton Beach....

Taco :o)


There's Rain in NW Florida????
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I hopped on the Skypony band wagon earlier this year she is probably the most serious blogger on this blog except the Doc.You'll never see her post crap or insults, although a joke every once in a while would be nice. Probably has to much of a life to be a featured blogger but would second that nomination NRAmy.
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Quoting Abacosurf:

We had all of the lawn furniture blown out of the 2 pools when the wind blew 3/4 of the water out of the pool during Floyd in the Abacos. IMO if the wind was blowing when everything was submerged it would have been FAR worse. It would have made the water turbulent with breaking waves. Water rise and fall sucks but moving rising water is DEADLY!

Is your pool completely exposed to winds? Mine is surrounded by a fairly close fence and some trees (not as many now). During Ivan you could have put a scale model ship in there and filmed the The Perfect Storm. And if I hadn't let some water out it would have overflowed.
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Quoting NRAamy:
OMG!!!! We all agree on something!!!!!

:)
Agreed. No doubt about it.
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Quoting Buhdog:
Skkepony- in my over 5 years lurking, you are probably the most underrated blogger here. Your posts are very informative.


Good to see you BD, been a while.

I concur, Skye is right up there with nrti. Both very informative and helpful posters. Always have very interesting data and insight. We are lucky to have them around.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15644
Quoting Buhdog:
Skkepony- in my over 5 years lurking, you are probably the most underrated blogger here. Your posts are very informative.


I couldn't agree more. Skyepony rocks. I wish more would emulate her style and particularly her humility. A class act - she knows her stuff cold and never flashes it around, just sticks to the facts and what might reasonably be derived from them.
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1976. Buhdog
Let's not let skye be a featured blogger, it has not ended well for many. I am not about to even try and dissect that one... :) Can you guys catch me up on the ghost storm in the Caribbean? I don't wanna look it up before bed! thanks and good night yall!
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Quoting hydrus:
Thank you for posting that. I learned something new and important.

Your welcome. Never did find any of those lawn chairs....LOL
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1974. KEEPEROFTHEGATE (Mod)
Quoting anyotherliestotell:
according to "Florida Weather" third edition, since 1890 there have only been TWO hurricanes to hit the east coast of florida as the first landfalling hurricane of the season. Therefore, according to history, if there is not a landfall in 10 days in the US, the chances of a hurricane landfall on the east coast of florida are LESS THAN 1 in 50. good news for us residents, bad news for Joe Bastardi and WU bloggers wanting to see it happen for reasons better known to them.
yes time is running out for the 2010 circus.
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1973. flsky
Quoting PcolaDan:


Agree!
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New chaser video out of Bermuda....
Link
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Quoting NRAamy:
OMG!!!! We all agree on something!!!!!

:)

It hurts doesn't it. :)
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Quoting hydrus:
They said on the news, 45 footers on the reefs and 20 footers on da beach..
I believe that...the wave models were forcasting over 34' offshore.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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