A weakened Igor bears down on Bermuda; 94L likely to develop
Hurricane Igor is closing in on Bermuda, but the hurricane's eyewall has collapsed, weakening Igor into a large but still dangerous Category 1 hurricane with 85 mph winds. Winds in Bermuda are rising, and exceeded tropical storm-force for the first time at 9:55 am AST this morning. Bermuda radar shows the island is now embedded in one of the main heavy rains bands of Igor, and is experiencing heavy rain and high winds. As of 11 am AST local time, winds at the Bermuda Airport were sustained at 46 mph, gusting to 63 mph. Winds will continue to rise today as the storm's core approaches. Hurricane force winds should arrive at the island between 4 - 8pm AST today, and last for 4 - 8 hours. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 hurricane conditions with waves of 25 - 45 feet affecting the island's offshore waters during the peak of the storm. Buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and are generally located at higher elevations out of storm surge zones; thus damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. With its eyewall gone, it is highly unlikely that Igor will be able to intensify before making landfall.
Figure 1. Hurricane Igor as seen from a "radar in space" microwave instrument on the polar-orbiting F-16 satellite at 7:36 am AST Sunday September 19, 2010. The eyewall has mostly collapsed, leaving just one fragment behind on the northwest side of Igor's center. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.
94L
A tropical wave (Invest 94L) off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands, has developed a broad surface circulation and is threat to develop into a tropical depression. The wave is under a low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and is over warm 28°C waters. Dry air from the Sahara is interfering with development, and 94L only has a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity associated with it. Shear is expected to be low for the next four days, and all of the major models develop 94L into a tropical depression 1 - 3 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 70% of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. With the exception of the NOGAPS model, the models predict that 94L will move northwestward out to sea.
Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Invest 94L.
Julia
Tropical Storm Julia is being ripped apart by wind shear from Igor, and will likely dissipate on Monday or Tuesday.
Typhoon Fanapi
Typhoon Fanapi made landfall in northern Taiwan early Sunday morning local time as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Fanapi killed three people on the island, and brought rains of up to 690 mm (27.2 inches) to mountainous regions in the interior. Fanapi is the strongest typhoon so far this year, in what has been an exceptionally quiet Western Pacific typhoon season. The previous strongest typhoon this season was Typhoon Kompasu, a low-end Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds that hit South Korea in early September. As seen on Taiwan radar, Fanapi has crossed over Taiwan and is now in the Taiwan Strait between the island and mainland China. Fanapi is expected to hit China about 150 miles east-northeast of Hong Kong on Monday, as a Category 1 typhoon.
Figure 3. Typhoon Fanapi at landfall in Taiwan at 7:10 local time on September 19, 2010. Image credit: Taiwan Central Weather Bureau.
Elsewhere in the tropics
In many recent runs, the NOGAPS and GFS models have been predicting development of a strong tropical disturbance or tropical depression in the Central Caribbean 6 - 9 days from now. However, the timing, location, and track of the potential development have been inconsistent from run to run. We should merely take note of the fact that these models predict that the Caribbean will be ripe for tropical storm development late this week and early next week, and not put much faith in the specifics of these highly unreliable long-range forecasts.
I'll have a new post on Monday.
Jeff Masters
Reader Comments
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I think we will see a track like a Wilma. Don't know if is the potential system we're speaking of now or another one in October. I very much believe that 2 storms are going to threaten the area from FL to Miss.
AOI
TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
I may be tame...but I am not that tame :)
6Z GFS shows a storm forming in the Caribbean, moving north through the Greater Antilles, Bahamas, and making landfall near the GA/SC border.
The one east (between 50-60W) is gaining some convection now, and the other one at around 70W is losing some.
Not surprising, when you look at the WV loops, and upper level winds.
The 50-60 one is still trapped in the ITCZ, and is trending west or even a little south of that, while 70W is feeling the pull north toward PR and the DomRep courtesy of Igor.
Past 24 hrs ending 7am Bermuda airport reporting 73.4mm.....2.89inches
Igor was not so big on rainfall . 2.9inches is a relatively small amount of rainfall for a hurricane. They can have this amount with cold front or trough.
The zoo of models (lol -like that) starts on the west side of the storm - Lisa landed after disaster, stabilized and showed center off and on today NW of 31W 15N and shows eye now at
30.5W 16.5N @645 - 0715
Initial direction N - movement in response to moisture flow under and from all around to over and back to storm - can see flow is arriving on NW quad by constant firing there - also movement is from growing and turning main axis NW/SE.
N side of eye all visible with edge outflow drifting SE - shows 1/4 to 1/3 degree eye
Eye has apparent diameter of some few miles ...
30.3W 16.5N @745 Clear eye means solid outflow
CIMSS says water is 28 seems to be working so far (not cool).
also Lisa's ADT >3.5 - I say definitely 4 : has gron and was funky/max ADT for 4 hours before 345 measurement both measurements have constraint of 0.2 per hour increase as if new storm - Lisa is 48 hours old (rough but challenging = opportunity filled hours). Lisa Phoenix luckily fit right back into kink of ideal WSW-ENE flow boundary tho she worked for it too - (now has wide LL conv UL div) Connected with LL convergent flow established yesterday (continuing nicely now) while forming absolutely classic storm shape. This storm is established and ready to grow. - lol - 94 L IS A grower.
Model may easily go wrong from incorrect IC for position, energy/power and momentum.
I guess Lisa to maybe back and circle some more in response to local flow, nudge from front to S and growth.
From dimples even more sure that Lisa will back E and cirle S a bit as N Arm flexes N
Then she'll smoothly power W or crawl down the dry line WSW (tilted axis) as a major at or below 17 N ...
We will see ... lol - this has been your nightly disaster cast.
My take on the scratch is two opposing vortices dropped into the eye (with slight expansion of eye) opposing balance/conserve angular momentum. I take that as another sign of growth.
EDIT:
del-I'm betting growth and E/ESE ...del
EDIT BELOW:
Missed the stupendous growth phase while writing.
Mark of Thor @ 745
Probably sounded like it to the Cap Verdeans
Keeps getting bigger but looks to be trying to close off the eye (can see curve)
@ 1015 UTC (5am EDT?)
Spoking and center clearly at or near 16.5N 30.5 W where she started the day.
For the sake of the Cap Verdeans I hope Lisa settles into a nice quiet annular hurricane and starts West.
Now I think may back up a little more then go WSW - along the flow lines...
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