Karl makes landfall near Veracruz; Igor slightly weaker

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:29 PM GMT on September 17, 2010

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Hurricane Karl made landfall on the Mexican coast ten miles north of Veracruz at 1pm EDT today as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Veracruz was on the weak (left) side of Karl's eyewall, and did not receive hurricane force winds, except perhaps at the extreme northern edge of the city. Winds at the Veracruz Airport, located on the west side of the city, peaked at sustained speeds of 46 mph, gusting to 58 mph, at 11:54am local time. Radar out of Alvarado shows that Karl has kept its eyewall intact well inland, even as the storm moves into the high mountains east of Mexico City. Karl was the first major hurricane on record in the Bay of Campeche--the region of the Gulf of Mexico bounded by the Yucatan Peninsula on the east. There were two other major hurricanes that grazed the northern edge of the Bay of Campeche, Hurricane Hilda of 1955 and Hurricane Charley of 1951, but Karl is by far the farthest south a major hurricane has been in the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane records go back to 1851, but Karl is a small storm and could have gotten missed as being a major hurricane before the age of aircraft reconnaissance (1945).


Figure 1. Tracks of all major hurricanes since 1851 near Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Karl is most southerly storm on record in the Gulf of Mexico. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

With Karl's ascension to major hurricane status, we are now ahead of the pace of the terrible hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005 for number of major hurricanes so early in the year. In 2005, the fifth major hurricane (Rita) did not occur until September 21, and in 2004, the fifth major hurricane (Karl) arrived on September 19. Wunderblogger Cotillion has put together a nice page showing all the seasons with five or more major hurricanes. The last time we had five major hurricanes earlier in the season was in 1961, when the fifth major hurricane (Esther) arrived on September 13. This morning we continue to have three simultaneous hurricanes, Hurricanes Igor, Julia, and Karl. This is a rare phenomena, having occurred only eight previous years since 1851. The last time we had three simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic was in 1998. That year also had four simultaneous hurricanes--Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl--for a brief time on September 25. There has been just one other case of four simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes, on August 22, 1893. The year 2005 came within six hours of having three hurricanes at the same time, but the official data base constructed after the season was over indicates that the three hurricanes did not exist simultaneously.

Also remarkable this year is that are seeing major hurricanes in rare or unprecedented locations. Julia was the strongest hurricane on record so far east, Karl was the strongest hurricane so far south in the Gulf of Mexico, and Earl was the 4th strongest Atlantic hurricane so far north. This unusual major hurricane activity is likely due, in part, to the record Atlantic sea surface temperatures this year.


Figure 2. Hurricane Karl as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite at 12:20 pm CDT on Thursday, September 16, 2010. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 3. Radar image of Karl at landfall in Mexico. Image credit: Mexican Weather Service.

Impact of Karl on Mexico
Given that the Bay of Campeche coast has never experienced a hurricane as strong as Karl, its impact is likely to cause major damage to a 50-mile wide coastal area beginning ten miles north of Veracruz. Fortunately, the coast is not heavily populated there, and is not particularly low-lying, so the 12 - 15 foot storm surge will not be the major concern from Karl. The main concern will be flooding from Karl's torrential rains. The region has been hit by three Category 2 hurricanes over the past 55 years, and two of these storms caused flooding that killed hundreds. The strongest hurricanes in history to affect the region were Item in 1950, with 110 mph winds, Janet in 1955, with 100 mph winds, and Diana of 1990, with 100 mph winds. Flooding from Janet killed over 800 people in Mexico. and flooding from Diana killed at least 139 people. Karl's high winds are also a major concern, and these winds are likely to extensive damage.

Igor
The Hurricane Hunters just left Hurricane Igor, and found that the hurricane has continued to slowly weaken. On their last pass through the eye of Igor at 1:49 pm EDT, an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft found a central pressure of 947 mb. The eyewall was missing a chunk on its southwest side. Top winds at the surface as seen by their SFMR instrument were barely Category 1 strength, 76 mph, though the aircraft did see 117 mph winds at 10,000 feet, which suggests the surface winds were probably of Category 2 strength, 105 mph.


Figure 4. Hurricane Igor as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite at 10:50 am EDT on Thursday, September 16, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Igor's impact on Bermuda
Hurricane warnings are now flying for Bermuda, and tropical storm force winds will arrive at the island late Saturday night. Igor is a huge storm, and tropical storm force winds extend out 290 miles to the north of its center. As the hurricane moves north, it will expand in size, as it takes advantage of the extra spin available at higher latitudes due to Earth's rotation. By Saturday night, Igor's tropical storm force winds are expected to extend outwards 320 miles from the center. Igor will be moving at about 11 - 13 mph during the final 24 hours of its approach to Bermuda, so the island can expect a period of 39+ mph tropical storm force winds to begin near midnight Saturday night--a full 24 hours before the core of Igor arrives. Igor will speed up to about 15 mph as it passes the island near midnight Sunday night, and Bermuda's battering by tropical storm force winds will not be as long as Igor moves away, perhaps 10 hours long. Hurricane force winds will probably extend out about 70 miles from the center when the core of Igor reaches Bermuda, and the island can expect to be pounded by hurricane force winds for up to 6 - 8 hours. In all, Bermuda is likely to suffer a remarkably long 36-hour period of tropical storm force winds, with the potential for many hours of hurricane force winds. Long duration poundings like this are very stressful for buildings, and there is the potential for significant damage on Bermuda. However, buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and if Igor weakens to Category 2 strength, as appears likely, damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. According to AIR Worldwide, "Homes in Bermuda are typically one or two stories and constructed of 'Bermuda Stone,' a locally quarried limestone, or of concrete blocks. Roofs are commonly made of limestone slate tiles cemented together. Commercial buildings, typically of reinforced concrete construction, rarely exceed six stories. In both residential and commercial buildings, window openings are generally small and window shutters are common. These features make Bermuda's building stock quite resistant to winds, and homes are designed to withstand sustained winds of 110 mph and gusts of up to 150 mph."

Bermuda's hurricane history
Igor is similar in strength and projected track to Hurricane Fabian of 2003. Fabian hit Bermuda as a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. It was the most damaging hurricane ever to hit the island, with $355 million in damage. Fabian's storm surge killed four people crossing a causeway on the island. These were the first hurricane deaths on Bermuda since 1926. The most powerful hurricane on record to strike Bermuda was the Category 4 Havana-Bermuda Hurricane, which hit on October 22, 1926, with 135 mph winds. The hurricane sank two British warships, claiming 88 lives, but no one was killed on the island. The deadliest hurricane to affect the island occurred on September 12, 1839, when a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds and an 11-foot storm surge hit, tearing off the roofs of hundreds of buildings and wrecking several ships. An estimated 100 people were killed (source: Encyclopedia of Hurricanes, Typhoons, and Cyclones, by David Longshore.)

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands, is disorganized, but has the potential for some slow development over the next few days. The NOGAPS model develops this wave into a tropical depression 4 - 5 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday.

I'll have a new post on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting hydrus:
I am afraid there will be more where that came from. It is only my prediction, The Gulf of Mexico region will have two hits in October and one in November. Of course I do not want it to happen. But the ingredients are there.

Agreed. I think we're just getting started. The High saved us Texas this time, but it's not hanging out much longer.
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Quoting dmaddox:
from SHV AFD: AS KARL DISSIPATES INLAND...AND
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OFF OF
GULF...AND CAN BEGIN TO INTRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLD POPS FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST...WHICH MAY ALSO CONTAIN REMNANT MOISTURE FROM
KARL. THIS SHIFT IN THE RIDGE MAY ALSO PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY MORE
FAVORABLE TRACK FOR ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORMS TO SQUEEZE INTO THE GULF.

Not what I wanted to hear either...The set up that StormW has been talking about looks like it may be coming into play now...YIKES!
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246. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
TY ファナピ (T1011)
================================

SUBJECT: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 21:00 PM UTC, Typhoon Fanapi (950 hPa) located at 23.3N 126.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 9 knots

Dvorak Intensity:

Storm Force Winds
=================
85 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
180 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 24.0N 122.2E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Very Strong Typhoon)
45 HRS: 23.8N 118.4E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
69 HRS: 24.2N 114.1E - Tropical Depression
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44854
Quoting muddertracker:


The end of that run looks terrible for the GOMEX...No thanks!
I am afraid there will be more where that came from. It is only my prediction, The Gulf of Mexico region will have two hits in October and one in November. Of course I do not want it to happen. But the ingredients are there.
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Quoting KATRINABILOXIGIRL:
yeah I agree with you. was just looking at it myself and don't like alot of what I see either...

I don't think anyone needs to unbuckle their seatbelt yet. A few on here have been suggesting that the season's over. Not smart, imho. Things tend to happen in a hurry this time of year, especially when the storms are "home grown," so to speak. Heads up!
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It's about to get real interesting...
Igor's backside (the N-S line from ~10 to 30N that has been there for a full 24 hr day) is breaking up and bridging has started between Igor's NE quadrant outer spiral and Julia. Julia seems to go straight W in last few frames of Central Atlantic GOES sat vids. Will Igor eat Julia, fling Julia or reach a new meta-stasis?

LOL - IMHO Igor's eye is bigger than Julia - it seems she will be eaten ...
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 84
Quoting muddertracker:


The end of that run looks terrible for the GOMEX...No thanks!
yeah I agree with you. was just looking at it myself and don't like alot of what I see either...
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from SHV AFD: AS KARL DISSIPATES INLAND...AND
RIDGE SHIFTS EAST...FLOW WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY OFF OF
GULF...AND CAN BEGIN TO INTRODUCE AT LEAST ISOLD POPS FROM THE
SOUTH AND WEST...WHICH MAY ALSO CONTAIN REMNANT MOISTURE FROM
KARL. THIS SHIFT IN THE RIDGE MAY ALSO PRODUCE A POTENTIALLY MORE
FAVORABLE TRACK FOR ATLANTIC TROPICAL STORMS TO SQUEEZE INTO THE GULF.

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Levi,

I live in San Antonio and we are getting pounded at the moment from that stuff coming off the low in the NW gulf. Potent is an understatement. I would not be surprised at all if it develops.
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Quoting asgolfr999:


Imagine a trough is exactly that, like a rain gutter, and a ridge exactly that, a raised area which is difficult to traverse. When a low, which you should imagine to be fluid, reaches a trough, it attempts to run away into it, just like a gutter, when it encounters a ridge, it cannot go through so it goes around. That's how i always simplify it to myself, helps me remember, and if I am ridiculously wrong there are many here who are qualified to correct me.

exactly the case. I like to use mud as an analogy.
Think of different thicknesses of mud at different layers..Like when Alex was turned towards the W right before he hit land..a mid level high( thick mud) was poured onto the low level mud to his north. Think of the hurricane as a spinning top of mostly dried thick mud. Now a big spinning top of thick mud will spin through thin mud( low pressure) or even push through or trip over a thin layer of thick mud( surface high pressure) but will get pushed away from that thick mud almost as high as he is. But a trough is like a foot print in the mud and the top spins right into it and if it is "deep" enough will carry the top along.
Also the troughs get created all the time by low pressure systems in the upper latittudes.
A lot of the time the trough that is forecast to pick up and re-curve a hurricane has not even formed when the forecast comes outThis is what is confusing about Igor. There is a broad old footprint in the Western Atlantic between the East coast and 55W Some mud has flown into the bottom at this point but the top part is still open and Igor is spinning into it. The Low over the great lakes is going to form the trough(footprint) off the east coast that is finally supposed to be deep enough for Igor to fall into and get carried along with as it heads east across the ocean.

This is also why you need to also understand and look surface and upper air charts/forecasts. Start here.
http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/Atl_tab.shtml
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206. Levi,
Thanks. I was wondering about that.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I seriously doubt it. It seems synoptic pattern there, plus La Nina effects are keeping development potential to a far-below-average low this season. [which IMO is not terribly surprising]

It's really amazing to think that forecasters calling for 18 storms are likely to be correct this season.... with the potential of anywhere from 1 - 4 additional major storms before it's all over.....



Hey Baha.

Yeah, it'll be close, but after Igor departs stage right, things might calm down a little. Lisa might form (though whether it's a CV storm or a Caribbean issue remains to be seen) before the end of September. Hints are we won't see Nicole at least until next month. Matthew may be seen before the end of the month, but wouldn't be surprised if we didn't, either.

After such a frenetic period, things might chill a touch. Most seasons have that lull. 1998 is frequently held up as an example for this season (although, the figures will be different) and after that hectic timeframe, things cooled. After Karl, there was only one storm for 3 weeks - Lisa, which was fairly shortlived.

It's much more of a classic season, in my opinion, than a 1995 or 2005. A different atmosphere to it. Those were relentless from day one.

I do agree that another major hurricane is likely to be seen yet, though. (Personally, despite the time differences over sea, Julia was much more of a surprise to reach major status than Karl was. As soon as Karl immediately went to 50mph after leaving the Yucatan, you just had that sinking feeling...)
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Quoting hydrus:
Did you see this?Link


The end of that run looks terrible for the GOMEX...No thanks!
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Quoting atmoaggie:
Igor is still trying, ehh, a little better presentation than earlier:
Really, REALLY don't like the fact that The Bahamas is still visible in this image of Igor.... lol

But I agree on the improved appearance. Do u think we are likely to see another round of strengthening overnight?
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Quoting cat5hurricane:
Karl rapid scan Infrared link below:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop_srso.asp?data_folder=goes-r_proving_ground/g15_ srso_ir&width=600&height=600
Did you see this?Link
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Quoting BahaHurican:
mty, what's the status in Monterrey post-Alex??? I haven't heard so much about how the city is recovering. And now it seems another area of Mexico will be hit by storms......


Well, most of the affected areas have been or are been reconstructed. Good thing, new investments are happening at the city and the renovation of many hard-hit areas during Alex are about to start transforming them into better places than they were before. Bad thing, the river has still lots of debris and the Santa Catarina's river bed it's 4 meter higher than it was before so if a tropical system like Karl or Alex was to hit again it would create real trouble for the mid-section of the city. Also many families still live as refugees due to the destruction of their homes and the government is still looking for the right spot to relocate them into safer zones. Total damages are estimated in 1.5 billion dollars. Yet, we're recovering faster than I thought. Alex gave us the opportunity to rebuilt our city and transform it into a newer and better one.

Thanks for your concern, if anything happens at the NW Mexico the remainder of the season, I'll keep you updated as same as I think btwntx08 will. :)
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I sure hope that nothing forms out of that mess in the GOMEX...it's pouring right now in Cedar Park, and we definitely don't need it!
btw,

Other Featured Blogs:

◦LRandyB's Tropical Weather Discussion
•RickyRood's Climate Change Blog
◦sullivanweather's Northeast Weather Blog
◦Portlight Disaster Relief Blog

Did I miss something?
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229. beell

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
120 PM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 347 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010/

DISCUSSION...
A WEAKNESS AT 500 MB OVER THE WESTERN GULF WILL SHIFT WEST LATER
THIS MORNING. THIS FEATURE COUPLED WITH PW VALUES AROUND 2.2
INCHES OVER THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE REGION SHOULD SET THE STAGE
FOR SHRA/TSRA TODAY.

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 922 AM CDT FRI SEP 17 2010/

UPDATE...
LOW AND MID LEVEL TROUGH EXTENDS FROM HURRICANE KARL IN THE
SOUTHERN GULF NORTHWARD TO THE UPPER TEXAS COAST...
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Quoting StormSurgeon:


I'm sure you have ample knowledge. In the meantime, we're glad to have you around to field questions...wink, wink. You think Karl has a shot at re-development in the Pacific?
I seriously doubt it. It seems synoptic pattern there, plus La Nina effects are keeping development potential to a far-below-average low this season. [which IMO is not terribly surprising]

It's really amazing to think that forecasters calling for 18 storms are likely to be correct this season.... with the potential of anywhere from 1 - 4 additional major storms before it's all over.....

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Quoting Levi32:
Don't be surprised to see a potent little surface low develop within the "outer spiral bands" of Karl, southeast of Brownsville. They aren't really Karl's bands but are more just the envelope of low pressure extending north of the hurricane.

Remember, the area of greatest ventilation has always been to the north of Karl, which is part of why he had issues coming in towards the coast and didn't ramp up to his full potential. Had he been 300-400 miles farther north, he would have been a Cat 4-5 by the time he reached the Mexican/Texas coast.

This area is very favorable for lowering pressures at the surface and you can see all the thunderstorms going off. It's not a big deal except for heavy rain, but don't be surprised to see low pressure form there, almost like a split-off from Karl on the opposite end of the low pressure envelope.



WHOA!!! slams brakes on! Where did that come from? Talk about not seeing the forest for the trees. I'm never gonna catch up.
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From Dr. Master's Previous Blogs

August 12:

So, what is causing this quiet tropical cyclone season? One possibility is that since Northern Hemisphere land areas have heated up to record temperatures this summer, this has created strong rising motion over the continents. This rising motion must be compensated by strong sinking motion over the adjacent oceans in order to conserve mass. Sinking air causes drying and an increase in stability. Another possibility is that the unusual jet stream configuration that is responsible for the Russia heat wave and record flooding in Pakistan is also bringing dry, stable air to the Northern Hemisphere's tropical cyclone breeding grounds. It is also possible that climate change is causing the reduction in tropical cyclone activity, for a variety of complex reasons. Computer simulations of a future warmer climate generally show a reduction in global number of tropical cyclones (though the strongest storms get stronger), and it is possible we are seeing a preview of that future climate. Or, this year's quietness may simply be natural variability. It will be interesting to see when the Russian heat wave breaks if vertical instability over the Atlantic increases back to normal levels. Current forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models project the Russian heat wave to break late next week.

August 15:

All of the major models have been predicting a major pattern shift in the global atmosphere late this week, which leads to breakdown of the Russian heat wave and the start of the Cape Verdes hurricane season. The models have been consistently predicting a tropical storm will form off the coast of Africa late this week, and track west-northwestward across the Atlantic. As usual, it is highly uncertain what track a storm that has yet to form might take.

I met somebody last night who is also a hurricane junky. We discussed this season in terms of Dr. Master's observations, especially the August 15 tidbit. No, she was not familiar with this site... but then there is the... oh, I better not say it component.

Yah, Russian heat wave breaks down and then 5 majors, a Gaston, and fish, and a Hermana. Gaston, oh la la... quelle force!


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224. JeffM
Getting some feeder bands from Karl all the way up in San Antonio right now. Wind picked up a bit and news says possibility of tornados with severe storms.
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Quoting Patrap:

Karl is a Small tightly wound circulation and will take some time to be unwound from the Mts,,but its occurring already in the Loops.

The Cities on the Downslope sides Like mexico City will have flash flooding to contend with most likely.

Landfall is just a moment in a storms Life as at that time Half the Storm is well inland generally.

So I always tell folks to look for the onset of TS force winds and not when the center crosses.

Thats a tracking point only.


Yes there's always more to it than the exact point of landfall. That is of course a horrible place to be. But those threats are more widely known and prepared for than other threats farther inland. My heart goes out to Mexico. I've seen what a cat 3 can do. Even cat 1 Humberto dropped almost 15 inches of rain here. We flood but are on completely flat land here so we don't face the threat of mudslides. Just another nightmare to add to the list when it comes to tropical storms and hurricanes. I hope there will not be large loss of life. Because I also know that you can move on and rebuild. If you are just around to do it.
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221. Skyepony (Mod)
Cloudsat on TYPHOON INDAY (FANAPI)


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Quoting Dakster:
Sorry. Robert M320... Wiki says 7 Million and it is the third most populos city in mexico..

"The population of 7 million is the third largest in Mexico."

Go here: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Veracruz





That's for the entire state of Veracruz, not the city itself.

(EDIT: Note to self, do not reply unless you're already on the last page of comments. Whoops, didn't mean to pile on!)
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Hurricane Karl plows into Mexico mainland, weakens
By the CNN Wire Staff
September 17, 2010 2:43 p.m. EDT



Mexico City, Mexico (CNN) -- Hurricane Karl weakened Friday afternoon after making landfall, but the heavy rain and storm surge it spawned still could pose significant problems in the Mexican interior, forecasters said.

Karl was a Category 3 storm when it came ashore about 10 miles (15 kilometers) north of Veracruz, Mexico, CNN's satellite and radar estimates showed, but is now classified Category 2.

The storm delivered torrents of rain and fierce winds several hours before it arrived around 11:30 a.m. (12:30 p.m. ET).

Maximum sustained winds at landfall were near 110 mph (175 kph) with higher gusts, according to the National Hurricane Center. The hurricane was moving west at about 8 mph (13 kph), it said.

The homes of at least 3,000 families in central Mexico were damaged, the state-run Notimex news agency reported.


At 1 p.m. Karl was 15 miles (25 kilometers) west of Veracruz.

High winds and seas could be a threat to oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico, said CNN meteorologist Chad Myers.

"A dangerous storm surge will raise water levels by as much as 12 to 15 feet above normal tide levels along the immediate coast near and to the north of where the center makes landfall," the Hurricane Center said. "Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves."

Potentially dangerous rain also is forecast.

"Karl is expected to produce rainfall accumulations of 5 to 10 inches across the central and southern Mexican Gulf coast region with isolated amounts of 15 inches possible in the interior mountains," the center said. "These rains could cause life-threatening flash floods and mudslides."

Some local flooding had already been reported, the Mexican Interior Ministry said.

Officials closed some roads and urged evacuations for large areas.

Mexico's National System for Civil Protection issued a red alert, the highest level, for central and southern Veracruz. An orange alert was in place for northern Veracruz and the states of Hidalgo, Tlaxcala and Puebla. A yellow alert was issued for the states of Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosi and Oaxaca.

Mexican President Felipe Calderon also issued a warning Friday morning on his Twitter account.

"An alert for Hurricane Karl in the nation's central states," Calderon said. "(It) could convert to a Category 4. It will enter through Veracruz around midday."

Texas could be spared any major problems because a storm surge occurs only near the landfall location, said CNN meteorologist Sean Morris.

Coastal flood advisories have been issued for south Texas, which means forecasters expect a small amount of coastal flooding but nothing serious, Morris said.

A larger threat to south Texas will come from several inches of rain that could cause flooding and mudslides. The area could see as much as 4 inches by Sunday, with isolated amounts of up to 6 inches in far southern Texas.
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Igor is still trying, ehh, a little better presentation than earlier:
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 6 Comments: 12461
Quoting Levi32:
Don't be surprised to see a potent little surface low develop within the "outer spiral bands" of Karl, southeast of Brownsville. They aren't really Karl's bands but are more just the envelope of low pressure extending north of the hurricane.

Remember, the area of greatest ventilation has always been to the north of Karl, which is part of why he had issues coming in towards the coast and didn't ramp up to his full potential. Had he been 300-400 miles farther north, he would have been a Cat 4-5 by the time he reached the Mexican/Texas coast.

This area is very favorable for lowering pressures at the surface and you can see all the thunderstorms going off. It's not a big deal except for heavy rain, but don't be surprised to see low pressure form there, almost like a split-off from Karl on the opposite end of the low pressure envelope.

If that occurs, which way do you think it would move?
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Quoting Levi32:
Don't be surprised to see a potent little surface low develop within the "outer spiral bands" of Karl, southeast of Brownsville. They aren't really Karl's bands but are more just the envelope of low pressure extending north of the hurricane.

Remember, the area of greatest ventilation has always been to the north of Karl, which is part of why he had issues coming in towards the coast and didn't ramp up to his full potential. Had he been 300-400 miles farther north, he would have been a Cat 4-5 by the time he reached the Mexican/Texas coast.

This area is very favorable for lowering pressures at the surface and you can see all the thunderstorms going off. It's not a big deal except for heavy rain, but don't be surprised to see low pressure form there, almost like a split-off from Karl on the opposite end of the low pressure envelope.



is that convection that has gone into Texas over the last 24 hours, Karl's spiral bands?
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Quoting Levi32:
Don't be surprised to see a potent little surface low develop within the "outer spiral bands" of Karl, southeast of Brownsville. They aren't really Karl's bands but are more just the envelope of low pressure extending north of the hurricane.

Remember, the area of greatest ventilation has always been to the north of Karl, which is part of why he had issues coming in towards the coast and didn't ramp up to his full potential. Had he been 300-400 miles farther north, he would have been a Cat 4-5 by the time he reached the Mexican/Texas coast.

This area is very favorable for lowering pressures at the surface and you can see all the thunderstorms going off. It's not a big deal except for heavy rain, but don't be surprised to see low pressure form there, almost like a split-off from Karl on the opposite end of the low pressure envelope.


I noticed this earlier and was wondering if it had a chance for development before it hit land.
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Quoting mtyweatherfan90:
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters!

Problem with Karl is that it's taking the worst possible scenario track to affect with heavy rainfall the densely populated central Mexico's region. Within the area of impact the cities of Veracruz, Puebla, Cuernavaca, Pachuca, Querétaro and even Mexico City and Toluca are at a high risk of feeling heavy tropical downpours. Records were broken last week with the unusual rainfall going on since August and September at the South of BOC. So any aditional rainfall could create havoc to the communities living in flood prone areas.

I'm hoping that nothing worse happens to our friends that live in those areas.
mty, what's the status in Monterrey post-Alex??? I haven't heard so much about how the city is recovering. And now it seems another area of Mexico will be hit by storms......
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Interesting...It appears Alex was actually a 110 mph, 946 mb. Category 2 Hurricane at landfall, one mph away from Category 3.

Source
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Quoting LeMoyne:

IMHO Igor shucked the first ridge by growing.
Igor obviously trying for bigger eye - new EW was about that monstrous at 1200z in MIMIC (button on left panel)
If you look at MIMIC-IR structure disappears as of about now 1900-2000z but I bet that is just masking from outflow so morph algorithm fails...


Interesting...can't tell at the end of the loop if it's a smaller or larger eye forming.
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IGOR Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop

TFP's are available.
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Quoting RobertM320:


Cotillion, would some of that have anything to do that 'Canes starting with G and I usually come much later in the season than those with A,B,C? Just maybe?


I had my tongue firmly planted in my cheek.
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Don't be surprised to see a potent little surface low develop within the "outer spiral bands" of Karl, southeast of Brownsville. They aren't really Karl's bands but are more just the envelope of low pressure extending north of the hurricane.

Remember, the area of greatest ventilation has always been to the north of Karl, which is part of why he had issues coming in towards the coast and didn't ramp up to his full potential. Had he been 300-400 miles farther north, he would have been a Cat 4-5 by the time he reached the Mexican/Texas coast.

This area is very favorable for lowering pressures at the surface and you can see all the thunderstorms going off. It's not a big deal except for heavy rain, but don't be surprised to see low pressure form there, almost like a split-off from Karl on the opposite end of the low pressure envelope.

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Ike,Katrina,and Gustav were all Large Hurricanes ,,

But at the end of the day,,its the IMPACT that counts,always.
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I've had a horrible day today, but its good to see that the Admin is removing all posts off the topic of weather (See post #68), which means I won't have to deal with trolls.

I see the streak of hurricanes continues, and that our yellow circle is still at 10%. Jim Cantore is on the way to Bermuda, I'll have to watch TWC when Igor passes by the island.
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Quoting Cotillion:


Well, you look at the names for the biggest cyclones...

FaIth.
GabrIelle
Igor
GIlbert
Isabel
DorIs

ConspIracy!


Cotillion, would some of that have anything to do that 'Canes starting with G and I usually come much later in the season than those with A,B,C? Just maybe?
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NE - 300
SW - 200

Total 500 NM

Convert to Miles is 575.39 miles (926 kilometres)
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Quoting FlyingScotsman:


You're forgetting that it doesn't extend 345 miles on all sides--345 miles is on the NE side only. So it's probably less than 600 right now, but is supposed to keep growing...

Someone has put it on Wikipedia as having a Gale Diameter of 518 miles, but I don't know where they got that from.


that was from the previous advisory
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Quoting BahaHurican:
This reminds me. Anybody heard from CycloneOz? I remember he went out to Bermuda for one of the storms in 08 or 09 but didn't get much footage. I'd be curious to know if he's attempting to intercept Igor.
n

No Baha funds got him this time
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Making a summary through the first half off the season. We can see that the major concentration of tracks have been in the eastern-central pacific as typical cape-verde systems and the west GOM this year. I can't remember a season with 4 landfalls in the western GOM. And surprisingly enough the caribbean has been unusually quiet allowing for record TCHPs.





Let's hope the last half of the season shows more fish, and less hits for us in the Western Gulf and those in Bermuda which could get real damage from Igor.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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