Karl makes landfall near Veracruz; Igor slightly weaker

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:29 PM GMT on September 17, 2010

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Hurricane Karl made landfall on the Mexican coast ten miles north of Veracruz at 1pm EDT today as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Veracruz was on the weak (left) side of Karl's eyewall, and did not receive hurricane force winds, except perhaps at the extreme northern edge of the city. Winds at the Veracruz Airport, located on the west side of the city, peaked at sustained speeds of 46 mph, gusting to 58 mph, at 11:54am local time. Radar out of Alvarado shows that Karl has kept its eyewall intact well inland, even as the storm moves into the high mountains east of Mexico City. Karl was the first major hurricane on record in the Bay of Campeche--the region of the Gulf of Mexico bounded by the Yucatan Peninsula on the east. There were two other major hurricanes that grazed the northern edge of the Bay of Campeche, Hurricane Hilda of 1955 and Hurricane Charley of 1951, but Karl is by far the farthest south a major hurricane has been in the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane records go back to 1851, but Karl is a small storm and could have gotten missed as being a major hurricane before the age of aircraft reconnaissance (1945).


Figure 1. Tracks of all major hurricanes since 1851 near Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Karl is most southerly storm on record in the Gulf of Mexico. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

With Karl's ascension to major hurricane status, we are now ahead of the pace of the terrible hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005 for number of major hurricanes so early in the year. In 2005, the fifth major hurricane (Rita) did not occur until September 21, and in 2004, the fifth major hurricane (Karl) arrived on September 19. Wunderblogger Cotillion has put together a nice page showing all the seasons with five or more major hurricanes. The last time we had five major hurricanes earlier in the season was in 1961, when the fifth major hurricane (Esther) arrived on September 13. This morning we continue to have three simultaneous hurricanes, Hurricanes Igor, Julia, and Karl. This is a rare phenomena, having occurred only eight previous years since 1851. The last time we had three simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic was in 1998. That year also had four simultaneous hurricanes--Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl--for a brief time on September 25. There has been just one other case of four simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes, on August 22, 1893. The year 2005 came within six hours of having three hurricanes at the same time, but the official data base constructed after the season was over indicates that the three hurricanes did not exist simultaneously.

Also remarkable this year is that are seeing major hurricanes in rare or unprecedented locations. Julia was the strongest hurricane on record so far east, Karl was the strongest hurricane so far south in the Gulf of Mexico, and Earl was the 4th strongest Atlantic hurricane so far north. This unusual major hurricane activity is likely due, in part, to the record Atlantic sea surface temperatures this year.


Figure 2. Hurricane Karl as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite at 12:20 pm CDT on Thursday, September 16, 2010. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 3. Radar image of Karl at landfall in Mexico. Image credit: Mexican Weather Service.

Impact of Karl on Mexico
Given that the Bay of Campeche coast has never experienced a hurricane as strong as Karl, its impact is likely to cause major damage to a 50-mile wide coastal area beginning ten miles north of Veracruz. Fortunately, the coast is not heavily populated there, and is not particularly low-lying, so the 12 - 15 foot storm surge will not be the major concern from Karl. The main concern will be flooding from Karl's torrential rains. The region has been hit by three Category 2 hurricanes over the past 55 years, and two of these storms caused flooding that killed hundreds. The strongest hurricanes in history to affect the region were Item in 1950, with 110 mph winds, Janet in 1955, with 100 mph winds, and Diana of 1990, with 100 mph winds. Flooding from Janet killed over 800 people in Mexico. and flooding from Diana killed at least 139 people. Karl's high winds are also a major concern, and these winds are likely to extensive damage.

Igor
The Hurricane Hunters just left Hurricane Igor, and found that the hurricane has continued to slowly weaken. On their last pass through the eye of Igor at 1:49 pm EDT, an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft found a central pressure of 947 mb. The eyewall was missing a chunk on its southwest side. Top winds at the surface as seen by their SFMR instrument were barely Category 1 strength, 76 mph, though the aircraft did see 117 mph winds at 10,000 feet, which suggests the surface winds were probably of Category 2 strength, 105 mph.


Figure 4. Hurricane Igor as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite at 10:50 am EDT on Thursday, September 16, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Igor's impact on Bermuda
Hurricane warnings are now flying for Bermuda, and tropical storm force winds will arrive at the island late Saturday night. Igor is a huge storm, and tropical storm force winds extend out 290 miles to the north of its center. As the hurricane moves north, it will expand in size, as it takes advantage of the extra spin available at higher latitudes due to Earth's rotation. By Saturday night, Igor's tropical storm force winds are expected to extend outwards 320 miles from the center. Igor will be moving at about 11 - 13 mph during the final 24 hours of its approach to Bermuda, so the island can expect a period of 39+ mph tropical storm force winds to begin near midnight Saturday night--a full 24 hours before the core of Igor arrives. Igor will speed up to about 15 mph as it passes the island near midnight Sunday night, and Bermuda's battering by tropical storm force winds will not be as long as Igor moves away, perhaps 10 hours long. Hurricane force winds will probably extend out about 70 miles from the center when the core of Igor reaches Bermuda, and the island can expect to be pounded by hurricane force winds for up to 6 - 8 hours. In all, Bermuda is likely to suffer a remarkably long 36-hour period of tropical storm force winds, with the potential for many hours of hurricane force winds. Long duration poundings like this are very stressful for buildings, and there is the potential for significant damage on Bermuda. However, buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and if Igor weakens to Category 2 strength, as appears likely, damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. According to AIR Worldwide, "Homes in Bermuda are typically one or two stories and constructed of 'Bermuda Stone,' a locally quarried limestone, or of concrete blocks. Roofs are commonly made of limestone slate tiles cemented together. Commercial buildings, typically of reinforced concrete construction, rarely exceed six stories. In both residential and commercial buildings, window openings are generally small and window shutters are common. These features make Bermuda's building stock quite resistant to winds, and homes are designed to withstand sustained winds of 110 mph and gusts of up to 150 mph."

Bermuda's hurricane history
Igor is similar in strength and projected track to Hurricane Fabian of 2003. Fabian hit Bermuda as a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. It was the most damaging hurricane ever to hit the island, with $355 million in damage. Fabian's storm surge killed four people crossing a causeway on the island. These were the first hurricane deaths on Bermuda since 1926. The most powerful hurricane on record to strike Bermuda was the Category 4 Havana-Bermuda Hurricane, which hit on October 22, 1926, with 135 mph winds. The hurricane sank two British warships, claiming 88 lives, but no one was killed on the island. The deadliest hurricane to affect the island occurred on September 12, 1839, when a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds and an 11-foot storm surge hit, tearing off the roofs of hundreds of buildings and wrecking several ships. An estimated 100 people were killed (source: Encyclopedia of Hurricanes, Typhoons, and Cyclones, by David Longshore.)

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands, is disorganized, but has the potential for some slow development over the next few days. The NOGAPS model develops this wave into a tropical depression 4 - 5 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday.

I'll have a new post on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting atmoaggie:
!?!?!

http://www.reliefweb.int/rw/rwb.nsf/db900SID/EDIS-89DP3D?OpenDocument

Haiti: Storm surge warning issued for north coast

The Haitian Red Cross has warned communities living along the country's north coast of a potentially dangerous storm surge over the coming days.
...
According to the DPC, the storm surge could be as high as 14 feet (four metres) %u2013 potentially affecting thousands of people who live along the coast. The surge is the result of water being pushed South and South West by Hurricane Igor, which is now heading north up the United States' Atlantic Coast.

atmo: Uhh, I hope that's bullsh.. The storm surge modeler in me says it is. 2 - 4 feet, yeah, maybe. 14 feet?


Wonder if they are confusing wave height or swell with surge.
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2147. alcomat
Quoting Inactivity:


Appears to have lasted for 4-6 hours so far.
just 20 more hours to go! lol
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2146. SQUAWK
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
its been removed as per demands from a simple mind i always thought this was jeff masters place but you know

as for what it means its complete info on storm from current info to future info and all the points its travel in between


OK, thanks Keep.
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Igor reminds me of Alex,wind speeds are a category lower than the pressure.
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Quoting RecordSeason:
What was Igor's current IKE number?

What was Igor's maximum IKE number?


Okay, here we go with Igor's 1330z numbers:

IKE for winds greater than TS force: 143 Tj
IKE for winds greater than HU force: 24 Tj
Destructive Potential Rating (0-6) Wind: 2.8, Surge/Waves 5.3*

IOW: Uh-oh.

* - By way of comparison, Katrina and Wilma at their peaks earned a 5.1 on this scale, and Ike earned a 5.2.
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Hi everyone, this is my first post to weather underground. I live southeast of Austin, TX and have been reading the blogs here for the past several weeks. I am a weather enthusiast (almost decided to become a meteorologist) but am now teaching physics and chemistry at a local highschool. My area has been pretty dry all summer and the 5 inches of rain we received from Hermine were a wecome relief from the dry summer. My backyard saw another .5 inches of rain yesterday from a stray thunderstorm that popped up from the moisture coming into south TX from the Karl circulation. We will take all we can get. I am watching with interest the blow-up of convection SE of brownsville this morning.
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2138. hydrus
Quoting Inactivity:


Appears to have lasted for 4-6 hours so far.
The NCEP has FL getting hit pretty good and then Georgia...Link.
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2137. SQUAWK
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
WTNT01 KNGU 180901
WARNING ATCN MIL 11L NAT 100918082426

2010091806 11L IGOR 041 03 300 10 SATL 060
T000 248N 0625W 095 R064 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 155 NE QD 110 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD R034 300 NE QD 210 SE QD 200 SW QD 240 NW QD
T012 262N 0641W 100 R064 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 155 NE QD 110 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD R034 300 NE QD 210 SE QD 200 SW QD 240 NW QD
T024 278N 0651W 105 R064 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 155 NE QD 120 SE QD 130 SW QD 130 NW QD R034 300 NE QD 210 SE QD 200 SW QD 240 NW QD
T036 299N 0653W 100 R064 090 NE QD 060 SE QD 050 SW QD 070 NW QD R050 155 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD R034 300 NE QD 230 SE QD 210 SW QD 240 NW QD
T048 322N 0647W 095 R050 155 NE QD 140 SE QD 120 SW QD 130 NW QD R034 300 NE QD 250 SE QD 210 SW QD 240 NW QD
T072 385N 0585W 080 R050 140 NE QD 130 SE QD 120 SW QD 110 NW QD R034 300 NE QD 300 SE QD 270 SW QD 250 NW QD
T096 475N 0465W 065
T120 515N 0395W 055
AMP
NNNN
SUBJ: HURRICANE IGOR (11L) WARNING NR 041
1. HURRICANE IGOR (11L) WARNING NR 041
03 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN ATLANTIC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
180600Z --- NEAR 24.8N 62.5W
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 300 DEGREES AT 10 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 24.8N 62.5W
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 26.2N 64.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
190600Z --- 27.8N 65.1W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
200 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 29.9N 65.3W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 120 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
230 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 010 DEG/ 12 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
200600Z --- 32.2N 64.7W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 095 KT, GUSTS 115 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 155 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
250 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
210 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
240 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 035 DEG/ 20 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
210600Z --- 38.5N 58.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
110 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 300 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
300 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
270 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
250 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 040 DEG/ 31 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY
NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY.
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
220600Z --- 47.5N 46.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 15 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
230600Z --- 51.5N 39.5W
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
180900Z POSITION NEAR 25.1N 62.8W. OR APPROX 1010NM SE OF
NORFOLK. 12FT SEAS: 600NM NE, 540NM SE, 480NM SW, 600NM NW.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 181501Z, 182101Z, 190301Z AND 190901Z.
FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.//
BT
#0001
NNNN
1110090700 128N 189W 25
1110090706 132N 195W 25
1110090712 137N 201W 25
1110090718 140N 211W 25
1110090800 140N 219W 25
1110090806 139N 226W 30
1110090812 138N 233W 40
1110090818 138N 237W 40
1110090900 138N 242W 35
1110090906 138N 243W 35
1110090912 142N 245W 35
1110090918 149N 263W 35
1110091000 153N 274W 30
1110091006 159N 287W 30
1110091012 163N 304W 35
1110091018 166N 325W 40
1110091100 169N 348W 50
1110091100 169N 348W 50
1110091106 171N 370W 60
1110091106 171N 370W 60
1110091112 173N 387W 60
1110091112 173N 387W 60
1110091118 174N 404W 60
1110091118 174N 404W 60
1110091200 176N 419W 65
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1110091300 177N 473W 130
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1110091306 176N 483W 130
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1110091318 176N 502W 130
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1110091400 177N 508W 125
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1110091406 178N 514W 115
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1110091406 178N 514W 115
1110091412 181N 520W 115
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1110091418 185N 527W 125
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1110091500 189N 535W 135
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1110091506 192N 541W 125
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1110091512 195N 547W 115
1110091512 195N 547W 115
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1110091518 198N 553W 115
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1110091618 214N 578W 115
1110091700 218N 584W 115
1110091700 218N 584W 115
1110091700 218N 584W 115
1110091706 222N 591W 110
1110091706 222N 591W 110
1110091706 222N 591W 110
1110091712 228N 599W 100
1110091712 228N 599W 100
1110091712 228N 599W 100
1110091718 234N 607W 95
1110091718 234N 607W 95
1110091718 234N 607W 95
1110091800 243N 615W 95
1110091800 243N 615W 95
1110091800 243N 615W 95
1110091806 248N 625W 95
1110091806 248N 625W 95
1110091806 248N 625W 95



Wow! that is impressive Keep. What the heck does it all mean?
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2135. IKE
942.3 mb
(~ 27.83 inHg)


Recon on Igor.
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Quoting hydrus:
Munchies already Flood??...HHHHHAAAAA..Good morning by the way..:)


Happens when you don;t sleep...got to keep gong somehow...LOL

Okay kids, I'm out for a bit...work to do, don't you know
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2132. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
1030 AM CDT SAT SEP 18 2010

.SYNOPSIS...RIDGING WILL REMAIN JUST INLAND OVER THE N GULF
COAST STATES THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE WEAK TROUGHING DEVELOPS
EACH DAY IN THE FAR SW GULF NEAR THE COAST OF MEXICO.
.............................................

SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
1130 AM EDT SAT SEP 18 2010

.SYNOPSIS...HURRICANE IGOR NEAR 26.0N 63.6W 939 MB AT 1100 AM
AST MOVING NW OR 310 DEG AT 10 KT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS 95 KT
GUSTS 115 KT. IGOR WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE FURTHER AWAY FROM THE
TROPICAL N ATLC WATERS TODAY. OTHERWISE A WEAK AND ILL DEFINED
PRESSURE PATTERN WILL PERSIST OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA THROUGH MON
WITH EASTERLY TRADES RESUMING LATE TUE AND WED.
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Good morning all.
Nice to see so many familiar faces and a pleasant discussion going on.
Out to walk the poor dog and put up a pot for myself.
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2129. beell
Hey, the blog looks "normal" this morning. Good work, folks....

Western gulf feature seems to be mostly a mid-level thing. An inverted trough-drifting ever so slowly to the west. Shows up well at 500mb and also at 700mb. Hopefully, nothing more than a rainy weekend for S TX.

Photobucket

Link
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2128. hydrus
Quoting Floodman:


Donuts, baby...
Munchies already Flood??...HHHHHAAAAA..Good morning by the way..:)
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Quoting hydrus:
If it persisits for over 24 hours they will give it an invest number..The ECMWF shows the Bermuda High growing Huge...Link


Appears to have lasted for 4-6 hours so far.
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Quoting Patrap:


And this map appears the opposite. Confusing. Wish I understood all this better.
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Surface trough in the western GOM. Would certainly be something to see such a random development.
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2123. tkeith
Quoting Floodman:


Donuts, baby...
hold on.......couldn't type with my mouth full :)
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#2108 you notice the lack of a shallow shelf along the south and southeast Florida coast is right in alignment with the Gulf Stream.

The GS is deep and it comes really close to the shore in SE Florida. and where there is a long shallow shelf you do not have the GS..
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Quoting btwntx08:
nhc could mention it but im not seeing anything out of it
How much rain did ya'll end up with Hermine?
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Quoting tkeith:
I'm gettin the munchies just readin these posts...


Donuts, baby...
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2119. hydrus
After Igor splits, high pressure builds in quickly and low pressure all over the place south of 20 degrees....Link GFS.
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2117. Patrap
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting RecordSeason:
What was Igor's total ACE so far?

What was Igor's current IKE number?

What was Igor's maximum IKE number?


Igor's ACE: 36.4275
Igor's HDP: 34.1750

Not sure about IKE...
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2115. Patrap
Always a suspect area when one sees some outflow ,warm sst's and maybe some Genesis will occur.

Happened before there..in years past
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
Quoting aislinnpaps:


The spin on it in the graph you put up makes it appear to be pulling away from the coast.



thats what am seeing has well
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Quoting Patrap:


Dunno,,Im not a met,but the area will be watched closely Im sure.


The spin on it in the graph you put up makes it appear to be pulling away from the coast.
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2111. IKE
Quoting LongIslandXpress38:


I was in college when Opal blew up in '95 and remember Cantore saying that everyone was being distracted by the O.J. Simpson verdict..


Back when Cantore had hair and John Hope was the tropical expert on TWC.
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am giveing pre 95L a 50% ch in the gulf
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2106. Patrap
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Patrap,
Any chance this could develop into anything? I still remember waking up to Humberto.


Dunno,,Im not a met,but the area will be watched closely Im sure.
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
2104. Patrap
GOES JavaScript Animations,GOM and Western Atlantic,LARGE
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 426 Comments: 129093
The area in the Gulf w/ convection is moist all around and shear is low.Water is also warm,possible yellow circle at 2pm.
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Quoting Patrap:
GOM IR Loop de' Loop





Patrap,
Any chance this could develop into anything? I still remember waking up to Humberto.
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2101. hydrus
Quoting Inactivity:
Anyone? thoughts on this?

If it persisits for over 24 hours they will give it an invest number..The ECMWF shows the Bermuda High growing Huge...Link
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Quoting btwntx08:
2071. MrNatural 3:12 PM GMT on September 18, 2010
Quoting btwntx08:
theres hardly vorticity with that some and the closest vorticity is inland
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I suspect you are talking about the unsettled area in the western area of the GOM. I agree with you. And that small amount of vorticity s over land that is drifting to the west.. Not only that, it is very elongated north to south from s. Central Texas to N. Mexico. Lots of rain, but very little chance for tropical. storm development

yep mostly a rain event sorry about that earlier not fully awake yet

I understand, this area of disturbed weather looks menacing and convection is increasing hour by hour!!
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2099. Patrap

12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest94
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.