Karl makes landfall near Veracruz; Igor slightly weaker

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 8:29 PM GMT on September 17, 2010

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Hurricane Karl made landfall on the Mexican coast ten miles north of Veracruz at 1pm EDT today as a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Veracruz was on the weak (left) side of Karl's eyewall, and did not receive hurricane force winds, except perhaps at the extreme northern edge of the city. Winds at the Veracruz Airport, located on the west side of the city, peaked at sustained speeds of 46 mph, gusting to 58 mph, at 11:54am local time. Radar out of Alvarado shows that Karl has kept its eyewall intact well inland, even as the storm moves into the high mountains east of Mexico City. Karl was the first major hurricane on record in the Bay of Campeche--the region of the Gulf of Mexico bounded by the Yucatan Peninsula on the east. There were two other major hurricanes that grazed the northern edge of the Bay of Campeche, Hurricane Hilda of 1955 and Hurricane Charley of 1951, but Karl is by far the farthest south a major hurricane has been in the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane records go back to 1851, but Karl is a small storm and could have gotten missed as being a major hurricane before the age of aircraft reconnaissance (1945).


Figure 1. Tracks of all major hurricanes since 1851 near Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Karl is most southerly storm on record in the Gulf of Mexico. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

With Karl's ascension to major hurricane status, we are now ahead of the pace of the terrible hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005 for number of major hurricanes so early in the year. In 2005, the fifth major hurricane (Rita) did not occur until September 21, and in 2004, the fifth major hurricane (Karl) arrived on September 19. Wunderblogger Cotillion has put together a nice page showing all the seasons with five or more major hurricanes. The last time we had five major hurricanes earlier in the season was in 1961, when the fifth major hurricane (Esther) arrived on September 13. This morning we continue to have three simultaneous hurricanes, Hurricanes Igor, Julia, and Karl. This is a rare phenomena, having occurred only eight previous years since 1851. The last time we had three simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic was in 1998. That year also had four simultaneous hurricanes--Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl--for a brief time on September 25. There has been just one other case of four simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes, on August 22, 1893. The year 2005 came within six hours of having three hurricanes at the same time, but the official data base constructed after the season was over indicates that the three hurricanes did not exist simultaneously.

Also remarkable this year is that are seeing major hurricanes in rare or unprecedented locations. Julia was the strongest hurricane on record so far east, Karl was the strongest hurricane so far south in the Gulf of Mexico, and Earl was the 4th strongest Atlantic hurricane so far north. This unusual major hurricane activity is likely due, in part, to the record Atlantic sea surface temperatures this year.


Figure 2. Hurricane Karl as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite at 12:20 pm CDT on Thursday, September 16, 2010. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 3. Radar image of Karl at landfall in Mexico. Image credit: Mexican Weather Service.

Impact of Karl on Mexico
Given that the Bay of Campeche coast has never experienced a hurricane as strong as Karl, its impact is likely to cause major damage to a 50-mile wide coastal area beginning ten miles north of Veracruz. Fortunately, the coast is not heavily populated there, and is not particularly low-lying, so the 12 - 15 foot storm surge will not be the major concern from Karl. The main concern will be flooding from Karl's torrential rains. The region has been hit by three Category 2 hurricanes over the past 55 years, and two of these storms caused flooding that killed hundreds. The strongest hurricanes in history to affect the region were Item in 1950, with 110 mph winds, Janet in 1955, with 100 mph winds, and Diana of 1990, with 100 mph winds. Flooding from Janet killed over 800 people in Mexico. and flooding from Diana killed at least 139 people. Karl's high winds are also a major concern, and these winds are likely to extensive damage.

Igor
The Hurricane Hunters just left Hurricane Igor, and found that the hurricane has continued to slowly weaken. On their last pass through the eye of Igor at 1:49 pm EDT, an Air Force hurricane hunter aircraft found a central pressure of 947 mb. The eyewall was missing a chunk on its southwest side. Top winds at the surface as seen by their SFMR instrument were barely Category 1 strength, 76 mph, though the aircraft did see 117 mph winds at 10,000 feet, which suggests the surface winds were probably of Category 2 strength, 105 mph.


Figure 4. Hurricane Igor as seen by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite at 10:50 am EDT on Thursday, September 16, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Igor's impact on Bermuda
Hurricane warnings are now flying for Bermuda, and tropical storm force winds will arrive at the island late Saturday night. Igor is a huge storm, and tropical storm force winds extend out 290 miles to the north of its center. As the hurricane moves north, it will expand in size, as it takes advantage of the extra spin available at higher latitudes due to Earth's rotation. By Saturday night, Igor's tropical storm force winds are expected to extend outwards 320 miles from the center. Igor will be moving at about 11 - 13 mph during the final 24 hours of its approach to Bermuda, so the island can expect a period of 39+ mph tropical storm force winds to begin near midnight Saturday night--a full 24 hours before the core of Igor arrives. Igor will speed up to about 15 mph as it passes the island near midnight Sunday night, and Bermuda's battering by tropical storm force winds will not be as long as Igor moves away, perhaps 10 hours long. Hurricane force winds will probably extend out about 70 miles from the center when the core of Igor reaches Bermuda, and the island can expect to be pounded by hurricane force winds for up to 6 - 8 hours. In all, Bermuda is likely to suffer a remarkably long 36-hour period of tropical storm force winds, with the potential for many hours of hurricane force winds. Long duration poundings like this are very stressful for buildings, and there is the potential for significant damage on Bermuda. However, buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and if Igor weakens to Category 2 strength, as appears likely, damage on the island may be just a few million dollars. According to AIR Worldwide, "Homes in Bermuda are typically one or two stories and constructed of 'Bermuda Stone,' a locally quarried limestone, or of concrete blocks. Roofs are commonly made of limestone slate tiles cemented together. Commercial buildings, typically of reinforced concrete construction, rarely exceed six stories. In both residential and commercial buildings, window openings are generally small and window shutters are common. These features make Bermuda's building stock quite resistant to winds, and homes are designed to withstand sustained winds of 110 mph and gusts of up to 150 mph."

Bermuda's hurricane history
Igor is similar in strength and projected track to Hurricane Fabian of 2003. Fabian hit Bermuda as a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. It was the most damaging hurricane ever to hit the island, with $355 million in damage. Fabian's storm surge killed four people crossing a causeway on the island. These were the first hurricane deaths on Bermuda since 1926. The most powerful hurricane on record to strike Bermuda was the Category 4 Havana-Bermuda Hurricane, which hit on October 22, 1926, with 135 mph winds. The hurricane sank two British warships, claiming 88 lives, but no one was killed on the island. The deadliest hurricane to affect the island occurred on September 12, 1839, when a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds and an 11-foot storm surge hit, tearing off the roofs of hundreds of buildings and wrecking several ships. An estimated 100 people were killed (source: Encyclopedia of Hurricanes, Typhoons, and Cyclones, by David Longshore.)

Elsewhere in the tropics
A tropical wave off the coast of Africa, a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands, is disorganized, but has the potential for some slow development over the next few days. The NOGAPS model develops this wave into a tropical depression 4 - 5 days from now. NHC is giving the wave a 10% of developing into a tropical depression by Sunday.

I'll have a new post on Saturday.

Jeff Masters

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1148. AllBoardedUp
4:21 AM GMT on September 18, 2010
I taught public school for six years before I decided I had enough! I am presently in an occupation that doesn't require a degree. My salary now is between 2 to 3 times what I made as a teacher.

If anyone is interested (I know its not weather related) you should read "The Underground History of American Education" by John Taylor Gatto. He taught for 30 years in New York city public school system. He taught in some of the worst school, and he taught in some of the best schools in New York City.

He was named "Teacher of the Year" for the entire state of New York. He quit teaching the same year.

It took him 9 years of researching how formal or compulsory schooling came about in the United States. It is a book I feel every American should read, especially if you are considering becoming a teacher.

It can be read online.
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 626
1147. will40
4:20 AM GMT on September 18, 2010
The one you showed went out to sea
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4111
1146. MiamiHurricanes09
4:20 AM GMT on September 18, 2010
Quoting StormJunkie:
00z GFS at 108hrs...The system in the central Atl is what eventually, supposedly ends up in the GOM correct?

No that's a separate system. What you see there in the central Atlantic is the same system that is currently being monitored by the NHC. The system being developed by the GFS model in the Caribbean I have no clue where it comes from.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
1145. PrivateIdaho
4:20 AM GMT on September 18, 2010
Quoting Grecojdw:


I have a masters, but I do respect the on the job training that the military gives to their soldiers who fight for all of us in terms of a substitute for a degree. So yes, on the job training does sometimes count.
I am a former Marine who earned a BA in the military and a MS afterwards. Both experiences molded who I am an what I stand for. If nothing else, a degree indicates a level of commitment and being a Marine speaks for its self....good luck in you future endeavors.
Member Since: August 29, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5236
1144. flsky
4:20 AM GMT on September 18, 2010
Quoting LiveToFish0430:


thats how must of us with cf are. we are happy,we are stronger and more positive than most,and we never take anything for granted. its nice to meet someone out there who knows what cf is. i have to say,this is one of the last places i would of thought to meet a cf patient or parent and i was suprised when i saw your post earlier. i know this is a weather blog and people are probably tired of reading cf posts back and forth. but please dont hesitate to ask any questions you may have. i know how scary and difficult cf is,especially when you have a young one and it is still a fairly new learning experience to you. i have been dealing with it for 20 years and have learned a lot over this time and i feel like i owe it to anyone that needs help to help them in any way

This going to sound very uncaring, but this is blog inappropriate. Please take it to WU email.
Thanks
Member Since: October 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1915
1143. will40
4:20 AM GMT on September 18, 2010
Quoting StormJunkie:
00z GFS at 108hrs...The system in the central Atl is what eventually, supposedly ends up in the GOM correct?



earlier runs developed in the Carib
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4111
1142. WXTXN
4:19 AM GMT on September 18, 2010
Quoting angiest:


I am now starting to drift into a hydrocodone induced fog (been sick this week with a chest cough) and I am afraid I don't understand what you just said...

Useless degree...
Member Since: July 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 139
1141. angiest
4:19 AM GMT on September 18, 2010
Quoting StormJunkie:
00z GFS at 108hrs...The system in the central Atl is what eventually, supposedly ends up in the GOM correct?



I'm not sure. Recently GFS has been developing it out of the far southwest Caribbean (check my blog, I captured the frames where I think cyclogenesis occurred.)
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
1140. 1900hurricane
4:19 AM GMT on September 18, 2010
Check this out!

Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
1139. LiveToFish0430
4:19 AM GMT on September 18, 2010
Quoting angiest:
1119 - I never miss a chance to be a CF advocate. ;) We evacuated Ike in part because she didn't need to be without electricity for air conditioning, nebulizers, feeding pumps, etc.

And there, I have made this whole thing weather related.


smart call on your part. i live in daytona beach and we lost power for over a week when charley came through. trying to do my breathing treatments and keep medicine cold was a nightmare
Member Since: September 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 40
1138. HaboobsRsweet
4:18 AM GMT on September 18, 2010
Quoting StormJunkie:


And quite honestly, a lot of "operational forecasting" is knowing how to interpret all of that data in conjunction with current obs.

Depends were the flights are...if they are in the middle of the ocean you dont have obs and model data unrealible due to lack of upper air obs as well. Just one of many examples.
Member Since: May 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1640
1137. StormJunkie
4:18 AM GMT on September 18, 2010
00z GFS at 108hrs...The system in the central Atl is what eventually, supposedly ends up in the GOM correct?





Thanks CRS, and good evening to you.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15769
1135. angiest
4:17 AM GMT on September 18, 2010
Quoting WXTXN:

I'm in the same boat, have been bailing for 9 years...


I am now starting to drift into a hydrocodone induced fog (been sick this week with a chest cough) and I am afraid I don't understand what you just said...
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
1134. CaicosRetiredSailor
4:17 AM GMT on September 18, 2010

http://www.latimes.com/news/nationworld/world/la-fg-mexico-karl-20100918,0,6593938.story

Officials evacuated thousands of residents from low-lying areas and shut the Veracruz seaport, one of the country's busiest. Flights to the city were suspended and the main federal highway was closed as a precaution.

Residents were urged to stay indoors as Karl churned toward the country's interior. More than half a dozen states and the densely populated metropolitan area that includes Mexico City, the capital, were on alert for heavy rain and possible flooding.

President Felipe Calderon warned that Veracruz could get as much as 8 inches of rain, and downpours inland could cause flooding and mudslides over the weekend.

Heavy rain was the last thing coastal Veracruz state needed. More than 100,000 residents already had left their flooded homes because weeks of rainfall had overwhelmed rivers and swamped dozens of low-lying towns.

Veracruz Gov. Fidel Herrera told residents early Friday that Karl could be the worst storm to hit the state since he took office in 2004.

Civil-protection officials were bracing across Mexico's broad midsection, from coastal Tamaulipas to landlocked Puebla and Morelos, south of Mexico City. Because it is surrounded by mountains and has spotty infrastructure, the capital is prone to widespread flooding and power failures even during normal rainstorms.
Member Since: July 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 5998
1133. hurricaneoz
4:17 AM GMT on September 18, 2010
Dont think that there is any doubt that Igor is strengthening. 942Mb, 114kt max winds. 77Kt, 125 miles from the centre.
Member Since: July 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 23
1132. StormJunkie
4:16 AM GMT on September 18, 2010
Quoting HurricaneFCast:
That "mostly useless" math is an absolute necessity for any significant computer model you can imagine. Think of how poorly forecasters would perform without any type of atmospheric modeling software...
Just sayin'...


And quite honestly, a lot of "operational forecasting" is knowing how to interpret all of that data in conjunction with current obs.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15769
1131. WXTXN
4:16 AM GMT on September 18, 2010
Quoting angiest:


I learned this the hard way (graduated 11 years ago). An undergraduate degree in the US) is largely worthless *except* as a stepping stone to an advanced degree. Time was when someone with a Bachelor's degree in a physical science (geophysics in my case) could get a job. But, with the lousy state of education in this country, too much of the 4 year undergraduate program is spent learning things that should have been taught in high school. And it is very difficult to get a true (liberal arts) education. That is how *thinking* is taught.

I'm in the same boat, have been bailing for 9 years...
Member Since: July 10, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 139
1129. angiest
4:14 AM GMT on September 18, 2010
1119 - I never miss a chance to be a CF advocate. ;) We evacuated Ike in part because she didn't need to be without electricity for air conditioning, nebulizers, feeding pumps, etc.

And there, I have made this whole thing weather related.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
1128. StormJunkie
4:14 AM GMT on September 18, 2010
Quoting fatlady99:
Aw c'mon guys, where's the night crew? No coffee? No Krispy Kremes??? Don't tell me they defected too?

And just when I brought my extra shorts so xcool couldn't get me with one of his Igor graphics...


In loving memory of DJ, hope to see you and Dewey in 18hrs or so...

I'm Excited to Not be Angry sound bite  The Office sound bitesI'm Excited to Not be Angry sound bite

Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15769
1127. DDR
4:14 AM GMT on September 18, 2010
Quoting pottery:

Nice!!

Yea Nice and quiet too
I'm out,gotta catch some zzzz's
Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1693
1126. MiamiHurricanes09
4:14 AM GMT on September 18, 2010
Quoting dmaddox:
that is probably the lowest pressure i have ever seen for a 110mph Cat. 2 hurricane.. more typical of a weak Cat. 4 hurricane...
He resembles Alex. He is a very large tropical cyclone, consequently, winds take longer to respond to pressure drops. If and when the winds do catch up, Igor will likely try and make a run for category 4 status before southwesterly shear begins to increase ahead of a mid to upper-level trof.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
1125. dmaddox
4:14 AM GMT on September 18, 2010
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
URPA12 PGUA 180249 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/01:13:00Z
B. 23 deg 28 min N
125 deg 56 min E
C. 700 mb 2588 m
D. 105 kt
E. 094 deg 23 nm
F. 122 deg 112 kt
G. 043 deg 13 nm
H. 940 mb
I. 14 C / 3042 m
J. 22 C / 3048 m
K. 6 C / NA
L. NA
M. C20
N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 0.02 nm
P. AF307 0620W FANAPI OB 12 CCA
MAX FL WIND 112 KT NE QUAD 01:09:00Z
Fanapi and Igor have nearly the same pressure!
Member Since: May 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 445
1124. HaboobsRsweet
4:13 AM GMT on September 18, 2010
Quoting PcolaDan:


Well, maybe if you had gone to Florida State.

JOKIIIIIING :)

Haha nice...as much as I hate their football team it is a great met school.
Member Since: May 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1640
1123. angiest
4:12 AM GMT on September 18, 2010
Quoting dmaddox:
that is probably the lowest pressure i have ever seen for a 110mph Cat. 2 hurricane.. more typical of a weak Cat. 4 hurricane...


Alex and Ike.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
1121. sunlinepr
4:12 AM GMT on September 18, 2010
Sorry to interrupt, but I would uninstall the Kaspersky Internet Security and install Avast, a free antivirus. It has worked perfect free, the last 3 years (home edition is free). Also I would not use IExplorer, it is the most attacked Browser and (for me), the most patched one by MS. Use Firefox instead.

Quoting CalTex:


I tried that, but the preview showed a box with an X where the image was supposed to be, and I'd copied the URL into the scripting box.

However, I'm using IE7 (with Vista Home Basic) and Kaspersky Internet Security, and sometimes my computer blocks stuff I'm trying to do.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9719
1120. dmaddox
4:11 AM GMT on September 18, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Recon finds Igor a little stronger with the pressure now down to 942mb (recorded by a dropsonde dropped into the eye). Interestingly, the eyewall is open to the SE. Recon also hasn't found SFMR winds higher than 77kt, so far.

000
URNT12 KNHC 180355
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112010
A. 18/03:35:30Z
B. 24 deg 37 min N
062 deg 06 min W
C. 700 mb 2578 m
D. 77 kt
E. 242 deg 59 nm
F. 344 deg 78 kt
G. 244 deg 67 nm
H. 942 mb
I. 12 C / 3043 m
J. 17 C / 3047 m
K. 10 C / NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C20
N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF309 0311A IGOR OB 05
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 115 KT NE QUAD 03:49:50Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C 229 / 20 NM FROM FL CNTR
;
that is probably the lowest pressure i have ever seen for a 110mph Cat. 2 hurricane.. more typical of a weak Cat. 4 hurricane...
Member Since: May 5, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 445
1119. LiveToFish0430
4:11 AM GMT on September 18, 2010
Quoting angiest:


Our daughter was diagnosed essentially at birth, she had meconium illeus and was in the NICU for about 15 weeks.

She has just recently cultures pseudomonas for the first time since she was in the NICU and we are doing TOBI for the first time.

What a life, but unless you can see the surgery scars or her mic-key button, you would never know anything has been wrong with her. She is one of the happiest children you would ever see.


thats how must of us with cf are. we are happy,we are stronger and more positive than most,and we never take anything for granted. its nice to meet someone out there who knows what cf is. i have to say,this is one of the last places i would of thought to meet a cf patient or parent and i was suprised when i saw your post earlier. i know this is a weather blog and people are probably tired of reading cf posts back and forth. but please dont hesitate to ask any questions you may have. i know how scary and difficult cf is,especially when you have a young one and it is still a fairly new learning experience to you. i have been dealing with it for 20 years and have learned a lot over this time and i feel like i owe it to anyone that needs help to help them in any way
Member Since: September 1, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 40
1118. PcolaDan
4:11 AM GMT on September 18, 2010
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

Haha I am the one that started all of this and I have a Met degree from Penn State. I will be the first to tell you the degree means nothing for operational forecasting. It is only useful if you go into research or forecast modeling. I learned way more my first 6 months on the job when it comes to forecasting than I did in four years. Oh yea and I went back to school and got my masters degree too and still feel the same way.


Well, maybe if you had gone to Florida State.

JOKIIIIIING :)
Member Since: August 22, 2008 Posts: 12 Comments: 6010
1116. bwat
4:10 AM GMT on September 18, 2010
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

Haha I am the one that started all of this and I have a Met degree from Penn State. I will be the first to tell you the degree means nothing for operational forecasting. It is only useful if you go into research or forecast modeling. I learned way more my first 6 months on the job when it comes to forecasting than I did in four years. Oh yea and I went back to school and got my masters degree too and still feel the same way.
Thats awesome, you mind if I ask who you working for now? A WU mail will be fine if you dont wanna post on the blog.
Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 353
1115. HurricaneFCast
4:10 AM GMT on September 18, 2010
That "mostly useless" math is an absolute necessity for any significant computer model you can imagine. Think of how poorly forecasters would perform without any type of atmospheric modeling software...
Just sayin'...
Member Since: April 20, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 1482
1114. pottery
4:10 AM GMT on September 18, 2010
Quoting DDR:
Pottery,St Benedict from where i live...looking wnw

img src="Image Hosting by imagefra.me">

Nice!!
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24085
1113. angiest
4:09 AM GMT on September 18, 2010
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Most of the information, or knowledge people learn in college these days can be learned OJT. College, like so many other things in the era we live in has become a money making racket. My comments aren't meant as an insult, but you just proved my point.

You haven't even finished your degree yet and you have already developed an "I'm smarter than you because I have a degree" attitude.

University study in its infancy was a way to a higher level of thinking. These days its just become a glorified technical school in a sense.


I learned this the hard way (graduated 11 years ago). An undergraduate degree in the US) is largely worthless *except* as a stepping stone to an advanced degree. Time was when someone with a Bachelor's degree in a physical science (geophysics in my case) could get a job. But, with the lousy state of education in this country, too much of the 4 year undergraduate program is spent learning things that should have been taught in high school. And it is very difficult to get a true (liberal arts) education. That is how *thinking* is taught.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
1112. pcola57
4:09 AM GMT on September 18, 2010
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


You are correct, the average forecast error for the 12 hour forecast is 33.8 nautical miles. At the 12 hour point the cone radii is 36 nautical miles. More impressive is the 120 hour error of 151 nautical miles where the cone radii for 120 hours is 285 nautical miles.


Good to know I read that correctly.
At this point I'm checking my scratch pad and I see Igor,presently,going through R/I at 110 mph with a Hurricaine windfield radi of 105 nm miles,moving at 13 mph.I would not to be anchored anywhere near Bermuda,or at least 285 nm away for at least next 4 days.
Thanks again nrtiwlnvragn.
Member Since: August 13, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 6774
1111. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
4:09 AM GMT on September 18, 2010
URPA12 PGUA 180249 CCA
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 18/01:13:00Z
B. 23 deg 28 min N
125 deg 56 min E
C. 700 mb 2588 m
D. 105 kt
E. 094 deg 23 nm
F. 122 deg 112 kt
G. 043 deg 13 nm
H. 940 mb
I. 14 C / 3042 m
J. 22 C / 3048 m
K. 6 C / NA
L. NA
M. C20
N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 0.02 nm
P. AF307 0620W FANAPI OB 12 CCA
MAX FL WIND 112 KT NE QUAD 01:09:00Z
Member Since: May 24, 2006 Posts: 50 Comments: 44850
1110. HaboobsRsweet
4:08 AM GMT on September 18, 2010
Quoting Krycek1984:


Saying a degree doesn't matter is an insult to people that spent 4 years of their life (often more if going part-time) and may be in significant debt. It really is. I'm almost done with my accounting degree and I'll tell you what, there's no way that someone could learn all of the information in an accounting degree unless they had at LEAST 15 years of on-the-job experience, especially to be equivalent to a CPA's eduction.

There are several degrees out there that are not "hard core", but still.

And to say a met degree "doesn't matter" is ridiculous. I'd like to see those of you who make that argument make it through 4 years of math and physics and then say it doesn't matter.

Haha I am the one that started all of this and I have a Met degree from Penn State. I will be the first to tell you the degree means nothing for operational forecasting. It is only useful if you go into research or forecast modeling. I learned way more my first 6 months on the job when it comes to forecasting than I did in four years. Oh yea and I went back to school and got my masters degree too and still feel the same way.
Member Since: May 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1640
1109. Chicklit
4:08 AM GMT on September 18, 2010
NewsaboutKarl
Goodnight!
Member Since: July 11, 2006 Posts: 14 Comments: 11186
1108. fatlady99
4:08 AM GMT on September 18, 2010
Aw c'mon guys, where's the night crew? No coffee? No Krispy Kremes??? Don't tell me they defected too?

And just when I brought my extra shorts so xcool couldn't get me with one of his Igor graphics...
Member Since: September 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 410
1107. washingtonian115
4:07 AM GMT on September 18, 2010
Igor is living up to his name.Now it's when he wants to get stronger when he comes close to bermuda...Igor you are one cold hearted storm!
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 16437
1106. DDR
4:07 AM GMT on September 18, 2010
.
Member Since: April 27, 2007 Posts: 14 Comments: 1693
1105. angiest
4:06 AM GMT on September 18, 2010
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Recon finds Igor a little stronger with the pressure now down to 942mb (recorded by a dropsonde dropped into the eye). Interestingly, the eyewall is open to the SE. Recon also hasn't found SFMR winds higher than 77kt, so far.

000
URNT12 KNHC 180355
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112010
A. 18/03:35:30Z
B. 24 deg 37 min N
062 deg 06 min W
C. 700 mb 2578 m
D. 77 kt
E. 242 deg 59 nm
F. 344 deg 78 kt
G. 244 deg 67 nm
H. 942 mb
I. 12 C / 3043 m
J. 17 C / 3047 m
K. 10 C / NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C20
N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF309 0311A IGOR OB 05
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 115 KT NE QUAD 03:49:50Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C 229 / 20 NM FROM FL CNTR
;


Tenacious bugger. Trying to climb his way back up.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
1104. beell
4:06 AM GMT on September 18, 2010
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


No, the error was 124.7 nautical miles, well outside the cone for that forecast. I think you are confusing radii with diameter. At 24 hr the cone radii is 62nm, which would result in a 124nm circle.


Ok, got it, nrt. Crystal clear, now. Thanks again.
Member Since: September 11, 2007 Posts: 141 Comments: 16261
1103. HaboobsRsweet
4:06 AM GMT on September 18, 2010
Quoting atmoaggie:
Good point. (I wouldn't know, not doing short-term operational forecasts, but I can see the point.)

(I build QC algorithms for data, operationally run assimilation and forecast models, atmospheric and surge, and am the HPC admin, among other hats I wear).

Sweet sounds cool. However i hate programing haha. I know all about wearing many hats though. Keeps the days interesting that is for sure.
Member Since: May 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 1640
1102. Grecojdw
4:06 AM GMT on September 18, 2010
Quoting Krycek1984:


Saying a degree doesn't matter is an insult to people that spent 4 years of their life (often more if going part-time) and may be in significant debt. It really is. I'm almost done with my accounting degree and I'll tell you what, there's no way that someone could learn all of the information in an accounting degree unless they had at LEAST 15 years of on-the-job experience, especially to be equivalent to a CPA's eduction.

There are several degrees out there that are not "hard core", but still.

And to say a met degree "doesn't matter" is ridiculous. I'd like to see those of you who make that argument make it through 4 years of math and physics and then say it doesn't matter.


I have a masters, but I do respect the on the job training that the military gives to their soldiers who fight for all of us in terms of a substitute for a degree. So yes, on the job training does sometimes count.
Member Since: January 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 339
1101. AllBoardedUp
4:05 AM GMT on September 18, 2010
Quoting Krycek1984:


Saying a degree doesn't matter is an insult to people that spent 4 years of their life (often more if going part-time) and may be in significant debt. It really is. I'm almost done with my accounting degree and I'll tell you what, there's no way that someone could learn all of the information in an accounting degree unless they had at LEAST 15 years of on-the-job experience, especially to be equivalent to a CPA's eduction.

There are several degrees out there that are not "hard core", but still.

And to say a met degree "doesn't matter" is ridiculous. I'd like to see those of you who make that argument make it through 4 years of math and physics and then say it doesn't matter.
Most of the information, or knowledge people learn in college these days can be learned OJT. College, like so many other things in the era we live in has become a money making racket. My comments aren't meant as an insult, but you just proved my point.

You haven't even finished your degree yet and you have already developed an "I'm smarter than you because I have a degree" attitude.

University study in its infancy was a way to a higher level of thinking. These days its just become a glorified technical school in a sense.
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 626
Recon finds Igor a little stronger with the pressure now down to 942mb (recorded by a dropsonde dropped into the eye). Interestingly, the eyewall is open to the SE. Recon also hasn't found SFMR winds higher than 77kt, so far.

000
URNT12 KNHC 180355
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL112010
A. 18/03:35:30Z
B. 24 deg 37 min N
062 deg 06 min W
C. 700 mb 2578 m
D. 77 kt
E. 242 deg 59 nm
F. 344 deg 78 kt
G. 244 deg 67 nm
H. 942 mb
I. 12 C / 3043 m
J. 17 C / 3047 m
K. 10 C / NA
L. OPEN SE
M. C20
N. 12345 / 07
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF309 0311A IGOR OB 05
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 115 KT NE QUAD 03:49:50Z
MAX FL TEMP 17 C 229 / 20 NM FROM FL CNTR
;
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
1099. Dunkman
Wind reports are pretty light so far (highest SFMR I've seen is 73 knots) but Igor does seem to be intensifying. I hope his enormous structure prevents him from ramping up the winds again, this is going to be bad enough for Bermuda as a borderline cat 2/3.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1098. bwat
Quoting Seastep:


Krycek, relax.

You will no doubt find out, as most do, that you learn more in the first 6 months on your first job than you did in all four years.

There is no substitute for live.
+1000000, I got proof, WU mail me if you wanna know.
Member Since: August 18, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 353

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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