Hurricane Karl: first major hurricane ever in the Bay of Campeche; Bermuda eyes Igor

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:47 PM GMT on September 17, 2010

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Hurricane Karl explosively deepened into a dangerous Category 3 hurricane this morning, becoming the fifth major hurricane of this remarkably active 2010 Atlantic hurricane season. Karl is the first major hurricane on record in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche--the region bounded by the Yucatan Peninsula on the east. There were two other major hurricanes that grazed the northern edge of the Bay of Campeche, Hurricane Hilda of 1955 and Hurricane Charley of 1951, but Karl is by far the farthest south a major hurricane has been in the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane records go back to 1851, but Karl is a small storm and could have gotten missed as being a major hurricane before the age of aircraft reconnaissance (1945).


Figure 1. Tracks of all major hurricanes since 1851 near Mexico's Bay of Campeche. Karl is most southerly major hurricane on record in the Gulf of Mexico. Image credit: NOAA Coastal Services Center.

With Karl's ascension to major hurricane status, we are now ahead of the pace of the terrible hurricane seasons of 2004 and 2005 for number of major hurricanes so early in the year. In 2005, the fifth major hurricane (Rita) did not occur until September 21, and in 2004, the fifth major hurricane (Karl) arrived on September 19. Wunderblogger Cotillion has put together a nice page showing all the seasons with five or more major hurricanes. The last time we had five major hurricanes earlier in the season was in 1961, when the fifth major hurricane (Esther) arrived on September 13. This morning we continue to have three simultaneous hurricanes, Hurricanes Igor, Julia, and Karl. This is a rare phenomena, having occurred only eight previous years since 1851. The last time we had three simultaneous hurricanes in the Atlantic was in 1998. That year also had four simultaneous hurricanes--Georges, Ivan, Jeanne and Karl--for a brief time on September 25. There has been just one other case of four simultaneous Atlantic hurricanes, on August 22, 1893. The year 2005 came within six hours of having three hurricanes at the same time, but the official data base constructed after the season was over indicates that the three hurricanes did not exist simultaneously.

Also remarkable this year is that are seeing major hurricanes in rare or unprecedented locations. Julia was the easternmost major hurricane on record, Karl is the most southerly major hurricane on record in the Gulf of Mexico, and Earl was the 4th strongest hurricane so far north. This unusual major hurricane activity is likely due, in part, to the record Atlantic sea surface temperatures this year.


Figure 2. Triple trouble, day two: From left to right, Hurricanes Karl, Igor, and Julia roil the Atlantic at 9:45 am EDT, September 17, 2010. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Karl
Hurricane Karl put on a burst of intensification this morning unprecedented in this part of the Atlantic, bottoming out as a Category 3 hurricane with a 957 mb pressure and winds of 120 mph. Karl's pressure dropped 10 mb between 1am EDT and 7 am EDT, but the pressure during the Hurricane Hunters' latest pass through the eye, at 10:12 am, had risen 12 mb, likely indicating that Karl's winds may weaken quickly in the next few hours. Karl is getting very close to land, and interaction with land will probably limit further intensification. Mexican radar out of Alvarado shows the eye is very close to the coast.


Figure 3. Radar image of Karl approaching landfall in Mexico. Image credit: Mexican Weather Service.

Impact of Karl on Mexico
Given that the Bay of Campeche coast has never experienced a hurricane as strong as Karl, its impact is likely to cause unprecedented damage to a 50-mile wide coastal area between Veracruz and Poza Rica. The strongest hurricanes in history to affect the region were Item in 1950, with 110 mph winds, Janet in 1955, with 100 mph winds, and Diana of 1990, with 100 mph winds. Flooding from Janet killed over 800 people in Mexico. and flooding from Diana killed at least 139 people. Fortunately, the Mexicans have one of the best disaster preparedness programs in the world, and it is likely that evacuations from the storm surge zone of Karl will greatly limit the loss of life from storm surge. The section of coast expected to receive Karl's maximum 12 - 16 foot storm surge is moderately populated, but is low-lying only in limited regions. Of greatest concern are Karl's torrential rains, since the region has high mountains near the coast that will experience extreme rainfall and flooding. Karl's high winds are also a major concern, and these winds are likely to damage thousands of buildings near the coast.

Igor
Hurricane Igor has slowly weakened over the past day, but remains a large and dangerous Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. Igor passed just north of buoy 41044 last night, and the buoy recorded a lowest pressure of 942 mb. Top winds during Igor's passage were sustained at 74 mph, but this reading was on the weak left front side of the hurricane. The buoy recorded a significant wave height of 38 feet (the significant wave height is the average of the highest 1/3 of the waves.)


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Igor.

Intensity forecast for Igor
Wind shear is low to moderate, 5 - 15 knots, and is expected to remain in this range through Saturday afternoon. Waters are warm, 29°C, and will remain 29°C through Saturday morning, then slowly decline. Igor is well armored against any intrusions of dry air for at least the next two days. These conditions should allow Igor to remain at major hurricane status through Saturday afternoon. It is possible the hurricane will undergo another eyewall replacement cycle, where the eyewall collapses and a new eyewall forms from an outer spiral band. This will weaken the hurricane by 10 - 20 mph if it occurs, but Igor may regain its lost intensity once the cycle is over, as it has done after its previous two eyewall replacement cycles. By Saturday afternoon, the trough of low pressure steering Igor northwestwards should bring moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots to the storm, potentially weakening it. The SHIPS models predicts shear will not rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, until the hurricane reaches the island, which may be soon enough to induce substantial weakening by perhaps 20 - 30 mph before Igor arrives at Bermuda. Igor will still probably be at least a Category 2 hurricane on its closest pass by Bermuda on Sunday night, and perhaps a Category 3. NHC is giving Bermuda a 29% chance of experiencing hurricane force winds from Igor, but this probability is likely too low. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 2 hurricane conditions for the island on Sunday, with 20 - 40 foot waves in the offshore waters, and 6 - 12 foot seas in the inland waters.

Igor's impact on Bermuda
The track forecast for Igor remains unchanged. Igor is moving northwest, in response to the steering influence of a broad trough of low pressure moving across the Western Atlantic. This trough will steer Igor to the northwest and north over the next three days, bringing the core of the storm very close to Bermuda late Sunday night. Igor is a huge storm, and tropical storm force winds extend out 290 miles to the north of its center. As the hurricane moves north, it will expand in size, as it takes advantage of the extra spin available at higher latitudes due to Earth's rotation. By Saturday night, Igor's tropical storm force winds are expected to extend outwards 320 miles from the center. Igor will be moving at about 11 - 13 mph during the final 24 hours of its approach to Bermuda, so the island can expect a period of 39+ mph tropical storm force winds to begin near midnight Saturday night--a full 24 hours before the core of Igor arrives. Igor will speed up to about 15 mph as it passes the island near midnight Sunday night, and Bermuda's battering by tropical storm force winds will not be as long as Igor moves away, perhaps 10 hours long. Hurricane force winds will probably extend out about 60 miles from the center when the core of Igor reaches Bermuda, and the island can expect to be pounded by hurricane force winds for up to 6 - 8 hours. In all, Bermuda is likely to suffer a remarkably long 36-hour period of tropical storm force winds, with the potential for many hours of hurricane force winds. Long duration poundings like this are very stressful for buildings, and there is the potential for significant damage on Bermuda. However, buildings in Bermuda are some of the best-constructed in the world, and damage on the island will be much lower than might otherwise be expected.

Bermuda's hurricane history
Igor is similar in strength and projected track to Hurricane Fabian of 2003. Fabian hit Bermuda as a Category 3 hurricane with 120 mph winds. It was the most damaging hurricane ever to hit the island, with $355 million in damage. Fabian's storm surge killed four people crossing a causeway on the island. These were the first hurricane deaths on Bermuda since 1926. The most powerful hurricane on record to strike Bermuda was the Category 4 Havana-Bermuda Hurricane, which hit on October 22, 1926, with 135 mph winds. The hurricane sank two British warships, claiming 88 lives, but no one was killed on the island. The deadliest hurricane to affect the island occurred on September 12, 1839, when a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds and an 11-foot storm surge hit, tearing off the roofs of hundreds of buildings and wrecking several ships. An estimated 100 people were killed (source: Encyclopedia of Hurricanes, Typhoons, and Cyclones, by David Longshore.)

Igor's impact on the rest of the Atlantic
The models have been in substantial agreement over multiple runs that Igor will miss the U.S. and Canadian coasts--with the possible exception of southeast Newfoundland, which the ECMWF model predicts could see a close pass by Igor. The chief danger to the U.S. and Canada will come in the form of high waves. Large swells from Igor are pounding the Bahamas, Puerto Rico, and the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and will spread westwards to the U.S. East Coast today. By Saturday, much of the East Coast from northern Florida to Cape Cod Massachusetts can expect waves of 3 - 4 meters (10 - 13 feet), causing dangerous rip currents and significant beach erosion. These waves will continue through Sunday then gradually die down. The latest NOAA marine forecast for Cape Hatteras, North Carolina calls for 6 - 11 foot waves on Saturday night, and 9 - 13 foot waves on Sunday.

Julia
Strong upper level winds from big brother Igor are creating a high 20 - 30 knots of shear over Hurricane Julia this morning, and the hurricane is destined to weaken to a tropical storm soon. The high shear has eroded away the northwestern portion of Julia's heavy thunderstorms, and should be strong enough to destroy Julia by early next week. Julia is not expected to threaten any land areas.

Unusually quiet in the Pacific
The unusually quiet Western Pacific typhoon season has its 11th named storm of the season, Typhoon Fanapi. Fanapi, a Category 1 storm, is located 400 miles east of Taiwan, and is expected to intensify into a Category 2 storm before making landfall on the island Sunday. Ordinarily, the Western Pacific should be up to seventeen named storms by now. It has also been unusually quiet in the Eastern Pacific. On average, that ocean basin should have had 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes by now. This season, we've had about half the normal activity--just 6 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 1 intense hurricane.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The ECMWF model develops a new tropical depression a few hundred miles off the coast of Africa 4 - 5 days from now. The GFS and NOGAPS models have backed off on their predictions of a Caribbean development late next week.

I'll have an update this afternoon.

Jeff Masters

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979. Motttt
4:55 AM GMT on September 18, 2010
I have seen a lot of things change sence I have been on this weather Blog.. And the weather too.
Member Since: September 10, 2001 Posts: 0 Comments: 213
977. CajunTexan
9:48 PM GMT on September 17, 2010
Quoting StormJunkie:


Notice during this whole thing that NO ONE has attacked Levi...It is SW's on going ego trip that has dug his own grave for him. That and not being able to handle constructive criticism or someone that disagrees with his "analysis". There are plenty of people, including some of the comedians, on this blog that will share relevant information and help people learn. All SW did was regurgitate what the NHC, models, and professional mets had to say...With a little bit of Westcasting thrown in. Well, and he was always extra nice to the ladies.

I see posts are back in to falling in to never never land. That is a real shame. That is one of the two problems that are keeping this going. For one, I am not a fan of the censorship. You can come in and say how much better you think SW is than the Dr, or the NHC. I'm intelligent enough to overlook that or respond to it depending on what I want to do at the time. The major factor in this continuing ordeal is the disappearing posts. Admin should be the only ones that can make a post vanish. If they are deleting this many comments then some 24hr bans should be handed out. To myself included, if that is there choice.




Excellent Post! +10000
Member Since: September 24, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 119
976. Tarpville
9:28 PM GMT on September 17, 2010
Quoting seflagamma:
I see post disappearing again.
I was not under the impression that the "-" sign made post disappear..

I thought the " " and "-"
helped determine if your post were shown on the "average or above average" viewing...

I thought only "!" were the ones that got admin's attention...

please tell me "!" are not being used to get all the comments removed????


and I think some people here let their egos get in the way...
We should agree to disagree...
and not have the "I'll take my ball and go home" attitude..

I've seen some here threaten to leave over and over and they come back..
their egos need the praise ...

but when you suck up and live off the praise you also must be thick skinned enough to take the punches you are bound to get.


Now will this comment disappear also???
I've never been "banned" from Dr Master's blog before..I've been banned from a few of the personal blogs but not this one.


anyway, I see poor Mexico is getting whalloped.. I hope they had time to prepared.
I am now worried more about those folks than Bermuda.. Bermuda has had over a week to see this coming.

Good afternoon everyone!


I couldn't agree with you more! I have been reading this blog since 2004 and finally became a member in 2006 and as you can see, I hardly every posted; in fact, this may even be my first post. I have never seen so many post removed; especially, when some of post removed are from people, such as keeperofgate, Pottery, Stormjunkie, and others that I highly doubt deserved to be removed! In my opinion the "Report to Admin" button should be removed because, with out a doubt, it's being abused. If you don't like a post or poster put them on your ignore list, and believe or not it works. I, personally, have several people on mine. I'm sure some won't like my post and report it as well, or they will say there are children on the blog, so we shouldn't get rid of "The Report to Admin" button. I got news for you, children today here far worse or vulgar stuff at school and their friends. Furthermore, the children that to come on this blog can also use the ignore button if they are offended by a comment or certain blogger. Okay, I'm done ranting, back to Lurking.
Member Since: July 1, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 28
975. CaptnDan142
9:26 PM GMT on September 17, 2010
Quoting angiest:


If that's true, which I doubt, then it is a bad system.


If you're quick and you get to read some of the posts before they get deleted, you will see what people are saying. "Auto-moderating" has been around for a very long time. I remember having it back in the late 80's. But, longevity doesn't necessarily mean good. The abuse we are seeing here recently shows how a group can easily misuse such a system.

(Though to their dubious credit, they seem to have taken a two-pronged approach to the battle, using every means available to them.)
Member Since: August 21, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 856
973. sunlinepr
9:08 PM GMT on September 17, 2010
Thanks for your answers but Excuse me, cause maybe I did'nt explained well my question. Given that the definitions of trough and ridge are:
TROUGH - An elongated area of low atmospheric pressure that is associated with an area of minimum cyclonic circulation. The opposite of a ridge.

RIDGE - An elongated area of high atmospheric pressure that is associated with an area of maximum anticyclonic circulation. The opposite of a trough.

What is steering Igor right now a Ridge or a Trough?
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9798
972. Some1Has2BtheRookie
8:56 PM GMT on September 17, 2010
Thank you, angiest. You ARE one of the many that gives hope to this blog.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 4737
969. AllBoardedUp
8:52 PM GMT on September 17, 2010
Quoting BLee2333:


No...
Darn! Well, off to the NEW BLOG!
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 626
968. WatchingThisOne
8:52 PM GMT on September 17, 2010
Quoting DestinJeff:
Updated steering for Igor:

Not looking good for Bermuda, would rather have that high to the east not expand such to force Igor west of the island...



GFS, Navy and CMC steering forecasts for 250 to 700 mb out to 60 hours are not showing any indications of this happening.

That's the good news. The bad news is that they are not showing any weakening that would favor a course more to the east. Near as I can tell, they call for just west of or on top of Bermuda. A pass to the east is, of course, possible but it's not showing up in the steering forecast yet. We can only hope that it passes to the east. But 65W, 32N is looking like a hot zone at this point.
Member Since: July 15, 2005 Posts: 3 Comments: 1263
967. AllBoardedUp
8:51 PM GMT on September 17, 2010
Kinda of staying put at the movies until all of the credits are finished showing. I guess the movie is finally over!
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 626
966. BahaHurican
8:51 PM GMT on September 17, 2010
Quoting seflagamma:
I see post disappearing again.
I was not under the impression that the "-" sign made post disappear..

I thought the " " and "-"
helped determine if your post were shown on the "average or above average" viewing...

I thought only "!" were the ones that got admin's attention...

please tell me "!" are not being used to get all the comments removed????


and I think some people here let their egos get in the way...
We should agree to disagree...
and not have the "I'll take my ball and go home" attitude..

I've seen some here threaten to leave over and over and they come back..
their egos need the praise ...

but when you suck up and live off the praise you also must be thick skinned enough to take the punches you are bound to get.


Now will this comment disappear also???
I've never been "banned" from Dr Master's blog before..I've been banned from a few of the personal blogs but not this one.


anyway, I see poor Mexico is getting whalloped.. I hope they had time to prepared.
I am now worried more about those folks than Bermuda.. Bermuda has had over a week to see this coming.

Good afternoon everyone!
Gams, our understanding is similar... I must need to go read back the last 1000 posts, because I'm not sure where all the "ego-related" comments are coming from...
Quoting seflagamma:


Oh my goodness, my post disappeared...
That has never happened to me yet! LOL

I guess that answered my question..

Yes, Bermuda should have had plenty of time.

I still see ur post fine, though maybe that's because I haven't updated the page yet... lol

I think I'm going to read back and find out what in the world is going on....

Quoting StormChaser81:
This 3-D image of Igor's cloud heights and rainfall from NASA TRMM data shows a large area of heavy rainfall (falling at about 2 inches per hour) shown here in red on Sept. 15 at 0353 UTC. The yellow and green areas indicate moderate rainfall between .78 to 1.57 inches per hour. The image reveals that Igor's eye was still very distinct but the southwestern portion of the eye wall had eroded.

Check out the Hot Towers!!!

Great TRMM stuff here... pity we didn't get this when Igor was flirting with cat 5.... that would have been fantastic!
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 21899
965. BLee2333
8:50 PM GMT on September 17, 2010
Quoting AllBoardedUp:
Could I be the last one to comment on this blog before everyone switches to the NEW BLOG?


No...
Member Since: January 6, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 217
964. LeMoyne
8:50 PM GMT on September 17, 2010
Quoting sailingallover:
quoting sunlinepr:


whats deviating? he is doing the same thing for days..heading to Bermuda with a few wobbles?
Are you asking what is steering him currently?
That would be the trough..but it has not picked him up as much as allowed him to flow into it since it is an area of lower pressure than the other areas around him. I also believe that the natural tendency for northward motion is at play. If there were any strong steering currents pushing him he would be moving faster. If there were strong winds in a direction other than he was moving he would be getting sheared..


This makes it look like the ridge/trough hasnt done alot ... (morphed PW through 1200z)
Member Since: September 16, 2010 Posts: 4 Comments: 84
963. AllBoardedUp
8:49 PM GMT on September 17, 2010
I reckon so!
Member Since: July 25, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 626
960. SQUAWK
8:47 PM GMT on September 17, 2010
Quoting flsky:

Wouldn't that be something if Igor scooted back around!


No! And I do not like the way it is headed either. I want that Xrap line to start swinging north soon!
Member Since: December 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 2498
959. xcool
8:47 PM GMT on September 17, 2010
new blog blog
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
958. sunlinepr
8:47 PM GMT on September 17, 2010
Thanks....
Quoting sailingallover:

whats deviating? he is doing the same thing for days..heading to Bermuda with a few wobbles?
Are you asking what is steering him currently?
That would be the trough..but it has not picked him up as much as allowed him to flow into it since it is an area of lower pressure than the other areas around him. I also believe that the natural tendency for northward motion is at play. If there were any strong steering currents pushing him he would be moving faster. If there were strong winds in a direction other than he was moving he would be getting sheared..
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9798
957. 1900hurricane
8:46 PM GMT on September 17, 2010
Quoting angiest:


They may be actively deleting flagged posts, more-so than normal.

Looks like it worked though...
Member Since: August 2, 2006 Posts: 46 Comments: 11666
955. sunlinepr
8:44 PM GMT on September 17, 2010
the African situation

Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9798
954. sailingallover
8:44 PM GMT on September 17, 2010
Quoting sunlinepr:
What's deviating Igor : A trough or a Ridge??

TROUGH - An elongated area of low atmospheric pressure that is associated with an area of minimum cyclonic circulation. The opposite of a ridge.

RIDGE - An elongated area of high atmospheric pressure that is associated with an area of maximum anticyclonic circulation. The opposite of a trough.

whats deviating? he is doing the same thing for days..heading to Bermuda with a few wobbles?
Are you asking what is steering him currently?
That would be the trough..but it has not picked him up as much as allowed him to flow into it since it is an area of lower pressure than the other areas around him. I also believe that the natural tendency for northward motion is at play. If there were any strong steering currents pushing him he would be moving faster. If there were strong winds in a direction other than he was moving he would be getting sheared..
Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1007
953. kwgirl
8:43 PM GMT on September 17, 2010
Quoting JupiterFL:
Ok everyone please flag my post. Lets see if it disappears.
I notice that an individual only has one chance to + or - plus one chance for the ! Darn I don't know how to change this to red. Can't find the pallette.
Member Since: March 28, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1532
952. Patrap
8:43 PM GMT on September 17, 2010
er,,new entry Padawans..
Member Since: July 3, 2005 Posts: 423 Comments: 127810
949. xcool
8:43 PM GMT on September 17, 2010
newewwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwwww blog new blog
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15648
946. flsky
8:42 PM GMT on September 17, 2010
Quoting StormChaser81:
This 3-D image of Igor's cloud heights and rainfall from NASA TRMM data shows a large area of heavy rainfall (falling at about 2 inches per hour) shown here in red on Sept. 15 at 0353 UTC. The yellow and green areas indicate moderate rainfall between .78 to 1.57 inches per hour. The image reveals that Igor's eye was still very distinct but the southwestern portion of the eye wall had eroded.

Check out the Hot Towers!!!


When someone posts an image such as this, I think we can all see why this blog is valuable. With so many "weather heads" searching out this sort info for the rest of us, I think we can see why so many people keep coming back.
Member Since: October 24, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1937
945. angiest
8:42 PM GMT on September 17, 2010
Quoting btwntx08:

???


Did you forget 92L became Karl?
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
944. weathermancer
8:42 PM GMT on September 17, 2010
Quoting StormChaser81:
This 3-D image of Igor's cloud heights and rainfall from NASA TRMM data shows a large area of heavy rainfall (falling at about 2 inches per hour) shown here in red on Sept. 15 at 0353 UTC. The yellow and green areas indicate moderate rainfall between .78 to 1.57 inches per hour. The image reveals that Igor's eye was still very distinct but the southwestern portion of the eye wall had eroded.

Check out the Hot Towers!!!



Wow! Thanks for posting.

Member Since: August 29, 2009 Posts: 12 Comments: 482
939. angiest
8:41 PM GMT on September 17, 2010
Quoting bird72:


No my friend, Dr.Master himself, take control of the situation, those erase post are adm. erase post. Don't ask me why I know, I'm not going to tell you. Again, the more you move it, the more it sucks.


I think that is most likely. Wunderground does have people on salary who can delete flagged posts. And given what has been going on here lately, their orders may simply be delete anything that is flagged.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
938. nrtiwlnvragn
8:40 PM GMT on September 17, 2010
NEW BLOG
Member Since: September 23, 2005 Posts: 14 Comments: 11072
934. angiest
8:39 PM GMT on September 17, 2010
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:
I agree with you 100%, Bob in Tampa. There is a lot of serious talent on this blog. I even stated that there are others on here that will take the time to answer questions being asked even though I did not name them all. ( The list would be too long ) I also enjoy the humor on this blog. Why should we attack anyone that contributes to the knowledge base? Do you seriously believe that StormW is the only one with an ego on here? I do not care about the ego. I care what information they can give me that proves to be beneficial to many.

Right now my primary interest is to gain insight as to what may be coming my way in the next couple weeks. Yes, projections this far out can be all garbage, but it does give me some information that I may need to take note of. Like it or not, StormW has given me some valuable information. He will look at the complete picture and not just the rose or the thorns. ... I'll go back to lurking. I am not helping the situation any.


FWIW I am following how GFS develops the forecast Caribbean/Gulf system:
Link
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
933. islander101010
8:39 PM GMT on September 17, 2010
92 made a strong showing a major
Member Since: September 11, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 4512
932. sailingallover
8:38 PM GMT on September 17, 2010
Quoting angiest:


If that's true, which I doubt, then it is a bad system.

Why? It's continuously self moderating based on the users..
The board can be taken over by a group but an occasional check by a moderator can control that.

Member Since: September 1, 2009 Posts: 23 Comments: 1007
929. sunlinepr
8:38 PM GMT on September 17, 2010
What's deviating Igor : A trough or a Ridge??

TROUGH - An elongated area of low atmospheric pressure that is associated with an area of minimum cyclonic circulation. The opposite of a ridge.

RIDGE - An elongated area of high atmospheric pressure that is associated with an area of maximum anticyclonic circulation. The opposite of a trough.
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 21 Comments: 9798

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.