A complex and dangerous situation

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:55 PM GMT on October 03, 2005

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The tropics today present a very complex picture, with many potential areas of danger for all residents along the Mexican and U.S. coast. Here's what's happening:

Tropical Storm Stan
Tropical Storm Stan is quickly re-organizing over waters of the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. The chances for continued intensification a are high, as Stan is over 30C waters and is positioned under a large anticyclone that will provide good outflow and wind shear values below 5 knots. Stan will probably be a Category 1 hurricane as it approaches the Mexican coast on Wednesday, and a Category 2 hurricane is not out of the question.

The forecast of a landfall in Mexico between Tampico and Veracruz on Wednesday has increased in confidence since yesterday, but is still uncertain. Stan is being driven westward at 10 mph by a strong ridge of high pressure. This ridge will gradually weaken Tuesday as a weak trough of low pressure swings across the U.S., and Stan will slow down in response. All of the models are now forecasting that the ridge will remain strong enough to carry Stan all the way to the coast. However, there is still a distinct chance that Stan may stall just before the coast, or make landfall, then pop back out over the Gulf of Mexico and re-intensify. Stan may then remain in the Gulf many days, and may eventually move north and threaten the U.S.

Complicating the forecast is the fact that a tropical depression my form tomorrow along the Pacific Mexican coast in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 100 miles south of the Gulf of Mexico. Storm-storm interactions among two tropical storms are not well understood, and the development of a new tropical depression on the other side of Mexico will make the current forecasts of Stan's motion Wednesday and beyond very dubious. And to complicate matters further, a non-tropical low pressure system is forecast to form over the Gulf of Mexico by Thursday, potentially making a set of three storms that will all interact in unpredictable ways. One positive note about this development is that the upper-level winds associated with this new non-tropical low would bring significant wind shear and weaken Stan--if he is still there. If Stan is not there, at least one model (the UKMET) suggests that this non-tropical low would meander over the Gulf of Mexico for many days, and potentially acquire tropical characteristics and become a tropical storm.

The larger threat to the U.S.?
The greater threat to the U.S. may be the spinning area of intense thunderstorms approaching the central Bahama Islands. This system is an upper-level low pressure system that is interacting with a surface trough of low pressure, and slowly making the transition from a cold-cored non-tropical low to a warm-cored tropical system. While the shear is a high 20 knots over the system today, the shear is expected to decrease to 10 knots tomorrow, accompanied by the formation of an upper-level anticyclone on top. This system has the potential to become a tropical depression tomorrow, and a reconnaissance flight is scheduled for Tuesday at 11 am. Model projections indicate the entire East Coast from Florida to the Carolinas to New England may be at risk from this system. This storm may strike Florida as a tropical depression or weak tropical storm on Wednesday morning. Beaches along central Florida are already suffering erosion from the large pounding waves emanating from this disturbance.


Figure 1. BAMM model forecast track of Bahamas suspect area.

Mid-Atlantic disturbance
A low pressure system accompanied by a concentrated area of thunderstorms has developed this morning halfway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, at about 14N 36W. This system has some impressive spiral banding, but is now fighting some significant wind shear, and looks less likely to develop into Tropical Depression 21. It is expected to move northward the next five days over open waters and not threaten any land areas.

Tropical Storm Otis
Tropical Storm Otis has decayed to a 40-mph tropical storm, and is forecast to remain just offshore Baja California and continue to weaken and eventually dissipate two days from now. Otis is not likely to cause any problems for Mexico or Arizona.

Jeff Masters

Stan: Heavy Rain & Wind (cleo85)
PaaMul, Yucatan Peninsula, 30 miles north of Tulum
Stan: Heavy Rain & Wind

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503. groundedtruccr
7:45 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
PLEASE don't say that it looks charlieish. The eye ripped through here and people still don't have homes. If you did'nt go through it don't say it.
502. alabamawatcher
9:17 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
Hello Everyone from Alabama.
It does seems like it's getting interesting out there in the Atlantic.Of course I wouldn't know whar was really going on out there if it wasn't for this website. Everyone seems to be very friendly.
The beaches in MS and AL were just heartbreaking to see. I really don't understand why there wasn't more coverage of the damage in those places.
501. sunshinestate
8:45 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
888, your grammar needs much needed improvement along with spelling. Where did you go to school......or did you?
500. 8888888889gg
8:42 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
new blog is out be the by DR JEFF
499. irecthh
8:41 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
new post out
498. 8888888889gg
8:39 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
i think it wiil be cool if we did had a Z storm out there but out to sea but we do not why i do not no
497. HurricaneZane
8:36 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
too much going on ,and not enough time in the day...

496. WillJax
8:34 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
That area just north of Puerto Rico is beginning to look more and more disturbed. IMHO, it's possible that it can be drawn northward a little bit by the circulation to its northwest. The bahamas circulation will hit Florida and make its way, leaving Puerto Rico system to do its thing. I just have no clue as to potential intenstiy, though.

I'm also starting to think that if the area just above 50W 10N may have a chance at developing if it can survive the shear and make it past the Lesser Antilles.
Member Since: September 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 33
495. Hydrocvl
8:27 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
later leftyy
494. leftyy420
8:22 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
be back later guys
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
493. leftyy420
8:19 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
yeah stormy
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
492. HurricaneZane
8:17 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
I see what your saying Stormy. I wish I was there with ya...
491. caneman
8:16 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
I think for those of us less well versed in meteorology, we should call these disturbances "blobs" until they get a real name like TDxx or TSXXXXX.

So now my focus is on Bahama Blob until it either interacts land as a low TS or moves out into the wide open seas. Pray that it does not become a 'cane.
Member Since: May 27, 2003 Posts: 14 Comments: 100
490. stormydee
8:16 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
almost lefty time...will be back. :)
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
489. cirrocumulus
8:16 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
The discussions on blobs are out of NOAA Miami and Tampa under the NOAA website.
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
488. caneman
8:14 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
HurricaneZane

Thanks
Member Since: May 27, 2003 Posts: 14 Comments: 100
487. stormydee
8:14 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
Yes Zane, bought a digital and didn't have time at work today to install it and then upload the pics...will try in the next day or two...will let u know when they are posted.
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
486. cirrocumulus
8:14 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
Know this caneman: there are many and various outflow boundaries from last nights storms in Florida and surrounding areas. Did you read the post here by someone in Augustine?
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
485. HurricaneZane
8:12 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
stormy.. did you take pic's of pensacola while you were there this weekend?
484. 8888888889gg
8:12 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
yes i did say that i hop that we get to W but i did not mean to say it like that i hop that W will go out to sea
483. caneman
8:12 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
Have I read the NOAA discussion. no. Where is it? And is it written in english or phd talk?
Member Since: May 27, 2003 Posts: 14 Comments: 100
482. leftyy420
8:11 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
stormy i posted the info on the worng system,. i miss read the long and lat. i thought it was 73w when its 37 west. told u i need to wake up
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
481. HurricaneZane
8:10 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
Caneman.. here is a link to the latest model on Bahama blob...

Link
480. stormydee
8:10 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
I see, 37 not 73, got it...
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
479. cirrocumulus
8:09 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
As Kansas soldier stated, speed kills because those fronts let the atmosphere in Kansas stabilize once the temp drops and high pressure cumulus are seen. In this case, the system is moving into land soon at too fast a forward speed. Read NOAA discussion. Have you done that yet?
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
478. leftyy420
8:09 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
cane no one can narrow it. anywhere from the keys to va is possible. we do not know exactly where she will form, and her strength could impact her path as well as exact orientation of the ridge and its axis. so many variables and no good models runs on it yet. so thats an impossible question to answer
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
477. jagatorville
8:09 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
888...EXCUSE ME!! I must have read your post wrong. I thought you said you hope we make it to the W storm this year. Sounds like a sick dream to me! I haven't posted to you before now but, have read a lot of what you've posted and am not impressed at all. You're predictions are based off of what???? In your case...wishful thinking I guess? How about sharing some of your reasoning behind your predictions when you post them?
476. 8888888889gg
8:09 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
i got news for you stan is moveing nearly stationary as of the 1 pm up date on stan
475. FLGLFCST
8:09 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
Ok 88888888889gg, that last comment even made me go, HUH?
474. stormydee
8:07 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
lefty whats wrong with your post? Maybe Im sleeping too????
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
473. caneman
8:07 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
Lefty, any thougts on the general direction? Accuweather offes up a ton of possibilities, I was hoping you or someone could perhaps narrow it a bit Link
Member Since: May 27, 2003 Posts: 14 Comments: 100
472. leftyy420
8:06 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
latest recon on stan

URNT12 KNHC 031940
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 03/19:20:00Z
B. 20 deg 05 min N
092 deg 22 min W
C. 700 mb 3052 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 189 deg 041 kt
G. 132 deg 056 nm
H. 996 mb
I. 8 C/ 3050 m
J. 11 C/ 3048 m
K. 11 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 3 nm
P. AF309 0520A STAN OB 14
MAX FL WIND 41 KT E QUAD 19:04:30 Z
MAX FL TEMP 12 C, 134 / 9NM INBOUND FROM CTR
MAX FL TEMP 15 C, 315 / 6NM OUTBOUND FROM CTR
SFC WINDS NOT VISIBLE ON INBOUND LEG
RADAR PRESENTATION POOR
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
471. cirrocumulus
8:06 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
If Stan does stall, the cold front appears to hinder things but the placement of high pressure behind the front seems to allow Stan to then move north. Especially now that Denver forecast discussion doesn't seem to think the third front is as potent. That is if Stan stalls.
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
470. leftyy420
8:05 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
here is the dissucion on the system east of the bahhamas. the ull has become a ull trough, it is opening up basically as it becomes warm core, and spawned a surface trof, first tsage of forming a surface low from a transitioning ull. so its still in the process but suspect we will have a low pressure system form in 24 hrs and than we shoudl know more

A SURFACE TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 31N72W TO 21N74W
AND COVERING THE AREA WITH SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION WITHIN 150 NM OF LINE 25N69W-30N71W AND CLUSTERS OF
SIMILAR CONVECTION COVERING THE AREA WITHIN 250 NM OF LINE FROM
THE N CARIBBEAN ISLANDS NEAR 18N65W TO 26N70W
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
469. caneman
8:05 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
ok, point taken, does anyone have any insight on the bahama blob? The kansassoldier guy offered a provocative post, can anyone expand on that?
Member Since: May 27, 2003 Posts: 14 Comments: 100
468. 8888888889gg
8:04 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
: quakeman55 do not start with me
467. quakeman55
8:03 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
Agreed there Squirrel...he sounds like a little kid or something :-P
Member Since: March 31, 2002 Posts: 1 Comments: 1276
466. 8888888889gg
8:03 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
i no my grammar is a little LOL but i can do what i can do may time you or any one can help me out some times
465. HurricaneZane
8:03 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
We are only joking caneman.. You are very funny.

Listen, if I lived on the treasure coast, after Jeanne and Frances last year.. I would be jumpy too!!

This time.. I think you might have something to look at...
464. caneman
8:02 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
Forgot to add.......no, it won't be the indian/pacific/artic/antarcic/s. pacific oceans either.

Instead of being a piss poor comedian, perhaps you could offer a useful reply?
Member Since: May 27, 2003 Posts: 14 Comments: 100
463. leftyy420
8:02 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
sorry dissregard my post. need to wake up from my nap. thts the system dr.masters was tlaking about in the atlantic
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
462. SquirrelRJ
8:00 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
8888888889gg , you have to work on your grammar, i'm sure people would love to answer your 400 questions, but it's nearly impossible to decifer what you are trying to say in the first place.

461. caneman
8:00 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
Any chance caneman will ask about the chance of every blob/depression/tropical storm/hurricane/tornado in the Atlantic/Pacific/Inian Ocean/Solar System hitting the SE coast of FL?

I would say "better than average" Of course, if someone would provide an understandable answer, even if its only their hypothesis, I'd stop asking.
Member Since: May 27, 2003 Posts: 14 Comments: 100
460. leftyy420
7:58 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
hgoustonian, i stated that some models weakened the ridge forcing stan to possibly move north or east. i never said u were wrong. now even dr.masters and the nhc are saying that at the least the steering currents will weaken as that roidge is erroded and stan coyuld stall. not a good sign. i made my statments in part of a disscussion on what the models say. thats what i use for tracks and i belive i also said we would know more as soon as the models got a handle on the system and i also said we will see, meaning lets see what happens.


the ull low has now spawned a surface low. here is the disscussion by the nhc so u guys can get a sense where it is and hwats going on

A 1010 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 21N37W MOVING NNW NEAR 10 KT.
LOW LEVEL CENTER IS ILL-DEFINED WITH THE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION
WELL TO THE E DUE TO SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. CLUSTERS OF SCATTERED
MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION ARE WITHIN 75 NM OF LINE
20N34W-23N38W WITH A SECOND AREA FURTHER E FROM 18N-21N BETWEEN
27W-30W.
Member Since: August 24, 2005 Posts: 35 Comments: 1987
459. HurricaneZane
7:58 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
LOL timl2k5!!! I think he's saying is "will it hit the treasure coast of FL.?"

458. 8888888889gg
7:57 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
jagatorville do not start with me today i am haveing a good day her ok and i no that do you think that i would like to one more hurricane makeing landfall this year NO but you can not tell a hurricane where to go right or can you
457. BlueWatch
7:57 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
orion - I'm an optimist! Or..a pessimist, I guess.
Based on the season we've had thus far, while gamma might be a stretch, I don't think it's completely unreasonable.

456. cirrocumulus
7:57 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
Denver forecast discussion allows another bit of warmup before the second front and possibly better yet before a third. The second one looks to stop Stan a little from trying to get north after high pressure erodes.
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
455. timl2k5
7:56 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
Any chance caneman will ask about the chance of every blob/depression/tropical storm/hurricane/tornado in the Atlantic/Pacific/Inian Ocean/Solar System hitting the SE coast of FL?
454. oriondarkwood
7:55 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
BlueWatch,

IMHO Gamma might be pushing it, if I had to place money I say Beta. 6 storms in 7 weeks?? But then again its the season of 2005 which we probably be talking about for years to come..

FYI the Greek Alphabet has 24 letters to get to Tropical System Omega we would need 4 storms a week for the next 6 weeks
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
453. jagatorville
7:54 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
888...you're hopes are someone elses fears! You're obvisously a very hateful person or someone that's never had to deal with the aftermath of named storms. People actually die from these things man, what's wrong with you?

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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