Karl hits the Yucatan; two simultaneous Cat 4s in the Atlantic for 2nd time in history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:37 PM GMT on September 15, 2010

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The Atlantic hurricane season of 2010 kicked into high gear this morning, with the landfall of Tropical Storm Karl in Mexico, and the simultaneous presence of two Category 4 hurricanes in the Atlantic, Igor and Julia. Tropical Storm Karl's formation yesterday marked the fifth earliest date that an eleventh named storm of the season has formed. The only years more active this early in the season were 2005, 1995, 1936 and 1933. This morning's unexpected intensification of Hurricane Julia into a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds has set a new record--Julia is now the strongest hurricane on record so far east. When one considers that earlier this year, Hurricane Earl became the fourth strongest hurricane so far north, it appears that this year's record SSTs have significantly expanded the area over which major hurricanes can exist over the Atlantic. This morning is just the second time in recorded history that two simultaneous Category 4 or stronger storms have occurred in the Atlantic. The only other occurrence was on 06 UTC September 16, 1926, when the Great Miami Hurricane and Hurricane Four were both Category 4 storms for a six-hour period. The were also two years, 1999 and 1958, when we missed having two simultaneous Category 4 hurricanes by six hours. Julia's ascension to Category 4 status makes it the 4th Category 4 storm of the year. Only two other seasons have had as many as five Category 4 or stronger storms (2005 and 1999), so 2010 ranks in 3rd place in this statistic. This year is also the earliest a fourth Category 4 or stronger storm has formed (though the fourth Category 4 of 1999, Hurricane Gert, formed just 3 hours later on today's date in 1999.) We've also had four Cat 4+ storms in just twenty days, which beats the previous record for shortest time span for four Cat 4+ storms to appear. The previous record was 1999, 24 days (thanks to Phil Klozbach of CSU for this stat.)


Figure 1. A rare double feature: two simultaneous Category 4 hurricanes in the Atlantic, for only the second time in recorded history.

Karl
Tropical Storm Karl made landfall as a strong tropical storm with 65 mph winds and a central pressure of 991 mb at 8:45am EDT this morning on Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, just north of the Belize border. Karl took advantage of nearly ideal conditions for intensification, and in just fifteen hours intensified from a tropical disturbance to a strong tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Had Karl managed to get its act together just one day earlier, it could have been a major hurricane at landfall this morning. Fortunately, Karl has a relatively small area of strong winds--tropical storm force winds extend out just 45 miles from the center of the storm, and wind damage is not the main concern. Heavy rains are the main concern, and Belize radar shows heavy rain bands from Karl spreading ashore over northern Belize near the border with Mexico. Cancun radar shows that heavy rains are relatively limited, though, near the tourist havens of Cancun and Cozumel.


Figure 2. Radar image of Karl at landfall this morning near the northern Belize/Mexican border. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.

Forecast for Karl
Karl will traverse the Yucatan Peninsula today and emerge into the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche Thursday morning as a much weakened tropical storm, with perhaps 40 - 45 mph top winds. Once in the Gulf, conditions for intensification are ideal, with wind shear is expected to be low, 5 - 10 knots, SSTs will be warm, 29°C - 30°C, and the atmosphere very moist. These conditions, combined with the topography of the surrounding coast which tends to enhance counter-clockwise flow, should allow Karl to intensify into a strong tropical storm or a Category 1 hurricane before making landfall between Tampico and Vercruz, Mexico on Saturday morning. However, since Karl is a small storm, it is possible that passage over the Yucatan will disrupt the storm enough so that it will be much weaker. The ridge of high pressure steering Karl westwards is quite strong, and it is very unlikely that the storm will turn northwest and hit Texas. NHC is giving Brownsville, Texas, an 10% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph.

Igor
Hurricane Igor put on a burst of intensification last night to put it at its strongest yet, a top-end Category 4 hurricane with 155 mph winds. Igor has weakened slightly this morning, but remains a formidable presence in the Central Atlantic with its 145 mph winds. Igor continues to show the classic appearance of a major hurricane on satellite imagery, with a well-formed eye, symmetrical cloud pattern, plenty of low-level spiral bands, and solid upper-level outflow on all sides.


Figure 3. Hurricane Igor as captured at 18 UTC Tuesday September 14, 2010, from the International Space Station. Image credit: Douglas Wheelock, NASA.

Intensity forecast for Igor
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is expected to remain low for the next 2 - 3 days. Waters are warm, 29°C, and will remain 29°C for the next 2 - 3 days. Igor is well armored against any intrusions of dry air for at least the next three days. These conditions should allow Igor to remain at major hurricane status for the next three days. The hurricane will probably undergo one of the usual eyewall replacement cycles intense hurricanes commonly have, where the eyewall collapses and a new eyewall forms from an outer spiral band. This will weaken the hurricane by 10 - 20 mph when it occurs, and may be responsible for the 10 mph weakening Igor experienced early this morning. Igor may regain its lost intensity over the next 36 hours. By Saturday morning, 36 hours before the core of Igor is expected to pass Bermuda's latitude, the trough of low pressure steering Igor northwestwards should bring moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots to the storm, weakening it. The SHIPS models predicts shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, during the final 24 hours of the storm's approach to Bermuda. Igor will also be tracking over cooler 28°C waters during this period, and substantial weakening by perhaps 20 - 30 mph can be expected. Igor will still probably be at least a Category 2 hurricane on its closest pass by Bermuda on Sunday. NHC is giving Bermuda a 13% chance of experiencing hurricane force winds from Igor, but this probability is likely too low. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 or 2 hurricane conditions for the island on Sunday, with 20 - 25 foot waves in the offshore waters.

Track forecast for Igor
The track forecast for Igor remains unchanged. Igor has made its long-anticipated turn to the west-northwest, in response to the steering influence of a broad trough of low pressure moving across the Western Atlantic. This trough will steer Igor several hundred miles to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles, and high waves should be the only impact of Igor on the islands. Igor appears likely to be a threat to Bermuda, and that island can expect tropical storm force winds as early as Saturday. Igor will be moving at about 12 - 15 mph as it approaches Bermuda. Tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph will probably extend out about 250 miles to the north of Igor on Saturday, so Bermuda can expect 18 hours of tropical storm force winds before the core of Igor makes its closest pass. In all, Bermuda is likely to experience a very long pounding of 24 - 36 hours with winds in excess of tropical storm force.

The models have been in substantial agreement over multiple runs that Igor will miss the U.S. East Coast, and the danger to the U.S. will probably only come in the form of high waves. Large swells from Igor have arrived in the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and will spread westwards over the next few days, reaching the U.S. East Coast on Friday. By Saturday, much of the East Coast from northern Florida to Cape Cod Massachusetts can expect waves of 3 - 4 meters (10 - 13 feet), causing dangerous rip currents and significant beach erosion. These waves will continue through Sunday then gradually die down. The latest NOAA marine forecast for Cape Hatteras, North Carolina calls for 8 - 10 foot waves on Saturday, and 9 - 12 foot waves on Sunday.

Igor may pass very close to Newfoundland, Canada, but it is too early too assess the likelihood of this happening.

Julia
Hurricane Julia put on a remarkable and unexpected burst of intensification this morning to become the season's fourth Category 4 storm. Julia's 135 mph winds make it the strongest hurricane on record so far east; the previous record was held by the eighth storm of 1926 which was only a 120 mph Category 3 hurricane at Julia's current longitude. Julia's intensification was a surprise, since SSTs in the region are about 27.5°C, which is just 1°C above the threshold needed to sustain a Category 1 hurricane. Julia is headed northwest, out to sea, and it is unlikely that this storm will trouble any land areas. SSTs will steadily cool to 26.5°C today, and further intensification today is unlikely. Shear will be moderate, 10 - 20 knots, over Julia during the next two days, then rise sharply to 30 knots 3 - 5 days from now, as Julia moves within 1000 miles of Igor and begins to experience strong northwesterly winds from her big brother's upper level outflow. This should substantially weaken Julia.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and ECMWF models develop a new tropical depression a few hundred miles off the coast of Africa 3 - 6 days from now. The GFS also develops a tropical depression in the eastern Caribbean 6 - 7 days from now.

Portlight's 2-year anniversary
On September 14, 2008, the devastation wrought by Hurricane Ike on Texas and Louisiana moved members of the wunderground community to put into action their own impromptu relief effort. From this humble beginning has grown a disaster-relief charity I have been proud to support--Portlight.org. We've been blessed this hurricane season with relatively few landfalling storms, so Portlight's new disaster relief trailer (Figure 4), financed with a $21,500 grant from the Christopher and Dana Reeve Foundation, has yet to be deployed. With five weeks of peak hurricane season still to come, the new trailer may yet get a call to action. The mobile kitchen in the trailer will be able to feed several hundred people per day, and the trailer is equipped with portable ramps to help with shelter accessibility, as well as durable medical equipment to facilitate mobility and independence for survivors. The trailer is mobile, and Portlight is willing to load it up and fly it to Bermuda, if Igor ends up making a mess there!

The lack of landfalling storms has allowed Portlight to continue to concentrate their efforts on Haiti, where their assistance has been a tremendous boost for those most in need, the disabled. Portlight is working on constructing steel shelters out of shipping containers for homeless Haitians, as detailed in the Haitian Relief Recap blog post. Please visit the Portlight.org web site or the Portlight blog to learn more and donate. A few other items of note:

Portlight has been able to facilitate providing assistance to people with disabilities in Pakistan, where the worst natural disaster in their history has left 4 million homeless. While not directly involved in delivering relief, Portlight has been able to connect local Disabled People's Organizations with important sources of food, water, filtration systems, and medical equipment.

ABC News4 in Charleston broadcast a story about the Portlight relief trailer, and Portlight has also been featured on the Pacifica Radio Network.

Portlight launched a quarterly newsletter, The Portlight View, which can be seen on the newly redesigned website.


Figure 4. The new Portlight disaster relief trailer, funded by their $21,500 grant from the Christopher and Dana Reeve foundation.

I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting robert88:
TX won't have to keep an eye on Karl. He will be well S of there. HP is strong over TX. The track could end up being slightly more S than expected. S TX will be lucky to get a drop of rain.
Its been raining off and on for 2-days here in S.Texas Karls cloud canopy extends all the way to Louisiana.
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2885. CalTex
2877. Grenada 10:23 AM GMT on September 16, 2010

I've not forgotten those islands. I even went so far as to check on today's conditions for Martinique. Weather.com said winds to 13mph and 87% chance for rain. I wonder if they are planning on this system being farther north than it is. Igor is very, very stubborn...
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


actually if it stays at the current intesity or even weakens just slightly for the next 3 days it will be around 46 ACE


He would, but he's not going to stay at that intensity for the next 3 days.

He'll be close. Depends how quick he weakens as he moves northward. He could beat it, considering his persistence. Be quite some feat to break 50 ACE, doesn't occur often.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
2883. Grenada
Quoting Cotillion:


The Leeward Islands are safe from Igor, unless you go swimming in the seas - the currents will be very strong.

Bermuda has a very real threat though, which has been discussed already. Conditions will go downhill from Sunday. It's just the question of how far downhill.


Thanks for that Cotillion, I just know how it feels to have one headed directly for you. :)
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Quoting Grenada:
Sorry long time lurker here with little real knowledge of the weather but whilst you argue amongst yourselves let us not forget the Northern Leeward Islands and Bermuda. Igor must be scaring the pants off the inhabitants of those Islands.


The Leeward Islands are safe from Igor, unless you go swimming in the seas - the currents will be very strong.

Bermuda has a very real threat though, which has been discussed already. Conditions will go downhill from Sunday. It's just the question of how far downhill.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
In a few days the pattern will shift everything more westerly.So lets hope Igor is way north by then, otherwise big trouble.Igor seems to stall.Florida should watch this very carefully,fingers crossed.
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Quoting Cotillion:


Due to Igor's persistence at keeping to Category Four and possibly being slower than expected, he has a very, very good chance at surpassing Ike.

He's only about 10 behind, which would take only 3 days or so at major hurricane status. He's also surprised me, I didn't think he would (albeit, thinking he'd be very close to doing so). The next highest of the last 6 or so years would be Frances, near 46. He'll more than likely fall short of that.


actually if it stays at the current intesity or even weakens just slightly for the next 3 days it will be around 46 ACE
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aspectre "16Sep . 09amGMT - - 20.5n56.8w - - 145mph - - 925mb - - [NHC.Adv.]#33"
2856 CalTexOkay "so why did the 5 AM EDT advisory say 929mb?"

Probably just a transcription error on my part.
Thanks for the correction; edited into the original comment.
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Quoting islander101010:
ace is a bad measurement of the severity of the hurricane season im on jb side this time it does not matter unless it affects people


I can appreciate that stance, however invoking JB sorta dilutes the point. He contradicts for the sake of contradicting (case in point: the notion that simply calculating maximum low pressure will somehow make it easier to register how active a season is. *headdesk).

On the other hand, he gets a lot of hits for his site, so can't fault him for that.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
2877. Grenada
Sorry long time lurker here with little real knowledge of the weather but whilst you argue amongst yourselves let us not forget the Northern Leeward Islands and Bermuda. Igor must be scaring the pants off the inhabitants of those Islands.
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Quoting carlos1993:
Thats right, also the last hurricane with a total ACE above 30 was Ike in 2008.


Due to Igor's persistence at keeping to Category Four and possibly being slower than expected, he has a very, very good chance at surpassing Ike.

He's only about 10 behind, which would take only 3 days or so at major hurricane status. He's also surprised me, I didn't think he would (albeit, thinking he'd be very close to doing so). The next highest of the last 6 or so years would be Frances, near 46. He'll more than likely fall short of that.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Good morning all

Wonder if Igor will get that eye cleared out. Looks like it would have one huge eye if it could manage that. You can really see the outflow extending to the NW where he will start to head. He sure has been one slow mover though.

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2874. IKE
Quoting CoopsWife:
Ooops - forgot my manners, good morning everyone. coffee and fresh fruit on the sideboard. I'm too lazy this am to cook anything. :)

Ike - that weakending of the front and the stall off the coast is probably not good news for Bermuda, eh? I know this isn't the trof that lifts it NE, but any slow down in the pattern of recurrent trofs (the push to the east) can't be helpful.


Bermuda appears to be in the cross-hairs with Igor and this season.

So does the Yucatan...SW GOM and Mexico. Extreme southern Texas on prior systems. Northern islands with Earl and a couple that went north of them.
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Karl is putting his act together.
We will see an eye tonight.
Will reach CAT2-3 status i think.
Lets hope he does not want to go north otherwise texas could be in trouble.
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2872. vince1
Quoting NOLA2005:


I wasn't saying they were 900 miles apart now, just speculating on the max. distance they could be for the F Effect to occur.

I wasn't trying to imply anything, was just determining the distance for my own edification and sharing my boring findings with everybody else. Touchy blog, lol.
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Quoting Neapolitan:
I've a feeling that, given his small size and the very favorable environment he's in, it won't take Karl until tomorrow to hit hurricane status. his COC is still very evident on satellite, outflow seems more than adequate, and he's maintaining some very cold cloud tops.


I wouldn't be surprised, either. It has time over water and has already started to intensify. I think the NHC intensity estimations are only going to go in one direction: up.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
TX won't have to keep an eye on Karl. He will be well S of there. HP is strong over TX. The track could end up being slightly more S than expected. S TX will be lucky to get a drop of rain.
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Ooops - forgot my manners, good morning everyone. coffee and fresh fruit on the sideboard. I'm too lazy this am to cook anything. :)

Ike - that weakending of the front and the stall off the coast is probably not good news for Bermuda, eh? I know this isn't the trof that lifts it NE, but any slow down in the pattern of recurrent trofs (the push to the east) can't be helpful.
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Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


the ACE from Igor will cross 30 today
Thats right, also the last hurricane with a total ACE above 30 was Ike in 2008.
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I think I just saw Igor making a move towards Florida.Lets hope he makes the turn.
Keep safe.
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Quoting NOLA2005:
Found this incredible loop of Igor: Link
Not recommended for slow connections.


That is amazing. Watching the sun set by shadows on the eye wall. Really shows nature as she is, an incredible combination of beauty and violence.
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Quoting islander101010:
ace is a bad measurement of the severity of the hurricane season im on jb side this time it does not matter unless it affects people



So to you this season is below average then right???
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Tidewater region of VA - short term...

I sure wish this front were stronger so the stall off the coast would bring us some rain. Nice cool down by Saturday, but only for a day..., then the high builds right back in.



&&


Short term /Friday through Saturday/...
the cold front loses some momentum as it passes through the region
and actually stalls near southeast Virginia/NE NC on Friday. Because of this have
had to add some slight chance probability of precipitation to these areas Friday after/evening as
models hinting at the possibility of isolated showers. Not much of a
cool down is expected in the wake of the front. Highs Friday will
still reach the middle-80s to around 90.


High pressure will build over the region on Saturday. This will
result in a mostly sunny sky and pleasantly warm temperatures. Highs will
range from near 80 over the Eastern Shore to the middle-80s in south-
central Virginia/NE NC.
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ace is a bad measurement of the severity of the hurricane season im on jb side this time it does not matter unless it affects people
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Buoy 41044



30 ft waves already
Sustained Tropical Storm force winds
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Good morning, everyone.
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Quoting Neapolitan:


If death, destruction, and chaos are what's most important to you, I suppose you're right; ACE really only matters to people like me who foolishly care about tropical meteorology. :-)

(BTW: Igor's ACE will go beyond Earl's as of the next TWO.)


the ACE from Igor will cross 30 today
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Karl has time enough to become hurricane.
Especially if he goes a little more to the north.Texas should watch this.
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Quoting islander101010:
it does not matter what the ace is except for the record keepers what really matters is landfalls 1992 is way ahead


If death, destruction, and chaos are what's most important to you, I suppose you're right; ACE really only matters to people like me who foolishly care about tropical meteorology. :-)

(BTW: Igor's ACE will go beyond Earl's as of the next TWO.)
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2856. CalTex

From the NHC: 16Sep . 09amGMT - - 20.5n56.8w - - 145mph - - 925mb - - #33

Okay, so why did the 5 AM EDT advisory say 929mb?
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2855. IKE
NW FL. panhandle....another week of hot and dry weather....

LONG TERM...SAT NIGHT THROUGH NEXT THU.
VIRTUALLY NO CHANGE IN THINKING FROM LAST NIGHT`S DISCUSSION...AS
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WHICH HAS BEEN SO DOMINANT THROUGHOUT THIS
PARTICULAR SUMMER WILL CONTINUE TO BE SO THROUGHOUT THE UPCOMING
PERIOD.
THIS WILL KEEP CONDITIONS HOT AND FAIRLY HUMID FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR WITH BOTH HIGHS AND LOWS AVERAGING ABOVE CLIMO VALUES WITH
THE MORE PRONOUNCED DEPARTURES EXPECTED TO BE WITH THE AFTERNOON
HIGHS. ALSO...THIS PATTERN FAVORS THE CONTINUATION OF THE RECENT
VERY DRY PATTERN IN TERMS OF PRECIPITATION...SO SEE NO REASON AT
THIS TIME TO INTRODUCE ANYTHING ABOVE SILENT 10 POPS THROUGH THE
ENTIRE EXTENDED FCST.
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I've a feeling that, given his small size and the very favorable environment he's in, it won't take Karl until tomorrow to hit hurricane status. his COC is still very evident on satellite, outflow seems more than adequate, and he's maintaining some very cold cloud tops.
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it does not matter what the ace is except for the record keepers what really matters is landfalls 1992 is way ahead
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TropicalStormKarl's heading had turned westward to (7.6degrees west of) WestNorthWest
from its previous heading of (9.9degrees north of) WestNorthWest
TS.Karl's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~9mph(~14.5km/h)

15Sep . 09amGMT - - 18.5n86.7w - - 65mph - - - 995mb - - NHC.Adv.#3
15Sep . 12pmGMT - - 18.6n87.6w - - 65mph - - - 991mb - - #3A
15Sep . 03pmGMT - - 18.6n88.2w - - 60mph - - - 992mb - - #4
15Sep . 06pmGMT - - 18.8n88.7w - - 55mph - - - 994mb - - #4A
15Sep . 09pmGMT - - 19.0n89.4w - - 45mph - - - 997mb - - #5
16Sep . 12amGMT - - 19.2n90.1w - - 40mph - - 1000mb - - #5A
16Sep . 03amGMT - - 19.4n90.7w - - 40mph - - 1000mb - - #6
16Sep . 06amGMT - - 19.7n91.2w - - 40mph - - 1000mb - - #6A
16Sep . 09amGMT - - 19.8n91.6w - - 50mph - - 1000mb - - #7

Copy &paste 18.5n86.7w, 18.6n87.6w, 18.6n88.2w, 18.8n88.7w, 19.0n89.4w-19.2n90.1w, 19.2n90.1w-19.4n90.7w, 19.4n90.7w-19.7n91.2w, 19.7n91.2w-19.8n91.6w, 19.8n91.6w-[], tam, mbj, 19.8n91.6w-21.15n97.4w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12*hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~42hours from now to Balcazar,Veracruz,Mexico

* The westernmost line-segment is the straightline projection.
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We could be around 108 by the end of the day especially if Karl starts getting into the game today
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Well, I thought it wouldn't happen until the 11 AM TWO, but thanks to a resurgent Igor, ACE for the season is now 100.0975, the vast bulk of that coming in the past 26 days. Wow...

(Edit: whoops, I see I cross-posted with WeatherNerdPR...who is correct, and the Wiki numbers are corroborated.)
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Quoting CalTex:
2838. Cotillion 9:14 AM GMT on September 16, 2010

Thank you for the explanation. I've noticed that Igor's size is enlarging again and he's heading into the warmest waters yet, so maybe the 929mb is right. Cat 5 coming or has he peaked already?


Right now, he's still not fully organised from his EWRC. I've said all along I think he'll end up being just shy of Cat 5 status. I don't think he'll make it now, either. He's going over the same degree of water that he has been doing. Might intensify again a bit more, 150mph or so again, probably.

On the other hand, Julia looks a mess right now.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Got to get going now...
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Quoting Cotillion:
Should make 100 ACE by the end of today, a very healthy total. Slightly surprised it came so quickly (thought it'd come around Saturday, early Sunday), but then I was disbelieving of the Euro bombing Julia - and it was correct.


According to the ACE chart on Wikipedia, we already have. Current ACE: 100.1
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HurricaneIgor
15Sep . 09amGMT - - 19.5n54.5w - - 145mph - - 935mb - - NHC.Adv.#29
15Sep . 03pmGMT - - 19.8n55.0w - - 135mph - - 942mb - - #30
15Sep . 09pmGMT - - 20.1n55.6w - - 135mph - - 942mb - - #31
16Sep . 03amGMT - - 20.2n56.5w - - 135mph - - 942mb - - #32
16Sep . 09amGMT - - 20.5n56.8w - - 145mph - - 929mb - - #33

Copy&paste 19.5n54.5w-19.8n55.0w, 19.8n55.0w-20.1n55.6w, 20.1n55.6w-20.2n56.5w, 20.2n56.5w-20.5n56.8w, gdt, bda,
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Quoting CalTex:
2842. NOLA2005 9:24 AM GMT on September 16, 2010

Thanks, just terrific. Maybe we can find an unpopulated place for it to hit...lol.


From your lips to God's ears...
Everyone chant "Stay out of the Gulf, stay out of the Gulf", etc. Hey, it could work! ;)
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2844. CalTex
2842. NOLA2005 9:24 AM GMT on September 16, 2010

Thanks, just terrific. Maybe we can find an unpopulated place for it to hit...lol.
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2843. CalTex
2838. Cotillion 9:14 AM GMT on September 16, 2010

Thank you for the explanation. I've noticed that Igor's size is enlarging again and he's heading into the warmest waters yet, so maybe the 929mb is right. Cat 5 coming or has he peaked already?
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CalTex,

The GFS keeps showing something developing for the Gulf around the end of next week, but as of now, I don't think it has any other model support. I think I'm gonna try to wait a little longer and see.....
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THIS APPEARS TO BE DUE TO
THAT MODEL SHOWING A SLIGHTLY WEAKER RIDGE TODAY...WHICH ALLOWS
IGOR TO GAIN A LITTLE MORE LATITUDE EARLY ON AND EVENTUALLY PASS A
LITTLE FARTHER EAST OF BERMUDA. HOWEVER...ALL OF THE GUIDANCE IS
WELL CLUSTERED ON A TRACK CLOSE TO THAT ISLAND...AND LITTLE CHANGE
HAS BEEN MADE TO THE OFFICIAL TRACK NEAR BERMUDA. SINCE THIS IS
SUCH A LARGE HURRICANE...SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ARE EXPECTED ON
BERMUDA...BUT IT IS TOO EARLY TO TELL HOW CLOSE THE CORE OF THE
HURRICANE...AND THE STRONGEST WINDS...WILL COME TO THAT ISLAND.


Well, for the time being at least, it could hardly come any closer. Hopefully, that's the nadir and Igor can shift further away from it.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Should make 100 ACE by the end of today, a very healthy total. Slightly surprised it came so quickly (thought it'd come around Saturday, early Sunday), but then I was disbelieving of the Euro bombing Julia - and it was correct.

Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting vince1:
According to my calculations based on current locations, the storms are 1331 miles apart.


I wasn't saying they were 900 miles apart now, just speculating on the max. distance they could be for the F Effect to occur.
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Quoting CalTex:
2835. Cotillion 9:05 AM GMT on September 16, 2010

Wow, Igor at 929mb, it's been a while since he was under 930mb. Could you answer me this - is the oblong eye in recent frames an indication that the inner eye has partially collapsed and the new larger eye is in the process of forming?


Yeah, Igor's finishing his EWRC.

I was surprised by that. At first, I thought Blake just went a little overboard on the pressure. Maybe he got it interpolated from somewhere, I'd expect so. As that's quite a dip.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
2837. CalTex
2835. Cotillion 9:05 AM GMT on September 16, 2010

Wow, Igor at 929mb, it's been a while since he was under 930mb. Could you answer me this - is the oblong eye in recent frames an indication that the inner eye has partially collapsed and the new larger eye is in the process of forming?
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2836. vince1
According to my calculations based on current locations, the storms are 1331 miles apart.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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