Karl hits the Yucatan; two simultaneous Cat 4s in the Atlantic for 2nd time in history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:37 PM GMT on September 15, 2010

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The Atlantic hurricane season of 2010 kicked into high gear this morning, with the landfall of Tropical Storm Karl in Mexico, and the simultaneous presence of two Category 4 hurricanes in the Atlantic, Igor and Julia. Tropical Storm Karl's formation yesterday marked the fifth earliest date that an eleventh named storm of the season has formed. The only years more active this early in the season were 2005, 1995, 1936 and 1933. This morning's unexpected intensification of Hurricane Julia into a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds has set a new record--Julia is now the strongest hurricane on record so far east. When one considers that earlier this year, Hurricane Earl became the fourth strongest hurricane so far north, it appears that this year's record SSTs have significantly expanded the area over which major hurricanes can exist over the Atlantic. This morning is just the second time in recorded history that two simultaneous Category 4 or stronger storms have occurred in the Atlantic. The only other occurrence was on 06 UTC September 16, 1926, when the Great Miami Hurricane and Hurricane Four were both Category 4 storms for a six-hour period. The were also two years, 1999 and 1958, when we missed having two simultaneous Category 4 hurricanes by six hours. Julia's ascension to Category 4 status makes it the 4th Category 4 storm of the year. Only two other seasons have had as many as five Category 4 or stronger storms (2005 and 1999), so 2010 ranks in 3rd place in this statistic. This year is also the earliest a fourth Category 4 or stronger storm has formed (though the fourth Category 4 of 1999, Hurricane Gert, formed just 3 hours later on today's date in 1999.) We've also had four Cat 4+ storms in just twenty days, which beats the previous record for shortest time span for four Cat 4+ storms to appear. The previous record was 1999, 24 days (thanks to Phil Klozbach of CSU for this stat.)


Figure 1. A rare double feature: two simultaneous Category 4 hurricanes in the Atlantic, for only the second time in recorded history.

Karl
Tropical Storm Karl made landfall as a strong tropical storm with 65 mph winds and a central pressure of 991 mb at 8:45am EDT this morning on Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, just north of the Belize border. Karl took advantage of nearly ideal conditions for intensification, and in just fifteen hours intensified from a tropical disturbance to a strong tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Had Karl managed to get its act together just one day earlier, it could have been a major hurricane at landfall this morning. Fortunately, Karl has a relatively small area of strong winds--tropical storm force winds extend out just 45 miles from the center of the storm, and wind damage is not the main concern. Heavy rains are the main concern, and Belize radar shows heavy rain bands from Karl spreading ashore over northern Belize near the border with Mexico. Cancun radar shows that heavy rains are relatively limited, though, near the tourist havens of Cancun and Cozumel.


Figure 2. Radar image of Karl at landfall this morning near the northern Belize/Mexican border. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.

Forecast for Karl
Karl will traverse the Yucatan Peninsula today and emerge into the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche Thursday morning as a much weakened tropical storm, with perhaps 40 - 45 mph top winds. Once in the Gulf, conditions for intensification are ideal, with wind shear is expected to be low, 5 - 10 knots, SSTs will be warm, 29°C - 30°C, and the atmosphere very moist. These conditions, combined with the topography of the surrounding coast which tends to enhance counter-clockwise flow, should allow Karl to intensify into a strong tropical storm or a Category 1 hurricane before making landfall between Tampico and Vercruz, Mexico on Saturday morning. However, since Karl is a small storm, it is possible that passage over the Yucatan will disrupt the storm enough so that it will be much weaker. The ridge of high pressure steering Karl westwards is quite strong, and it is very unlikely that the storm will turn northwest and hit Texas. NHC is giving Brownsville, Texas, an 10% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph.

Igor
Hurricane Igor put on a burst of intensification last night to put it at its strongest yet, a top-end Category 4 hurricane with 155 mph winds. Igor has weakened slightly this morning, but remains a formidable presence in the Central Atlantic with its 145 mph winds. Igor continues to show the classic appearance of a major hurricane on satellite imagery, with a well-formed eye, symmetrical cloud pattern, plenty of low-level spiral bands, and solid upper-level outflow on all sides.


Figure 3. Hurricane Igor as captured at 18 UTC Tuesday September 14, 2010, from the International Space Station. Image credit: Douglas Wheelock, NASA.

Intensity forecast for Igor
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is expected to remain low for the next 2 - 3 days. Waters are warm, 29°C, and will remain 29°C for the next 2 - 3 days. Igor is well armored against any intrusions of dry air for at least the next three days. These conditions should allow Igor to remain at major hurricane status for the next three days. The hurricane will probably undergo one of the usual eyewall replacement cycles intense hurricanes commonly have, where the eyewall collapses and a new eyewall forms from an outer spiral band. This will weaken the hurricane by 10 - 20 mph when it occurs, and may be responsible for the 10 mph weakening Igor experienced early this morning. Igor may regain its lost intensity over the next 36 hours. By Saturday morning, 36 hours before the core of Igor is expected to pass Bermuda's latitude, the trough of low pressure steering Igor northwestwards should bring moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots to the storm, weakening it. The SHIPS models predicts shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, during the final 24 hours of the storm's approach to Bermuda. Igor will also be tracking over cooler 28°C waters during this period, and substantial weakening by perhaps 20 - 30 mph can be expected. Igor will still probably be at least a Category 2 hurricane on its closest pass by Bermuda on Sunday. NHC is giving Bermuda a 13% chance of experiencing hurricane force winds from Igor, but this probability is likely too low. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 or 2 hurricane conditions for the island on Sunday, with 20 - 25 foot waves in the offshore waters.

Track forecast for Igor
The track forecast for Igor remains unchanged. Igor has made its long-anticipated turn to the west-northwest, in response to the steering influence of a broad trough of low pressure moving across the Western Atlantic. This trough will steer Igor several hundred miles to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles, and high waves should be the only impact of Igor on the islands. Igor appears likely to be a threat to Bermuda, and that island can expect tropical storm force winds as early as Saturday. Igor will be moving at about 12 - 15 mph as it approaches Bermuda. Tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph will probably extend out about 250 miles to the north of Igor on Saturday, so Bermuda can expect 18 hours of tropical storm force winds before the core of Igor makes its closest pass. In all, Bermuda is likely to experience a very long pounding of 24 - 36 hours with winds in excess of tropical storm force.

The models have been in substantial agreement over multiple runs that Igor will miss the U.S. East Coast, and the danger to the U.S. will probably only come in the form of high waves. Large swells from Igor have arrived in the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and will spread westwards over the next few days, reaching the U.S. East Coast on Friday. By Saturday, much of the East Coast from northern Florida to Cape Cod Massachusetts can expect waves of 3 - 4 meters (10 - 13 feet), causing dangerous rip currents and significant beach erosion. These waves will continue through Sunday then gradually die down. The latest NOAA marine forecast for Cape Hatteras, North Carolina calls for 8 - 10 foot waves on Saturday, and 9 - 12 foot waves on Sunday.

Igor may pass very close to Newfoundland, Canada, but it is too early too assess the likelihood of this happening.

Julia
Hurricane Julia put on a remarkable and unexpected burst of intensification this morning to become the season's fourth Category 4 storm. Julia's 135 mph winds make it the strongest hurricane on record so far east; the previous record was held by the eighth storm of 1926 which was only a 120 mph Category 3 hurricane at Julia's current longitude. Julia's intensification was a surprise, since SSTs in the region are about 27.5°C, which is just 1°C above the threshold needed to sustain a Category 1 hurricane. Julia is headed northwest, out to sea, and it is unlikely that this storm will trouble any land areas. SSTs will steadily cool to 26.5°C today, and further intensification today is unlikely. Shear will be moderate, 10 - 20 knots, over Julia during the next two days, then rise sharply to 30 knots 3 - 5 days from now, as Julia moves within 1000 miles of Igor and begins to experience strong northwesterly winds from her big brother's upper level outflow. This should substantially weaken Julia.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and ECMWF models develop a new tropical depression a few hundred miles off the coast of Africa 3 - 6 days from now. The GFS also develops a tropical depression in the eastern Caribbean 6 - 7 days from now.

Portlight's 2-year anniversary
On September 14, 2008, the devastation wrought by Hurricane Ike on Texas and Louisiana moved members of the wunderground community to put into action their own impromptu relief effort. From this humble beginning has grown a disaster-relief charity I have been proud to support--Portlight.org. We've been blessed this hurricane season with relatively few landfalling storms, so Portlight's new disaster relief trailer (Figure 4), financed with a $21,500 grant from the Christopher and Dana Reeve Foundation, has yet to be deployed. With five weeks of peak hurricane season still to come, the new trailer may yet get a call to action. The mobile kitchen in the trailer will be able to feed several hundred people per day, and the trailer is equipped with portable ramps to help with shelter accessibility, as well as durable medical equipment to facilitate mobility and independence for survivors. The trailer is mobile, and Portlight is willing to load it up and fly it to Bermuda, if Igor ends up making a mess there!

The lack of landfalling storms has allowed Portlight to continue to concentrate their efforts on Haiti, where their assistance has been a tremendous boost for those most in need, the disabled. Portlight is working on constructing steel shelters out of shipping containers for homeless Haitians, as detailed in the Haitian Relief Recap blog post. Please visit the Portlight.org web site or the Portlight blog to learn more and donate. A few other items of note:

Portlight has been able to facilitate providing assistance to people with disabilities in Pakistan, where the worst natural disaster in their history has left 4 million homeless. While not directly involved in delivering relief, Portlight has been able to connect local Disabled People's Organizations with important sources of food, water, filtration systems, and medical equipment.

ABC News4 in Charleston broadcast a story about the Portlight relief trailer, and Portlight has also been featured on the Pacifica Radio Network.

Portlight launched a quarterly newsletter, The Portlight View, which can be seen on the newly redesigned website.


Figure 4. The new Portlight disaster relief trailer, funded by their $21,500 grant from the Christopher and Dana Reeve foundation.

I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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We split the uprights, Teddy.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting scott39:
You do know these are TCs--right?? Im seeing too much love here!!


Compared to her two brothers, she deserves the love - though she brushed the CVs, she's not going to be hitting anything else.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
WTNT63 KNHC 161158
TCUAT3
TROPICAL STORM KARL TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132010
700 AM CDT THU SEP 16 2010

...AIR FORCE AIRCRAFT FINDS KARL STRONGER...SPECIAL ADVISORY
FORTHCOMING...

RECENT DATA FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT TROPICAL STORM KARL HAS MAXIMUM WINDS OF NEAR
65 MPH...100 KM/HR...AND A MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 986 MB...
29.12 IN.

A SPECIAL ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED SHORTLY IN LIEU OF THE 700 AM
CDT...1200 UTC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.6N 92.1W
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM W OF CAMPECHE MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 285 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.26 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN

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Almost a complete eyewall with Karl.


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2977. CalTex
The visible satellite from an hour ago shows a very beautiful Igor.

I'd post a close-up, but CybrTeddy has the wider picture above.
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Karl has what... 40 or so hours left over water if the timing is correct? (A small note of comfort - the timing on Hermine, especially at first, was wayyyyyy off).
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
2975. scott39
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:

That looks to be ALMOST a NW direction to me??
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There's a military term for it...Awol I think.

Y'all have a good morning. Don't let the Karl's, Julia's, or Igor's bite. Got to go take an exam in a little while and need to do a little last minute cramming.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15828

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Quoting scott39:
Looks like SAL is coming back with a vengance off the African coast. Was julia the Caboose?


I wouldn't say so. At least not yet; a couple of nice-looking waves still to come. Getting closer, though.

CLICK FOR LARGER IMAGE

Tropical weather-related image
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2968. srada
Quoting DestinJeff:


Parliament.


Good morning, Srada. Thanks for getting me off to a good start. LOL

I notice that XTRP has actually shifted south. Odd, huh?


Good Morning Jeff..yes very odd on the xtrap
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2966. scott39
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Good morning Julia, my dear. Hope you slept well. Looks like your brother Karl's gonna be a hurricane again & Igor really churned up some deep seas yesterday.
You do know these are TCs--right?? Im seeing too much love here!!
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Correct. I think Karl's at 60-65 right now.


I think he might be a bit higher. He's not a hurricane just yet, but 65-70mph.

Quite remarkable considering he's just crossed land. I just hope for Mexico's sake that Karl doesn't think emulating his two elder siblings out in the Atlantic on the RI front is a good idea.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
2962. DeMango
Quoting apocalyps:
lets us all hope Igor does not cross Florida.
Experts think this is still possible.
KEEP SAFE


Where are those experts??
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2959. scott39
Quoting IKE:
Igor looks headed more to the NW or even NNW, for now.
Lets hope so for Bermudas sake!
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Quoting IKE:
Igor looks headed more to the NW or even NNW, for now.


I'd put it at 320-330 degrees right now. Defiantly starting to make that turn.
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Quoting Cotillion:
82mph flight level with rounding. Take 10% off that and you're left with 74mph.


Correct. I think Karl's at 60-65 right now.
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2955. IKE
Igor looks headed more to the NW or even NNW, for now.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
82mph flight level with rounding. Take 10% off that and you're left with 74mph.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting CybrTeddy:
This view just shows how large Igor is..


Man Igor is huge...Unreal. May even make Ike in the GOM look small.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15828
This view just shows how large Igor is..
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2951. scott39
For the last 6 hours Karl has been moving WNW at 296 degrees.
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Think Karl actually strengthened over the Yucatan..

SFMR
57 knots
(~ 65.5 mph)


Pressure
985.3 mb
(~ 29.10 inHg)

Flight level winds.
71 knots
(~ 81.6 mph)
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This really isn't looking good for Veracruz.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Karl:
985.3 mb
(~ 29.10 inHg)
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2947. scott39
Quoting surfmom:
fine by me
Me too, although were not out of the woods yet, according to the Western Atlantic forecast finale! Stayed tuned.
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2946. srada
O6z GFS has Igor going west at the conus but doing a hard right to come back at Bermuda..I think Levi analysis might be coming into play

Link
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Quoting scott39:
Looks like SAL is coming back with a vengance off the African coast. Was julia the Caboose?


Looks far enough north that it might not have a huge impact on anything off of Africa. Very little in the Central Atlantic.
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I have a question to whom ever wants to answer.with Igor and Julia the trouhs to there north ,they are influencing there track , I understand that.With Karl now in the BOC , with a strong front to its north ,why is that not pulling Karl north , is it because of the high over LA that is maybe blocking.If you dont ask you dont learn , thats why I am here , I want to learn.
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Quoting surfmom:


Way OVERHEAD for me : ), interesting to note even the Surf-fore cast site said to be "careful" -- for all the years I've read his posts -- he's NEVER said that...thinking wave height, strength & RIP

There are times when I have to be content looking at pictures and watching videos


When Earl passed by, it was an experts only event for sure. The normal spot to surf is the Washout, and the newbs usually go to the pier. Well during Earl, the pretty dang good ones were at the pier, and nothing but the best were at the Washout. I know just getting out had to be exhausting for them.
Member Since: August 17, 2005 Posts: 26 Comments: 15828
2942. srada
OOz Nogaps Run..it actually looks like Igor takes a SW direction..real irratic..

Link
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2941. scott39
I hope the last act of this season in the Western Atlantic, isnt like the Cape Verde has been!
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Quoting surfmom:


Way OVERHEAD for me : ), interesting to note even the Surf-forecast site said to be "careful" -- for all the years I've read his posts -- he's NEVER said that...thinking wave height, strength & RIP currents
oh yeah and Winds - I don't think these are going to be glassy beauties -- There are times when I have to be content looking at pictures and watching videos




hmmmm saturday..... hmmmm .... glassy beauties....hmmmm overhead.... sigh so far away 2 days :(
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2939. surfmom
Quoting scott39:
Looks like SAL is coming back with a vengance off the African coast. Was julia the Caboose?
fine by me
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Recon flight level winds for Karl.
66 knots
(~ 75.9 mph)
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2937. IKE
Quoting StormJunkie:


I would think so...Since they would most likely be getting entangled in the stronger troughs. Wilma-ish type deals. I'm no expert, but that just seems to be the most likely scenario for late season storms at this point. I'm not convinced that there will be a big enough gap between troughs, nor am I convinced that the Bermuda and Azores highs will ever bridge this season. Thus preventing any, except a very very southern storm from getting anywhere near the Conus from the Atl.


I agree with you. Time has just about run out on that anyway.

Likeliest lower 48 threats...from the western Caribbean and the southern GOM.

Need a couple of decent cold fronts to swing through here.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2936. surfmom
2920. 954FtLCane 7:24 AM EDT on September 16, 2010

Ohhh Dear - another NASTY PICTURE - you guys are better then caffiene this morning...*nervous giggle*
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.