Karl hits the Yucatan; two simultaneous Cat 4s in the Atlantic for 2nd time in history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:37 PM GMT on September 15, 2010

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The Atlantic hurricane season of 2010 kicked into high gear this morning, with the landfall of Tropical Storm Karl in Mexico, and the simultaneous presence of two Category 4 hurricanes in the Atlantic, Igor and Julia. Tropical Storm Karl's formation yesterday marked the fifth earliest date that an eleventh named storm of the season has formed. The only years more active this early in the season were 2005, 1995, 1936 and 1933. This morning's unexpected intensification of Hurricane Julia into a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds has set a new record--Julia is now the strongest hurricane on record so far east. When one considers that earlier this year, Hurricane Earl became the fourth strongest hurricane so far north, it appears that this year's record SSTs have significantly expanded the area over which major hurricanes can exist over the Atlantic. This morning is just the second time in recorded history that two simultaneous Category 4 or stronger storms have occurred in the Atlantic. The only other occurrence was on 06 UTC September 16, 1926, when the Great Miami Hurricane and Hurricane Four were both Category 4 storms for a six-hour period. The were also two years, 1999 and 1958, when we missed having two simultaneous Category 4 hurricanes by six hours. Julia's ascension to Category 4 status makes it the 4th Category 4 storm of the year. Only two other seasons have had as many as five Category 4 or stronger storms (2005 and 1999), so 2010 ranks in 3rd place in this statistic. This year is also the earliest a fourth Category 4 or stronger storm has formed (though the fourth Category 4 of 1999, Hurricane Gert, formed just 3 hours later on today's date in 1999.) We've also had four Cat 4+ storms in just twenty days, which beats the previous record for shortest time span for four Cat 4+ storms to appear. The previous record was 1999, 24 days (thanks to Phil Klozbach of CSU for this stat.)


Figure 1. A rare double feature: two simultaneous Category 4 hurricanes in the Atlantic, for only the second time in recorded history.

Karl
Tropical Storm Karl made landfall as a strong tropical storm with 65 mph winds and a central pressure of 991 mb at 8:45am EDT this morning on Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, just north of the Belize border. Karl took advantage of nearly ideal conditions for intensification, and in just fifteen hours intensified from a tropical disturbance to a strong tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Had Karl managed to get its act together just one day earlier, it could have been a major hurricane at landfall this morning. Fortunately, Karl has a relatively small area of strong winds--tropical storm force winds extend out just 45 miles from the center of the storm, and wind damage is not the main concern. Heavy rains are the main concern, and Belize radar shows heavy rain bands from Karl spreading ashore over northern Belize near the border with Mexico. Cancun radar shows that heavy rains are relatively limited, though, near the tourist havens of Cancun and Cozumel.


Figure 2. Radar image of Karl at landfall this morning near the northern Belize/Mexican border. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.

Forecast for Karl
Karl will traverse the Yucatan Peninsula today and emerge into the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche Thursday morning as a much weakened tropical storm, with perhaps 40 - 45 mph top winds. Once in the Gulf, conditions for intensification are ideal, with wind shear is expected to be low, 5 - 10 knots, SSTs will be warm, 29°C - 30°C, and the atmosphere very moist. These conditions, combined with the topography of the surrounding coast which tends to enhance counter-clockwise flow, should allow Karl to intensify into a strong tropical storm or a Category 1 hurricane before making landfall between Tampico and Vercruz, Mexico on Saturday morning. However, since Karl is a small storm, it is possible that passage over the Yucatan will disrupt the storm enough so that it will be much weaker. The ridge of high pressure steering Karl westwards is quite strong, and it is very unlikely that the storm will turn northwest and hit Texas. NHC is giving Brownsville, Texas, an 10% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph.

Igor
Hurricane Igor put on a burst of intensification last night to put it at its strongest yet, a top-end Category 4 hurricane with 155 mph winds. Igor has weakened slightly this morning, but remains a formidable presence in the Central Atlantic with its 145 mph winds. Igor continues to show the classic appearance of a major hurricane on satellite imagery, with a well-formed eye, symmetrical cloud pattern, plenty of low-level spiral bands, and solid upper-level outflow on all sides.


Figure 3. Hurricane Igor as captured at 18 UTC Tuesday September 14, 2010, from the International Space Station. Image credit: Douglas Wheelock, NASA.

Intensity forecast for Igor
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is expected to remain low for the next 2 - 3 days. Waters are warm, 29°C, and will remain 29°C for the next 2 - 3 days. Igor is well armored against any intrusions of dry air for at least the next three days. These conditions should allow Igor to remain at major hurricane status for the next three days. The hurricane will probably undergo one of the usual eyewall replacement cycles intense hurricanes commonly have, where the eyewall collapses and a new eyewall forms from an outer spiral band. This will weaken the hurricane by 10 - 20 mph when it occurs, and may be responsible for the 10 mph weakening Igor experienced early this morning. Igor may regain its lost intensity over the next 36 hours. By Saturday morning, 36 hours before the core of Igor is expected to pass Bermuda's latitude, the trough of low pressure steering Igor northwestwards should bring moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots to the storm, weakening it. The SHIPS models predicts shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, during the final 24 hours of the storm's approach to Bermuda. Igor will also be tracking over cooler 28°C waters during this period, and substantial weakening by perhaps 20 - 30 mph can be expected. Igor will still probably be at least a Category 2 hurricane on its closest pass by Bermuda on Sunday. NHC is giving Bermuda a 13% chance of experiencing hurricane force winds from Igor, but this probability is likely too low. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 or 2 hurricane conditions for the island on Sunday, with 20 - 25 foot waves in the offshore waters.

Track forecast for Igor
The track forecast for Igor remains unchanged. Igor has made its long-anticipated turn to the west-northwest, in response to the steering influence of a broad trough of low pressure moving across the Western Atlantic. This trough will steer Igor several hundred miles to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles, and high waves should be the only impact of Igor on the islands. Igor appears likely to be a threat to Bermuda, and that island can expect tropical storm force winds as early as Saturday. Igor will be moving at about 12 - 15 mph as it approaches Bermuda. Tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph will probably extend out about 250 miles to the north of Igor on Saturday, so Bermuda can expect 18 hours of tropical storm force winds before the core of Igor makes its closest pass. In all, Bermuda is likely to experience a very long pounding of 24 - 36 hours with winds in excess of tropical storm force.

The models have been in substantial agreement over multiple runs that Igor will miss the U.S. East Coast, and the danger to the U.S. will probably only come in the form of high waves. Large swells from Igor have arrived in the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and will spread westwards over the next few days, reaching the U.S. East Coast on Friday. By Saturday, much of the East Coast from northern Florida to Cape Cod Massachusetts can expect waves of 3 - 4 meters (10 - 13 feet), causing dangerous rip currents and significant beach erosion. These waves will continue through Sunday then gradually die down. The latest NOAA marine forecast for Cape Hatteras, North Carolina calls for 8 - 10 foot waves on Saturday, and 9 - 12 foot waves on Sunday.

Igor may pass very close to Newfoundland, Canada, but it is too early too assess the likelihood of this happening.

Julia
Hurricane Julia put on a remarkable and unexpected burst of intensification this morning to become the season's fourth Category 4 storm. Julia's 135 mph winds make it the strongest hurricane on record so far east; the previous record was held by the eighth storm of 1926 which was only a 120 mph Category 3 hurricane at Julia's current longitude. Julia's intensification was a surprise, since SSTs in the region are about 27.5°C, which is just 1°C above the threshold needed to sustain a Category 1 hurricane. Julia is headed northwest, out to sea, and it is unlikely that this storm will trouble any land areas. SSTs will steadily cool to 26.5°C today, and further intensification today is unlikely. Shear will be moderate, 10 - 20 knots, over Julia during the next two days, then rise sharply to 30 knots 3 - 5 days from now, as Julia moves within 1000 miles of Igor and begins to experience strong northwesterly winds from her big brother's upper level outflow. This should substantially weaken Julia.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and ECMWF models develop a new tropical depression a few hundred miles off the coast of Africa 3 - 6 days from now. The GFS also develops a tropical depression in the eastern Caribbean 6 - 7 days from now.

Portlight's 2-year anniversary
On September 14, 2008, the devastation wrought by Hurricane Ike on Texas and Louisiana moved members of the wunderground community to put into action their own impromptu relief effort. From this humble beginning has grown a disaster-relief charity I have been proud to support--Portlight.org. We've been blessed this hurricane season with relatively few landfalling storms, so Portlight's new disaster relief trailer (Figure 4), financed with a $21,500 grant from the Christopher and Dana Reeve Foundation, has yet to be deployed. With five weeks of peak hurricane season still to come, the new trailer may yet get a call to action. The mobile kitchen in the trailer will be able to feed several hundred people per day, and the trailer is equipped with portable ramps to help with shelter accessibility, as well as durable medical equipment to facilitate mobility and independence for survivors. The trailer is mobile, and Portlight is willing to load it up and fly it to Bermuda, if Igor ends up making a mess there!

The lack of landfalling storms has allowed Portlight to continue to concentrate their efforts on Haiti, where their assistance has been a tremendous boost for those most in need, the disabled. Portlight is working on constructing steel shelters out of shipping containers for homeless Haitians, as detailed in the Haitian Relief Recap blog post. Please visit the Portlight.org web site or the Portlight blog to learn more and donate. A few other items of note:

Portlight has been able to facilitate providing assistance to people with disabilities in Pakistan, where the worst natural disaster in their history has left 4 million homeless. While not directly involved in delivering relief, Portlight has been able to connect local Disabled People's Organizations with important sources of food, water, filtration systems, and medical equipment.

ABC News4 in Charleston broadcast a story about the Portlight relief trailer, and Portlight has also been featured on the Pacifica Radio Network.

Portlight launched a quarterly newsletter, The Portlight View, which can be seen on the newly redesigned website.


Figure 4. The new Portlight disaster relief trailer, funded by their $21,500 grant from the Christopher and Dana Reeve foundation.

I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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it sure would be nice to have a minimal hurricane hit here in se fla to keep the temps down...it's too hot still!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


Agree.
I went through Eloise, Erin, Opal, and Ivan. No they are not fun at all.
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1381. scott39
Quoting xcool:
OCTOBER 01
No No--thats my sons B-Day-- Katrina hit on mine!
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Quoting centex:

Still looks like a TS.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1378. xcool
THE TROPICS ARE VERY ACTIVE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS THE EAST
CNTRL ATLC SUGGESTS ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE OVR THE
WEEKEND OR EARLY NEXT WEEK. SVRL AREAS OF STRONG CONVECTION ARE
EVIDENT EXTENDING FROM NEAR 45W TO THE W AFRICAN COASTLINE ALONG
OR JUST SOUTH OF 10N. OP AND ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE CONTINUE TO SUGGEST
ADDITIONAL TC DEVELOPMENT WITH ONE DISTURBANCE NEAR 45W AND
ANOTHER ONE EAST OF 20W. GFS AND SVRL GFES MEMBERS ARE VERY
BULLISH WITH THIS DISTURBANCE INDICATING A TC MOVING SOUTH OF PR
AROUND THE 23RD. GFES ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE SHOWS SIG TIMING
DIFFERENCES BUT SOME SUGGEST AT LEAST SOME WEAK DEVELOPMENT. IT IS
SEPT AND CONDITIONS ACROSS THE ATLC LOOK VERY FAVORABLE SO AM
EXPECTING SOMETHING TO DEVELOP. MODEL GUIDANCE HAS ALSO HAD A SLOW
BIAS WITH TROPICAL CYCLONES THIS YEAR SO ANTICIPATING WEATHER
ASSOCIATED TO THESE DISTURBANCES A DAY OR TWO THAN EARLIER
SUGGESTED BY MODELS. IN SUMMARY...SIG AMT UNCERTAINTY SEEN EARLY
NEXT WEEK ESPECIALLY REGARDING TIMING BUT ANTICIPATING A WETTER
AND MORE UNSETTLED PERIOD. MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS LIKE THE AEW
NEAR THE AFRICAN COASTLINE BUT THIS SYSTEM IS AT LEAST EIGHT DAYS
FROM REACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES IF IT WERE TO REACH THIS FAR
WEST.

That San Juan discussion
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting WatchingThisOne:


384 hours out ... what's that in weeks?
16 days
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1375. bird72
Igor is really the mother of all hurricanes, is really a monster. Is very impressive the sat image, I hope he don't get near Bermuda, is this monster strike any part of the Atlantic is going to be devastating. With the amplitude this thing have, is going to take more than 24h before it pass from any point if make landfall.
Member Since: August 5, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 389
1374. xcool
OCTOBER 01
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1373. angiest
Quoting WatchingThisOne:


384 hours out ... what's that in weeks?


Don't watch the track, just that it forms...
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
1371. centex
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3260
1369. scott39
People that havent SUFFERED from a hurricane, want one to get out of work, school, and to party! They like the thought of all thier responsibilities to go away for awhile. I manage restaurants and when a tropical storm or hurricane gets in the GOM, the first question is when are we going to close? This is when its 500 miles away and still not sure where its going to go. My kids will start asking 3 days before its going to hit, when can the stay out of school? People on here aint the only ones who "want" a hurricane!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting OctoberToRemember:


Actually, I have, I went through Wilma and Kat in 05, no joke, gentlemen. IDK, I just love the adrenaline rush that they bring.
you must be in...naples? i would have traded both of those experiences, and perhaps added a jeanne, for my tango with Charley...and believe me, I used to feel much like yourself about the 'rush' of it all before that. . .
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Quoting xcool:


HEAD N TO Gulf coast

JUST LIKE 1995 Opal


384 hours out ... what's that in weeks?
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Igor and eyewall replacement:

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Good Evening.
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1356. centex
The classic TC shape, just like I draw them.
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3260
Quoting btwntx08:
actually from 372 to 384 slighty w barely


The flow ahead of the trough is SW to NE which would undoubtedly shunt it NE. Just entertainment this far out though.
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probably already answered, but whats wrong with the satellites??
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Quoting OctoberToRemember:


Who, me? Of course I do! Why deny it? I'll scream out loud to the 4 winds of the universe, if need me. You only live once, Ike. Yes, this is my very liberal mindset speaking here, BTW. Thanks for understanding, BTW. I appreciate that, man. I'll say it again, I want a hurricane to hit SF before the season comes to a close. Did I not make my mind clear yet?



JFV....you have serious issues......
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1349. xcool
HEY Ivanhater
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1347. FLDART1
Evening everybody...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting immaturehurjunkie:
This may have been discussed already but I was wondering if Julia and Igor were cat 4's for longer than 6 hours together?


They were both Cat 4s at the 5 AM and 11 AM TWOs; for historical purposes, then, they'll be listed as co-fours for 12 hours (as, obviously, each TWO covers six hours).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1345. xcool
PGI89T: A potential 'future pouch' or area of interest is
currently located near 10N, 38W. An 1139 UTC ASCAT pass
highlights a weak, elongated ground-relative surface circulation
along 10 N between 35-40 W, albeit with some ambiguity relating
to the very light wind speeds in the region (colored vectors in
image 6). This elongated circulation has a bit of a monsoon
trough-like appearance and is located along an east-west axis
where the northwesterly flow around the southwestern periphery
of Hurricane Julia meets south-southwesterly cross-equatorial
flow. Collocated with this elongated circulation are modest
lower tropospheric convergence (blue contours) and lower
tropospheric vorticity (orange contours) as analyzed by the
CIMSS satellite-derived products (image 7). Disorganized
convection (image 6) associated with this feature is found
primarily equatorward of the potential circulation owing to
20-30 kt of northeasterly vertical wind shear (yellow contours
and white streamlines in image 6) on the southeastern periphery
of the upper tropospheric anticyclone associated with Hurricane
Igor. This northeasterly vertical wind shear should abate as
Igor recurves and accelerates northward into the middle
latitudes over the coming days.


UPDATE
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting OctoberToRemember:


Hiya, Met! What might that signify, BTW?


Peek-a-boo! "!"

Gotta go with St. Simon on this one. "!"
Quoting OctoberToRemember:


Hiya, Met! What might that signify, BTW?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


Maybe you'll get splattered on the next run.

GFS spares the northern GOM on the latest run.


Actually, on the 18z run the Northern Gulf is under the gun with a trough picking it up which would shunt it North and east..similar to Opal

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1340. IKE
Quoting islandeye:
I see. Clearly, he's never been through a good one then...they sound much more fun before. The after, not so much...


Agree.
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1339. Vero1
What is going to be up with these two new ones?

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1338. xcool


MOVED N
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting IKE:


With him? He wants a major cane to hit him. At least he's honest about it.
I see. Clearly, he's never been through a good one then...they sound much more fun before. The after, not so much...
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Quoting stillwaiting:
....their were local reports that a bee-hive got knocked off a tree branch.......utter devistation,lol....i've broke wind that produced higher winds than we had here in swfl
yea here in La. we had to keep the kids inside because she came in naked..
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.