Karl hits the Yucatan; two simultaneous Cat 4s in the Atlantic for 2nd time in history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:37 PM GMT on September 15, 2010

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The Atlantic hurricane season of 2010 kicked into high gear this morning, with the landfall of Tropical Storm Karl in Mexico, and the simultaneous presence of two Category 4 hurricanes in the Atlantic, Igor and Julia. Tropical Storm Karl's formation yesterday marked the fifth earliest date that an eleventh named storm of the season has formed. The only years more active this early in the season were 2005, 1995, 1936 and 1933. This morning's unexpected intensification of Hurricane Julia into a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds has set a new record--Julia is now the strongest hurricane on record so far east. When one considers that earlier this year, Hurricane Earl became the fourth strongest hurricane so far north, it appears that this year's record SSTs have significantly expanded the area over which major hurricanes can exist over the Atlantic. This morning is just the second time in recorded history that two simultaneous Category 4 or stronger storms have occurred in the Atlantic. The only other occurrence was on 06 UTC September 16, 1926, when the Great Miami Hurricane and Hurricane Four were both Category 4 storms for a six-hour period. The were also two years, 1999 and 1958, when we missed having two simultaneous Category 4 hurricanes by six hours. Julia's ascension to Category 4 status makes it the 4th Category 4 storm of the year. Only two other seasons have had as many as five Category 4 or stronger storms (2005 and 1999), so 2010 ranks in 3rd place in this statistic. This year is also the earliest a fourth Category 4 or stronger storm has formed (though the fourth Category 4 of 1999, Hurricane Gert, formed just 3 hours later on today's date in 1999.) We've also had four Cat 4+ storms in just twenty days, which beats the previous record for shortest time span for four Cat 4+ storms to appear. The previous record was 1999, 24 days (thanks to Phil Klozbach of CSU for this stat.)


Figure 1. A rare double feature: two simultaneous Category 4 hurricanes in the Atlantic, for only the second time in recorded history.

Karl
Tropical Storm Karl made landfall as a strong tropical storm with 65 mph winds and a central pressure of 991 mb at 8:45am EDT this morning on Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, just north of the Belize border. Karl took advantage of nearly ideal conditions for intensification, and in just fifteen hours intensified from a tropical disturbance to a strong tropical storm with 65 mph winds. Had Karl managed to get its act together just one day earlier, it could have been a major hurricane at landfall this morning. Fortunately, Karl has a relatively small area of strong winds--tropical storm force winds extend out just 45 miles from the center of the storm, and wind damage is not the main concern. Heavy rains are the main concern, and Belize radar shows heavy rain bands from Karl spreading ashore over northern Belize near the border with Mexico. Cancun radar shows that heavy rains are relatively limited, though, near the tourist havens of Cancun and Cozumel.


Figure 2. Radar image of Karl at landfall this morning near the northern Belize/Mexican border. Image credit: Belize National Meteorological Service.

Forecast for Karl
Karl will traverse the Yucatan Peninsula today and emerge into the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche Thursday morning as a much weakened tropical storm, with perhaps 40 - 45 mph top winds. Once in the Gulf, conditions for intensification are ideal, with wind shear is expected to be low, 5 - 10 knots, SSTs will be warm, 29°C - 30°C, and the atmosphere very moist. These conditions, combined with the topography of the surrounding coast which tends to enhance counter-clockwise flow, should allow Karl to intensify into a strong tropical storm or a Category 1 hurricane before making landfall between Tampico and Vercruz, Mexico on Saturday morning. However, since Karl is a small storm, it is possible that passage over the Yucatan will disrupt the storm enough so that it will be much weaker. The ridge of high pressure steering Karl westwards is quite strong, and it is very unlikely that the storm will turn northwest and hit Texas. NHC is giving Brownsville, Texas, an 10% chance of receiving tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph.

Igor
Hurricane Igor put on a burst of intensification last night to put it at its strongest yet, a top-end Category 4 hurricane with 155 mph winds. Igor has weakened slightly this morning, but remains a formidable presence in the Central Atlantic with its 145 mph winds. Igor continues to show the classic appearance of a major hurricane on satellite imagery, with a well-formed eye, symmetrical cloud pattern, plenty of low-level spiral bands, and solid upper-level outflow on all sides.


Figure 3. Hurricane Igor as captured at 18 UTC Tuesday September 14, 2010, from the International Space Station. Image credit: Douglas Wheelock, NASA.

Intensity forecast for Igor
Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is expected to remain low for the next 2 - 3 days. Waters are warm, 29°C, and will remain 29°C for the next 2 - 3 days. Igor is well armored against any intrusions of dry air for at least the next three days. These conditions should allow Igor to remain at major hurricane status for the next three days. The hurricane will probably undergo one of the usual eyewall replacement cycles intense hurricanes commonly have, where the eyewall collapses and a new eyewall forms from an outer spiral band. This will weaken the hurricane by 10 - 20 mph when it occurs, and may be responsible for the 10 mph weakening Igor experienced early this morning. Igor may regain its lost intensity over the next 36 hours. By Saturday morning, 36 hours before the core of Igor is expected to pass Bermuda's latitude, the trough of low pressure steering Igor northwestwards should bring moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots to the storm, weakening it. The SHIPS models predicts shear will rise to the high range, 20 - 30 knots, during the final 24 hours of the storm's approach to Bermuda. Igor will also be tracking over cooler 28°C waters during this period, and substantial weakening by perhaps 20 - 30 mph can be expected. Igor will still probably be at least a Category 2 hurricane on its closest pass by Bermuda on Sunday. NHC is giving Bermuda a 13% chance of experiencing hurricane force winds from Igor, but this probability is likely too low. The Bermuda Weather Service is calling for Category 1 or 2 hurricane conditions for the island on Sunday, with 20 - 25 foot waves in the offshore waters.

Track forecast for Igor
The track forecast for Igor remains unchanged. Igor has made its long-anticipated turn to the west-northwest, in response to the steering influence of a broad trough of low pressure moving across the Western Atlantic. This trough will steer Igor several hundred miles to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles, and high waves should be the only impact of Igor on the islands. Igor appears likely to be a threat to Bermuda, and that island can expect tropical storm force winds as early as Saturday. Igor will be moving at about 12 - 15 mph as it approaches Bermuda. Tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph will probably extend out about 250 miles to the north of Igor on Saturday, so Bermuda can expect 18 hours of tropical storm force winds before the core of Igor makes its closest pass. In all, Bermuda is likely to experience a very long pounding of 24 - 36 hours with winds in excess of tropical storm force.

The models have been in substantial agreement over multiple runs that Igor will miss the U.S. East Coast, and the danger to the U.S. will probably only come in the form of high waves. Large swells from Igor have arrived in the Northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and will spread westwards over the next few days, reaching the U.S. East Coast on Friday. By Saturday, much of the East Coast from northern Florida to Cape Cod Massachusetts can expect waves of 3 - 4 meters (10 - 13 feet), causing dangerous rip currents and significant beach erosion. These waves will continue through Sunday then gradually die down. The latest NOAA marine forecast for Cape Hatteras, North Carolina calls for 8 - 10 foot waves on Saturday, and 9 - 12 foot waves on Sunday.

Igor may pass very close to Newfoundland, Canada, but it is too early too assess the likelihood of this happening.

Julia
Hurricane Julia put on a remarkable and unexpected burst of intensification this morning to become the season's fourth Category 4 storm. Julia's 135 mph winds make it the strongest hurricane on record so far east; the previous record was held by the eighth storm of 1926 which was only a 120 mph Category 3 hurricane at Julia's current longitude. Julia's intensification was a surprise, since SSTs in the region are about 27.5°C, which is just 1°C above the threshold needed to sustain a Category 1 hurricane. Julia is headed northwest, out to sea, and it is unlikely that this storm will trouble any land areas. SSTs will steadily cool to 26.5°C today, and further intensification today is unlikely. Shear will be moderate, 10 - 20 knots, over Julia during the next two days, then rise sharply to 30 knots 3 - 5 days from now, as Julia moves within 1000 miles of Igor and begins to experience strong northwesterly winds from her big brother's upper level outflow. This should substantially weaken Julia.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS and ECMWF models develop a new tropical depression a few hundred miles off the coast of Africa 3 - 6 days from now. The GFS also develops a tropical depression in the eastern Caribbean 6 - 7 days from now.

Portlight's 2-year anniversary
On September 14, 2008, the devastation wrought by Hurricane Ike on Texas and Louisiana moved members of the wunderground community to put into action their own impromptu relief effort. From this humble beginning has grown a disaster-relief charity I have been proud to support--Portlight.org. We've been blessed this hurricane season with relatively few landfalling storms, so Portlight's new disaster relief trailer (Figure 4), financed with a $21,500 grant from the Christopher and Dana Reeve Foundation, has yet to be deployed. With five weeks of peak hurricane season still to come, the new trailer may yet get a call to action. The mobile kitchen in the trailer will be able to feed several hundred people per day, and the trailer is equipped with portable ramps to help with shelter accessibility, as well as durable medical equipment to facilitate mobility and independence for survivors. The trailer is mobile, and Portlight is willing to load it up and fly it to Bermuda, if Igor ends up making a mess there!

The lack of landfalling storms has allowed Portlight to continue to concentrate their efforts on Haiti, where their assistance has been a tremendous boost for those most in need, the disabled. Portlight is working on constructing steel shelters out of shipping containers for homeless Haitians, as detailed in the Haitian Relief Recap blog post. Please visit the Portlight.org web site or the Portlight blog to learn more and donate. A few other items of note:

Portlight has been able to facilitate providing assistance to people with disabilities in Pakistan, where the worst natural disaster in their history has left 4 million homeless. While not directly involved in delivering relief, Portlight has been able to connect local Disabled People's Organizations with important sources of food, water, filtration systems, and medical equipment.

ABC News4 in Charleston broadcast a story about the Portlight relief trailer, and Portlight has also been featured on the Pacifica Radio Network.

Portlight launched a quarterly newsletter, The Portlight View, which can be seen on the newly redesigned website.


Figure 4. The new Portlight disaster relief trailer, funded by their $21,500 grant from the Christopher and Dana Reeve foundation.

I'll have an update Thursday morning.

Jeff Masters

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2585. pcola57
Great and thanks for the link cat5hurricaine!!
Appreciate it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting mcmurray02:
Coming out of my lurking zone, I've been doing some play-by-play after reading some of the recent comments from, and associated with StormW and his possible departure.

Looks like there was some discussion about Igor pumping the ridge. Then some "heated" comments, followed by some "Bad Community Standards" comments, followed by.. "I might be leaving, depends on Admin."

Well, I hope you get to stay. I think its safe to say, most of us respect you, and look forward to your analysis. (Even if all we do is lurk.) I can't even begin to list all of the things that I've learned here thanks to StormW.


Same here. Storm is like a teacher but he gives no homework, and he's been very willing to show others. This ego that others speak of, I don't see any, but i'll just stop there before I get angry at their blindness.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2582. leo305
Quoting Bordonaro:

I was afraid to say that, he may become a CAT 3.


yep, and he's been re strengthening as he comes off the coast
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
The development of Karl's eye (if I'm seeing that correctly) over land should certainly add to the academic study of storm decay. This is what keeps the "show" interesting. I hope all keep safe.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
hey storm don't go anywhere who else except one or two would I listen to.don't leave, people like you makes this site what it is,a place where people like me can find out info on storms and etc.
I vote to keep you around for how ever long you can keep punching those old key pads.Thanks for your hard work.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting leo305:


difference is, KARL is far more organized than alex was coming off the yucatan, and going to go over warmer waters/more moist conditions.

Conditions are favorable for rapid intensification, it has a small tight core, so it should develop quickly, would not suprise me if it hits Major hurricane strength before it hits mexico.

I was afraid to say that, he may become a CAT 3.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting dracko19:
Um....holy crikey!!!

Karl is up to 5.3!!! That's 97 knots!! He's almost a major hurricane already according to ADT!! Geezus!! We may have a situation occuring here...

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 SEP 2010 Time : 031500 UTC
Lat : 19:24:53 N Lon : 90:44:37 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 965.5mb/ 97.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.3 5.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.5mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -43.4C Cloud Region Temp : -66.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF



Yeah, the NHC mentioned that Karl has kept remarkable structure on satellite through its crossing of the Yucatan. They also said how there wasn't many surface observations to be had so the strength of the surface circulation isn't well sampled/known.

The cloud/mid-level structure should allow it to restrengthen again tomorrow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2576. Ldog74
Quoting Bordonaro:

Mark my words, Karl is going to pull an Alex!!


What I fear is that the winds may not lag behind with Karl like they did with Alex. Karl is much smaller core-wise, IMO.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2575. 7544
wait are those maps showing the gap is closing and igor is going further west tia
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting btwntx08:
txhurricane to keep eye out at the end of this end they very well be a storm in the gom by then so right now the gfs has been shifting tracks so it anywhere from tx to fl so thats why everyone on the gom needs to watch this


ok, when is that suppose to be?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Rarely do you see a Tropical System hold its strength or even get stronger over land, but it does happen. I remember a couple of storms going over the Florida Glades and holding their own a couple years ago. It appears Karl has GROWN STRONGER over the Yucatan. Amazing. It has an eye and appears to be a strong CAT 2 hurricane already based on Sattelite estimates. Time for an update from NHC.

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When is Igor suppose to make that NW turn? if not,Bermuda isn't the only ones that need to be scrambling.jmo
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2568. Ldog74
Quoting dracko19:


Seriously, does anyone know how accurate the models are about predicting new hurricanes to pop up out of thin air 2 weeks in advance??


Not very...if its only on one run. However, with the system I think you're talking about (GOM either landfalling in TX or FL), there has been a lot of consistency from run to run, with regard to the formation of the cyclone. Still, we're talking about something outside of the 5 day forecast, and so nothing is imminent by any means.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2567. leo305
Quoting Bordonaro:

Mark my words, Karl is going to pull an Alex!!


difference is, KARL is far more organized than alex was coming off the yucatan, and going to go over warmer waters/more moist conditions.

Conditions are favorable for rapid intensification, it has a small tight core, so it should develop quickly, would not suprise me if it hits Major hurricane strength before it hits mexico.
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
Quoting JLPR2:
Jeez, it's practically not moving at all.


Satellite blackout from 1215AM EDT to about 3PM EDT!! He is moving, however the satellite is not updating!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
No sleepy time for Karl tonight...

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting dracko19:
Um....holy crikey!!!

Karl is up to 5.3!!! That's 97 knots!! He's almost a major hurricane already according to ADT!! Geezus!! We may have a situation occuring here...

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 SEP 2010 Time : 031500 UTC
Lat : 19:24:53 N Lon : 90:44:37 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 965.5mb/ 97.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.3 5.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.5mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -43.4C Cloud Region Temp : -66.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF


Mark my words, Karl is going to pull an Alex!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2562. JLPR2
Quoting dracko19:
Um....holy crikey!!!

Karl is up to 5.3!!! That's 97 knots!! He's almost a major hurricane already according to ADT!! Geezus!! We may have a situation occuring here...

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 SEP 2010 Time : 031500 UTC
Lat : 19:24:53 N Lon : 90:44:37 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 965.5mb/ 97.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.3 5.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.5mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -43.4C Cloud Region Temp : -66.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF



That says eye, but I dont see an eye?

O.o
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
2560. leo305
Quoting dracko19:
Um....holy crikey!!!

Karl is up to 5.3!!! That's 97 knots!! He's almost a major hurricane already according to ADT!! Geezus!! We may have a situation occuring here...

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 SEP 2010 Time : 031500 UTC
Lat : 19:24:53 N Lon : 90:44:37 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 965.5mb/ 97.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.3 5.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.5mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -43.4C Cloud Region Temp : -66.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF



it has a tight core, it can ramp up real quick once it gets over warm water
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
Still jogging westward isnt it?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Errors in models can be found at:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/verification/

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2556. JLPR2
Jeez, it's practically not moving at all.

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Um....holy crikey!!!

Karl is up to 5.3!!! That's 97 knots!! He's almost a major hurricane already according to ADT!! Geezus!! We may have a situation occuring here...

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 16 SEP 2010 Time : 031500 UTC
Lat : 19:24:53 N Lon : 90:44:37 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.3 / 965.5mb/ 97.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.3 5.3 5.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.5mb

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -43.4C Cloud Region Temp : -66.2C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2554. flsky
Quoting StormJunkie:


This is how you treat the hand that feeds you? And you wonder why I have little tolerance for it.

I apologize to all for the off topic. He's knows his weather, but I just can't see past the ego after four years of watching it.

It is time for me to go to bed. I leave you with this beast for the night.



Good night all.

+
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting btwntx08:
tx to fl


tx to fl what?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2552. 7544
gem agrees with the gfs fla bound

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
gee people leaving. thats not good. people are crazy. i might as well leave too since the reliable intelligent posters are leaving or dont post much anymore even with 3 systems at once going on. :(
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting xcool:
so anyfrom la to fl look out by gfs


Seriously, does anyone know how accurate the models are about predicting new hurricanes to pop up out of thin air 2 weeks in advance??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting gatorojo:

Yep, have been lurking here for years. Between StormW, Dr. Masters, Levi and the NHC one can't go wrong. Everybody else is entertainment, which isn't saying there aren't other good forecasters here.
Thanks for appreciating the entertainment factor. I'm not one to post models or sat. pics. I feel there are many others more qualified to do so. I try to help keep things in perspective, as it were. I sometimes fail, but my intentions are good.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


Lets just say I may get banned. But regardless...if I want to visit the zoo, I have one close by locally.



I like reading your blog and you do add a lot to these forums. I hope you do stay.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2543. Gearsts
Quoting StormW:
Jedkins, you have mail
StormW i dont post here much but i always follow you'r forecast every morning.Sad to see you leave and sorry for my inglish im puerto rican.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Some info. about Bermuda: Highest elevation: 249 feet.



Topography

Bermuda consists of about 138 islands and islets, with all the major islands aligned on a hook-shaped but roughly east-west axis and connected together by road bridges. Despite this complexity, Bermudans usually refer to Bermuda as "the island". In terms of terrain, the islands are comprised of low hills separated by fertile depressions, and interspersed with a complex set of waterways.

Location Atlantic Ocean
Coordinates 32°18′N 64°47′W / 32.3°N 64.783°W / 32.3; -64.783
Archipelago Bermuda
Total islands 138
Area 53.3 km2 (20.58 sq mi)
Coastline 103 km (64 mi)
Highest elevation 76 m (249 ft)
Highest point Town Hill
Largest city Hamilton (pop. 1,500)
Population 66,163 (as of 2007)
Ethnic groups West African, British, Portuguese
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2540. xcool
so anyfrom la to fl look out by gfs
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Quoting xcool:


Seems 00z and 12z like the FL route.
Member Since: July 7, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5417
2538. Seawall
Bermuda has Parishes.. Louisiana and Bermuda have something in common.. parish based government instead of counties....
Take care, Bermuda; everyone stay safe and hunker down.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurricanejunky:
According to Xtrap, Igor wanting to take his talents to South Beach...LOL


Lol. Hopefully he doesn't have an All Star team waiting for him there to win the title...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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