92L still a threat to develop; Igor a hurricane; TD 12 forming near Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:18 PM GMT on September 12, 2010

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Tropical disturbance (92L) over the Central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of the Dominican Republic, remains a threat to develop into a tropical depression. Satellite loops this morning show 92L may be starting to form a surface circulation, and an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate 92L this afternoon to see if a tropical depression is forming.

The storm has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorm with limited low-level spiral banding and upper-level outflow, thanks to an infusion of dry air last night that disrupted the storm. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico shows that heavy rains are affecting that island, but there is no rotation to the radar echoes evident. Wind shear over 92L is low, 5 - 10 knots. The waters beneath are hot, 29.5°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies to the north and west of 92L, and this dry air could interfere with development at times over the next few days.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 92L.

Track forecast for 92L
The disturbance is moving west to west-northwest at 15 mph, and steering currents favor a continuation of this motion for the next three days. Model support for development is scattered. The GFS and NOGAPS models do not develop 92L. The GFDL and ECMWF models predict development, with a track taking 92L into Belize or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. On this track, the southern Dominican Republic can expect heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches today through Monday morning; southern Haiti can expect similar rains tonight through Monday night, and Jamaica and the Cayman Islands can expect heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches Monday and Tuesday. Eastern Cuba can expect rains in the 2 - 4 inch range. Once 92L crosses the Yucatan, the ridge of high pressure steering it is expected to remain in place, forcing 92L to a second landfall in Mexico south of the Texas border.

Intensity forecast for 92L
NHC is putting the odds of 92L developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday at 50%; I'd put them higher, at 70%. However, time is running out for 92L to become a hurricane before hitting the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. Given the current disorganized state of 92L, it would be difficult for it to intensify quickly enough to become a hurricane by then. The storm may also suffer another of its mysterious evening collapses, where it loses most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. However, the SHIPS model predicts wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, through the period, and water temperatures are certainly warm enough to support development. The main detriment to intensification is likely to be dry air, and 92L could wrap in some of the dry air to its northwest at times, slowing down development. There are a number of research flights being made into 92L this afternoon that should help long-term efforts to make better predictions in the future on whether or not disturbances like this will develop or not.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Igor.

Igor
Hurricane Igor appears destined to become a large and powerful major hurricane over the Central Atlantic in the days to come. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is expected to drop below 5 knots for the next five days. Waters are warm, 28°C, and will warm to 29°C by Wednesday. Igor has moistened its environment enough to keep the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) at bay. Igor is undergoing a period of rapid intensification today, and will probably be a Category 3 or 4 hurricane by Monday.

The track forecast for Igor remains unchanged. Igor will move west under the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure for the next 2 - 3 days, then turn more to the west-northwest then northwest in response to the steering influence of a broad trough of low pressure moving across the Western Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. This should allow Igor to pass several hundred miles to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. In the longer range, Igor may be a threat to Bermuda, and does have a small chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast or Canada. Climatology shows that about 15% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at Igor's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are about 10% for Bermuda and 10% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the period 5 - 12 days from now from the ECMWF and GFS models shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without affecting any land areas. Recent runs of the ECMWF model indicate that these troughs may not be as intense as previously thought, so it is possible Igor has a higher chance than usual to hit land than climatology suggests. One wild card may be the possible development of TD 12 behind Igor. If TD 12 develops into a hurricane, and moves close to Igor, as some of the models are suggesting, the two hurricanes could rotate around a common center, forcing Igor more towards the coast of the U.S. The long term fate of Igor is difficult to predict at this point.

Tropical Depression Twelve forms
Tropical Depression Twelve formed between the Cape Verdes Islands and coast of Africa this morning, and is already affecting the Cape Verdes with winds near tropical storm strength; sustained winds of 35 mph were recorded in the northwest Cape Verdes this morning. You can follow the progress of TD 12 through the Cape Verdes today using our wundermap.

Next post
I'll have a new post Monday morning, and perhaps late this afternoon if events warrant.

Jeff Masters

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Miami I won't be surprised if afterwards there are more than just this system that are reclassified as category 5 storms.
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Quoting Drakoen:
Igor probably a Category 4 hurricane right now.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 SEP 2010 Time : 151500 UTC
Lat : 17:39:04 N Lon : 45:23:32 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 952.4mb/112.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.2 6.2


He's going nuts!!!!!!!
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I like the way Bastardi is suggesting a whole new method of measuring storms as a way of being "right".... lol

Not that I'm against it - but a more scientific approach, suggested off season, might get me to take him more seriously.

re: 302, Progster, thanks for the follow-up on that yellow circle. I have to admit I wasn't following that wave once we got a TS off it. I'll be watching post season for a potential reclassification.
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Quoting cheaterwon:
I did Anadarco was not completed until 2002 so it wasn't around in 2001. Anyways thanks for all the great weather info and maps that you post.
Ehh, I won on a technicality. (I didn't know Anadarco was taller.)

So what do I win? (j/k)

About Igor's ACE, his KE on the probability distribution is right at the same for SS scale.



We'll see what 18Z shows with Igor's strengthening.
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Quoting Drakoen:
Igor probably a Category 4 hurricane right now.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 SEP 2010 Time : 151500 UTC
Lat : 17:39:04 N Lon : 45:23:32 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 952.4mb/112.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.2 6.2


Wow, he was a Cat1 in the morning. Definite RI.
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340. 1344
Both Igor and Julia will recurve IMO. Why is the EPAC so inactive?
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I guess that WSW motion of Igor was just a "wobble".
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Igor will likely become the first category 5 hurricane of the season.
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Link

Bye,Bye Igor! Say hi to Iceland!
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Quoting RMM34667:


Thanks, From what I read annular hurricanes do not lose intensity as quickly, and maintain strenght in adverse conditions. Suppose an annular hurricane took a similar path as Earl. Earl seemed to go from a CAT 4 to CAT2 in the blink of an eye. Is my understanding correct in that an annular storm would be able to hold on to the CAT4 as it brushed NE and headed for Canadian Maritines?

That would be scary. I was glad to read they are VERY RARE.


Annular hurricanes typically do not survive in sea temperatures lower than 25C (77F). Earl very nearly became annular but developed outer bands. Igor has a better chance of doing so out in the Atlantic and seems to be wobbling AND developing a large eye.

Here's the list of favourable conditions for annular hurricanes again:

*An intensity 85% or greater from their theoretical maximum potential intensity,
*Weak wind shear from the east or southeast,
*A cold east wind at a high altitude (the 200 mbar pressure level),
*Near-constant sea surface temperatures between 25.4 °C and 28.5 °C, and
*Lack of relative eddy flux convergence at the 200 mbar pressure level, relative to the storm.
Member Since: August 30, 2008 Posts: 8 Comments: 2834
Quoting RMM34667:


Thanks, From what I read annular hurricanes do not lose intensity as quickly, and maintain strenght in adverse conditions. Suppose an annular hurricane took a similar path as Earl. Earl seemed to go from a CAT 4 to CAT2 in the blink of an eye. Is my understanding correct in that an annular storm would be able to hold on to the CAT4 as it brushed NE and headed for Canadian Maritines?

That would be scary. I was glad to read they are VERY RARE.


That's correct to an extent. Still not properly understood (considering its rarity, can't blame scientists for that). Annular eye formation isn't permanent as some seem to think, it just puts off eyewall replacement cycles a bit longer. Eventually, it occurs though, and the hurricane returns to its default.

Annular eye formation is also only created when a storm attains 90% or more (approximately) of its MPI (maximum potential intensity).
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting Ryuujin:
To me on the water vapor link on NHC's website, that trof is getting flattened out something fierce by the the high over Texas squishing out east and fast. If I'm crazy, please let me know.. but here is the image...

i can't see it.But if you are indeed correct someone may be in trouble....
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Igor probably a Category 4 hurricane right now.

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 SEP 2010 Time : 151500 UTC
Lat : 17:39:04 N Lon : 45:23:32 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 952.4mb/112.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.2 6.2

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Drak whats your forecast with Igor, you were just about dead on with Earl, the question I also have: whats this about Bastardi, what is he saying that has people agreeing with him?
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331. ackee
Quoting CybrTeddy:
T# for 92L have increased..
12/1145 UTC 15.7N 70.7W T1.5/1.5 92L
expalain does this number increase mean a possible TD later today
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Quoting washingtonian115:
"I mean we all expected Igor to be a monster"
I for one did.And I predicted several months in advance that Igor will probaly be a long track powerful cape verde storm.
that is too hilarious to comment on. several months in advance .. how come u didn't let the nhc know. why don't u let them know exactly where it is going since your crystal ball works so well.
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Quoting BahaHurican:
I can see that potentially happening. I'm more concerned about the 3 - 5 day period, since I'm not so convinced that trough will induce enough of a NW motion to keep Igor recurving at that point. And I'm not seeing much else out there to prevent an additional westward movement in the interim....
I'm in Puerto Rico. Does the slower foward motion good of bad for us in the NE caribbean?
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To me on the water vapor link on NHC's website, that trof is getting flattened out something fierce by the the high over Texas squishing out east and fast. If I'm crazy, please let me know.. but here is the image...

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I see TD12 formed this morning from that powerful tropical wave we were watching over the West African coast:

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Quoting RecordSeason:


"When I grow up, I wanna be a cat5!!"

Still firing deep convection.
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Quoting RecordSeason:


"When I grow up, I wanna be a cat5!!"
Igor looks stronger than a 105 cat 2 hurricane.I'd say 120mph hurricane next advisory,the way this storm is streghtning.
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Quoting LBAR:
What are the odds of TD 12 pulling Igor "back" a little?

It won't "pull" it back but if it weakens/blocks the ridge that is causing the trade winds which are pushing Igor west then Igor slows down.
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Igor is going to bang a right like Earl, but probably a bit sooner which potentially puts Bermuda in the crosshairs...
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Quoting RecordSeason:
If you look at the loop, you'll notice that it is firing very deep convection around the entire eyewall, particularly the eastern semicircle.

Igor continues to undergo rapid intensification.
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One more thing about igors track is the warm moist air being brought up from the south by 92L(which is right where 92L that became Alex is) will help enhance the weakness in the ridge. The trof ans 92L appear to be interacting a bit at upper levels in IR sat loops
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Quoting BenBIogger:


Yes, But not by a lot track-wise.


Thanks, From what I read annular hurricanes do not lose intensity as quickly, and maintain strenght in adverse conditions. Suppose an annular hurricane took a similar path as Earl. Earl seemed to go from a CAT 4 to CAT2 in the blink of an eye. Is my understanding correct in that an annular storm would be able to hold on to the CAT4 as it brushed NE and headed for Canadian Maritines?

That would be scary. I was glad to read they are VERY RARE.
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Quoting Hhunter:


bastardi predicted early earl going further west than nhc called for but never hyped a direct earl hit but side swipe..so he has gravitas already this season and in this situation
So far he hasn't hyped any storm this season.The media wih Earl?.Different story........
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yes.

Ok, that's what I was thinking, just making sure.
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Quoting MZT:

No, we're done with that. I was confused because he posted an image of 92L with a caption describing TD12.
He is a she and I posted 92L image and I said 92L but the floater was labeled AL12. Done now.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8242
"I mean we all expected Igor to be a monster"
I for one did.And I predicted several months in advance that Igor will probaly be a long track powerful cape verde storm.
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313. LBAR
What are the odds of TD 12 pulling Igor "back" a little?
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Quoting MZT:
Interesting comments by Bastardi. I give him more credit in his written analysis than what he has to quickly explain on TV.


bastardi predicted early earl going further west than nhc called for but never hyped a direct earl hit but side swipe..so he has gravitas already this season and in this situation
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Quoting RMM34667:
IF Igor were to become annular, would that change the forecast?


Yes, But not by a lot track-wise.
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the issue with an earl like track is any wobble south or to the west puts all of us in the path. So I would not go as far as to say that, I want to see whether the weakness that is being talked about happens, before I speak about that. Remember we all saw that weakness that Earl hit start to close up before he shot through there. So if that weakness does close up before Igor gets there, then all bets are off. If he is a stronger storm than forecast, all bets are off.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:
When is recon scheduled to go into 92L?
I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CENTRAL CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 12/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01EEA INVEST
C. 12/1145Z
D. 15.5N 70.0W
E. 12/1700Z TO 12/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
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Remember folks, once you get into major hurricanes, ACE really shoots up.

ACE Quick Tutorial

And Bastardi's measure of a season by a maximum recorded pressure only is ridiculous. Of all the things to measure a season, that's one of the least accurate to make any informed statement.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting BahaHurican:
This is the first in a while that I've seen which might potentially aspire to the label "annular". NOT saying it's that way now, mind u....
What effect would that have on the track of a hurricane?
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AL, 92, 2010091212, , BEST, 0, 157N, 707W, 25, 1007
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Quoting tornadolarkin:

I agree. Do you think he's undergoing RI?
Yes.
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304. MZT
Interesting comments by Bastardi. I give him more credit in his written analysis than what he has to quickly explain on TV.
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Quoting sailingallover:

Earl left track bias happened for 5 days straight and ended up re-curving and passing 20 North around 68W rather than the 50W initially forecast
Igors was forecast to pass 20N at 50W on Wednesday morning.
Thursday it was 55W
Friday 60W and looking very earl like.
Yesterday shifted back right to 55W and has been fairly stable since.
I wouldn't be surprised to see another Earl-like track, at least up to about 70W. After that, I'm still trying to figure. One thing I'm fairly sure about is that we're unlikely to see less than a major at 70W, regardless of how far north it is at that point. And I seriously doubt we'll see a recurve to Nward track before that point [though I would love to be wrong about that...]
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Quoting BahaHurican:
Something was spinning out there on WV imagery last time I looked on Friday evening. NHC designated it an AOI yesterday, I suppose, but didn't expect much to come of it.


At the end of the season it may be deemed an unnamed subtopical system. It formed along the northern apex of the same easterly wave that spawned Igor and persisted with good rotation for several days, but was always too sheared to develop further.
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.
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When is recon scheduled to go into 92L?
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Quoting brainpimp:


Mandeville here


I gots all kinds of neighbors here!! Nice to meet ya.
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IF Igor were to become annular, would that change the forecast?
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my bomb throw before fantasy football final preps conus east coast conus texas...heads upSUNDAY 9:30 AM

latest bastardi


SUNDAY MORNING COMMENTS

First, on Igor. True to the ideas yesterday, the European has shifted west and now has Igor reaching as far west as 72 west. This is over 12 degrees from the 00z run,sep 10th. The UKMET remains west and I have not seen the 00z Japanese out that far. The GFS remains insistent on its recurve east of 65 west.

There is probably a simple rule to use here. If the storm is south

of 25 north at 70 west, the US coast will most likely have at least tropical storm impact from this. The fact is the the models are trying to get the storm to hook with the atlantic trough, and since the pattern is in a retrogressive mode, that trough keeps dipping in further west with time until by the time we are out to 168 hours, if the hurricane is south of 30 north, there really wont be anything to get it out of there. This is why you see the Ensembles, and again the Euro leads the way with predicting this, showing such a spread out area of low pressure once to day 8.. from the bahamas to south of Newfoundland. because some of its members take it westward. In many ways, the combination of Igor, what will be Julia now off the African coast, and the developing cyclone in the Caribbean supply us with a similar case to Earl, Fiona and Hermine... if one looks at Igor as the threat to the east coast, Julia having to recurve if Igor comes as far west as I think it will ( to at least 70 west) and what will be Karl the threat to Texas in the longer term via the Yucatan and then a fade northwest at the end. In fact one might as well correct the Euro north ( its track is into Tampico but at least it sees it, the GFS would have you believe nothing is there) since a) its ensembles are leaning north and b) its not like nothing has been aimed there so far.. it would make the 4th classified system to make a landfall within 75 miles of Brownsville, ALex, Hermine and the depression being the other 3.

Speaking of the system in the Caribbean, now it has a chance to go as the convection that has fired is much more co-ordinated with the low level wave. Yesterdays impressive look was all outflow but the low level wave was well behind what looked to be the mid level center and then upper outflow. Not so today as a center near 15.5 and 69 looks to be coordinated with the cloud shots and the data.


This ship report:

SHIP S 1200 16.90 -69.20 149 318 50 24.1 - 13.1


near 17 north and 69.2 west has a northeast wind at 24 kts with 13 foot seas and a pressure at 1009 mb Looking around it, I see a sharp windshift in that area with a southwest northeast trough, and its co-ordinated nicely now with the cloud shot, so this should start going now. If I had a hatch-it job, now I would have it as a high threat for development with in 48 hours. Of course, I dont have a hatch-it jobs as I am not allowed to play with sharp objects.

By the way, 13 foot seas area the give away that something is cooking. You dont get a 13 foot sea without strong concentrated winds in the tropics.

In looking at Igor we find again the US models have been too far north too quick. Its on the order of 150 miles in 3 days.. and that is not bad.. in fact its a good forecast overall but the same error continuing would mean that the model would try to recurve the system. The first challenge is tomorrow and Tuesday so lets see where it goes. Looking at the Euro hurricane forecast, there are more members south of its track than north. And as I have stated several times already this is going to be the strongest hurricane of the season thus far, hence the big threat if it comes as far west as I have it.

By the way, when you see a trough off the east coast in 192 hours, that is because the model forecasting it is recurving the hurricane. Its not because there is a trough there by then, its the hurricane that causes the

trough. If there is no hurricane, or its stalled next Sunday between Hatteras and the Bahamas, then the whole map is different. My point is that if you look at the runs that dont recurve the storm, then you get a different map. There is no trough off the east coast, without a recurved storm next week, as the pattern is shifting. In fact a look at the Euro shows it has another development trying to start up day 10 near Puerto Rico anyway,and of course the GFS day 15 is trying to scare the daylights out of the gulf with its monster. The point being this pattern is ripe for storms and rumors of storms

One more thing.. a word about my overall seasonal power index to replace the ace.. using pressures of each storm set against 1000 mb as the 0 point. If we look at the storms this year.. Alex at 947 would get 53 points, Bonnie and Colin 0 ( pressures stayed above 1000 mb) Danielle at 942 would have gotten 58 points, Earl at 929 71 points, Fiona at 989 11 points, Gaston none, Hermine 990 mb 10 points and so far Igor at 980 with 20 , you come up with a much better scale for how strong the season is. I think Igor is getting to 920-930 btw. But I am willing to bet when we get done with this season, if we total the pressures of these storms up against previous known seasons, this is a top 5 season. You watch.

BTW some wild weather coming the next two weeks as heat refires and tries to come northeast into a stubborn boundary, but summer is not done yet for some of you that are a bit on the chilly side now. Interestingly enough, the same old GFS nonsense with temps has been going on from when I was in college the US models overcooling the east. For all the cold air that was coming, the days of 6-9 below normal over the east coast, where the heck is it. PHL last 5 days plus 1.4 Bos plus 2.4..even Chicago, where it was supposed to have gotten quite chilly is only 2-6 below normal the past 5 days. Heck this surge coming this weekend or next week gets up into there, it will wipe out 10 days of cool with 2 days of warm

But there is no question that cooler air has gotten into the pattern since Aug 22, when we named Danielle. And since by Sept 22 we may be all the way to the letter L or M, I think I have made my point to you about what sets seasons off. In fact the only thing I need now ( besides running the total numbers up a bit more) is to get the end game to give me the impact scores I need to verify. Again faced with the problem of having to balance the desire to be right.. and by doing so, performing a valuable service, against the implications of such things. It is a problem I wrestle with constantly

thanks for reading, ciao for now




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296. MZT
Quoting TheDawnAwakening:


He said 92L, unless he just fixed that.

No, we're done with that. I was confused because I thought he posted an image of 92L with a caption describing TD12. IE "losing the bubble"
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About JeffMasters

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.