92L still a threat to develop; Igor a hurricane; TD 12 forming near Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:18 PM GMT on September 12, 2010

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Tropical disturbance (92L) over the Central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of the Dominican Republic, remains a threat to develop into a tropical depression. Satellite loops this morning show 92L may be starting to form a surface circulation, and an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate 92L this afternoon to see if a tropical depression is forming.

The storm has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorm with limited low-level spiral banding and upper-level outflow, thanks to an infusion of dry air last night that disrupted the storm. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico shows that heavy rains are affecting that island, but there is no rotation to the radar echoes evident. Wind shear over 92L is low, 5 - 10 knots. The waters beneath are hot, 29.5°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies to the north and west of 92L, and this dry air could interfere with development at times over the next few days.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 92L.

Track forecast for 92L
The disturbance is moving west to west-northwest at 15 mph, and steering currents favor a continuation of this motion for the next three days. Model support for development is scattered. The GFS and NOGAPS models do not develop 92L. The GFDL and ECMWF models predict development, with a track taking 92L into Belize or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. On this track, the southern Dominican Republic can expect heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches today through Monday morning; southern Haiti can expect similar rains tonight through Monday night, and Jamaica and the Cayman Islands can expect heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches Monday and Tuesday. Eastern Cuba can expect rains in the 2 - 4 inch range. Once 92L crosses the Yucatan, the ridge of high pressure steering it is expected to remain in place, forcing 92L to a second landfall in Mexico south of the Texas border.

Intensity forecast for 92L
NHC is putting the odds of 92L developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday at 50%; I'd put them higher, at 70%. However, time is running out for 92L to become a hurricane before hitting the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. Given the current disorganized state of 92L, it would be difficult for it to intensify quickly enough to become a hurricane by then. The storm may also suffer another of its mysterious evening collapses, where it loses most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. However, the SHIPS model predicts wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, through the period, and water temperatures are certainly warm enough to support development. The main detriment to intensification is likely to be dry air, and 92L could wrap in some of the dry air to its northwest at times, slowing down development. There are a number of research flights being made into 92L this afternoon that should help long-term efforts to make better predictions in the future on whether or not disturbances like this will develop or not.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Igor.

Igor
Hurricane Igor appears destined to become a large and powerful major hurricane over the Central Atlantic in the days to come. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is expected to drop below 5 knots for the next five days. Waters are warm, 28°C, and will warm to 29°C by Wednesday. Igor has moistened its environment enough to keep the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) at bay. Igor is undergoing a period of rapid intensification today, and will probably be a Category 3 or 4 hurricane by Monday.

The track forecast for Igor remains unchanged. Igor will move west under the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure for the next 2 - 3 days, then turn more to the west-northwest then northwest in response to the steering influence of a broad trough of low pressure moving across the Western Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. This should allow Igor to pass several hundred miles to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. In the longer range, Igor may be a threat to Bermuda, and does have a small chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast or Canada. Climatology shows that about 15% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at Igor's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are about 10% for Bermuda and 10% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the period 5 - 12 days from now from the ECMWF and GFS models shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without affecting any land areas. Recent runs of the ECMWF model indicate that these troughs may not be as intense as previously thought, so it is possible Igor has a higher chance than usual to hit land than climatology suggests. One wild card may be the possible development of TD 12 behind Igor. If TD 12 develops into a hurricane, and moves close to Igor, as some of the models are suggesting, the two hurricanes could rotate around a common center, forcing Igor more towards the coast of the U.S. The long term fate of Igor is difficult to predict at this point.

Tropical Depression Twelve forms
Tropical Depression Twelve formed between the Cape Verdes Islands and coast of Africa this morning, and is already affecting the Cape Verdes with winds near tropical storm strength; sustained winds of 35 mph were recorded in the northwest Cape Verdes this morning. You can follow the progress of TD 12 through the Cape Verdes today using our wundermap.

Next post
I'll have a new post Monday morning, and perhaps late this afternoon if events warrant.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting atmoaggie:

Yeah and my temp outside went from 76 to 84 in 2 hours. Sometime tomorrow morning, it will be approximately 172 F. (Hmmm, feels like it sometimes.)

+1
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Quoting hunkerdown:
I think you missed the bus...waiting for the short one ??


If you guys have a dispute with my calculation, please explain it in a dignified and reasonable manner. The purpose of this blog was so that some intelligent banter regarding the tropics could be created. That can be achieved without plain rudeness.
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ATMO LOL
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Quoting atmoaggie:

Yeah and my temp outside went from 76 to 84 in 2 hours. Sometime tomorrow morning, it will be approximately 172 F. (Hmmm, feels like it sometimes.)

Nah, maybe down to about oh, 900MB at the worst case scenario!!!
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Looks very frightening. Well he is Igor...

We definitely don't want Igor anywhere near us..
Earl became a Cat 4 just north of us so did not have as solid and expansive wind field as Igor will when he gets to 60-65W.

For some reason on her everyone seems to want to westcast/not recurvecast storms..
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Quoting Bordonaro:
Well well well..TD 12 was born :o)!! Igor is going to ramp up to a CAT 4 or even CAT 5..Up to almost 10 TC's, TD 12 should be the next TS later today.

Poor 92L is having a hard time with dry air, hopefully that does not develop into a TS/Hurricane.


Is 92L developing into a wave more than a TS?
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92L/INV/XX MARK 15.25N/74.14W
011L/MH/I/C3 MARK 17.98N/45.98W
012L/TD/J/ MARK OUT OF RANGE.
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I cant get over how those cold cloud tops are starting to form a very nice donut appearance around the eye of Igor... No doubt, major RI..
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atmoaggie was just joking no poof
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Quoting nyhurricaneboy:
I'd like to talk some math with regards to IGOR.

The pressure went from 970ish mb to 950ish mb in a little less than 2 hours.

That's a 20 mb drop per 2 hours, which is a 10 mb drop per hour.

10 mb X 24 hrs = 240 mb

970 mb - 240 mb = 730 mb

Let's hope current trends do not continue.

I don't know how to respond to that.
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Brownsville NWS morning discussion

.LONG TERM /7 PM MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...500MB SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE PARKED ACROSS THE SOUTHERN UNITED STATES AND THE NORTHERN
GULF OF MEXICO MONDAY IS PROGGED TO FLATTEN OUT SOMEWHAT TUESDAY.
LOW TO MID LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY HIGH ACROSS THE
RIO GRANDE PLAINS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY SO WILL CONTINUE TO
MENTION A SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF RAIN MAINLY FOR SEABREEZE
CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER CONTINUES TO MONITOR AN AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER
ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE EAST-
CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA. CURRENTLY THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AND MOST OF THE
LONG RANGE MODELS BRINGS THIS FEATURE WESTWARD ACROSS THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA WEDNESDAY INTO THE BAY OF CAMPECHE THURSDAY. AT THE VERY
LEAST...WILL LIKELY SEE AN INCREASE IN DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND DEPENDING ON THE SIZE AND
MOVEMENT OF ANY TROPICAL SYSTEM OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE...WILL AT
LEAST INCREASE SUBSIDENCE ACROSS THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO AND
DECREASE THE CHANCE OF SEABREEZE CONVECTION FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
WAY TOO EARLY TO DETERMINE WHAT IMPACTS THE AREA OF DISTURBED
WEATHER WILL HAVE FOR DEEP SOUTH TX AT THIS TIME FOR NEXT WEEKEND.
INTERESTS IN THE WESTERN GULF OF MEXICO SHOULD REMAIN VIGILANT
NEXT WEEK FOR THE POTENTIAL OF A TROPICAL SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE AREA.

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Quoting atmoaggie:

Yeah and my temp outside went from 76 to 84 in 2 hours. Sometime tomorrow morning, it will be approximately 172 F. (Hmmm, feels like it sometimes.)


You completely missed the point.

LOL at it feeling like it.

POOF!
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Real Time Tropical Cyclone Products
Thanks!

Quoting Cotillion:
Let's recap, folks:

' THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 90 KT IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY...A
UW-CIMSS ADT OF 107 KT...AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS OF 86 KT...THAT
INCLUDES A BLEND OF AMSU MICROWAVE ESTIMATES.'

Now, what does this tell us?
Those satellite estimates are from 12z (8am EDT)...the ADT estimates are much more recent. Yes, ADT tends to overdo it once the eye appears, but, the intensity of Igor right now is likely around category 4 strength.
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Well well well..TD 12 was born :o)!! Igor is going to ramp up to a CAT 4 or even CAT 5..Up to almost 10 TC's, TD 12 should be the next TS later today.

Poor 92L is having a hard time with dry air, hopefully that does not develop into a TS/Hurricane.
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Quoting jason2010xxxx:
It looks like it is moving a little south of due west.
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Quoting cornchucker:
There is a definite eye that has formed already for TD 12. Wow

td dont form eyes period!!!
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Quoting nyhurricaneboy:
I'd like to talk some math with regards to IGOR.

The pressure went from 970ish mb to 950ish mb in a little less than 2 hours.

That's a 20 mb drop per 2 hours, which is a 10 mb drop per hour.

10 mb X 24 hrs = 240 mb

970 mb - 240 mb = 730 mb

Let's hope current trends do not continue.

Yeah and my temp outside went from 76 to 84 in 2 hours. Sometime tomorrow morning, it will be approximately 172 F. (Hmmm, feels like it sometimes.)
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Quoting sailingallover:

I wish..
Look at the shape of the ridge on surface charts.
Why do you think it will take Irenes track?
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_000l.gif

Because it's almost inevitable that a trough will pick Igor up by the end of this week, unless it somehow trends much flatter. Storms can go through areas of surface high pressure if the upper-level pattern says recurve.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
I wish I had a JPG image of Igor's eye right now...


Just editing the image now.

Gimmie a sec.
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15947
Link

right on forecast points
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There is a definite eye that has formed already for TD 12. Wow
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423. MZT
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Igor has a beautiful structure.
Yes, Igor was a demonstration of organization trumping dry air. Seems like we see more often that dry air can beat systems into remnant lows (Gaston) ... but if it's a one day problem, good structure can overcome it.
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Let's recap, folks:

' THE INITIAL
INTENSITY OF 90 KT IS BASED ON A COMPROMISE OF SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES OF 77 AND 90 KT FROM SAB AND TAFB...RESPECTIVELY...A
UW-CIMSS ADT OF 107 KT...AND A SATELLITE CONSENSUS OF 86 KT...THAT
INCLUDES A BLEND OF AMSU MICROWAVE ESTIMATES.'

Now, what does this tell us?
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting Neapolitan:


As I said earlier: Bastardi's suggestion is completely ridiculous; if nothing else, longevity wouldn't matter under his scheme, so that, for example, a long-track storm that only reached Cat 3 pressure wouldn't be considered as powerful as a one-day wonder that RI's from a TS to a Cat 4 in, say, 48 hours, then dissipates just as quickly. His claim that it would make the measuring process more objective doesn't stand, either, as pressure readings are no more no less accurate than wind readings.
Pressure obs on buoys and on land are far more reliable and objective than wind obs. The wind values are affected by waves, trees, time-averaging (which is not standard across all platforms), measurement height (as is pressure, but with less unknown effects), etc. Pressure, so long as the instrument is functional, isn't debatable. Period.

That said, Bastardi is a bit loco on the rest of it. And our only pressure obs at sea, outside of buoys, are estimates. Satellites and HHs do not measure surface pressure, though the HH estimates are pretty good.
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Quoting sailingallover:

Why do you think it will not get picked up into the current trough that it will intersect with at 55W.
Note I should have said start re-curving and moving on a more NW NNW track.

This shows the trough
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/ATIR.JPG
This shows the trough making good progess eastward and a little southward still
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-avn.html

Not seeing much more of a Sward trend with that of now... looks like it's flattened out. I'm thinking Igor won't get pulled north much by this. That's why I'm looking more at the second trough to see how much impact it's likely to have.

Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22682
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah, the raw T# is almost at T6.5, which is equal to 127kt. We are likely dealing with a category 4 hurricane right now.

Anyways, where do you find those satellite images? I can't fins them on the Ramsdis site.


Real Time Tropical Cyclone Products
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15947
I wish I had a JPG image of Igor's eye right now...
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Quoting KanKunKid:


It's already way past 1500 (3 PM) UTC. If you don't specify your time zone, your prediction has too large of a window to be useful.
1500UTC=9 AM EDT and I think he was refering to 2PM/5PM EDT.
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Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15947
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
ADT says Category 4

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 SEP 2010 Time : 154500 UTC
Lat : 17:39:13 N Lon : 45:36:50 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 950.0mb/115.0kt



Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.4 6.4



Yeah, the raw T# is almost at T6.5, which is equal to 127kt (146.1mph). We are likely dealing with a category 4 hurricane right now.

Anyways, where do you find those satellite images? I can't find them on the Ramsdis site.
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Quoting sailingallover:

Earl left track bias happened for 5 days straight and ended up re-curving and passing 20 North around 68W rather than the 50W initially forecast
Igors was forecast to pass 20N at 50W on Wednesday morning.
Thursday it was 55W
Friday 60W and looking very earl like.
Yesterday shifted back right to 55W and has been fairly stable since.
SH,SH,SH hope it doesn't shift to 60W again, if so we are in trouble, meaning the NE cab islands.
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Quoting hydrus:
I wonder if this is the first time the Cape Verde Islands have had tropical storm watches twice in one season?


When was the other?

This has been the only CV TS Watch/Warning.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
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I'd like to talk some math with regards to IGOR.

The pressure went from 970ish mb to 950ish mb in a little less than 2 hours.

That's a 20 mb drop per 2 hours, which is a 10 mb drop per hour.

10 mb X 24 hrs = 240 mb

970 mb - 240 mb = 730 mb

Let's hope current trends do not continue.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
ADT says Category 4

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 SEP 2010 Time : 154500 UTC
Lat : 17:39:13 N Lon : 45:36:50 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 950.0mb/115.0kt



Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.4 6.4




Igor has a beautiful structure.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 SEP 2010 Time : 154500 UTC
Lat : 17:39:13 N Lon : 45:36:50 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 950.0mb/115.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.4 6.4
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Quoting Neapolitan:


As I said earlier: Bastardi's suggestion is completely ridiculous; if nothing else, longevity wouldn't matter under his scheme, so that, for example, a long-track storm that only reached Cat 3 pressure wouldn't be considered as powerful as a one-day wonder that RI's from a TS to a Cat 4 in, say, 48 hours, then dissipates just as quickly. His claim that it would make the measuring process more objective doesn't stand, either, as pressure readings are no more no less accurate than wind readings.

Having saidf all that, though, I fo agree with him that Hurricane Alex's Cat 2 rating seems ludicrous for a storm that maintained 947mb, a Cat 4 pressure. Post-season analysis may see that changed.


Agreed. As for Alex, I don't know. Ike also had a very low pressure for his winds (when in the Gulf), Alex also took a long time... the winds never seemed to catch up.

Of course, it can look more ridiculous when you put Alex next to Felix:

Alex, 947mb, 105mph.
Felix, 929mb, 175mph.

Hmm.

However, there has never been - and never will be - a direct link between pressure and windspeed. Maybe there'll be some updates in the PSA, but I wouldn't be surprised whatsoever if there wasn't.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting philliesrock:
I think Igor will recurve in the same area as Irene 2005. Obviously, the intensity will be much stronger.


I wish..
Look at the shape of the ridge on surface charts.
Why do you think it will take Irenes track?
http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/gfs/12/images/gfs_pcp_000l.gif
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LITTLE SOUTH OF HIS PATH.
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ADT says Category 4

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 SEP 2010 Time : 154500 UTC
Lat : 17:39:13 N Lon : 45:36:50 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 950.0mb/115.0kt



Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.4 6.4



Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15947
Quoting Cotillion:


Be the first time ever, I think.

I can't recall a hurricane hitting it. Tropical Storms, yeah.
I wonder if this is the first time the Cape Verde Islands have had tropical storm watches twice in one season?
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Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I predict at 2PM, we will have TS Julia.

At 5PM, I expect Igor to be a Category 4.


It's already way past 1500 (3 PM) UTC. If you don't specify your time zone, your prediction has too large of a window to be useful.
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Quoting plywoodstatenative:
the biggest question becomes are we talking eastern as around NC or around Florida?

ECMWF has it following Earls track very closely brushing NC. I can see no way Igor will make it to FL.
If the first trough does not pick it up the second will
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/ATIR.JPG
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Very impressive

Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15947
I think Igor will recurve in the same area as Irene 2005. Obviously, the intensity will be much stronger.

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Quoting jurakantaino:
I'm in Puerto Rico. Does the slower foward motion good of bad for us in the NE caribbean?
Not sure right now, though my instinct say's slower motion = greater chance to miss the trough. We're playing "wait and see", I guess.

Quoting divdog:
that is too hilarious to comment on. several months in advance .. how come u didn't let the nhc know. why don't u let them know exactly where it is going since your crystal ball works so well.
Relax, dude, it was a "name-cast", and given the other forecasts and based on climatology it wasn't THAT hard to make such a call....

Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Igor will likely become the first category 5 hurricane of the season.
Just very, very reminded of Isabel right now...

Quoting 1344:
Both Igor and Julia will recurve IMO. Why is the EPAC so inactive?
EPac is generally that way during la nina. Remember La Nina piles up the cooler waters near the EPac MDR. If you read more about El Nino / Southern Oscillation you'll get a better understanding.
Member Since: October 25, 2005 Posts: 19 Comments: 22682
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
the biggest question becomes are we talking eastern as around NC or around Florida?


I think the Florida east coast is to far west. I would say NC to New England if it was going to cause problems with the USA. I still think it will be a Bermuda problem.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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