92L still a threat to develop; Igor a hurricane; TD 12 forming near Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:18 PM GMT on September 12, 2010

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Tropical disturbance (92L) over the Central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of the Dominican Republic, remains a threat to develop into a tropical depression. Satellite loops this morning show 92L may be starting to form a surface circulation, and an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate 92L this afternoon to see if a tropical depression is forming.

The storm has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorm with limited low-level spiral banding and upper-level outflow, thanks to an infusion of dry air last night that disrupted the storm. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico shows that heavy rains are affecting that island, but there is no rotation to the radar echoes evident. Wind shear over 92L is low, 5 - 10 knots. The waters beneath are hot, 29.5°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies to the north and west of 92L, and this dry air could interfere with development at times over the next few days.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 92L.

Track forecast for 92L
The disturbance is moving west to west-northwest at 15 mph, and steering currents favor a continuation of this motion for the next three days. Model support for development is scattered. The GFS and NOGAPS models do not develop 92L. The GFDL and ECMWF models predict development, with a track taking 92L into Belize or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. On this track, the southern Dominican Republic can expect heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches today through Monday morning; southern Haiti can expect similar rains tonight through Monday night, and Jamaica and the Cayman Islands can expect heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches Monday and Tuesday. Eastern Cuba can expect rains in the 2 - 4 inch range. Once 92L crosses the Yucatan, the ridge of high pressure steering it is expected to remain in place, forcing 92L to a second landfall in Mexico south of the Texas border.

Intensity forecast for 92L
NHC is putting the odds of 92L developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday at 50%; I'd put them higher, at 70%. However, time is running out for 92L to become a hurricane before hitting the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. Given the current disorganized state of 92L, it would be difficult for it to intensify quickly enough to become a hurricane by then. The storm may also suffer another of its mysterious evening collapses, where it loses most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. However, the SHIPS model predicts wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, through the period, and water temperatures are certainly warm enough to support development. The main detriment to intensification is likely to be dry air, and 92L could wrap in some of the dry air to its northwest at times, slowing down development. There are a number of research flights being made into 92L this afternoon that should help long-term efforts to make better predictions in the future on whether or not disturbances like this will develop or not.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Igor.

Igor
Hurricane Igor appears destined to become a large and powerful major hurricane over the Central Atlantic in the days to come. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is expected to drop below 5 knots for the next five days. Waters are warm, 28°C, and will warm to 29°C by Wednesday. Igor has moistened its environment enough to keep the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) at bay. Igor is undergoing a period of rapid intensification today, and will probably be a Category 3 or 4 hurricane by Monday.

The track forecast for Igor remains unchanged. Igor will move west under the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure for the next 2 - 3 days, then turn more to the west-northwest then northwest in response to the steering influence of a broad trough of low pressure moving across the Western Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. This should allow Igor to pass several hundred miles to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. In the longer range, Igor may be a threat to Bermuda, and does have a small chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast or Canada. Climatology shows that about 15% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at Igor's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are about 10% for Bermuda and 10% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the period 5 - 12 days from now from the ECMWF and GFS models shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without affecting any land areas. Recent runs of the ECMWF model indicate that these troughs may not be as intense as previously thought, so it is possible Igor has a higher chance than usual to hit land than climatology suggests. One wild card may be the possible development of TD 12 behind Igor. If TD 12 develops into a hurricane, and moves close to Igor, as some of the models are suggesting, the two hurricanes could rotate around a common center, forcing Igor more towards the coast of the U.S. The long term fate of Igor is difficult to predict at this point.

Tropical Depression Twelve forms
Tropical Depression Twelve formed between the Cape Verdes Islands and coast of Africa this morning, and is already affecting the Cape Verdes with winds near tropical storm strength; sustained winds of 35 mph were recorded in the northwest Cape Verdes this morning. You can follow the progress of TD 12 through the Cape Verdes today using our wundermap.

Next post
I'll have a new post Monday morning, and perhaps late this afternoon if events warrant.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting cycloone:
Is it me or is there a pinwheel eye forming??





Exactly, I was about to say Igor looks like a mini-Isabel!! Wow, Igor, wow!
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dolphins are showing rapid intesification, 10 millibars to 0. I will not evacuate if this continues to happen.
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Atlantic Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
This product is updated at approximately 2 AM, 8 AM, 2 PM, and 8 PM EDT from June 1 to November 30. Special outlooks may be issued as conditions warrant.
Place your mouse cursor over areas of interest for more information Archived Outlooks



GIS data: .shp

ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 1145 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...AND ON NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE...LOCATED
ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA...SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...
JAMAICA AND CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.



Well, NHC hasn't given up on 92L just yet. I think they'll hold on to the 50% atleast until it gets to the Yucatan. If nothing's formed at that point, much more likely they'll downgrade. Just my 2 cents.
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Quoting LongIslandXpress38:


Yeah man, time to head for the Catskills! :)


Wurtsboro is a beautiful place to run to. *G*
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92l not lookin so hot. he may not develop as some models are starting to indicate. igor looks like one bad dude. interesting what his future may hold.
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Quoting cycloone:
Is it me or is there a pinwheel eye forming??



good ob, let's see if it persists.
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Quoting largeeyes:


Nasty? I'm not sure nasty encompasses what the 12Z CMC is...


Well it's the Canadian....don't ever take it too seriously, but it's worth taking a look at if it has support from elsewhere, which it does.
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Quoting cycloone:
Is it me or is there a pinwheel eye forming??




Worst case scenario happening...
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Quoting Drakoen:


Looks like a Category 4 hurricane. NHC might go with a strong Category 3 if they choose the conservative route.


Afternoon all.

Drak? Are you referring to Igor there?! Apparently I need to take a look at that sucker.
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Igor is a hurricane no one wants to mess with at this moment. Very scary looking, and I wouldn't be surprised he is a category four hurricane, but the NHC will go conservative now with a category three hurricane is my best bet. Man the Pats defense looks real good.
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686. MZT
If Igor is drawn up by that second trough, thank Hermine... She was absorbed into it and extended the southern end of it a bit.
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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 SEP 2010 Time : 164500 UTC
Lat : 17:39:38 N Lon : 45:50:15 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 947.4mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.4 6.4


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Is Igor an Annular Hurricane?


Cuz it looks a lot like one.
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Quoting Levi32:
Yaaaa....12z CMC is nasty.


Nasty? I'm not sure nasty encompasses what the 12Z CMC is...
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Quoting hurricane23:
Anything is possible but i doupt the 12z CMC comes even close to verifying.


Why could it not verify>
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Quoting FloridaTigers:
So could we see Igor become annular?


I'm pretty convinced by now that igor is becoming anular
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Quoting sailingallover:

There is a huge difference in the Atlantic.
One Earl was supposed to follow Danille. that was the reasoning for recurve. The is no Danille this time.
There is a Trough with another behind with a Low forecast to form along the first one which will certainly pick up Igor.
There is also no extropical low north of the Azores to reinforce the ridge. The one that brushed down behind Danille flattened her for a day if you remember.

Why when the models/forcast are solid and have Igor re-curving do people insist on west casting him?


Because there's much more to it than what you explained.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SPREADING RAIN OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...

.
.
I love it.
I'm a big time Verde-caster.
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No SA for Igor?

Awwww...
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Quoting btwntx08:
couple of hrs old but

lets see what 18z says


That always shows a closed low.

Always.
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


What do you mean the Japanese?

The JMA?
Yes.
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Hey Miami are you a Dolphins fan too or just the canes???
Of course I'm a Dolphins fan :). So far, so good, 3-0.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah, depicts something similar to the Japanese. Let's see what the 12z Euro comes out with.


What do you mean the Japanese?

The JMA?
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Quoting stoormfury:
tomorrow by this time. if that recurvature of Igor does not materialise then the northern islands should be on guard. remember Ivan in 2004 when most of the models hinted that the central windwards will be hit. only for Ivan to continue west and hit Grenada

Very agree with you
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So could we see Igor become annular?
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Quoting redUK:
This must be well wrong?

Whoa.... looks like an actual landfall for the Cape Verde Islands rather than merely a brush....

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Quoting cycloone:
Is it me or is there a pinwheel eye forming??





Oh man, igors characteristics look so similar to isabels, hope it's not the same for the track!
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Anything is possible but i doupt the 12z CMC comes even close to verifying.
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Quoting Drakoen:
Set up like this would bring Igor close to the U.S. eastern seaboard. You've got high pressure to the north of the system and a trough out over the Ohio and Tennessee river valleys
now drak wouldnt that be to close for comfort for those of us here in florida
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Quoting Drakoen:
Set up like this would bring Igor close to the U.S. eastern seaboard. You've got high pressure to the north of the system and a trough out over the Ohio and Tennessee river valleys
agreed... IF it sets up that way... time will tell..
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Quoting StormW:


Too many people hung up on models.


GFS is the gospel! ;)
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Is it me or is there a pinwheel eye forming??



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Quoting Seflhurricane:
hey miami could the 12Z cmc be a real possibility ???
Yes, you have high pressure to the north and troughing over the central U.S. Igor could very well be a large problem for the SE U.S., albeit it less likely then a recurvature. We'll just have to see how everything progresses.
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 121739
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 1145 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...AND ON NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE...LOCATED
ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA...SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...
JAMAICA AND CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN
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Hey Miami are you a Dolphins fan too or just the canes???
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I guess the one positive note- If Igor could obtain the elite Cat 5 status this far out by the time ( if it should)effect any land mass, could be a weaker storm. However, there have been 3 Cat 5 hurricanes that obtained Cat 5 status three times each. Alan, Ivan and Isabel with Allen in 1980 being the longest. I believe the others Dog, David as examples stayed Cat 5 only for 42 to 60 hours. But with this crazy year, who knows.
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Quoting IKE:
12Z NOGAPS...


12Z CMC...

no no no that thing has Igir going west,.... not allowed....
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So around next thursday, we will know how Igor will be affecting the US coast-Wilm, NC NWS

LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 3:00 AM SUNDAY...NE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MOST OF THE
PERIOD VEERING TO THE EAST AND FINALLY SOUTHEAST BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES FROM THE MIDWEST TO THE MID ATLANTIC.
LATEST HURRICANE RUN OF THE WAVEWATCH HAS LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM
IGOR ARRIVING EARLY THURSDAY INCREASING THROUGHOUT THE DAY.
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHTS MAY BE MITIGATED AS WE SAW WITH DANIELLE
SWELL DUE TO THE VERY LONG PERIODS AND DAMPENING ENERGY WELL
OFFSHORE. FOR NOW 2-4 FEET WILL REMAIN THE FORECAST.
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Set up like this would bring Igor close to the U.S. eastern seaboard. You've got high pressure to the north of the system and a trough out over the Ohio and Tennessee river valleys
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah, depicts something similar to the Japanese. Let's see what the 12z Euro comes out with.
hey miami could the 12Z cmc be a real possibility ???
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Quoting JP2010:
The new 12Z CMC model takes IGOR much farther SW heading toward the SE US at 144HR.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2010091212&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Ani mation


EARL track?
WOW! Not good!
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Igor looks to be moving a touch south of west.
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...TROPICAL DEPRESSION SPREADING RAIN OVER THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 22.2W
ABOUT 190 MI...305 KM SE OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 285 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
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Afternoon StormW... I'm sitting here watching the Dolphins game (big fish fan here) and was reflecting on all that preaching you did this year... Looks to be coming to fruition my friend. Starting to look ominous out in the Atlantic and with all of that heat potential out there (even with some of it released into the Russian heat wave and Europe) Looks like this season could be a 2005 type season (not in number of storms) in length of season.. Everything is so hot storms are turning into tropical situations as soon as they dip thier toe in the water from Africa.... Hope we can keep dodging bullets here in Florida but with the patterns setting up the way they seem Im thinking the clock is ticking on us here in the South East.
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Quoting largeeyes:
I wonder, if you were inside the eye of Igor, if your ears would be popping.

That would be the LEAST of your worries....
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000
ABNT20 KNHC 121739
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SUN SEP 12 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 1145 MILES EAST OF THE NORTHERN LEEWARD
ISLANDS...AND ON NEWLY FORMED TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE...LOCATED
ABOUT 190 MILES SOUTHEAST OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN DISORGANIZED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA...SOUTH OF HISPANIOLA. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STILL APPEAR
FAVORABLE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION COULD FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50
PERCENT...
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
IS POSSIBLE IN THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...HISPANIOLA...
JAMAICA AND CUBA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THESE RAINS COULD
CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

PUBLIC ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO
HEADER WTNT32 KNHC AND UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCPAT2.
FORECAST/ADVISORIES ARE ISSUED UNDER WMO HEADER WTNT22 KNHC AND
UNDER AWIPS HEADER MIATCMAT2.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

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011L/MH/I/C3
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Quoting cheetaking:
Igor is definitely showing the potential to continue explosive deepening if it can maintain its present structure:

Note that the latest microwave image on Igor shows a lack of any legitimate secondary bands. This means that unlike Alex, Danielle, and Earl, which had clear secondary wind maximas, nothing is dispersing the energy of the inner eyewall in Igor.



Structure looks like a CAT 4 w/135MPH winds w/central pressure of 945MBS, my humble opinion!!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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