92L still a threat to develop; Igor a hurricane; TD 12 forming near Africa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 2:18 PM GMT on September 12, 2010

Share this Blog
1
+

Tropical disturbance (92L) over the Central Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of the Dominican Republic, remains a threat to develop into a tropical depression. Satellite loops this morning show 92L may be starting to form a surface circulation, and an Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft will investigate 92L this afternoon to see if a tropical depression is forming.

The storm has only a modest area of heavy thunderstorm with limited low-level spiral banding and upper-level outflow, thanks to an infusion of dry air last night that disrupted the storm. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico shows that heavy rains are affecting that island, but there is no rotation to the radar echoes evident. Wind shear over 92L is low, 5 - 10 knots. The waters beneath are hot, 29.5°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies to the north and west of 92L, and this dry air could interfere with development at times over the next few days.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 92L.

Track forecast for 92L
The disturbance is moving west to west-northwest at 15 mph, and steering currents favor a continuation of this motion for the next three days. Model support for development is scattered. The GFS and NOGAPS models do not develop 92L. The GFDL and ECMWF models predict development, with a track taking 92L into Belize or Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. On this track, the southern Dominican Republic can expect heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches today through Monday morning; southern Haiti can expect similar rains tonight through Monday night, and Jamaica and the Cayman Islands can expect heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches Monday and Tuesday. Eastern Cuba can expect rains in the 2 - 4 inch range. Once 92L crosses the Yucatan, the ridge of high pressure steering it is expected to remain in place, forcing 92L to a second landfall in Mexico south of the Texas border.

Intensity forecast for 92L
NHC is putting the odds of 92L developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday at 50%; I'd put them higher, at 70%. However, time is running out for 92L to become a hurricane before hitting the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. Given the current disorganized state of 92L, it would be difficult for it to intensify quickly enough to become a hurricane by then. The storm may also suffer another of its mysterious evening collapses, where it loses most of its heavy thunderstorm activity. However, the SHIPS model predicts wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, through the period, and water temperatures are certainly warm enough to support development. The main detriment to intensification is likely to be dry air, and 92L could wrap in some of the dry air to its northwest at times, slowing down development. There are a number of research flights being made into 92L this afternoon that should help long-term efforts to make better predictions in the future on whether or not disturbances like this will develop or not.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of Igor.

Igor
Hurricane Igor appears destined to become a large and powerful major hurricane over the Central Atlantic in the days to come. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots, and is expected to drop below 5 knots for the next five days. Waters are warm, 28°C, and will warm to 29°C by Wednesday. Igor has moistened its environment enough to keep the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) at bay. Igor is undergoing a period of rapid intensification today, and will probably be a Category 3 or 4 hurricane by Monday.

The track forecast for Igor remains unchanged. Igor will move west under the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure for the next 2 - 3 days, then turn more to the west-northwest then northwest in response to the steering influence of a broad trough of low pressure moving across the Western Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. This should allow Igor to pass several hundred miles to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. In the longer range, Igor may be a threat to Bermuda, and does have a small chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast or Canada. Climatology shows that about 15% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at Igor's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are about 10% for Bermuda and 10% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the period 5 - 12 days from now from the ECMWF and GFS models shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without affecting any land areas. Recent runs of the ECMWF model indicate that these troughs may not be as intense as previously thought, so it is possible Igor has a higher chance than usual to hit land than climatology suggests. One wild card may be the possible development of TD 12 behind Igor. If TD 12 develops into a hurricane, and moves close to Igor, as some of the models are suggesting, the two hurricanes could rotate around a common center, forcing Igor more towards the coast of the U.S. The long term fate of Igor is difficult to predict at this point.

Tropical Depression Twelve forms
Tropical Depression Twelve formed between the Cape Verdes Islands and coast of Africa this morning, and is already affecting the Cape Verdes with winds near tropical storm strength; sustained winds of 35 mph were recorded in the northwest Cape Verdes this morning. You can follow the progress of TD 12 through the Cape Verdes today using our wundermap.

Next post
I'll have a new post Monday morning, and perhaps late this afternoon if events warrant.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1696 - 1646

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85Blog Index

Quoting tinkahbell:
What exactly constitutes a "fish storm"? I would think that if it affects land in any way it could not be termed a "fish"...right? Wrong?


An ambiguous term at best and, obviously, highly debatable. My opinion? Any storm that has no detrimental affect on any land, i.e. severe erosion, flooding, etc., and of course the obvious. Others have differing opinions I'm sure.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting btwntx08:
hmmm convection firing away with 92L i believe its starting to take advantage


Yep 92L is blowing up now...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:
Watch how easy this is....

Right now there is a 50% chance of Igor recurving and a 50% chance that he won't. I need about 72 hours before I can really nail down a forecast for Igor.

Right now the trough set-up is pretty flat, and that will make it tough to recurve Igor. The high that is currently guiding the fwd motion if Igor should weaken slightly, inducing a slight wnw motion in about 24 -3 hours. He will also be nearing the edge of the ridge soon after that, but if he pumps the ridge, then expect more westward motion.

The forecast is just so complicated for Igor that more time is needed before really seeing exactly what is in store. Right now water vapor imagery suggest a flatter path for Igor and the CONUS is at about a 50% chance of a strike. It is also at a 50% chance of no strike.

Whew.


about sums it up.
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Thank you. Well said and easy for anyone to understand.


Jeff hit the nail on the head, the final track of Igor is not that easy to predict. 50/50 sounds about right
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1690. IKE
Quoting scott39:
So a high is forecasted to block most of the gulf coast?


From what I've read and heard...yes.

I know where it isn't coming...and that's to the Florida panhandle....and I'm glad.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting blsealevel:


FloatingCity 92L although might not seem like much today dont count it out just yet.
just starting to get a little spin to it broad as it is, but it is expected to develop.
i'm watchng this close along with a lot of others in the blog and news last i saw it supposed to go N of what they expected it to do once it gets in the GOMEX.
Stay Safe
Yes thank you for that...we are about 40 miles offshore del carmen and we may have to start preperations for safe haven as early as tomorrow...maybe head to Veracruz...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting DestinJeff:
Watch how easy this is....

Right now there is a 50% chance of Igor recurving and a 50% chance that he won't. I need about 72 hours before I can really nail down a forecast for Igor.

Right now the trough set-up is pretty flat, and that will make it tough to recurve Igor. The high that is currently guiding the fwd motion if Igor should weaken slightly, inducing a slight wnw motion in about 24 -3 hours. He will also be nearing the edge of the ridge soon after that, but if he pumps the ridge, then expect more westward motion.

The forecast is just so complicated for Igor that more time is needed before really seeing exactly what is in store. Right now water vapor imagery suggest a flatter path for Igor and the CONUS is at about a 50% chance of a strike. It is also at a 50% chance of no strike.

Whew.


Thank you. Well said and easy for anyone to understand.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1685. IKE
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Most of the time when they have given the coordinates it has looked a little further west to me. Anyway, recon are on the way now so we will soon know what is what.


Good. Thanks for posting that. I'll be looking out for their reports. Looks a little encouraging for you...so far, based on satellite, to me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1684. jonelu
I leave for 16 hrs and Igor goes from TS to CAT4....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1683. scott39
Quoting IKE:


It is hard to tell. I see a spin near 15N and 74W. NHC says it's at 16N and 72W. Looks further west then that to me.
So a high is forecasted to block most of the gulf coast?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1682. will40
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Recon heading towards 92L now. Guess we will find out a little later exactly what is going on with it.

URNT15 KWBC 122112
NOAA3 WXWXA 92L2 HDOB 10 20100912
210300 2507N 07855W 5265 05493 0300 -025 -089 321005 006 011 001 00
210330 2506N 07853W 5264 05494 0301 -023 -121 305005 006 012 001 00
210400 2504N 07851W 5265 05492 0300 -023 -123 303004 005 010 002 00
210430 2503N 07849W 5265 05492 0300 -023 -123 310004 004 008 002 03
210500 2502N 07847W 5263 05494 0300 -023 -123 305003 005 010 002 00
210530 2500N 07845W 5262 05496 0299 -021 -123 316002 002 011 001 03
210600 2459N 07843W 5262 05494 0298 -022 -128 327003 003 013 001 00
210630 2458N 07840W 5262 05494 0299 -022 -127 320003 003 011 002 00
210700 2456N 07838W 5262 05495 0300 -025 -081 319002 003 012 001 00
210730 2455N 07836W 5263 05495 0300 -027 -046 307002 003 016 001 00
210800 2454N 07834W 5262 05495 0300 -024 -096 006003 003 012 002 00
210830 2452N 07832W 5262 05494 0299 -023 -091 323003 004 017 000 00
210900 2451N 07830W 5263 05493 0298 -024 -120 335005 005 014 002 00
210930 2450N 07828W 5264 05492 0298 -023 -123 352006 007 014 002 00
211000 2448N 07825W 5263 05493 0299 -022 -102 002007 008 /// /// 03
211030 2447N 07823W 5263 05494 0299 -023 -055 041003 005 /// /// 03
211100 2446N 07821W 5264 05493 0299 -023 -114 003005 006 /// /// 03
211130 2444N 07819W 5263 05493 0300 -022 -116 004006 006 /// /// 03
211200 2443N 07817W 5265 05491 0299 -021 -117 353007 007 /// /// 03
211230 2442N 07815W 5264 05490 0297 -020 -117 002008 008 /// /// 03



thats a NOAA flight i think they canceled the HH flight
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Lets see a cat 5 storm if it hits anyone is a automatic catastropic event, even though they have alot of concrete structures in bermuda a north east eyewall hit to the island will deystroy even those not from the winds but from the 20-30 foot storm surge.But any iron ibeams will still remain, it would look simalar to gulfport miss after katrina washed away hotels building's of that nature.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Before I leave...

Some of you are really immature, MSK was just stating his opinion that Igor could recurve a little too late, which is entirely a possible situation. It's not a guarantee that Igor will miss the USA, cut it out now! Let people share their opinions, it's a forum.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1678. leo305
Quoting IKE:


It is hard to tell. I see a spin near 15N and 74W. NHC says it's at 16N and 72W. Looks further west then that to me.


there's a consolidating LLC near 17N
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


The track looks about the same as their previous track. It just keeps it heading in the same direction further. Looks like a northern Mexico landfall based on the NHC track(subject to change).



NHC giving us the illusion treatment.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting hurristat:
Igor is not a fish storm -- it already affected the Cape Verde Islands.

Causing minimal damage, but still affecting land. Direct hit (No Landfall) at Brava, Cape Verde.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting IKE:


It is hard to tell. I see a spin near 15N and 74W. NHC says it's at 16N and 72W. Looks further west then that to me.
Most of the time when they have given the coordinates it has looked a little further west to me. Anyway, recon are on the way now so we will soon know what is what.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


FloatingCity 92L although might not seem like much today dont count it out just yet.
just starting to get a little spin to it broad as it is, but it is expected to develop.
i'm watchng this close along with a lot of others in the blog and news last i saw it supposed to go N of what they expected it to do once it gets in the GOMEX.
Stay Safe
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 1918
1671. Max1023
I think ADT will hit 7.0 overnight tonight, unless an EWRC starts. Right now Igor is under D-MIN, which doesn't have much of an effect for a major cane however it would tend to cool off eyewall convection due to a more unstable atmosphere.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Same here, for the life of me I cannot see why people bash reed's opinion.


Because anyone who dares speculate on one of these storms making landfall, and who dares to buck the "please let this go out to sea" collective mentality of this place is scorned.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Recon heading towards 92L now. Guess we will find out a little later exactly what is going on with it.

URNT15 KWBC 122112
NOAA3 WXWXA 92L2 HDOB 10 20100912
210300 2507N 07855W 5265 05493 0300 -025 -089 321005 006 011 001 00
210330 2506N 07853W 5264 05494 0301 -023 -121 305005 006 012 001 00
210400 2504N 07851W 5265 05492 0300 -023 -123 303004 005 010 002 00
210430 2503N 07849W 5265 05492 0300 -023 -123 310004 004 008 002 03
210500 2502N 07847W 5263 05494 0300 -023 -123 305003 005 010 002 00
210530 2500N 07845W 5262 05496 0299 -021 -123 316002 002 011 001 03
210600 2459N 07843W 5262 05494 0298 -022 -128 327003 003 013 001 00
210630 2458N 07840W 5262 05494 0299 -022 -127 320003 003 011 002 00
210700 2456N 07838W 5262 05495 0300 -025 -081 319002 003 012 001 00
210730 2455N 07836W 5263 05495 0300 -027 -046 307002 003 016 001 00
210800 2454N 07834W 5262 05495 0300 -024 -096 006003 003 012 002 00
210830 2452N 07832W 5262 05494 0299 -023 -091 323003 004 017 000 00
210900 2451N 07830W 5263 05493 0298 -024 -120 335005 005 014 002 00
210930 2450N 07828W 5264 05492 0298 -023 -123 352006 007 014 002 00
211000 2448N 07825W 5263 05493 0299 -022 -102 002007 008 /// /// 03
211030 2447N 07823W 5263 05494 0299 -023 -055 041003 005 /// /// 03
211100 2446N 07821W 5264 05493 0299 -023 -114 003005 006 /// /// 03
211130 2444N 07819W 5263 05493 0300 -022 -116 004006 006 /// /// 03
211200 2443N 07817W 5265 05491 0299 -021 -117 353007 007 /// /// 03
211230 2442N 07815W 5264 05490 0297 -020 -117 002008 008 /// /// 03

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneIsabel:


I'm concerned on what kind of drugs you are taking?
They must be good....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
What about defining a Fish Storm, one that leaves it's Eye, at least 100 miles from the coast??? 50 maybe, 25???
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1665. BVI
Quoting BVImom:
Thanks Everybody - I appreciate the feedback. I guess I'll be glued to the blog for the next few days - it really is an exercise in patience.


Agree, looking for that north west turn!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Igor is a monster hurricane right now and has that classic appearance, I will be back after 630pm. Also 92L is finally showing some encouraging signs.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1663. IKE
Quoting scott39:
Does the COC seem farther N with 92L on Satt, than the latest coordinates? Its hard to tell.


It is hard to tell. I see a spin near 15N and 74W. NHC says it's at 16N and 72W. Looks further west then that to me.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1662. help4u
The FCM has Igor hitting Florida.Fantasy Cast Model.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
The RAW T# is the highest its ever been now, up to 6.7.

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.5 6.7 6.7

That would translate to around 133kt (153mph).
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21193
Quoting Hurricanes101:
and don't get me wrong, there are people who blindly ignore evidence and say a storm will hit here or there, trust me I know that

however most of those people pop up every once in awhile to get a rise out of others. All of the people I would consider regulars have shown evidence to support their predictions.

It would be great if for once instead of people calling each other out for their opinions, that people could actually have a civil discussion about their differing opinions.


*APPLAUSE*
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1657. scott39
Its time to start reporting to Admin again.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1656. Max1023
Who votes to put a 20 character limit on Caps per Post??
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


I am just tired of the fact that no one is ever allowed to put forth the opinion that a storm may go further west than the models or the NHC predicts without being called a wish-caster, west-caster or being called out for wanting a US threat.

With Earl people said they felt he would move further south and west, and those people were called out for being west-casters. In the end they were right and the storm came much closer to the US than originally forecasted. Most people who feel a system will go further west, show evidence to support their opinion and they are still called out.



I mostly lurk, and I have certainly seen the same thing. But, it isn't limited to west-casting. You pretty much get attacked around here no matter what. Calling it a fish storm is as big a sin as saying it'll slam Florida. And whatever you do, don't ever suggest something may dissipate. Then you're a down-caster.

One thing I have noticed though... I don't ever recall any of the 'attackers' coming back after the fact and pointing out that someone ended up being right. I guess it just doesn't work that way around here.

All that aside, there is some useful info to be had here. You just have to do a lot of tuning-out and sorting through the garbage.

Lurking isn't a bad way to go.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting HurricaneIsabel:
What would a CAT 5 Direct hit do to Bermuda?



I think common sense should answer this question....cmon!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Igor is not a fish storm -- it already affected the Cape Verde Islands.
Member Since: October 15, 2008 Posts: 11 Comments: 2312
Quoting Walshy:


It is a small world. Believe it or not, the so called fish hurricane Danielle indirectly killed people in rough surf. People who have a very slim chance of being hit want to call it a fish storm. Similar to a hurricane affecting Bermuda or Canada.

I believe if people are bored with fish storms then they may need to rethink if they even like meteorology. These people would be even more bored trying to forecast for land areas, sunny and dry for the next five days. That would drive them insane!

I totally agree with you...most people on here try to forecast a terrorist storm, trying to frighten the daylights out of people...for the love of God
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1648. will40
Direct Hit:
A close approach of a tropical cyclone to a particular location. For locations on the left-hand side of a tropical cyclone's track (looking in the direction of motion), a direct hit occurs when the cyclone passes to within a distance equal to the cyclone's radius of maximum wind. For locations on the right-hand side of the track, a direct hit occurs when the cyclone passes to within a distance equal to twice the radius of maximum wind.

i think this should determine a fish storm form a non fish storm it comes from the NHC
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Very intense eyewall associated with Igor. Beginning to look like a high-end category 4.


Proportion-wise, he has a big eye.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 1696 - 1646

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52 | 53 | 54 | 55 | 56 | 57 | 58 | 59 | 60 | 61 | 62 | 63 | 64 | 65 | 66 | 67 | 68 | 69 | 70 | 71 | 72 | 73 | 74 | 75 | 76 | 77 | 78 | 79 | 80 | 81 | 82 | 83 | 84 | 85Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.