Potentially dangerous 92L steadily developing; Igor nears hurricane strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on September 11, 2010

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A tropical disturbance (92L) over the Eastern Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico, is steadily organizing and appears likely to develop into a tropical depression by tonight or Sunday morning. Satellite loops show an impressive and expanding region of heavy thunderstorms, with good spiral banding and respectable upper-level outflow on all sides. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico shows that heavy rains are now affecting that island, but there is no rotation to the radar echoes evident. However, the rain bands are becoming more intense and more organized. San Juan, Puerto Rico reported a heavy rain squall at 8:44 am this morning, and radar estimates suggest two inches of rain fell in this squall just southeast of San Juan. Wind shear over 92L is low, 5 - 10 knots. The waters beneath are at near-record warmth, 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies to the north and west of 92L, and this dry air could interfere with development at times over the next few days.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 92L.

Track forecast for 92L
The disturbance is moving west-northwest at 11 mph, and steering currents favor a continuation of this motion for the next three days. Model support for development is scattered. The GFS and NOGAPS models do not develop 92L. The GFDL and ECMWF models predict development, with a track taking 92L into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. The HWRF model has a more northwesterly track, taking 92L over the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Cuba, but this model has been trending too far north in its tracks. I expect 92L will follow a path south of the islands, bringing it near or just south of Jamaica on Monday, then into the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. On this track, the southern Dominican Republic can expect heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches tonight through Monday morning; southern Haiti can expect similar rains Sunday through Monday, and Jamaica and the Cayman Islands can expect heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches Monday and Tuesday. Eastern Cuba will probably escape 92L's heaviest rains in this scenario (Figure 2.)

Intensity forecast for 92L
I can't find any reason to doubt this will be a tropical storm by Sunday or Monday, and potentially a Category 1 or 2 hurricane by Wednesday, if 92L avoids passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. The SHIPS model predicts wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, through the period, and makes 92L a Category 1 hurricane by Monday night. Water temperatures are certainly warm enough to support development. The main detriment to intensification is likely to be dry air, and 92L could wrap in some of the dry air to its northwest at times, slowing down development. The first Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into 92L is scheduled for Sunday afternoon, but there will be a research mission by the National Center for Atmospheric Research G-V jet today that will give us valuable information on 92L's large scale environment and potential for development.


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts from 92L from the 2am EDT Saturday run of the GFDL model. This model predicts most of 92L's heaviest rains will miss Haiti, but will affect Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan Peninsula. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Igor
Tropical Storm Igor is very close to hurricane strength, and appears destined to become a large and powerful major hurricane over the Central Atlantic in the days to come. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, waters are warm, 28°C, and Igor has moistened its environment enough to keep the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) at bay. Igor will track west under the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure for the next three days, then turn more to the west-northwest in response to the steering influence of a broad trough of low pressure moving across the Western Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. This should allow Igor to pass several hundred miles to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. In the longer range, Igor may be a threat to Bermuda, and has a slight chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast or Canada. Climatology shows that about 10% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at Igor's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are about 10% for Bermuda and 5% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the coming two weeks from the GFS model shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without affecting any land areas. The odds of Igor hitting land in the U.S. or Canada are probably close to their climatological 10% and 5% probabilities, respectively.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A new tropical wave (Invest 93L) emerged from the coast of Africa yesterday, and is already showing signs of organization. Most of the models predict 93L will develop into a tropical depression 2 - 4 days from now, and NHC is giving 93L a 30% chance of developing by Monday.

Next post
This may be my only post today; I'll have a new post Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting DestinJeff:


and the Central Atlantic fish are all doom.

right, Nea?


You know, I don't think I've ever used the 'f' and the 'd' words here--other than in parody--so I don't think I'll start that now; I'll leave that to, uh, others. ;-) Anyway, 93L/Julia appears set to pull a '95 Noel kind of path, though even farther east than that storm. Igor looks to possibly follow Colin's path (while being much stronger, of course). 92L/Karl seems to be the biggest threat to land somewhere...
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13597
Quoting surfmom:
Happy SPAWN day - *giggle*


LOL!
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Quoting surfmom:
Happy SPAWN day - *giggle*


Such a way with words, Surfie.. ;)

But, thank you. :)
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2219. scott39
Quoting traumaboyy:


YESS.....unless we are talking football......BUT I Digress to the Tropics!!
The TIDE will roll far inland, long after Hurricane Season is over!!
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2217. surfmom
Quoting Cotillion:


All spawn of Karen...
Happy SPAWN day - *giggle*
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2216. scott39
I will give you 3 guesses and the first 2 dont count. Where is 92L going to go towards if it Developes? And who will he remind you of?
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2215. surfmom
Quoting DestinJeff:
Soon the "its south of its next TFP" posts will be waking up.
you talking to me LOL?
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Good morning all...the next week should be interesting!(Right on schedule)
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Quoting scott39:
We rule! LOL


YESS.....unless we are talking football......BUT I Digress to the Tropics!!
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2211. scott39
Quoting DestinJeff:
Must be some dry air on the western flank



Is the air hot too?
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2209. scott39
Quoting traumaboyy:


Is everyone in here from Northwest Florida??
We rule! LOL
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Quoting weatherwart:


Nope. West central.

And dude, a word of advice on the child support thing? If you keep dropping them acorns around, a few oaks are gonna sprout. Know what I'm sayin'? ;)


Stuff the mailman never told me......lol
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Is everyone in here from Northwest Florida??


Nope. West central.

And dude, a word of advice on the child support thing? If you keep dropping them acorns around, a few oaks are gonna sprout. Know what I'm sayin'? ;)
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Quoting Neapolitan:
Been up for a while studying things (and sipping my coffee). My take:

--Igor is finally hitting his stride today; he appears to be insulating himself more and more from the drier air to his north and west, which is now at least 200 miles from his eye. Given that, relaxed shear, and high SSTs, and he should become a Cat 2 today, if not a Cat 3 by this evening.

--92L's conditons are improving as well. It, too, has dry air to contend with, but with all other factors being positive, it should be able to fight that off. Too, development is far enough west and south that the mountains of Hispaniola should prove only a very minor impediment. Upshot: 92L will likely become TD13 today, and TS Karl tomorrow (Monday).

--93L is getting its act together very nicely; pressures are dropping, winds are rising, and conditions are favorable. 93L should be TD12 this morning, and TS Julia by this afternoon/evening.

--Another healthy low-latitude wave is set to emerge of of Africa by Tuesday morning; this one will be in very favorable conditions, and while it's too early to tell, it appears to have an excellent chance to become TD14 by later in the week.

Bottom line: a very busy week in the tropics.

Couldn't agree more.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
See...



Just look for reds, that is high pressure. See the big, gaping hole in the reds north of Igor...then the greens and yellows?

Sorry, Reed, et al. but Igor is not striking CONUS. Not as of current modeling.

Subject to change, as always. But not likely to strike CONUS.


agreed....maybe something get in GOMEX and get slammed into Florida like OPAL....but it looks like Fall is hitting CONUS early!
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Good Morning.
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Quoting scott39:
I left out my native tounge is Lower Al.


Is everyone in here from Northwest Florida??
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Quoting weatherwart:


Whoa. Small world, bro.


I don't know why conversations like this make me nervous....I just get a feeling my child support is going up again....lol
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2197. scott39
Quoting scott39:
Here now you will get it-Ketching-up to do. I was going back to my native tounge on that first post.
I left out my native tounge is Lower Al.
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Dude....is the mailman your daddy too???


Whoa. Small world, bro.
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Been up for a while studying things (and sipping my coffee). My take:

--Igor is finally hitting his stride today; he appears to be insulating himself more and more from the drier air to his north and west, which is now at least 200 miles from his eye. Given that, relaxed shear, and high SSTs, and he should become a Cat 2 today, if not a Cat 3 by this evening.

--92L's conditons are improving as well. It, too, has dry air to contend with, but with all other factors being positive, it should be able to fight that off. Too, development is far enough west and south that the mountains of Hispaniola should prove only a very minor impediment. Upshot: 92L will likely become TD13 today, and TS Karl tomorrow (Monday).

--93L is getting its act together very nicely; pressures are dropping, winds are rising, and conditions are favorable. 93L should be TD12 this morning, and TS Julia by this afternoon/evening.

--Another healthy low-latitude wave is set to emerge of of Africa by Tuesday morning; this one will be in very favorable conditions, and while it's too early to tell, it appears to have an excellent chance to become TD14 by later in the week.

Bottom line: a very busy week in the tropics.
Member Since: November 8, 2009 Posts: 4 Comments: 13597
Quoting weatherwart:


We also have the same occupation. :)


Dude....is the mailman your daddy too???
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2193. scott39
Quoting DestinJeff:


You be doom.

I'll be Death. It is my Oz-inspired Hurricane Death Suit... I kill them all, or at least scare them into recurving.
Keep the death suit on. you can only take it off when there no art work on the NHC site!
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Quoting traumaboyy:


We got same birthday!!


We also have the same occupation. :)
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Quoting DestinJeff:


You be doom.

I'll be Death. It is my Oz-inspired Hurricane Death Suit... I kill them all, or at least scare them into recurving.


D'oh. You're right. I feel the world is safer with you and your Death Suit on guard, DJ. Thank you.
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2189. scott39
Quoting scott39:
LOL- yea its got alot of Ket-chup-ing to do.
Here now you will get it-Ketching-up to do. I was going back to my native tounge on that first post.
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Without heights above 588 in the western Atlantic, you won't see a storm strike CONUS



I'll drink to that!!
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Quoting weatherwart:
I don't know, DJ. I think.. I think..

We are doom.


We got same birthday!!
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2185. scott39
Quoting DestinJeff:


Caribbean Jerk?
Sounds Tasty.
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2183. scott39
Quoting traumaboyy:


definately a ketchup storm...lol
LOL- yea its got alot of Ket-chup-ing to do.
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I don't know, DJ. I think.. I think..

We are doom.
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Quoting scott39:
What do you think 92L Likes?


definately a ketchup storm...lol
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2178. scott39
Quoting DestinJeff:
Don't forget, Igor likes tartar sauce.
What do you think 92L Likes?
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Don't forget, Igor likes tartar sauce.


LOL....Igor Rocks!!

Kewl Avatar!!
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2175. scott39
Quoting Cotillion:


Well... The Gulf Coast might get a little bit of a break. It depends on the patterns.

However, if this next 10-15 years is similar to the 1950s, then the Gulf Coast will have a bit of a reprieve compared to the next 10-15 years. It will still get hit, no doubt.

But, you look at the records for that decade. North Carolina got hit more than Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, and Louisiana combined. In fact, Maine had the same amount of hurricanes Louisiana did (NB: LA still had to deal with Audrey, a most vicious storm).

North Carolina got even more hurricane hits than Florida during the '50s.

Not to say all storms will love NC this next decade. History repeats itself, yes, but usually not in *exactly* the same way.

Plus, it's all based on a huge *if* - *if* these next few years are like the 50s.
I hope thats the case. Well, not for NC, but you know what I mean. What do you think the reason is for Some of these Tropical systems dying off in convection at NIGHT? Example: Gaston, 92L ect...
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Quoting Cotillion:


Well... The Gulf Coast might get a little bit of a break. It depends on the patterns.

However, if this next 10-15 years is similar to the 1950s, then the Gulf Coast will have a bit of a reprieve compared to the next 10-15 years. It will still get hit, no doubt.

But, you look at the records for that decade. North Carolina got hit more than Texas, Mississippi, Alabama, and Louisiana combined. In fact, Maine had the same amount of hurricanes Louisiana did (NB: LA still had to deal with Audrey, a most vicious storm).

North Carolina got even more hurricane hits than Florida during the '50s.

Not to say all storms will love NC this next decade. History repeats itself, yes, but usually not in *exactly* the same way.

Plus, it's all based on a huge *if* - *if* these next few years are like the 50s.


Sure hope you right about quiet on GOMEX....I live in Florida....LOVE NOLA....and Texas has had enough so that will work and I will be about 52 in 15 years and maybe it will be time to settle down and grow up........NOT!!
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Good morning. And Good morning, Igor.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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