Potentially dangerous 92L steadily developing; Igor nears hurricane strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on September 11, 2010

Share this Blog
0
+

A tropical disturbance (92L) over the Eastern Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico, is steadily organizing and appears likely to develop into a tropical depression by tonight or Sunday morning. Satellite loops show an impressive and expanding region of heavy thunderstorms, with good spiral banding and respectable upper-level outflow on all sides. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico shows that heavy rains are now affecting that island, but there is no rotation to the radar echoes evident. However, the rain bands are becoming more intense and more organized. San Juan, Puerto Rico reported a heavy rain squall at 8:44 am this morning, and radar estimates suggest two inches of rain fell in this squall just southeast of San Juan. Wind shear over 92L is low, 5 - 10 knots. The waters beneath are at near-record warmth, 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies to the north and west of 92L, and this dry air could interfere with development at times over the next few days.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 92L.

Track forecast for 92L
The disturbance is moving west-northwest at 11 mph, and steering currents favor a continuation of this motion for the next three days. Model support for development is scattered. The GFS and NOGAPS models do not develop 92L. The GFDL and ECMWF models predict development, with a track taking 92L into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. The HWRF model has a more northwesterly track, taking 92L over the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Cuba, but this model has been trending too far north in its tracks. I expect 92L will follow a path south of the islands, bringing it near or just south of Jamaica on Monday, then into the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. On this track, the southern Dominican Republic can expect heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches tonight through Monday morning; southern Haiti can expect similar rains Sunday through Monday, and Jamaica and the Cayman Islands can expect heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches Monday and Tuesday. Eastern Cuba will probably escape 92L's heaviest rains in this scenario (Figure 2.)

Intensity forecast for 92L
I can't find any reason to doubt this will be a tropical storm by Sunday or Monday, and potentially a Category 1 or 2 hurricane by Wednesday, if 92L avoids passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. The SHIPS model predicts wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, through the period, and makes 92L a Category 1 hurricane by Monday night. Water temperatures are certainly warm enough to support development. The main detriment to intensification is likely to be dry air, and 92L could wrap in some of the dry air to its northwest at times, slowing down development. The first Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into 92L is scheduled for Sunday afternoon, but there will be a research mission by the National Center for Atmospheric Research G-V jet today that will give us valuable information on 92L's large scale environment and potential for development.


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts from 92L from the 2am EDT Saturday run of the GFDL model. This model predicts most of 92L's heaviest rains will miss Haiti, but will affect Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan Peninsula. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Igor
Tropical Storm Igor is very close to hurricane strength, and appears destined to become a large and powerful major hurricane over the Central Atlantic in the days to come. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, waters are warm, 28°C, and Igor has moistened its environment enough to keep the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) at bay. Igor will track west under the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure for the next three days, then turn more to the west-northwest in response to the steering influence of a broad trough of low pressure moving across the Western Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. This should allow Igor to pass several hundred miles to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. In the longer range, Igor may be a threat to Bermuda, and has a slight chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast or Canada. Climatology shows that about 10% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at Igor's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are about 10% for Bermuda and 5% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the coming two weeks from the GFS model shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without affecting any land areas. The odds of Igor hitting land in the U.S. or Canada are probably close to their climatological 10% and 5% probabilities, respectively.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A new tropical wave (Invest 93L) emerged from the coast of Africa yesterday, and is already showing signs of organization. Most of the models predict 93L will develop into a tropical depression 2 - 4 days from now, and NHC is giving 93L a 30% chance of developing by Monday.

Next post
This may be my only post today; I'll have a new post Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 173 - 123

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52Blog Index

Anyone know what is that area of showers and thunderstorms located near 30N 50W? It's accompanied by an area of low pressure as noted on satellite loops.

Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Anyone have buoy readings from the area of 92L

Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting btwntx08:
im back

Well I guess that resolves the issue, all models point to the Yuc.... that means it'll hit Fla..lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting luigi18:

sorry thanks
Semi-Permanent fix for that: http://www.rocketdownload.com/program/caps-lock-changer-68722.html
Disables/reassigns those 2 mistakes in keyboard design, Caps Lock and Insert.

Other way is edit registry (do not try this if you don't know what you are doing): http://www.howtogeek.com/howto/windows-vista/disable-caps-lock-key-in-windows-vista/
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Agree. But the fear for us in the CONUS was then into the GOM. Right now it doesn't appear that way and the Bay of Campeche just might see another hurricane.


Troughs coming off the east coast and a good ridge in the Carrib means "deflector shields up, Captain Kirk!" for Gulf Coast and SE US.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
storm w its looking like Igor is getting stronger can we at this point make any sort of determination with respect to a us landfall? could this thing pull an Isabel track?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Buoy Station 42059 - Eastern Caribbean



Link
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting atmoaggie:

(Best viewed full size...click)
Not bad.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 7544:
u can call thgis wishcasting but i hope 92l could go a little more north and avoid hati they dont need the rain and floods this year then it could go wnw or nw twoard the bahamas are conditions favoable in the bahamas area for 92l tia


What are you talking about? If it goes more north it will likely hit Hispanola.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
160. 7544
u can call thgis wishcasting but i hope 92l could go a little more north and avoid hati they dont need the rain and floods this year then it could go wnw or nw twoard the bahamas are conditions favoable in the bahamas area for 92l tia
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KanKunKid:


Caps lock is on.

sorry thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

(Best viewed full size...click)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I think L92 is going to be like Dean in 07. One of my friends were in Jamaica at the time and her roof of the house she wast staying at blew off!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting plywoodstatenative:
Anyone have buoy readings from the area of 92L


None of the buoys near 92L show any drop in pressure as of yet.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanes101:


ok when he mentioned a gut feeling due to spicy food and then you mentioned dry air, I could not help but laugh lol
What's to luagh about?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anyone have buoy readings from the area of 92L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
"Gut" = wishcasting usually.
True, true, true
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Herbertsbox:
It looks--from satellite images--that 92L has moved directly north, albeit not very far or fast. Am I missing something?


WELL HERE IN SAN JUAN THERES IS LIGHTING AND SHOWER RELATED TO 92L
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
146. Relix
Quoting Herbertsbox:
It looks--from satellite images--that 92L has moved directly north, albeit not very far or fast. Am I missing something?


Convection building north. Bands are all moving west.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
92L LOOK HUGE FOR SUCH A SMALL NEW BORN CARIBE BETTER PREPARE! SHE IS LIKE CAULIFLOWER RIGHT KNOW PUERTO RICO IS RIGHT NOW UNDER THUNDER STORMS!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Blog Update

Igor continues to intensify; 92L on the verge of becoming a tropical depression

Thanks MH09.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5626
This year it's either Brownsville or Bermuda so far...take yer pick.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
It looks--from satellite images (post 120)--that 92L has moved directly north, albeit not very far or fast. Am I missing something?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting washingtonian115:
Ew.Anyway I hope dry air comes to the rescue,and save us from the storm in the carribean!


ok when he mentioned a gut feeling due to spicy food and then you mentioned dry air, I could not help but laugh lol
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting tkeith:
I get these "Gut" feelings at times too...

(usually after a nite of spicey food and heavy drinking)
Ew.Anyway I hope dry air comes to the rescue,and save us from the storm in the carribean!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jeff9641:
This was everyone's fear on here all year and that's a system in the Caribbean.


got to track it. thats why we - well, some of us - enjoy the season.
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1975
From now on I am only looking at the GFS for what it does with Cape Verde storms

This year it has been pretty clear that the GFS does a fantastic job on those kinds of developments, but at the same time it is terrible with showing development close to home.

Of the 5 systems that have developed close to home, the GFS only picked out Hermine. It missed the rest of them, so it does not surprise me that the NHC feels development of 92L is high even though the GFS does not develop it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If I understand this correctly, some models outperform others. In essence, some appear to be more accurate than others. Is there a "model" that is the most reliable of all. Or are the results dependent on a storm by storm basis or from season to season for that matter.

I just see so much difference between the models when all the factors are the same.

Thanks in advance...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting BA:
92L is potentially very dangerous
oh wait, 92L is not going to be much
oh wait, 92L could be dangerous

...one of those has to be right


its just one of those tings
Member Since: August 22, 2006 Posts: 2 Comments: 1975
133. MZT
Oh well, gotta make myself do something useful on a Saturday. Hermine's remains have finally given us a nice overcast day here in N.C. after weeks of sun and dry air. Have painting to do... Probably won't be able to resist checking in for the 5PM though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Before everyone jumps to some conclusion I want to say that the possibility of a landfall in Canada or US can not be ruled out and there is Bermuda out there which I feel has a good chance of seeing some impacts, seeing that two storms have tracked just west of Bermuda this year. this system has already hit the Azores so nobody can say Igor is a fish.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
130. Vero1
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting help4u:
Igor is a fish!Troughs will keep everything off east coast and everything in gulf will head west into mexico.Pattern has been set all year. I here everyone say next week pattern will change,this has been going on for 6 weeks and no change.If anything the pattern looks more set in stone for last half of season for all fish and busy season in mexico.Another reason people pay no attention to forcast they heard it a million times and nothing happens.


I don't know if the pattern is "set in stone" however you may have a point about it may not change. Earlier, way earlier, I said almost the exact same thing about the negative NAO and the monster ridging we had for months not changing and not looking good for rucurvature of storms. I based this on a comment DRM made in a blog last year saying it's sometimes hard to change a months long pattern. Well he was right about that last year and the troughs kept coming. He said it later in that season than I made my prediction for this season. So you may be right. I hope they do all recurve harmlessly. But unfortunately anything getting into the Caribbean or closer to home U.S. can't recurve harmlessly. Which sucks. Still can't say the farthest north these can get is Mexico though.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Igor is really trying to get his convection back.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Jeff9641:


92L is more like bomb getting ready to ignite.


I imagine you said that in the voice of the late great Don LaFontaine.

seriously though its like some of you are trying to create a tagline for the next disaster movie. Just chill out a little
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
124. MZT
What's impressing me so far with 92L is that it's been building in all directions, even to the east a bit. Growing faster than it moves...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

Viewing: 173 - 123

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Overcast
72 °F
Overcast