Potentially dangerous 92L steadily developing; Igor nears hurricane strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on September 11, 2010

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A tropical disturbance (92L) over the Eastern Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico, is steadily organizing and appears likely to develop into a tropical depression by tonight or Sunday morning. Satellite loops show an impressive and expanding region of heavy thunderstorms, with good spiral banding and respectable upper-level outflow on all sides. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico shows that heavy rains are now affecting that island, but there is no rotation to the radar echoes evident. However, the rain bands are becoming more intense and more organized. San Juan, Puerto Rico reported a heavy rain squall at 8:44 am this morning, and radar estimates suggest two inches of rain fell in this squall just southeast of San Juan. Wind shear over 92L is low, 5 - 10 knots. The waters beneath are at near-record warmth, 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies to the north and west of 92L, and this dry air could interfere with development at times over the next few days.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 92L.

Track forecast for 92L
The disturbance is moving west-northwest at 11 mph, and steering currents favor a continuation of this motion for the next three days. Model support for development is scattered. The GFS and NOGAPS models do not develop 92L. The GFDL and ECMWF models predict development, with a track taking 92L into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. The HWRF model has a more northwesterly track, taking 92L over the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Cuba, but this model has been trending too far north in its tracks. I expect 92L will follow a path south of the islands, bringing it near or just south of Jamaica on Monday, then into the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. On this track, the southern Dominican Republic can expect heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches tonight through Monday morning; southern Haiti can expect similar rains Sunday through Monday, and Jamaica and the Cayman Islands can expect heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches Monday and Tuesday. Eastern Cuba will probably escape 92L's heaviest rains in this scenario (Figure 2.)

Intensity forecast for 92L
I can't find any reason to doubt this will be a tropical storm by Sunday or Monday, and potentially a Category 1 or 2 hurricane by Wednesday, if 92L avoids passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. The SHIPS model predicts wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, through the period, and makes 92L a Category 1 hurricane by Monday night. Water temperatures are certainly warm enough to support development. The main detriment to intensification is likely to be dry air, and 92L could wrap in some of the dry air to its northwest at times, slowing down development. The first Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into 92L is scheduled for Sunday afternoon, but there will be a research mission by the National Center for Atmospheric Research G-V jet today that will give us valuable information on 92L's large scale environment and potential for development.


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts from 92L from the 2am EDT Saturday run of the GFDL model. This model predicts most of 92L's heaviest rains will miss Haiti, but will affect Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan Peninsula. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Igor
Tropical Storm Igor is very close to hurricane strength, and appears destined to become a large and powerful major hurricane over the Central Atlantic in the days to come. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, waters are warm, 28°C, and Igor has moistened its environment enough to keep the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) at bay. Igor will track west under the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure for the next three days, then turn more to the west-northwest in response to the steering influence of a broad trough of low pressure moving across the Western Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. This should allow Igor to pass several hundred miles to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. In the longer range, Igor may be a threat to Bermuda, and has a slight chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast or Canada. Climatology shows that about 10% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at Igor's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are about 10% for Bermuda and 5% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the coming two weeks from the GFS model shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without affecting any land areas. The odds of Igor hitting land in the U.S. or Canada are probably close to their climatological 10% and 5% probabilities, respectively.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A new tropical wave (Invest 93L) emerged from the coast of Africa yesterday, and is already showing signs of organization. Most of the models predict 93L will develop into a tropical depression 2 - 4 days from now, and NHC is giving 93L a 30% chance of developing by Monday.

Next post
This may be my only post today; I'll have a new post Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting watchingnva:
some on here r way too uptight....geez
well get use to it,becuase I for one don't see it stopping for as long as this blog continues.
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672. IKE
Quoting angiest:


Was it true when he said that a number of hours ago?


Apparently to him it was. I'm not sold on it because the GFS...CMC and NOGAPS don't do much with it. Similar to Gaston and they were correct on it.
ECMWF keeps 92L at 1006 mb's crossing the Yucatan and then lowers it to 1003 mb's before hitting Mexico.
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Igor predicted to peak at 135 mph now.
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Quoting CybrTeddy:


Well, guess that's my problem aint it? Nothing for you to worry about. In fact, if your looking for a place without geek's I'm sorry to inform you that your in the wrong place, go to a NFL blog.


and all the rest of us weather geeks are here with you..

I did not get over 33,000 comments by "NOT" being here during the "season"
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TROPICAL STORM IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 PM AST SAT SEP 11 2010

...IGOR ALMOST A HURRICANE...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.4N 41.2W
ABOUT 1140 MI...1840 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
ABOUT 1360 MI...2185 KM E OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.38 INCHES

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Tropical Storm IGOR
...IGOR ALMOST A HURRICANE...
5:00 PM AST Sat Sep 11
Location: 17.4°N 41.2°W
Max sustained: 70 mph
Moving: W at 18 mph
Min pressure: 995 mb
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Igor= FIsh
92L=Not a GOW storm
93L= Total fish (what happened to the high??)
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Quoting TropicalBruce:
It's going to get quite late for systems like 93L ever to make it to the U.S. Igor likely won't do it and the cold fronts will only penetrate further south as we get into fall. Even the system over Africa behind 93L, despite its low latitude, probably will recurve as the westerlies start to dig deeper and deeper into the sub-tropics.

It's different with systems like 92L which develop close to home, but I'd be very surprised if anything originating in the eastern Atlantic makes a direct hit to the U.S. this year.

Call be fishcaster/wishcaster and there are exceptions to the above, but not this year IMO.
i agree 100% some on here just don't want to believe that.. they will try to throw the neg NAO is coming . a pattern change is on the way etc.. the US danger is if there is one is gonna come from the Caribbean or the Gulf. this summer pattern has been very persistant and will only amplify more as time goes by
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some on here r way too uptight....geez
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Quoting IKE:
SATURDAY 8 AM

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE EVOLVING IN THE CARIBBEAN.. IGOR TO CORRECT WEST ON GFS, EURO WITH TIME.


The first part is obvious.. as we are seeing an increase in the thunderstorms with the low pressure near 13.5 north and 62.5 west.
........

Joe...

The convection has died off where the 18Z shows the center for 92L. I don't think it's that obvious.


Was it true when he said that a number of hours ago?
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Though it's a bit off topic: While waiting for development in respect to the future hurricanes you may watch this video about flooding in southern Italy 9/9/2010. Really scaring and fascinating as well (watch it till the end). Unfortunately one person still seems to be missing.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Z7Kb7sq12mo&feature=player_embedded
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Quoting jurakantaino:
They wont send a HH today , still far for possing any danger to the U.S. if we in the islands want to know what is hitting us at the moment well,get yourself HH plane!!! Ha,ha.ha.

That made no sense. What are you trying to say?
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Quoting oceanblues32:
My first year i moved to souteast florida came frances and jeanne and it was a exhausting season with them one right after the other went without electricity for a total of 25 days in a 30 day span crazy to say the least i have a new found respect for electricity and i will always have plenty of charcoal on hand when the propane tanks give out!!!


that was one of my "Lessons learned" after Wilma and we had to cook all or meals on the grills... I had a charcole and a gas... and I ran out of charcole way too soon...
I learned to have lots of extra bags of charcole... also bought one of those little Coleman Stoves that run on propane cylinders...they can boil liquid, where my WEbber grill had a hard time bringing liquid to a rolling boil..

I made Lasagna in a big tray and cooked it in the smoker for a few hours.. it was great, especially when hungry for real food!
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659. Vero1
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Xtrap is not a model.


True but it is always correct. And you know that your are facing trouble when it is pointing directly at you prior to landfall.
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658. IKE
SATURDAY 8 AM

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE EVOLVING IN THE CARIBBEAN.. IGOR TO CORRECT WEST ON GFS, EURO WITH TIME.


The first part is obvious.. as we are seeing an increase in the thunderstorms with the low pressure near 13.5 north and 62.5 west.
........

Joe...

The convection has died off where the 18Z shows the center for 92L. I don't think it's that obvious.
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Quoting xcool:


92L MOVED WNW 12MPH
They wont send a HH today , still far for possing any danger to the U.S. if we in the islands want to know what is hitting us at the moment well,get yourself HH plane!!! Ha,ha.ha.
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PREDICT flight
heading home:

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Quoting galvestonhurricane:


No, it just makes you obsessed


Well, guess that's my problem aint it? Nothing for you to worry about. In fact, if your looking for a place without geek's I'm sorry to inform you that your in the wrong place, go to a NFL blog.
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:
Anyone on here 24/7 is a geek
don't you have something better else to do?.Maybe your the one that needs...oh never mind.
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It's going to get quite late for systems like 93L ever to make it to the U.S. Igor likely won't do it and the cold fronts will only penetrate further south as we get into fall. Even the system over Africa behind 93L, despite its low latitude, probably will recurve as the westerlies start to dig deeper and deeper into the sub-tropics.

It's different with systems like 92L which develop close to home, but I'd be very surprised if anything originating in the eastern Atlantic makes a direct hit to the U.S. this year.

Call be fishcaster/wishcaster and there are exceptions to the above, but not this year IMO.
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Quoting MZT:


If it's not a TD on the 5 PM advisory, I think the language will suggest that it is imminent.

When something is that close, they tend to have recon going in regularly. A "surprise" naming of a new storm can happen based on fresh flight data.


It's too funny...when I was on here 2 hours ago people were poo-pooing 92L...now they aren't...It's kinda ridiculous when you think about it. Everyone was getting their panties in a bunch about 93L while basically ignoring and downplaying this huge blob of low pressure and convection in the Caribbean. ::sigh:: I'll never understand it.
Member Since: August 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 290
Quoting galvestonhurricane:
Anyone on here 24/7 is a geek


Compared to playing video games 24/7, I'd say call me a geek. At least you are learning something and interacting with other humans. B Bye.
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649. xcool
SATURDAY 8 AM

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE EVOLVING IN THE CARIBBEAN.. IGOR TO CORRECT WEST ON GFS, EURO WITH TIME.


The first part is obvious.. as we are seeing an increase in the thunderstorms with the low pressure near 13.5 north and 62.5 west. This should move west northwest the next few days and slowly develop. The GFS does not develop this at all, interestingly enough, though I suspect it will be catching on.

The operational Euro looks out to lunch to me. It is not in line with its own ensembles on Igor ( its rapid recurve) and a look at the euro forecast on the hurricane ( they have there own tropical site, we see here at work) shows the core of the tracks about 150 miles southwest of the operational in 120 hours... not a big difference but enough that would make a difference between the trough catching the storm or perhaps missing it.

In some ways, this reminds me a bit of Gloria, which had a major cold air mass invade a week or so before hand.. with the trough trying to catch Gloria, missing and then allowing her to make her move back for her run. My point is that while at this time there is some reason to believe that this will recurve, there is just as much reason to think it wont, at least not till 70 west. IN fact a look at the ensembles.. no matter which nations you look at, show that the models are "seeing" the threat back to the southwest by the way their variance shows up on the charts. For instance, when the operational has a storm near Newfoundland, while the ensembles have lowest pressures and most argument ( variance) centered near 30 north and 70 west with pressures leaning southwest, and northeast, then basically it is creating a spray of options. I didnt see the JMA last night, but both the Canadian and UKMET show why this is not a done deal on their runs.

The system in the Caribbean has a "glibertish" look to it as far as eventual track, though by no means am I saying its a Gilbert. Igor will be a major atlantic hurricane, getting to cat 4 or 5 I think. This one is slower to evolve but may be very slow to move also, even though its path may be similar to Gilbert. Interestingly enough there are day 11 analog packages that are showing up that have Glibert date before hand on it in the overall pattern. In fact yesterdays number one analog was sep 23 1988, gilbert as around 10 days before. Ranked 5th was Sep 20 2005 with sep 29 2005 ranked 6th Rita developed on the 18th.

In back of Igor, another large disturbance is emerging off Africa and that should be Karl, assuming the Caribbean system beats it to the punch and gets named Julia first.


Notes and asides.

I dont like the ACE index. Its too subjective. Its sticks in my craw when I see storms like the 947 mb Alex, obiovsly a major hurricane, given only 85 kts. So my proposal and this is the 3rd major proposal I have, the others being the power rating and the naming criteria, is that we total up the pressures of all storms set against 1000mb and rate the season that way.

By that I mean a 945 mb huricane gets 55 points a 925 75 pts. Anything above 1000 mb named doesnt get any rating. By doing this we once again elinate subjectivity and get a good look at what the atmosphere was really up too.

In the Pacific, the scale would be set to 990 mb since the mean pressures are lower thanks for reading, ciao for now *****

by joe b
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15649
any of these storms look like they may threaten florida in any way
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Well it seems 12Z GFS doesn't have the major Caribbean hurricane that 0Z develops in about 2 weeks.

Although GFS still doesn't show 92L, looking at 500mb heights as Igor approaches the Islands in a few days, a weakness may open for whatever develops to move north. Certainly requires watching, and hopefully once there is a depression GFS will hold on to the system.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Seeing that we will most likely have two storms in the Atlantic what are the odds that both will be pulled into the ridge? I thought it was one or the other but not both.
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642. IKE
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I was watching the "Wavy Train" in Africa for a few days before 99L was designated. The wave that became 99L (if I'm remembering right) caught up to another wave ahead of it near the coast, and they appeared to spin around each other and merge, then exited the coast, where they became 99L. At that time, there still appeared to be two areas of spin, one north and 99L to the south. 99L headed west from there, and that northern spin is, I believe, what we're now seeing at about 30N, 50W.
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Quoting galvestonhurricane:
Anyone on here 24/7 is a geek


Guess I'm the king of geeks, I've checked on here almost once an hour since 2005 during the height of the season.
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639. beell
I'll take a guess on 15N 68.5W for the broad, oblong, mid-level center of 92L.

RGB Loop
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638. MZT
Quoting xcool:
92L could become a depression ANYTIME SOON.JMO


If it's not a TD on the 5 PM advisory, I think the language will suggest that it is imminent.

When something is that close, they tend to have recon going in regularly. A "surprise" naming of a new storm can happen based on fresh flight data.
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637. xcool
so rob what Latest news
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15649
Quoting stormpetrol:

Heat index here in Grand Cayman is 105, the sea is like a pond, great day for swimming, snorkeling and scuba.

Avid scuba diver for about 30 years; my best experience I'll remember forever was diving off Cayman and having a school of dolphins come up and start playing with us. Nice!
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Quoting stormpetrol:

The truth is sometimes very harsh, some just can't handle the truth, they can dish out but can't take, enough said!
You are speaking the truth...I love it...Thank You and God Bless You...:)
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Quoting xcool:
92L could become a depression ANYTIME SOON.JMO


That's not just your opinion, I think the NHC agrees with you.
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632. xcool


hmm
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15649
Quoting IHHEOTBS:


That model goes off the direction the storm is headed using the past 12 hour motion.


They know...they are just being funny....relax ....
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My first year i moved to souteast florida came frances and jeanne and it was a exhausting season with them one right after the other went without electricity for a total of 25 days in a 30 day span crazy to say the least i have a new found respect for electricity and i will always have plenty of charcoal on hand when the propane tanks give out!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
629. xcool
92L could become a depression ANYTIME SOON.JMO
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15649
Quoting washingtonian115:
Speaking of diving, today Is hotter than I expected today.Maybe he public pools are opened.

Heat index here in Grand Cayman is 105, the sea is like a pond, great day for swimming, snorkeling and scuba.
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627. xcool


92L MOVED WNW 12MPH
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15649
626. xcool
AL, 92, 2010091118, , BEST, 0, 146N, 657W, 25, 1009, DB
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15649
One of the things I enjoy most in this blog is watching the birth of a hurricane. It fascinates me to see a cluster of clouds with a low, turn into a TD, then a storm, then a hurricane. The banding of the clouds, sudden explosiveness at times of the tops, then the eye is a thing of beauty in it's own way....similar to watching a tornado develop in infant stages..everything has a beginning and ultimately an end....just my 2 cents today...I really appreciate the nice graphs, photos etc that help us all learn as nature unfolds it's beauty and sometimes..it's wrath!
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Quoting stormpetrol:

The truth is sometimes very harsh, some just can't handle the truth, they can dish out but can't take, enough said!
Speaking of diving, today Is hotter than I expected today.Maybe he public pools are opened.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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