Potentially dangerous 92L steadily developing; Igor nears hurricane strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on September 11, 2010

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A tropical disturbance (92L) over the Eastern Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico, is steadily organizing and appears likely to develop into a tropical depression by tonight or Sunday morning. Satellite loops show an impressive and expanding region of heavy thunderstorms, with good spiral banding and respectable upper-level outflow on all sides. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico shows that heavy rains are now affecting that island, but there is no rotation to the radar echoes evident. However, the rain bands are becoming more intense and more organized. San Juan, Puerto Rico reported a heavy rain squall at 8:44 am this morning, and radar estimates suggest two inches of rain fell in this squall just southeast of San Juan. Wind shear over 92L is low, 5 - 10 knots. The waters beneath are at near-record warmth, 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies to the north and west of 92L, and this dry air could interfere with development at times over the next few days.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 92L.

Track forecast for 92L
The disturbance is moving west-northwest at 11 mph, and steering currents favor a continuation of this motion for the next three days. Model support for development is scattered. The GFS and NOGAPS models do not develop 92L. The GFDL and ECMWF models predict development, with a track taking 92L into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. The HWRF model has a more northwesterly track, taking 92L over the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Cuba, but this model has been trending too far north in its tracks. I expect 92L will follow a path south of the islands, bringing it near or just south of Jamaica on Monday, then into the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. On this track, the southern Dominican Republic can expect heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches tonight through Monday morning; southern Haiti can expect similar rains Sunday through Monday, and Jamaica and the Cayman Islands can expect heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches Monday and Tuesday. Eastern Cuba will probably escape 92L's heaviest rains in this scenario (Figure 2.)

Intensity forecast for 92L
I can't find any reason to doubt this will be a tropical storm by Sunday or Monday, and potentially a Category 1 or 2 hurricane by Wednesday, if 92L avoids passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. The SHIPS model predicts wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, through the period, and makes 92L a Category 1 hurricane by Monday night. Water temperatures are certainly warm enough to support development. The main detriment to intensification is likely to be dry air, and 92L could wrap in some of the dry air to its northwest at times, slowing down development. The first Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into 92L is scheduled for Sunday afternoon, but there will be a research mission by the National Center for Atmospheric Research G-V jet today that will give us valuable information on 92L's large scale environment and potential for development.


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts from 92L from the 2am EDT Saturday run of the GFDL model. This model predicts most of 92L's heaviest rains will miss Haiti, but will affect Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan Peninsula. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Igor
Tropical Storm Igor is very close to hurricane strength, and appears destined to become a large and powerful major hurricane over the Central Atlantic in the days to come. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, waters are warm, 28°C, and Igor has moistened its environment enough to keep the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) at bay. Igor will track west under the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure for the next three days, then turn more to the west-northwest in response to the steering influence of a broad trough of low pressure moving across the Western Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. This should allow Igor to pass several hundred miles to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. In the longer range, Igor may be a threat to Bermuda, and has a slight chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast or Canada. Climatology shows that about 10% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at Igor's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are about 10% for Bermuda and 5% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the coming two weeks from the GFS model shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without affecting any land areas. The odds of Igor hitting land in the U.S. or Canada are probably close to their climatological 10% and 5% probabilities, respectively.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A new tropical wave (Invest 93L) emerged from the coast of Africa yesterday, and is already showing signs of organization. Most of the models predict 93L will develop into a tropical depression 2 - 4 days from now, and NHC is giving 93L a 30% chance of developing by Monday.

Next post
This may be my only post today; I'll have a new post Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting weatherlover94:


if you order it to become the first cat 5 and brings it to were i live the mid Atlantic make it a cat 2-3



but you be haveing cat 5 waves
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
Quoting kmanislander:
The track for 92L should flatten out pretty soon to just N of due West



Ok, thanks - I'm on that page.
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
Quoting Drakoen:


Could still see it gaining some more latitude with the large weakness along 70W


That could happen but 92L is very close to the Eastern periphery of the high that is off to the NW. The flow is to the SW in the Northern Caribbean which leads me to believe that 92L will not make a lot of progress farther N
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Quoting JLPR2:


ha! Now I feel lost LOL, been away watching a movie. :\
So we got Hurricane Igor, got a scary ring to it.

We got 9-4-2, that's a average season right?


Average is 10/6/2. But we've surpassed 2009 in terms of the number of hurricanes (2009 had 3, only 50% of the long-term average), with another (possibly two) well on the way.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21330
Quoting Tazmanian:



not sure yet but if he dos Igor will get a 24hr banned from the blog lol


if you order it to become the first cat 5 and brings it to were i live the mid Atlantic make it a cat 2-3
Member Since: September 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2232
1317. hercj
Quoting StormW:



The ridge that is there now, is supposed to remain in place for a bit. I haven't looked, but the NOGAPS may have it initialized too far south.

Senior, the NOGAPS is the navy model out of Monterey isn't it?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:



The ridge that is there now, is supposed to remain in place for a bit. I haven't looked, but the NOGAPS may have it initialized too far south.
Thanks
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:


Been to Negril...Couples.

Right now, I won't know until early a.m. if Jamaica will get a direct hit...however, Jamaica should feel some effect in about 42-48 hours based on current forward motion.


We actually live in Kingston now after many years in Negril :)
I am going into prep mode regardless, better safe than sorry!
Hopefully by morning we will know more but 92 seems ready to blow up all over Jamrock
Thanks Storm...
Tracy
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Quoting kmanislander:


Well, 92L is still not classified as a TD and the soonest I see that happening is late tomorrow near 75W.

So, by the time it reaches 19 N 81 W it should be no stronger than CAT 1 unless we see RI. Frankly, 92L seems to be a Yucatan storm. I don't see this heading up into the GOM.
Is there a chance for RI ?
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Quoting HouGalv08:
Right at about 15.5N and 68.5W. With all the heat deep in the water, this could get ugly real fast.
Could it shoot the gap,into GOM?
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Quoting caymanlurker:


Agreed though with SSTs so high and shear expected to be low, let's hope there is no explosion. PS vacation was good (not the same as Alaska last year) but good.


Any vacation is good LOL
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Quoting MoltenIce:
Still waiting for NHC to upgrade Igor to a 'cane, NRL has it on 65 knots.


Wont be until 11pm...
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
1309. Drakoen
Quoting kmanislander:
The track for 92L should flatten out pretty soon to just N of due West



Could still see it gaining some more latitude with the large weakness along 70W
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1308. Patrap
00z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Invest92
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)



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1307. hercj
Quoting StormW:


This will remove all doubt:

IR2 LOOP

You are truly right about that Senior. If it doesn't go now it never will I think.
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mode runs with 93L are way too far N
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
The track for 92L should flatten out pretty soon to just N of due West

Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Quoting StormW:


Evening kman!
To Storm Why does the model Nogaps take 92l s/w in the Boc.Is high pressure to build over the N/W gulf?Or is Nogaps a little loony as always
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1302. Patrap
92L

Rainbow

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1301. pottery
1:54 AM GMT on September 12, 2010
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
I don't believe I am the first to say it, but the season thus far has been somewhat defined by this same issue. Thanks, to the pervasive dry air.

Indeed.
It is the one factor that did not conform to the 'mega-season' forecasts.
(this might change, tomorrow LOL)
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24906
1300. Tazmanian
1:54 AM GMT on September 12, 2010
Quoting weatherlover94:


do you think it may hit the us?



not sure yet but if he dos Igor will get a 24hr banned from the blog lol
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
1299. caymanlurker
1:54 AM GMT on September 12, 2010
Quoting kmanislander:


I'm thinking CAT 1 at worst. I don't see this becoming a TD before late tomorrow assuming it can refire and hold on to the convection.

BUT, here we go again.



Agreed though with SSTs so high and shear expected to be low, let's hope there is no explosion. PS vacation was good (not the same as Alaska last year) but good.
Member Since: September 3, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 22
1298. Relix
1:53 AM GMT on September 12, 2010
Hey StormW, do you agree with 93L shooting out north like that?

I did read your blog (Every day!) but I don't know, maybe you changed your thinking.
Member Since: August 3, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 2741
1297. JLPR2
1:53 AM GMT on September 12, 2010
Looks like someone messed this up XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
1296. MoltenIce
1:52 AM GMT on September 12, 2010
Still waiting for NHC to upgrade Igor to a 'cane, NRL has it on 65 knots.
Member Since: August 11, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 784
1294. hurrizone
1:52 AM GMT on September 12, 2010
For the experts in this forum: CMC models shows eventually Igor and 93l gets close one to the other just when Igor is close of the northeast antillies.My question is :if CMC model is ok;exist the possibility of a fujiwhara effect on the systems? How was the effect of this in the islands and the future track?
Member Since: July 15, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 27
1293. weatherlover94
1:52 AM GMT on September 12, 2010
Quoting Tazmanian:



what a good boy Igor is


do you think it may hit the us?
Member Since: September 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2232
1292. kmanislander
1:52 AM GMT on September 12, 2010
Quoting moonlightcowboy:



Hey, Kman, expand on that one, plz. TIA


Well, 92L is still not classified as a TD and the soonest I see that happening is late tomorrow near 75W.

So, by the time it reaches 19 N 81 W it should be no stronger than CAT 1 unless we see RI. Frankly, 92L seems to be a Yucatan storm. I don't see this heading up into the GOM.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
1290. weatherlover94
1:51 AM GMT on September 12, 2010
Quoting Tazmanian:
Igor has done well its doing what i ask it to do

Link


i think in the last few frames Igor has dropped just south of due west WSW
Member Since: September 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2232
1289. Tazmanian
1:51 AM GMT on September 12, 2010
Quoting weatherlover94:


i think Igor in the last few frames have dropped just south of west



what a good boy Igor is
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
1288. PSLFLCaneVet
1:51 AM GMT on September 12, 2010
Quoting pottery:

That's all it needs, is some moist air soon...
I don't believe I am the first to say it, but the season thus far has been somewhat defined by this same issue. Thanks, to the pervasive dry air.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
1287. CybrTeddy
1:51 AM GMT on September 12, 2010
Yea, Igor's been a cane over a hour now.

Building a pretty large eye for such a small storm.

Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24576
1286. JLPR2
1:50 AM GMT on September 12, 2010
Quoting KoritheMan:


Definitely. It has been for a couple of hours.


ha! Now I feel lost LOL, been away watching a movie. :\
So we got Hurricane Igor, got a scary ring to it.

We got 9-4-2, that's a average season right?
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
1285. stormhank
1:50 AM GMT on September 12, 2010
evening Storm!! I read your synopsis earlier..Great Job as usual!! But wanted to ask 1 question and mind you Im not tryin to be funny either,,,but how many 0's in gazillion? lol
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1386
1284. washingtonian115
1:50 AM GMT on September 12, 2010
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
AL, 11, 2010091200, , BEST, 0, 176N, 419W, 65, 992, HU
Yep Igor is a hurricane.
Member Since: August 14, 2010 Posts: 10 Comments: 17823
1283. weatherlover94
1:49 AM GMT on September 12, 2010
Quoting Tazmanian:
Igor has done well its doing what i ask it to do

Link


i think Igor in the last few frames have dropped just south of west
Member Since: September 8, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 2232
1282. troy1993
1:49 AM GMT on September 12, 2010
Is it possible that Igor could take an Isabel like track..plus how are the steering mechanisms similar and different for Igor and Isabel?
Member Since: July 29, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 208
1281. moonlightcowboy
1:49 AM GMT on September 12, 2010
Quoting kmanislander:


I'm thinking CAT 1 at worst.



Hey, Kman, expand on that one, plz. TIA
Member Since: July 9, 2006 Posts: 184 Comments: 29610
1280. KoritheMan
1:48 AM GMT on September 12, 2010
Quoting JLPR2:
This one is a cane already, right?



Definitely. It has been for a couple of hours.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21330
1279. jonelu
1:48 AM GMT on September 12, 2010
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Storm, Drak, Levi or anyone...Too outlandish or possible?

Anything is possible. But so far from what ive been reading and seeing I believe it may pass between Jamaica and Cuba
Member Since: October 31, 2007 Posts: 2 Comments: 884
1278. Tazmanian
1:48 AM GMT on September 12, 2010
am now odering Igor too be come a cat 5 and it will do what i say
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454
1277. HouGalv08
1:47 AM GMT on September 12, 2010
Quoting kmanislander:


I'm thinking CAT 1 at worst. I don't see this becoming a TD before late tomorrow assuming it can refire and hold on to the convection.

BUT, here we go again.

Right at about 15.5N and 68.5W. With all the heat deep in the water, this could get ugly real fast.
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 370
1275. JLPR2
1:47 AM GMT on September 12, 2010
This one is a cane already, right?

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
1274. Stormchaser2007
1:46 AM GMT on September 12, 2010
AL, 11, 2010091200, , BEST, 0, 176N, 419W, 65, 992, HU
Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
1273. Tazmanian
1:45 AM GMT on September 12, 2010
Igor has done well its doing what i ask it to do

Link
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115454

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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