Potentially dangerous 92L steadily developing; Igor nears hurricane strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on September 11, 2010

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A tropical disturbance (92L) over the Eastern Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico, is steadily organizing and appears likely to develop into a tropical depression by tonight or Sunday morning. Satellite loops show an impressive and expanding region of heavy thunderstorms, with good spiral banding and respectable upper-level outflow on all sides. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico shows that heavy rains are now affecting that island, but there is no rotation to the radar echoes evident. However, the rain bands are becoming more intense and more organized. San Juan, Puerto Rico reported a heavy rain squall at 8:44 am this morning, and radar estimates suggest two inches of rain fell in this squall just southeast of San Juan. Wind shear over 92L is low, 5 - 10 knots. The waters beneath are at near-record warmth, 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies to the north and west of 92L, and this dry air could interfere with development at times over the next few days.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 92L.

Track forecast for 92L
The disturbance is moving west-northwest at 11 mph, and steering currents favor a continuation of this motion for the next three days. Model support for development is scattered. The GFS and NOGAPS models do not develop 92L. The GFDL and ECMWF models predict development, with a track taking 92L into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. The HWRF model has a more northwesterly track, taking 92L over the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Cuba, but this model has been trending too far north in its tracks. I expect 92L will follow a path south of the islands, bringing it near or just south of Jamaica on Monday, then into the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. On this track, the southern Dominican Republic can expect heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches tonight through Monday morning; southern Haiti can expect similar rains Sunday through Monday, and Jamaica and the Cayman Islands can expect heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches Monday and Tuesday. Eastern Cuba will probably escape 92L's heaviest rains in this scenario (Figure 2.)

Intensity forecast for 92L
I can't find any reason to doubt this will be a tropical storm by Sunday or Monday, and potentially a Category 1 or 2 hurricane by Wednesday, if 92L avoids passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. The SHIPS model predicts wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, through the period, and makes 92L a Category 1 hurricane by Monday night. Water temperatures are certainly warm enough to support development. The main detriment to intensification is likely to be dry air, and 92L could wrap in some of the dry air to its northwest at times, slowing down development. The first Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into 92L is scheduled for Sunday afternoon, but there will be a research mission by the National Center for Atmospheric Research G-V jet today that will give us valuable information on 92L's large scale environment and potential for development.


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts from 92L from the 2am EDT Saturday run of the GFDL model. This model predicts most of 92L's heaviest rains will miss Haiti, but will affect Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan Peninsula. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Igor
Tropical Storm Igor is very close to hurricane strength, and appears destined to become a large and powerful major hurricane over the Central Atlantic in the days to come. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, waters are warm, 28°C, and Igor has moistened its environment enough to keep the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) at bay. Igor will track west under the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure for the next three days, then turn more to the west-northwest in response to the steering influence of a broad trough of low pressure moving across the Western Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. This should allow Igor to pass several hundred miles to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. In the longer range, Igor may be a threat to Bermuda, and has a slight chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast or Canada. Climatology shows that about 10% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at Igor's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are about 10% for Bermuda and 5% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the coming two weeks from the GFS model shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without affecting any land areas. The odds of Igor hitting land in the U.S. or Canada are probably close to their climatological 10% and 5% probabilities, respectively.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A new tropical wave (Invest 93L) emerged from the coast of Africa yesterday, and is already showing signs of organization. Most of the models predict 93L will develop into a tropical depression 2 - 4 days from now, and NHC is giving 93L a 30% chance of developing by Monday.

Next post
This may be my only post today; I'll have a new post Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Taz,
"L" key broken again huh?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
what would 2010 hurricane season be with out one cat 5
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115505
Thought on 92L and the keys? If it trends north in the carribbean, it should encounter the mountains in Cuba, causing wakening (of whatever strength it might be). Am I correct?
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1370. pottery
Quoting PSLFLCaneVet:
Agree. This is why we all watch so closely. The Earth is a very dynamic place to live. Weather is of such great significance to us all, I find it sad, and maddening, to have so many comments here trivializing the discussion.

Well, dont take the 'trivial' too seriously.
Generally, the info is good.
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 25080
there is a 40% ch of one of are storms be comeing cat 5
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115505
Photobucket
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1367. Drakoen
Quoting kmanislander:


That could happen but 92L is very close to the Eastern periphery of the high that is off to the NW. The flow is to the SW in the Northern Caribbean which leads me to believe that 92L will not make a lot of progress farther N


I would have to disagree on its closeness to the high pressure center off the the northwest looking at the Dvorak and Water vapor imagery. 92L seems to be right within the weakness.
Member Since: October 28, 2006 Posts: 57 Comments: 31084
Quoting bassis:


dont sell your self short


Eh, I can't help it. I know I shouldn't.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21455
92L looks to have started a due West motion.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
IGOR: Why is it that the Ensemble Models and the 5 Day Forecast are so different from one another?
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Good evening all -- haven't had a lot of time to follow all the developments. Lots of information out there.

Looks like So Fla isn't in the bullseye yet, that's always a good thing.

I agree that Mexico/Texas has had their share, needs to go some where else!
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I appreciate all of the opinions I can get. Looks like it is sitting right over that high TCHP right now according to post #1335.


It's going to traverse even greater TCHP over the next couple of days, and could well pass over the warmest waters in the basin.

Potentially a very dangerous situation ahead.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21455
Kinda looks like 92L has feathered its nest.

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1357. bassis
Quoting KoritheMan:


Once the system fully consolidates, yes. There is little stopping it.

I know I'm not kman, but I assume you won't mind hearing my own opinion.


dont sell your self short
Member Since: September 8, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 423
1355. hercj
Quoting StormW:


Never knew that!

I took a picture of it sitting on the Ramp at Macdill in 2005. They did a joint op with NOAA toward the end of the year. Now we are talking about the Naval Research Lab right? Thats who runs that model, yes?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting KoritheMan:


Once the system fully consolidates, yes. There is little stopping it.

I know I'm not kman, but I assume you won't mind hearing my own opinion.
I appreciate all of the opinions I can get. Looks like it is sitting right over that high TCHP right now according to post #1335.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11579

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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Thanks for raining on my parade. LOL Thought you would say almost 0% chance but I should know better with this heat.


Sorry, LOL

Fortunately the Eastern Caribbean has held 92L in check.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Im still stickin with my 16 ,8 ,4 ..October could be active also..especially if we get more carribean and GOM formation of storms..I also feel the US east and Gulf coast will still get struck ,,especially as we head into October..Maybe I'll be wrong,,, As I said all season Ive been surfin for crow recipes lol
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Quoting KoritheMan:


+1

Would read again.


yea but they removed the comment lol

kind of ironic
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


you need to relax

I think everyone but you knows when he says we can beat 2005 for September, he isnt rooting for anything

Before long we wont be allowed to say anything on here without being called wishcasters or some kind. Get the stick out of your behind for once please


+1

Would read again.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21455
Quoting kmanislander:


Do bears %#&* in the woods ??

Yes there is a chance. The TCHP is off the scale.
Thanks for raining on my parade. LOL Thought you would say almost 0% chance but I should know better with this heat.
Member Since: October 9, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 8436
Quoting Stormchaser2007:



if mode runs are right this could be are 1st cat 5 all so if mode runs are it will take it right overe the hart of it all so it looke like its going too run overe the 1st part of it
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115505
Quoting stormhank:
Hi Kman how are you doing?? from lookin at models on 92L seems you could get some squally weather from it in a few days


Squalls I can handle LOL
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
1342. hercj
Quoting Patrap:
1328. hercj

Yeah,,..seems we all kinda ran into that guy along the way.

Mine was exceptional..at least to me.

But he augured in a F-4.

Damn going in a Phantom got to be a bad habit for a lot of Marine's Pat.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Considering 93L is on the verge of the developing that would take us to 10-4-2 and it probably developing into a hurricane and Igor into a major would put us at 10-5-3, and 92L acting up would makes go above average.
Once that 11th storm develops the downcasters will enter a phase of deep depression. LOL!


LOL true
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21455
Quoting pottery:

Indeed.
It is the one factor that did not conform to the 'mega-season' forecasts.
(this might change, tomorrow LOL)
Agree. This is why we all watch so closely. The Earth is a very dynamic place to live. Weather is of such great significance to us all, I find it sad, and maddening, to have so many comments here trivializing the discussion.
Member Since: July 23, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 12414
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Is there a chance for RI ?


Once the system fully consolidates, yes. There is little stopping it.

I know I'm not kman, but I assume you won't mind hearing my own opinion.
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 602 Comments: 21455
1337. hercj
Quoting StormW:


Yes...hasn't really been accurate, at least in my opinion, for about 3 seasons now.

Yeah that was my point. Do you know they have a WP3D just like NOAA's birds that they use to fly storms with? It is done very low key but they are out there.
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Hi Kman how are you doing?? from lookin at models on 92L seems you could get some squally weather from it in a few days
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Member Since: June 9, 2007 Posts: 4 Comments: 15950
Quoting tropicaltank:
Could it shoot the gap,into GOM?
See post 1304,1308, and 1309. Steering indicates a Yucatan storm, but as always, we'll need to watch it until it makes landfall.Steering influences can change.
Member Since: July 21, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 377
1333. Patrap
1328. hercj

Yeah,,..seems we all kinda ran into that guy along the way.

Mine was exceptional..at least to me.

But he augured in with a F-4.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1332. JLPR2
Quoting KoritheMan:


Average is 10/6/2. But we've surpassed 2009 in terms of the number of hurricanes (2009 had 3, only 50% of the long-term average), with another (possibly two) well on the way.


Considering 93L is on the verge of the developing that would take us to 10-4-2 and it probably developing into a hurricane and Igor into a major would put us at 10-5-3, and 92L acting up would makes go above average.
Once that 11th storm develops the downcasters will enter a phase of deep depression. LOL!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
I think the models are turning 93L north to soon.I think it will go a little further west before recurving.
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Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Is there a chance for RI ?


Do bears %#&* in the woods ??

Yes there is a chance. The TCHP is off the scale.
Member Since: August 19, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 15948
Please, please tell me this will not head to the southern tip of Texas! We have had Alex, Tropical depression 2 and now Hermine. I can't take a Julia.
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Quoting Patrap:
92L

Rainbow

....mlc re-sparklating,should lead to a impressive convection over night,probably forcing its way to the surface,i see no reason why we won't have a hurricane and atleast 2 td's by tomorrow evening imo
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Quoting weatherlover94:


if you order it to become the first cat 5 and brings it to were i live the mid Atlantic make it a cat 2-3



but you be haveing cat 5 waves
Member Since: May 21, 2006 Posts: 5091 Comments: 115505

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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