Potentially dangerous 92L steadily developing; Igor nears hurricane strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on September 11, 2010

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A tropical disturbance (92L) over the Eastern Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico, is steadily organizing and appears likely to develop into a tropical depression by tonight or Sunday morning. Satellite loops show an impressive and expanding region of heavy thunderstorms, with good spiral banding and respectable upper-level outflow on all sides. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico shows that heavy rains are now affecting that island, but there is no rotation to the radar echoes evident. However, the rain bands are becoming more intense and more organized. San Juan, Puerto Rico reported a heavy rain squall at 8:44 am this morning, and radar estimates suggest two inches of rain fell in this squall just southeast of San Juan. Wind shear over 92L is low, 5 - 10 knots. The waters beneath are at near-record warmth, 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies to the north and west of 92L, and this dry air could interfere with development at times over the next few days.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 92L.

Track forecast for 92L
The disturbance is moving west-northwest at 11 mph, and steering currents favor a continuation of this motion for the next three days. Model support for development is scattered. The GFS and NOGAPS models do not develop 92L. The GFDL and ECMWF models predict development, with a track taking 92L into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. The HWRF model has a more northwesterly track, taking 92L over the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Cuba, but this model has been trending too far north in its tracks. I expect 92L will follow a path south of the islands, bringing it near or just south of Jamaica on Monday, then into the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. On this track, the southern Dominican Republic can expect heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches tonight through Monday morning; southern Haiti can expect similar rains Sunday through Monday, and Jamaica and the Cayman Islands can expect heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches Monday and Tuesday. Eastern Cuba will probably escape 92L's heaviest rains in this scenario (Figure 2.)

Intensity forecast for 92L
I can't find any reason to doubt this will be a tropical storm by Sunday or Monday, and potentially a Category 1 or 2 hurricane by Wednesday, if 92L avoids passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. The SHIPS model predicts wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, through the period, and makes 92L a Category 1 hurricane by Monday night. Water temperatures are certainly warm enough to support development. The main detriment to intensification is likely to be dry air, and 92L could wrap in some of the dry air to its northwest at times, slowing down development. The first Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into 92L is scheduled for Sunday afternoon, but there will be a research mission by the National Center for Atmospheric Research G-V jet today that will give us valuable information on 92L's large scale environment and potential for development.


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts from 92L from the 2am EDT Saturday run of the GFDL model. This model predicts most of 92L's heaviest rains will miss Haiti, but will affect Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan Peninsula. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Igor
Tropical Storm Igor is very close to hurricane strength, and appears destined to become a large and powerful major hurricane over the Central Atlantic in the days to come. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, waters are warm, 28°C, and Igor has moistened its environment enough to keep the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) at bay. Igor will track west under the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure for the next three days, then turn more to the west-northwest in response to the steering influence of a broad trough of low pressure moving across the Western Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. This should allow Igor to pass several hundred miles to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. In the longer range, Igor may be a threat to Bermuda, and has a slight chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast or Canada. Climatology shows that about 10% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at Igor's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are about 10% for Bermuda and 5% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the coming two weeks from the GFS model shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without affecting any land areas. The odds of Igor hitting land in the U.S. or Canada are probably close to their climatological 10% and 5% probabilities, respectively.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A new tropical wave (Invest 93L) emerged from the coast of Africa yesterday, and is already showing signs of organization. Most of the models predict 93L will develop into a tropical depression 2 - 4 days from now, and NHC is giving 93L a 30% chance of developing by Monday.

Next post
This may be my only post today; I'll have a new post Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

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2523. surfmom
Because I care not only about my waters the Gomex I'm posting this link for my Carib Friends... looks like there's trouble in your paradise too--
Another Oil Disaster, This Time in the Caribbean Link
It's a question, of course, that has been repeated recently throughout Gulf Coast communities in the United States; in Michigan in July when a burst pipeline dumped 800,000 gallons of oil into the Kalamazoo River; and in scores of other places around the world where petroleum regularly leaks, gushes, explodes or burns -- without attracting all the media attention devoted to the BP disaster in our backyard.
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Quoting cat5hurricane:
Anyone know the most reliable, accurate model in the Atlantic...approximately where Igor is? Is it the GFS?

The Euro's.
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MZ089-120930-
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT SUN SEP 12 2010

.SYNOPSIS...COLD FRONT WILL CLIP THE FAR N GULF LATE TODAY INTO
MON. LOW PRES DISSIPAIN THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN WILL MOVE INTO THE
NW CARIBBEAN LATE WED AND THU...POSSIBLY AS A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...INCREASING WINDS AND SEAS IN THE FAR SOUTHERN GULF.
WEAK HIGH PRES WILL DOMINATE THE REMAINDER OF THE GULF THROUGH
THU.

If that high moves out of western GOM by Thursday it might pose a problem.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
2520. hydrus
Quoting RecordSeason:
Guatemala is getting pasted by yet another wave.

They were already at 100% to 200% above normal rainfall...
And October is a rainy month for them too..They get bad weather down there often. Bummer.
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Quoting lhwhelk:

I evacuated from Rita (a bust for us) and from Ike. When I came back from Ike and saw the damage a Cat 2 could do (I was on the "good" side and not in a storm surge location), I decided then that I will not even ride out a Cat 1. All it takes to let you see that is a tree falling on your house. "Amazing pics" aren't worth your life.


SOOO true! I couldn't evacuate for Rita and live about 100 miles up from the coast. I still had a tree on my house and three trees I had to cut down as they were growing horizontal to the ground after Rita. They never went back upright. Luckily, I don't have anymore trees close to the house if another one comes this way.
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Houston...

WARM UP GETS UNDERWAY TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE SLIDES ESE INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF.

ECMWF STILL AND NAM NOW DEVELOPING WAVE IN THE EASTERN GULF
ARRIVING ON THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE YUCATAN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GFS STILL A WEAKER SOLUTION ALONG THE SAME
LINES AND TIMING. ECMWF HAS TRENDED A BIT WEAKER AND FARTHER EAST
WITH THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WHILE THE GFS HAS
PUSHED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH FROM MEXICO ACROSS THE GULF.
STAY TUNED.

45

MARINE...
OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
SEAS IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS TURN TO THE EAST
ON MONDAY AND THEN EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. EAST SOUTHEAST
WINDS REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. LOW SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
FROM ABOUT 1 FOOT TO 3 FEET IN OFFSHORE AREAS BY THURSDAY.




Interesting ECMWF has been to strong with the ridges this tropical season and the GFS to weak lol

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Quoting wunderkidcayman:
92L has a COC and I still say TD 13 by 5pm

It definitely has more lower convergence than yesterday.
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
Quoting lhwhelk:

I evacuated from Rita (a bust for us) and from Ike. When I came back from Ike and saw the damage a Cat 2 could do (I was on the "good" side and not in a storm surge location), I decided then that I will not even ride out a Cat 1. All it takes to let you see that is a tree falling on your house. "Amazing pics" aren't worth your life.


+++A bazillion! :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
2511. ackee
ever since the NHC has lower 92L to 50% it has gotton better organized last night when they had at 60% it look rip werid
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Morning all. Quite a turnaround from yesterday on some stuff. 92L still at 50%, while we're looking at 100% and possible TS warnings for 93L....

The other thing that caught my eye this a.m. is no Twaves in the basin. This current system coming off Africa [the one likely to become Julia sometime today] is the second or third in a row to impact the CVIs as a TD or TS.... just an amazing difference from previous seasons when 3-5 Twaves could easily be located between Africa and Central America.

I'm also starting to lose my optimism about the early recurve on these long-track systems. Only one of them needs to miss a trough to bring major category winds/rain/surge to landfall anywhere from the NE Antilles to the NE US.... I'm starting to feel the tension of inevitability....
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92L has a COC and I still say TD 13 by 5pm
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716
Quoting Cantu5977:
San Antonio NWS Forecast Discussion

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WILL OCCUR
LATE IN THE WEEK. A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS TEXAS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AN AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AND BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE
ECMWF MOVES THIS FEATURE WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF REACHING THE
NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WEAKNESS IN THE
HEIGHT FIELD ACROSS TEXAS MAY ALLOW MOISTURE FROM THIS TROPICAL
SYSTEM TO ADVECT NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM BEARS
WATCHING.



Houston...

WARM UP GETS UNDERWAY TUESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY AS UPPER RIDGE SLIDES ESE INTO THE NORTHWEST GULF.

ECMWF STILL AND NAM NOW DEVELOPING WAVE IN THE EASTERN GULF
ARRIVING ON THE EASTERN SHORE OF THE YUCATAN WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. GFS STILL A WEAKER SOLUTION ALONG THE SAME
LINES AND TIMING. ECMWF HAS TRENDED A BIT WEAKER AND FARTHER EAST
WITH THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE NORTHERN GULF WHILE THE GFS HAS
PUSHED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE SOUTH FROM MEXICO ACROSS THE GULF.
STAY TUNED.

45

MARINE...
OVERALL NOT MUCH CHANGE IN THE FORECAST WITH LIGHT WINDS AND LOW
SEAS IN PLACE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. WINDS TURN TO THE EAST
ON MONDAY AND THEN EAST TO SOUTHEAST ON TUESDAY. EAST SOUTHEAST
WINDS REMAIN OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
AND INCREASE TO AROUND 10 KNOTS. LOW SEAS WILL GRADUALLY BUILD
FROM ABOUT 1 FOOT TO 3 FEET IN OFFSHORE AREAS BY THURSDAY.


Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
Quoting stillwaiting:
....appears to be forming one at the moment a td seems probable by 11pm tonight

Unless it losses it's convection... again.
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Quoting lhwhelk:
Re 2408: Hey surfmom and aislinnpaps-- I notice that neither one of you paid any attention to aislinnpaps comment this morning about "Earl." You both seemed to know which storm you were talking about, though! VBG
Love the information on this blog. I don't understand much of it, but I appreciate the weather nuts who put it into plain English for the rest of us, especially those of us living on the Gulf Coast.


Yeah, *VBG* I need to drink my coffee before trying to write something! I sooo appreciate the ones on here who help me to understand the real picture and not some of the hype you get both occasionally in here and from the media.
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2505. lhwhelk
Quoting stillwaiting:
...yepper,looking out my window at the gom,moved here in oct 08.....haven't seen any strong TC's come close to our area since i moved out here,i think a cat1 or 2 would be very interesting to ride out,would get some amazing pics for sure,a major comes and theirs know way in heck i wouldn't evacuate inland to my dads on palmer ranch!!!

I evacuated from Rita (a bust for us) and from Ike. When I came back from Ike and saw the damage a Cat 2 could do (I was on the "good" side and not in a storm surge location), I decided then that I will not even ride out a Cat 1. All it takes to let you see that is a tree falling on your house. "Amazing pics" aren't worth your life.
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2504. Patrap






Hurricane Preparation 2010
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2503. surfmom
Quoting stillwaiting:
....is that bath and racket club????
Up ST.Pete - beach there faces exactly like Siesta - so what happens there, happens here.

SeaSTEP
- Yikes -- a flea -- he was a flea out there..can you imagine his poooooor Mother...ahhh BoYZZ
This is my favorite vid so far to come from our Canes this year - Hurricane Earl Surf footage
Link
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Quoting Snowlover123:
92L still doesn't have a surface COC...
....appears to be forming one at the moment a td seems probable by 11pm tonight
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Quoting Patrap:
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Igor
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)





I dont like the way the models are starting to bend back to the west.
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Thanks stormw
Mother nature sure not making it easy this year.
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2499. Vero1
Plan of the Day for DC-8
DC-8 Plan of the Day
Saturday, September 11, 2010
DC-8 (Times in EDT)

Sunday, Sept 12 - Science Flight

1000 14Z Science telecon
1100 Power on
1200 16Z Tri-Agency Forecaster telecon
1230 PreFlight Brief
1330 Doors Close
1400 Take off
2300 Landing

Monday, Sept 13 – Possible Science Flight...
Plan of the Day for Global Hawk
Global Hawk Plan of the Day
Saturday, September 11, 2010
Global Hawk (Times in PDT)

Sunday, Sept 12 - Possible Science Flight
For flying PGI44 on Sunday-25 Hour Flight
0300 PIs Show at GHOC
0330 Engine Start
0430 Take off
(~9.5 hour transit)
0700 14Z Science telecon
0900 16Z Tri-Agency Forecaster...
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Good Morning Everyone!

Storm,
From the looks of that second trough it doesn't seem to be digging down.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting RecordSeason:
2474:

Uh, they had multiple readings in excess of 160kts sustained, and three readings in excess of 170kts sustained at flight level...


Any readings I saw that were that high were above the usual flight level, or were from dropsondes. The data may or may not have been accurate, but the NHC doesn't hold back on wind readings that high if their legitimate.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
San Antonio NWS Forecast Discussion

A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN WILL OCCUR
LATE IN THE WEEK. A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS TEXAS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. AN AREA OF
DISTURBED WEATHER LOCATED OVER THE EAST CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS
FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD AND BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE
ECMWF MOVES THIS FEATURE WESTWARD ACROSS THE GULF REACHING THE
NORTHEAST MEXICAN COAST BY SATURDAY NIGHT. THE WEAKNESS IN THE
HEIGHT FIELD ACROSS TEXAS MAY ALLOW MOISTURE FROM THIS TROPICAL
SYSTEM TO ADVECT NORTHWARD ACROSS SOUTH TEXAS. THIS SYSTEM BEARS
WATCHING.

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Quoting surfmom:
Hurri, Show the folks, next vacation maybe you can convince them to check out the Gomex....

Stillwaiting - Yooo! neighbor Heading out for a bit to paddle the buoys - any fishing today? Paddled Friday and the waters look good - great visibility too! So far we have been blessed by currents & I haven't seen any impacts from the BP OIL Spill disaster.....I'm watching very carefully ---

Pic is from a webcam a bit further north - but that's a rather good snap of what Stillwaiting can see from the window - LOL
...yepper,looking out my window at the gom,moved here in oct 08.....haven't seen any strong TC's come close to our area since i moved out here,i think a cat1 or 2 would be very interesting to ride out,would get some amazing pics for sure,a major comes and theirs know way in heck i wouldn't evacuate inland to my dads on palmer ranch!!!
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SmileyCentral.com

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
Quoting Patrap:
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Igor
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)






If i was in Bermuda I would be really concerned about this storm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2491. Patrap
12z Early Cycle NHC model tracks
Igor
Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)




Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)




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2489. Patrap
Igor Floater - Rainbow Color Infrared Loop

TFP's are available
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2487. Patrap
Igor

Rainbow






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92L still doesn't have a surface COC...
Member Since: April 1, 2010 Posts: 9 Comments: 2699
2485. Seastep
Hey surfmom.

Saw this the other day and thought of you.

Big enough for you? ;)

Link
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Quoting surfmom:
LOL - ahhh noo
We're LAKE DE MEXICO this morning, water 89 degrees
....is that bath and racket club????
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2483. Patrap
92L rainbow

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Quoting StormW:
HURRICANE IGOR / 92L / 93L SYNOPSIS SEP 12, 2010 ISSUED 9:30 A.M. EDTthanx Storm
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2481. Boca
Quoting atmoaggie:
Morning: 92 L looks good. Should be a TD by tonight.
Evening: 92 L just lost all convection and is dying in the face of dry air. RIP.

Wash, rinse, repeat.

(really, this is like getting excited by the diurnal cycle of surface pressure at a buoy.)

So what's it going to do? I'm with the NHC, giving it a 50%.


Totally agree. I've heard that we are not going to ID butterfly wing movement over Africa and start with letters from the Chinese alphabet. Too much is too much.
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Quoting StormW:
HURRICANE IGOR / 92L / 93L SYNOPSIS SEP 12, 2010 ISSUED 9:30 A.M. EDT


Nice update StormW, thank you.
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2479. lhwhelk
Re 2408: Hey surfmom and aislinnpaps-- I notice that neither one of you paid any attention to aislinnpaps comment this morning about "Earl." You both seemed to know which storm you were talking about, though! VBG
Love the information on this blog. I don't understand much of it, but I appreciate the weather nuts who put it into plain English for the rest of us, especially those of us living on the Gulf Coast.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting StormW:
HURRICANE IGOR / 92L / 93L SYNOPSIS SEP 12, 2010 ISSUED 9:30 A.M. EDT

Thanks Storm.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5725
2477. surfmom
Quoting hurristat:
Wow, that's pretty nice :D
Hurri, Show the folks, next vacation maybe you can convince them to check out the Gomex....

Stillwaiting - Yooo! neighbor Heading out for a bit to paddle the buoys - any fishing today? Paddled Friday and the waters look good - great visibility too! So far we have been blessed by currents & I haven't seen any impacts from the BP OIL Spill disaster.....I'm watching very carefully ---

Pic is from a webcam a bit further north - but that's a rather good snap of what Stillwaiting can see from the window - LOL
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
2476. mbjjm
An interesting part of the Discussion on Crown Weather Services Tropical Weather Discussion

"Now comes the million dollar question, where will Igor eventually track?? As of this morning, Igor is tracking to the west at a forward speed of 17 to 18 mph underneath a ridge of high pressure to the north. This ridge of high pressure is expected to keep Igor on this westward track for at least the next 2 to 3 days. After about Tuesday, this ridge of high pressure is forecast to erode thanks to a trough of low pressure over the western Atlantic. This will cause Igor to turn more to the west-northwest and northwest starting on Wednesday.

Looking at the long term prospects for Igor, some of the model guidance like the European model have shifted much further west in its forecast track and show a track very similar to Hurricane Earl. Other guidance like the GFS model forecast a curve into the open Atlantic around 65 West Longitude or so. The shift westward forecast by the European model seems realistic. The reason why is because we are shifting into a weather pattern that features high pressure building over the northwest Atlantic. In addition, the overall weather pattern over the next week to 10 days features a polar vortex that will dive into Canada causing strong blocking over Alaska. This type of pattern tells me that we should have even stronger high pressure build over southeastern Canada and the northeast US.

So, I suspect and fear that we will see further west adjustments in the forecast track of Igor and the track could end up being very similar to that of Hurricane Earl with a curve north and northeast near or just west of 70 West Longitude. At the very least, Igor poses an eventual threat to Bermuda and maybe the US East Coast and Canadian Maritimes. It should be added that the latest Canadian model is similar to the European model and forecasts Igor to reach 70 West Longitude before curving out into the open Atlantic.

So, in conclusion, Igor will be a very large and very intense hurricane this week and we will have to continue to keep a very close eye on it. "
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2475. help4u
Reliable models have been wrong all season.Pattern change for 6 weeks and nothing happened.
Member Since: September 18, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 1301
Quoting RecordSeason:
2422:

I'm telling yah, the NHC is low-balling the intensity right now.

they are hoping it will die down some before it starts to get close to land, so they never have to tell anyone how strong it is.

This even happened with Earl, as they had 177kts sustained flight level winds, which should have translated to cat5 even at the surface. They just figured not tell anyone and hope it don't hit....


That last statement is factually incorrect.
Member Since: August 2, 2007 Posts: 19 Comments: 19234
ok so at 11 Igor should be cat 2 atleast and TD 12 35mph and at 1pm TWO 92L should be back up to red and at 5 Igor sould be a cat 3 TD 12 should be or near TS and TD 13 forms
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 12716

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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