Potentially dangerous 92L steadily developing; Igor nears hurricane strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on September 11, 2010

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A tropical disturbance (92L) over the Eastern Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico, is steadily organizing and appears likely to develop into a tropical depression by tonight or Sunday morning. Satellite loops show an impressive and expanding region of heavy thunderstorms, with good spiral banding and respectable upper-level outflow on all sides. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico shows that heavy rains are now affecting that island, but there is no rotation to the radar echoes evident. However, the rain bands are becoming more intense and more organized. San Juan, Puerto Rico reported a heavy rain squall at 8:44 am this morning, and radar estimates suggest two inches of rain fell in this squall just southeast of San Juan. Wind shear over 92L is low, 5 - 10 knots. The waters beneath are at near-record warmth, 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies to the north and west of 92L, and this dry air could interfere with development at times over the next few days.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 92L.

Track forecast for 92L
The disturbance is moving west-northwest at 11 mph, and steering currents favor a continuation of this motion for the next three days. Model support for development is scattered. The GFS and NOGAPS models do not develop 92L. The GFDL and ECMWF models predict development, with a track taking 92L into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. The HWRF model has a more northwesterly track, taking 92L over the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Cuba, but this model has been trending too far north in its tracks. I expect 92L will follow a path south of the islands, bringing it near or just south of Jamaica on Monday, then into the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. On this track, the southern Dominican Republic can expect heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches tonight through Monday morning; southern Haiti can expect similar rains Sunday through Monday, and Jamaica and the Cayman Islands can expect heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches Monday and Tuesday. Eastern Cuba will probably escape 92L's heaviest rains in this scenario (Figure 2.)

Intensity forecast for 92L
I can't find any reason to doubt this will be a tropical storm by Sunday or Monday, and potentially a Category 1 or 2 hurricane by Wednesday, if 92L avoids passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. The SHIPS model predicts wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, through the period, and makes 92L a Category 1 hurricane by Monday night. Water temperatures are certainly warm enough to support development. The main detriment to intensification is likely to be dry air, and 92L could wrap in some of the dry air to its northwest at times, slowing down development. The first Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into 92L is scheduled for Sunday afternoon, but there will be a research mission by the National Center for Atmospheric Research G-V jet today that will give us valuable information on 92L's large scale environment and potential for development.


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts from 92L from the 2am EDT Saturday run of the GFDL model. This model predicts most of 92L's heaviest rains will miss Haiti, but will affect Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan Peninsula. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Igor
Tropical Storm Igor is very close to hurricane strength, and appears destined to become a large and powerful major hurricane over the Central Atlantic in the days to come. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, waters are warm, 28°C, and Igor has moistened its environment enough to keep the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) at bay. Igor will track west under the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure for the next three days, then turn more to the west-northwest in response to the steering influence of a broad trough of low pressure moving across the Western Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. This should allow Igor to pass several hundred miles to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. In the longer range, Igor may be a threat to Bermuda, and has a slight chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast or Canada. Climatology shows that about 10% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at Igor's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are about 10% for Bermuda and 5% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the coming two weeks from the GFS model shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without affecting any land areas. The odds of Igor hitting land in the U.S. or Canada are probably close to their climatological 10% and 5% probabilities, respectively.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A new tropical wave (Invest 93L) emerged from the coast of Africa yesterday, and is already showing signs of organization. Most of the models predict 93L will develop into a tropical depression 2 - 4 days from now, and NHC is giving 93L a 30% chance of developing by Monday.

Next post
This may be my only post today; I'll have a new post Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

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1773. angiest
Quoting weatherxtreme:
No, didn't know it was going near Bermuda. That isn't good. Hopefully it will be just a FISH!


GFS has it taking 2 days or so to clear Bermuda.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting thewindman:
What happened to the "experts" saying La Nina will steer storms towards the US

Guess what guys NOT ONE LANDFALL IN THE U.S.

I guess that makes me a troll for being right


Tell that to Texas. Hermine was most certainly a landfalling system in the U.S.
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Quoting swflurker:
Jodie might think that wave was a direct hit?


no she doesn't.....but i don't claim to know about weather up the northeast coast.....have no idea how these storms affect them.....just know it sucks down here to go through it and anyone who hasn't been through a storm firsthand has no idea how devastating it is.
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Evenin Maam....I not pick on TEXAS!!


Awe thanks trauma. And good evening. :) I'll be happy if nothing hits the U.S. at all. I think that's wishcasting but oh well. Lol.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 117
1769. mbjjm
Quoting gordydunnot:
All I can say is look at 92l . Little shear, super warm waters, high pressure aloft, satellite shows apparent spin what's wrong.


It's the Jamaica effect. Since 1988 Gilbert and recently Hurricane Ivan, which at the last minute made a wobble keeping it 50 miles away. Jamaica has not been hit by an hurricane despite been threated every year.Storms tend to weaken , stay away or strengthen after

Barbados is similar in the middle of the hurricane has had no hurricanes in many years.
Member Since: August 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 310
1768. EricSFL
Quoting KoritheMan:


Must. Resist. Commenting. lol :P


Why can you not comment on it? Your opinion is always appreciated.
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Quoting jodi4lsu:


thanks....enjoying some good fishing in the marshes here these days!!! hope we don't have any ugly storms flare up and ruin it!!!


Amen to that!!
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No, didn't know it was going near Bermuda. That isn't good. Hopefully it will be just a FISH!
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1765. xcool
angiest /i call itt bull
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Quoting mbjjm:
>


I don't have to do that..Mother nature is doing a fair job at that:)


92L will affect Mexico, not the US. None of the suite of models show a us landfall.

92L models


I think Brownsville is close enough to the model outliers to possibly get hit at the time. You have to remember that things could shift a few hundred miles quite quickly. So yes Texas could get in the cone of uncertainty quite quickly. If your up in Beaumont you probably will be protected by the high set-up.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


maybe said person would not have to say anything if people like you would actually show common sense in more than 5% of your comments.


Um, Kerry is a troll, it's why he has no common sense.
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1762. angiest
Yesterday this Caribbean storm looked like it might hook back to the west coast of Florida, but this run is further west...

Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Jodie might think that wave was a direct hit?
Quoting Legion:


I remember someone being killed last year at Arcadia National Park in Maine from a rogue wave from Hurricane Bill.
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1760. leo305
Quoting EricSFL:


Dare I say "cloud seeding" or something...? j/k but you never know.


the excessive cloud cover during the day didn't allow heating, so there isn't much instability to fuel a tropical system like 92L
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1759. xcool
EricSFL::))
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Well Spoken!!!!......Good looking Red in the Pic too!!


thanks....enjoying some good fishing in the marshes here these days!!! hope we don't have any ugly storms flare up and ruin it!!!
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Quoting EricSFL:


Dare I say "cloud seeding" or something...? j/k but you never know.


Must. Resist. Commenting. lol :P
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1756. xcool
LATEST ON IGOR AND CARIBBEAN.

The 12z model runs trended west a bit if one looks at all the models. The European operational is back to near 65 west at its furthest west point and represents the east side of the global spread, along with the GFS. On the west side, the JMA, available on your pro site.. the hurricane at 25 north, 75 west and nowhere to go but into the US given the Banana ridge surface and aloft north of it.

If you go the ECMWF ensemble site, made public, it sums up perfectly the problem with its 240 hour map... enough members coming west to imply the model is saying what I am saying... that this is not a done deal, and like many great Atlantic storms that threaten the east coast, its a matter of negotiating the atlantic trough next Wednesday and Thursday.

But models love to recurve storms because that is what they are supposed to do ( recurve) the reason I am not buying this as quick as most, is the MJO idea of a more favored pattern toward the US coast with time. Also sticking out like a soar thumb on the euro is the idea that the system in the Caribbean is likely to slow, and be further northeast than its operational model says, which is a track into Mexico south of Tampico.

As for the JMA, it has scored many coups in the past. While I dont put it into the Guru category as I do the Euro, once it locks on, It has been insistent, along with the UKMET, that this track is further south and misses the first recurve. BTW the Euro has not locked onto Igor yet as it is moving its track with each run, so far the range has been between 60 and 70 on the operational, with the JMA always implying the hit on the US coast.

Again, I want my readers to understand, I am not model cherry picking here, though I know it seems like it. What I am doing is telling you why I am leaning, like Earl, to the westward option, If you recall, at first I thought it would be Fiona that got back to the coast, but the point was that one of the two was going to threaten given the pattern. Its the same here In 10 days, something should be close to the US east coast, given the pattern. Right now I think its Igor.. Besides here is another factor that has not been looked at. So far storms with vowel like names have made impacts ( okay, this is tongue in cheek so dont start getting mad) Alex, Earl, Hermine ( P ronounced Er-Mean). It doesnt meant the consonants cant get in, it means the vowels are though, so far.

Opal, Ophelia, 95,2005 Look out for OTTO.

We have an Otto's here in State College, its a pub.. Otto sounds a robust name.. I wouldnt be embarrassed to have to evacuate because of an Otto.

The system in the Caribbean is not what you might think, What looks to mid level center is out in front of any low level center. Still its bigger and better looking than yesterday and I am confident my ideas on this getting to be a named storm are good.

Notes and asides Thunderstorms are hitting Tuscaloosa Alabama now, and this favors PSU. A wet field and cooler evening is in the favor of the Lions, in my opinion. Of course, Bama may be so good it doesnt make a difference, but I am a big Joe Paterno fan and as long as he is coach, I will find a way to root for PSU. BTW, while I have publicly distanced myself from their global warming stance, their EWALL site is

great. One has to take things as they come. The PSU ewall shows the embers of the fire that burned so bright as the number one meteo school in the nation are still there, and I will direct my readers to that site without hesitation. While I have you here, remember its not my disagreement with Dr. Mann about AGW that drove me over the edge, it was the idea that fighting climate change legislation was a moral and ethical lapse. I think its a moral and ethical lapse to shove down the throat of a free people legislation based on an idea which may fall off the face of the earth as fast as the drop of the enso 3.4 water temps and the PDO ( which it will)

I wish I had the moveable type to display the idea above. Maybe if I dedicate church tomorrow to that, a miracle will occur and I will be able to have it so I can show you these options without you having to go all over the place. At the very least, on a Saturday, with everyone watching football, you know where my heart is. as always, in what I was made to do.. the weather.

ciao for now

by joe b
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Quoting gordydunnot:
All I can say is look at 92l . Little shear, super warm waters, high pressure aloft, satellite shows apparent spin what's wrong.


It lacks Convergence completely.......nothing truly at the surface yet....But, that can change really really fast.


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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Ok ya got me there. LOL.


Evenin Maam....I not pick on TEXAS!!
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Awe Tampa not you too? Lol. Our NWS at Lake Charles said the high should protect us but it will have to not move and stay strong for about a week. And 92l should be watched closely. Troughs have not been our friends in recent years past. Which trough do you see may cause concern?


No troughs in the near future too strong right now. Ask the weather gods in two weeks...you may not want to hear the answer:)
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Quoting Grecojdw:


I don't have to do that..Mother nature is doing a fair job at that:)


Ok ya got me there. LOL.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 117
Quoting gordydunnot:
All I can say is look at 92l . Little shear, super warm waters, high pressure aloft, satellite shows apparent spin what's wrong.


It means we don't know everything about tropical cyclogenesis yet. There is still much research to be done in this area.

It's why I love this field. It would be incredibly boring if we knew everything.
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1748. EricSFL
Quoting gordydunnot:
All I can say is look at 92l . Little shear, super warm waters, high pressure aloft, satellite shows apparent spin what's wrong.


Dare I say "cloud seeding" or something...? j/k but you never know.
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Quoting btwntx08:

DONT FEED THE TROLL WINDJERK IS A haha he wouldnt care a cat 5 hits him ha that was nada either good luck windtrollman


my mistake....should have a sign "don't feed the trolls"
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Quoting btwntx08:

DONT FEED THE TROLL WINDJERK IS A haha he wouldnt care a cat 5 hits him ha that was nada either good luck windtrollman


LMFAO!!
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1745. angiest
This is at least the second time in 24 hours GFS has developed a Caribbean storm out at 2 weeks.

Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
That's what it looks like at this point(FISH) but who knows with these storms. I remember Floyd in 1999, nearly brushed us, scared us like crazy here in NE FL at last minute.
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:

LMAOUITB
Now trolls have names


Trollcaster definition:
An insecure person on a blog who would rather call others bigoted words such as troll, rather than engage in meaningful debate when an alternative view is presented. This in no way implies that real trolls don't exist, only that they are not under every rock.


maybe said person would not have to say anything if people like you would actually show common sense in more than 5% of your comments.
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1742. xcool
btwntx08 lmao crazy fool lol
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1741. mbjjm
>


I don't have to do that..Mother nature is doing a fair job at that:)


92L will affect Mexico, not the US. None of the suite of models show a us landfall.

92L models
Member Since: August 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 310
Quoting jodi4lsu:


and what a tragedy....anytime human life is lost because of a storm, that is why i wonder about windman.....he sounds so disappointed about no landfall this season. once a person has lived through storms like andrew, katrina, rita, gustav, and others it kinda puts things in perspective.....i had the unfortunate task of working during these storms (as a paramedic in some, nurse in others) and I can personally tell anyone, no landfall is a good season!!


Well Spoken!!!!......Good looking Red in the Pic too!!
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Yep and it takes it over the Yucatan now.


There is a very strong high pressure set up right now that should divert the majority of systems toward N.Mexico and Texas currently. There really has to be a peculiar high set up to steer hurricanes this far North into the Central and Eastern Gulf Coast. I think right now 92L shouldn't get as far East as Houston because of the Dominance of high pressure. If that storm existed let say around September 26 or so, then people up here like me then should worry.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Actually i favor 92L moving into Central Texas to the TX/La border. The Trough should move 92L north more than the models are showing currently. Models don't have a good grasp of 92L until it develops if it ever does.


Awe Tampa not you too? Lol. Our NWS at Lake Charles said the high should protect us but it will have to not move and stay strong for about a week. And 92l should be watched closely. Troughs have not been our friends in recent years past. Which trough do you see may cause concern?
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 117
All I can say is look at 92l . Little shear, super warm waters, high pressure aloft, satellite shows apparent spin what's wrong.
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:

LMAOUITB
Now trolls have names


Trollcaster definition:
An insecure person on a blog who would rather call others bigoted words such as troll, rather than engage in meaningful debate when an alternative view is presented. This in no way implies that real trolls don't exist, only that they are not under every rock.


I give up...
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Quoting Legion:


I remember someone being killed last year at Arcadia National Park in Maine from a rogue wave from Hurricane Bill.


and what a tragedy....anytime human life is lost because of a storm, that is why i wonder about windman.....he sounds so disappointed about no landfall this season. once a person has lived through storms like andrew, katrina, rita, gustav, and others it kinda puts things in perspective.....i had the unfortunate task of working during these storms (as a paramedic in some, nurse in others) and I can personally tell anyone, no landfall is a good season!!
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1732. xcool
angiest .lol
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Lol. You still pickin' on Texas?


I don't have to do that..Mother nature is doing a fair job at that:)
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1730. angiest
Quoting TampaSpin:


Actually i favor 92L moving into Central Texas to the TX/La border. The Trough should move 92L north more than the models are showing currently. Models don't have a good grasp of 92L until it develops if it ever does.


Gee thanks. ;P
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
1729. xcool
Actually TampaSpin cool man
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Yes, hopefully bermuda will be ok hopefully it is just a full on FISH and nothing more.
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Tampaspin it seems these systems are getting harder to predict or even forecast. I admit it must not be easy being a tropical Met., even if I was one, which is not even close.
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Quoting angiest:
At 228 hours, GFS is developing a Caribbean system again:



Yep and it takes it over the Yucatan now.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 117
1725. xcool
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Lol. You still pickin' on Texas?


Actually i favor 92L moving into Central Texas to the TX/La border. The Trough should move 92L north more than the models are showing currently. Models don't have a good grasp of 92L until it develops if it ever does.
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1723. angiest
Quoting weatherxtreme:
Igor...here FISHY...FISHY


GFS has him over Bermuda for a couple of days on the 0Z run...
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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