Potentially dangerous 92L steadily developing; Igor nears hurricane strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on September 11, 2010

Share this Blog
0
+

A tropical disturbance (92L) over the Eastern Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico, is steadily organizing and appears likely to develop into a tropical depression by tonight or Sunday morning. Satellite loops show an impressive and expanding region of heavy thunderstorms, with good spiral banding and respectable upper-level outflow on all sides. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico shows that heavy rains are now affecting that island, but there is no rotation to the radar echoes evident. However, the rain bands are becoming more intense and more organized. San Juan, Puerto Rico reported a heavy rain squall at 8:44 am this morning, and radar estimates suggest two inches of rain fell in this squall just southeast of San Juan. Wind shear over 92L is low, 5 - 10 knots. The waters beneath are at near-record warmth, 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies to the north and west of 92L, and this dry air could interfere with development at times over the next few days.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 92L.

Track forecast for 92L
The disturbance is moving west-northwest at 11 mph, and steering currents favor a continuation of this motion for the next three days. Model support for development is scattered. The GFS and NOGAPS models do not develop 92L. The GFDL and ECMWF models predict development, with a track taking 92L into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. The HWRF model has a more northwesterly track, taking 92L over the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Cuba, but this model has been trending too far north in its tracks. I expect 92L will follow a path south of the islands, bringing it near or just south of Jamaica on Monday, then into the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. On this track, the southern Dominican Republic can expect heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches tonight through Monday morning; southern Haiti can expect similar rains Sunday through Monday, and Jamaica and the Cayman Islands can expect heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches Monday and Tuesday. Eastern Cuba will probably escape 92L's heaviest rains in this scenario (Figure 2.)

Intensity forecast for 92L
I can't find any reason to doubt this will be a tropical storm by Sunday or Monday, and potentially a Category 1 or 2 hurricane by Wednesday, if 92L avoids passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. The SHIPS model predicts wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, through the period, and makes 92L a Category 1 hurricane by Monday night. Water temperatures are certainly warm enough to support development. The main detriment to intensification is likely to be dry air, and 92L could wrap in some of the dry air to its northwest at times, slowing down development. The first Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into 92L is scheduled for Sunday afternoon, but there will be a research mission by the National Center for Atmospheric Research G-V jet today that will give us valuable information on 92L's large scale environment and potential for development.


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts from 92L from the 2am EDT Saturday run of the GFDL model. This model predicts most of 92L's heaviest rains will miss Haiti, but will affect Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan Peninsula. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Igor
Tropical Storm Igor is very close to hurricane strength, and appears destined to become a large and powerful major hurricane over the Central Atlantic in the days to come. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, waters are warm, 28°C, and Igor has moistened its environment enough to keep the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) at bay. Igor will track west under the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure for the next three days, then turn more to the west-northwest in response to the steering influence of a broad trough of low pressure moving across the Western Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. This should allow Igor to pass several hundred miles to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. In the longer range, Igor may be a threat to Bermuda, and has a slight chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast or Canada. Climatology shows that about 10% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at Igor's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are about 10% for Bermuda and 5% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the coming two weeks from the GFS model shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without affecting any land areas. The odds of Igor hitting land in the U.S. or Canada are probably close to their climatological 10% and 5% probabilities, respectively.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A new tropical wave (Invest 93L) emerged from the coast of Africa yesterday, and is already showing signs of organization. Most of the models predict 93L will develop into a tropical depression 2 - 4 days from now, and NHC is giving 93L a 30% chance of developing by Monday.

Next post
This may be my only post today; I'll have a new post Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

Reader Comments

Comments will take a few seconds to appear.

Post Your Comments

Please sign in to post comments.

or Join

Not only will you be able to leave comments on this blog, but you'll also have the ability to upload and share your photos in our Wunder Photos section.

Display: 0, 50, 100, 200 Sort: Newest First - Order Posted

Viewing: 1823 - 1773

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52Blog Index

1810 it didnt even make sense at all lmao
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting EricSFL:


Nope, never heard of it.


'Twas a hurricane modification project funded by the federal government in the 1960s. It persisted into the middle 1970s, but was eventually dropped due to lack of appreciable effects on the storms they attempted to modify.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting 7544:
yeap tampaspin i get what u saying now but its all the matter of timming so we have to wait and see thanks for that info


Yep, timing is always important. Any delay for 92L even by 1 day where it is suppose to be will bring it further north.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1820. angiest


24 hours ago, this storm was passing over Cuba, now it has completed crossing the Yucatan. If this storm actually forms, the end of the month will be interesting...
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
nite all...check back tomorrow.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting angiest:


Simply stating that we have, in fact, tried controlling tropical cyclones with, at best, mixed results.

I don't believe in the HAARP stuff.


Yup, that's exactly what I suspected you were getting at. I'm in the same boat.

Really, if we don't know enough about tropical cyclones/genesis as it is. So how can we expect to successfully modify them?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Lol. She probably read it and thought, "I'll show them!" We try not to anger her any longer. Not sure what we did in the first place. So we're doing our tree planting dances on egg shells around here now. Lol.


and the home depot shuffle....we hate seeing texas get smashed!! hopefully this 92L will deflate and we might just get a nice thunderstorm....we could use that around here.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1816. 7544
Quoting angiest:
Interesting:



hmm very so now with a strom in position and jasons trofs let see where should this one be going any gusses
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherxtreme:
Exactly! I guess I would be a patterncaster lol! Don't like to wishcast anything unless it really looks to be a FISH!

:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1814. EricSFL
Quoting angiest:


Ever heard of Project Stormfury (I think that's what it was called)?


Nope, never heard of it.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting EricSFL:


Me neither, but I saw an interesting documentary from National Geographic about the effects and/or consequences of using this system. It was actually used (its a fact) to clear out the polluted air in Beijing for the 2008 Summer Olympics.


I'm rather skeptical of that.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1812. angiest
Quoting KoritheMan:


What are you getting at here (I have a hunch, but want confirmation)?


Simply stating that we have, in fact, tried controlling tropical cyclones with, at best, mixed results.

I don't believe in the HAARP stuff.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
LOL!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1810. Legion
Quoting btwntx08:
im beening doing this all i get is a removed vasa deferentia nothing else
Member Since: September 21, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 361
Exactly! I guess I would be a patterncaster lol! Don't like to wishcast anything unless it really looks to be a FISH!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting angiest:


Ever heard of Project Stormfury (I think that's what it was called)?


What are you getting at here (I have a hunch, but want confirmation)?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
FISH STORM, FISH STORM, EVERYTHING BE A FISHSTORM...... FISH ARE ALL DOOM
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1806. angiest
Interesting:

Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting jodi4lsu:


i think mother nature has never read the slogan "don't mess with texas"!


Lol. She probably read it and thought, "I'll show them!" We try not to anger her any longer. Not sure what we did in the first place. So we're doing our tree planting dances on egg shells around here now. Lol.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
It still continues to shock me that no one edits or corrects JB's posts/articles whatever you want to call them. With the money he makes, and the money Accuweather makes, you would think they could afford an editor to go over these posts and make them seem a bit more professional.

For a professional individual like JB to spit out poorly written posts/blogs/articles (whatever) like that makes people take him less seriously, whether subconsciously or consciously.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1803. 7544
yeap tampaspin i get what u saying now but its all the matter of timming so we have to wait and see thanks for that info
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1802. angiest
Quoting EricSFL:


Me neither, but I saw an interesting documentary from National Geographic about the effects and/or consequences of using this system. It was actually used (its a fact) to clear out the polluted air in Beijing for the 2008 Summer Olympics.


Ever heard of Project Stormfury (I think that's what it was called)?
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting jodi4lsu:


no problem.... windman must have blown away!!!

ROFLMAO
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting weatherxtreme:
Eat crow often? Just kidding lol! what kind of caster are you? Westcaster, patterncaster, trackchangecaster or other lol!


I would call myself a "pattern caster." I mean you have to be honest with yourself. Some wishcasters seem to try to "will" the storms to the area somehow creating imaginary scenarios for this. I look at the overall patterns and all the maps that show the over all patterns and say" hmmm..look there is a strong high...there is a strong trough.." it is pretty easy to follow the lines of the possible tracks all storms could take. And right now it must suck to be in N.Mexico and Texas currently.:0
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting mbjjm:
93L no concern to anybody when storms develop so quickly after leaving the African coast.Most times head out to sea early.


It is to the Cape Verde Islands and if it makes landfall there it is not a fish storm
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting mbjjm:
93L no concern to anybody when storms develop so quickly after leaving the African coast.Most times head out to sea early.


I agree.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1797. EricSFL
Quoting KoritheMan:


Because I'm not into conspiracy theories. :P


Me neither, but I saw an interesting documentary from National Geographic about the effects and/or consequences of using this system. It was actually used (its a fact) to clear out the polluted air in Beijing for the 2008 Summer Olympics.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
im beening doing this all i get is a removed comment nothing else
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting swflurker:
My bad. Sorry jodi. Comment was for windman. :-(


no problem.... windman must have blown away!!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1794. mbjjm
93L no concern to anybody when storms develop so quickly after leaving the African coast.Most times head out to sea early.
Member Since: August 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 310
Quoting KerryInNOLA:
A very old met said in an interview that all the aids today's mets have makes forecasting more difficult. He said what is more important is a strong background in the basics.

KoritheMan, my recent remarks are not directed at you. I respect you and your contribution to the blog.


Oh, my bad then.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Eat crow often? Just kidding lol! what kind of caster are you? Westcaster, patterncaster, trackchangecaster or other lol!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1791. angiest
Quoting btwntx08:


LOL

You know, you may eventually get sent to timeout for doing that...
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting gordydunnot:
Tampaspin it seems these systems are getting harder to predict or even forecast. I admit it must not be easy being a tropical Met., even if I was one, which is not even close.
A very old met said in an interview that all the aids today's mets have makes forecasting more difficult. He said what is more important is a strong background in the basics.

KoritheMan, my recent remarks are not directed at you. I respect you and your contribution to the blog.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
My bad. Sorry jodi. Comment was for windman. :-(
Quoting jodi4lsu:


no she doesn't.....but i don't claim to know about weather up the northeast coast.....have no idea how these storms affect them.....just know it sucks down here to go through it and anyone who hasn't been through a storm firsthand has no idea how devastating it is.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting jason2010xxxx:

A HURRICANE IS HITTING THE USA THIS YEAR ON THE EAST COAST MY FRIENDS. ONLY COLD FRONTS COMING TO THE EAST COAST..COLD FRONTS ARE MY GIRL FRIEND..LETS THEM COME DOWN TO ME NOW INTO NEXT SUMMER.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting TampaSpin:
The GFS model shows the High moving out of Texas onto the east coast allowing for the northward turn i am saying....



NOGAPS breaks it down by Thursday as well.....look how the High move off to the east coast possibly blocking Igor from moving North.




hmmmmm,interesting...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1786. angiest
Quoting TexasHurricane:


true, but if the storm came up high enough and was a big/strong storm. It could still be nasty...


How many of us east of Matagorda Bay received a lot of rain from Alex?

*raises hand*
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Awe thanks trauma. And good evening. :) I'll be happy if nothing hits the U.S. at all. I think that's wishcasting but oh well. Lol.


I second that wishcast maam!!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting EricSFL:


Why can you not comment on it? Your opinion is always appreciated.


Because I'm not into conspiracy theories. :P
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1783. mbjjm
Quoting jason2010xxxx:

NO HURRICANES HITTING THE USA THIS YEAR ON THE EAST COAST FRIENDS. ONLY COLD FRONTS COMING TO THE EAST COAST..COLD FRONTS ARE MY BEST FRIEND..LETS THEM COME DOWN NOW INTO NEXT SUMMER.


As we head later in the season, the chances of a US East Coast landfall increases with a pattern which favors bring storms in rather than push them out.
Member Since: August 23, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 310
1782. angiest
Quoting Grecojdw:


Nah...those model runs for a Florida hit can't be trusted till there is real cyclone genesis. There is always an early poleward bias to some models (especially GFS as many of you have mentioned before). This definitely will trend West...unless I eat crow??:)


Certainly at two weeks the track is a "guess," but I will watch to see if GFS keeps developing this system. GFS is doing rather well on cyclogenesis.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
The GFS model shows the High moving out of Texas onto the east coast allowing for the northward turn i am saying....



NOGAPS breaks it down by Thursday as well.....look how the High move off to the east coast possibly blocking Igor from moving North.


Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1780. angiest
Quoting NOLALawyer:


Tell that to Texas. Hermine was most certainly a landfalling system in the U.S.


Hermine (as did Alex) technically made landfall in Mexico, but both brought significant weather to Texas. The difference being Alex went west into Mexico and Hermine went north into Texas post landfall.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting Grecojdw:


I think Brownsville is close enough to the model outliers to possibly get hit at the time. You have to remember that things could shift a few hundred miles quite quickly. So yes Texas could get in the cone of uncertainty quite quickly. If your up in Beaumont you probably will be protected by the high set-up.


true, but if the storm came up high enough and was a big/strong storm. It could still be nasty...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

NO HURRICANES HITTING THE USA THIS YEAR ON THE EAST COAST FRIENDS. ONLY COLD FRONTS COMING TO THE EAST COAST..COLD FRONTS ARE MY BEST FRIEND..LETS THEM COME DOWN NOW INTO NEXT SUMMER.
Member Since: August 17, 2010 Posts: 3 Comments: 1561
GFS has seemed to do pretty good this year at least IMO too but hope Bermuda is prepared for this supposed monster!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Awe thanks trauma. And good evening. :) I'll be happy if nothing hits the U.S. at all. I think that's wishcasting but oh well. Lol.


i think mother nature has never read the slogan "don't mess with texas"!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting angiest:
Yesterday this Caribbean storm looked like it might hook back to the west coast of Florida, but this run is further west...



Nah...those model runs for a Florida hit can't be trusted till there is real cyclone genesis. There is always an early poleward bias to some models (especially GFS as many of you have mentioned before). This definitely will trend West...unless I eat crow??:)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
REMEMBER monsoonal type development is occuring with 92L i thought u knew all u that thats why it isnt there yet this development takes time
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1773. angiest
Quoting weatherxtreme:
No, didn't know it was going near Bermuda. That isn't good. Hopefully it will be just a FISH!


GFS has it taking 2 days or so to clear Bermuda.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766

Viewing: 1823 - 1773

Page: 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 | 12 | 13 | 14 | 15 | 16 | 17 | 18 | 19 | 20 | 21 | 22 | 23 | 24 | 25 | 26 | 27 | 28 | 29 | 30 | 31 | 32 | 33 | 34 | 35 | 36 | 37 | 38 | 39 | 40 | 41 | 42 | 43 | 44 | 45 | 46 | 47 | 48 | 49 | 50 | 51 | 52Blog Index

Top of Page

About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

Local Weather

Light Snow
17 °F
Light Snow