Potentially dangerous 92L steadily developing; Igor nears hurricane strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on September 11, 2010

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A tropical disturbance (92L) over the Eastern Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico, is steadily organizing and appears likely to develop into a tropical depression by tonight or Sunday morning. Satellite loops show an impressive and expanding region of heavy thunderstorms, with good spiral banding and respectable upper-level outflow on all sides. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico shows that heavy rains are now affecting that island, but there is no rotation to the radar echoes evident. However, the rain bands are becoming more intense and more organized. San Juan, Puerto Rico reported a heavy rain squall at 8:44 am this morning, and radar estimates suggest two inches of rain fell in this squall just southeast of San Juan. Wind shear over 92L is low, 5 - 10 knots. The waters beneath are at near-record warmth, 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies to the north and west of 92L, and this dry air could interfere with development at times over the next few days.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 92L.

Track forecast for 92L
The disturbance is moving west-northwest at 11 mph, and steering currents favor a continuation of this motion for the next three days. Model support for development is scattered. The GFS and NOGAPS models do not develop 92L. The GFDL and ECMWF models predict development, with a track taking 92L into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. The HWRF model has a more northwesterly track, taking 92L over the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Cuba, but this model has been trending too far north in its tracks. I expect 92L will follow a path south of the islands, bringing it near or just south of Jamaica on Monday, then into the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. On this track, the southern Dominican Republic can expect heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches tonight through Monday morning; southern Haiti can expect similar rains Sunday through Monday, and Jamaica and the Cayman Islands can expect heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches Monday and Tuesday. Eastern Cuba will probably escape 92L's heaviest rains in this scenario (Figure 2.)

Intensity forecast for 92L
I can't find any reason to doubt this will be a tropical storm by Sunday or Monday, and potentially a Category 1 or 2 hurricane by Wednesday, if 92L avoids passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. The SHIPS model predicts wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, through the period, and makes 92L a Category 1 hurricane by Monday night. Water temperatures are certainly warm enough to support development. The main detriment to intensification is likely to be dry air, and 92L could wrap in some of the dry air to its northwest at times, slowing down development. The first Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into 92L is scheduled for Sunday afternoon, but there will be a research mission by the National Center for Atmospheric Research G-V jet today that will give us valuable information on 92L's large scale environment and potential for development.


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts from 92L from the 2am EDT Saturday run of the GFDL model. This model predicts most of 92L's heaviest rains will miss Haiti, but will affect Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan Peninsula. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Igor
Tropical Storm Igor is very close to hurricane strength, and appears destined to become a large and powerful major hurricane over the Central Atlantic in the days to come. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, waters are warm, 28°C, and Igor has moistened its environment enough to keep the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) at bay. Igor will track west under the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure for the next three days, then turn more to the west-northwest in response to the steering influence of a broad trough of low pressure moving across the Western Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. This should allow Igor to pass several hundred miles to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. In the longer range, Igor may be a threat to Bermuda, and has a slight chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast or Canada. Climatology shows that about 10% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at Igor's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are about 10% for Bermuda and 5% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the coming two weeks from the GFS model shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without affecting any land areas. The odds of Igor hitting land in the U.S. or Canada are probably close to their climatological 10% and 5% probabilities, respectively.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A new tropical wave (Invest 93L) emerged from the coast of Africa yesterday, and is already showing signs of organization. Most of the models predict 93L will develop into a tropical depression 2 - 4 days from now, and NHC is giving 93L a 30% chance of developing by Monday.

Next post
This may be my only post today; I'll have a new post Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

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1873. Grothar
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Quoting KoritheMan:


No snow this year, IMO. La Nina won't allow it.

I'm in Louisiana too, btw. I'm also a snow lover, but objectively, there's little reason to expect a frigid winter.


No more snow please!!.....That's why I live in FLORIDA!!
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1869. 7544
Quoting xcool:
DAM BLACK OUT


lol xcool wait till its over 92l may be a red ball then best time of the night for surpises 30 minutess right ?
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Quoting KoritheMan:


No snow this year, IMO. La Nina won't allow it.

I'm in Louisiana too, btw. I'm also a snow lover, but objectively, there's little reason to expect a frigid winter.


well then next hurricane season might get a little hairy....warm winter = busy season! but you know this already.....i'm just learining about these weather patterns...just interested, find weather fascinating!
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1867. Grothar
Quoting caneswatch:


There's some who actually know what they're doing though. I've been through Andrew, Floyd, Irene, Frances, Jeanne, Wilma, and i'm only 18. Being on here, you learn a lot more than you think, when it comes from the right people (i.e. you TampaSpin). But, others are here just to troll and be a PITA.


What are you doing up so late, you should be studying!
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1866. sngalla
No changes on the TWO.
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1865. xcool
DAM BLACK OUT
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Quoting btwntx08:
dude miami was sick he had the flu he wasnt kidding he WAS NOT joking period i'll tell him later on he aint gonna be happy


Seriously, are you 13 too? Going to tattle on someone? Get a grip. Either that or tattle and don't announce it to the whole blog.
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Quoting caneswatch:


There's some who actually know what they're doing though. I've been through Andrew, Floyd, Irene, Frances, Jeanne, Wilma, and i'm only 18. Being on here, you learn a lot more than you think, when it comes from the right people (i.e. you TampaSpin). But, others are here just to troll and be a PITA.


Bro, you have been on here for a while and you are very well respected as a young blogger. Props to you! You respect others while you may disagree. When i make a post with an opinon i try to always back things up with models or facts that i believe which is an opinion. What i don't like is when peeps disagree about a pure opinion but, can't back up what they claim to disagree with. Your Cool my friend.
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maybe just alittle north of west but not much. I think it will take a westerly course, than maybe turn alitle south of west tomorrow later on. end up south of jamaca and go towards the yukatan or somewhere in there JMO hardly a professionel one
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Quoting 7544:
92l may looks like its trying to pull north over cuba like a ernesto trck in the making getting ready for dmax maybe the early run of the hwrf waqs right after all wait and see but looking better now

I doubt it can pull north with all the talk about ridges I've been hearing.
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
Quoting jodi4lsu:


yep....southeast louisiana, been there, done that, got the t-shirt!!! ready for winter as well, curious if we will see snow again this year. seems when we get snow, we have a mild hurricane season the following year. crazy weather down here for sure!!!


No snow this year, IMO. La Nina won't allow it.

I'm in Louisiana too, btw. I'm also a snow lover, but objectively, there's little reason to expect a frigid winter.
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1857. 7544
92l may looks like its trying to pull north over cuba like a ernesto trck in the making getting ready for dmax maybe the early run of the hwrf waqs right after all wait and see but looking better now
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


YES I hope nothing comes of 92l. And LOL at the home depot shuffle. You've been there! Are you in Louisiana? We have both had our fill of storms for a while. And like with Alex and Hermine the Lone Star State seems to share our misery with our neighbors. UGH! I can't wait til November/December/ish.


yep....southeast louisiana, been there, done that, got the t-shirt!!! ready for winter as well, curious if we will see snow again this year. seems when we get snow, we have a mild hurricane season the following year. crazy weather down here for sure!!!
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Do I spy some convergence around 92l?
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
Quoting EricSFL:


I think you're thinking of who I'm thinking of... but then again, its pretty obvious. lol


Ya, probably so..HEHEHEHEHE!
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Even some that pretend to be 13yo and end up blogging in the middle of a school day but, then claim to be sick......LOL. That happened this week...LOL


There's some who actually know what they're doing though. I've been through Andrew, Floyd, Irene, Frances, Jeanne, Wilma, and i'm only 18. Being on here, you learn a lot more than you think, when it comes from the right people (i.e. you TampaSpin). But, others are here just to troll and be a PITA.
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Quoting jodi4lsu:


and the home depot shuffle....we hate seeing texas get smashed!! hopefully this 92L will deflate and we might just get a nice thunderstorm....we could use that around here.


YES I hope nothing comes of 92l. And LOL at the home depot shuffle. You've been there! Are you in Louisiana? We have both had our fill of storms for a while. And like with Alex and Hermine the Lone Star State seems to share our misery with our neighbors. UGH! I can't wait til November/December/ish.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 252

The dot of convection has grown since I last looked.
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
1849. EricSFL
Quoting TampaSpin:


Even some that pretend to be 13yo and end up blogging in the middle of a school day but, then claim to be sick......LOL. That happened this week...LOL


I think you're thinking of who I'm thinking of... but then again, its pretty obvious. lol
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1848. 7544
igor like to go west hmmm
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Quoting EricSFL:


IMO I believe us humans should never play God. Trying to alter nature's course can bring its consequences.


Agreed.
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Quoting TampaSpin:


Even some that pretend to be 13yo and end up blogging in the middle of a school day but, then claim to be sick......LOL. That happened this week...LOL


LOLLLLLLLLLLLLL Oh, that's great. That gave me a good laugh, I needed it.
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1845. JRRP
see you later
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Quoting angiest:


And Caribbean islands (Cuba in particular, I think) didn't appreciate the possible negative impact it would have on them. The winds may be weaker but the torrential rains would be devastating.


Oh right, I forgot about that. I also heard that in the event that a storm unexpectedly veered toward the coast at the last minute when it was supposed to recurve, the seeding/modification would be blamed.
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Quoting keyzdazeez:
92L what was a little red dot is a rapidly growing red dot. this thing is really taking off in the last two hours
Yes,92L might enjoy DMAX
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Exactly!
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1841. xcool
new ooz cmc drop 92L
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Quoting angiest:


And Caribbean islands (Cuba in particular, I think) didn't appreciate the possible negative impact it would have on them. The winds may be weaker but the torrential rains would be devastating.

It's best not to fool around with weather modification because you are going to end up messing up the atmosphere and weather patterns really badly.
Member Since: May 16, 2009 Posts: 1 Comments: 1231
1839. 7544
Quoting keyzdazeez:
92L what was a little red dot is a rapidly growing red dot. this thing is really taking off in the last two hours


looks to be going a little north wouldnt you say
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1837. Walshy
Quoting weatherxtreme:
Hey, I love video games and the weather. Good mix I think!


Halo Reach Tuesday!
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1836. EricSFL
Quoting KoritheMan:


'Twas a hurricane modification project funded by the federal government in the 1960s. It persisted into the middle 1970s, but was eventually dropped due to lack of appreciable effects on the storms they attempted to modify.


IMO I believe us humans should never play God. Trying to alter nature's course can bring its consequences.
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Well said. Unfortunately there are a lot of cocky teenagers on this blog who have never lived through a hurricane and liive in a fantasy world of video games.


Even some that pretend to be 13yo and end up blogging in the middle of a school day but, then claim to be sick......LOL. That happened this week...LOL
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
A very old met said in an interview that all the aids today's mets have makes forecasting more difficult. He said what is more important is a strong background in the basics.

KoritheMan, my recent remarks are not directed at you. I respect you and your contribution to the blog.


Friend O Nash? He did rule!
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Quoting KerryInNOLA:
Well said. Unfortunately there are a lot of cocky teenagers on this blog who have never lived through a hurricane and liive in a fantasy world of video games.


i'm gathering that....hey i'm up for excitement just as much as the next person, but this is not exciting in any way shape or form....i guess if the electricity was out for these teenagers without a clue and no t.v or video games then it would be tragic!!! (and of course all the batteries are gone as well)
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Hey, I love video games and the weather. Good mix I think!
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92L what was a little red dot is a rapidly growing red dot. this thing is really taking off in the last two hours
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1830. angiest
Quoting angiest:


24 hours ago, this storm was passing over Cuba, now it has completed crossing the Yucatan. If this storm actually forms, the end of the month will be interesting...


I should have said, 24 hours ago this future storm was shown passing over Cuba. This storm has not yet formed and the scenario being depicted is 2 weeks away.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
OH MY EVERYONE CHECKS OUT BECAUSE OF THE FISH-STORMINESS.... HOW SAD.... (really this sucks, I really want something to follow) NO NO NO I LIKE FISH...... FISH STORM EVERYTHING IS A FISH STORM..... no but this one might turn look at the models......
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Agree on that one, no sense at all!
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1827. angiest
Quoting KoritheMan:


'Twas a hurricane modification project funded by the federal government in the 1960s. It persisted into the middle 1970s, but was eventually dropped due to lack of appreciable effects on the storms they attempted to modify.


And Caribbean islands (Cuba in particular, I think) didn't appreciate the possible negative impact it would have on them. The winds may be weaker but the torrential rains would be devastating.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting TampaSpin:
The GFS model shows the High moving out of Texas onto the east coast allowing for the northward turn i am saying....



NOGAPS breaks it down by Thursday as well.....look how the High move off to the east coast possibly blocking Igor from moving North.




OOOH OK. I see. So I'm just gonna close my eyes now. :)
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 252
Night! We will watch the FISH for you till tomorrow.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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