Potentially dangerous 92L steadily developing; Igor nears hurricane strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on September 11, 2010

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A tropical disturbance (92L) over the Eastern Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico, is steadily organizing and appears likely to develop into a tropical depression by tonight or Sunday morning. Satellite loops show an impressive and expanding region of heavy thunderstorms, with good spiral banding and respectable upper-level outflow on all sides. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico shows that heavy rains are now affecting that island, but there is no rotation to the radar echoes evident. However, the rain bands are becoming more intense and more organized. San Juan, Puerto Rico reported a heavy rain squall at 8:44 am this morning, and radar estimates suggest two inches of rain fell in this squall just southeast of San Juan. Wind shear over 92L is low, 5 - 10 knots. The waters beneath are at near-record warmth, 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies to the north and west of 92L, and this dry air could interfere with development at times over the next few days.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 92L.

Track forecast for 92L
The disturbance is moving west-northwest at 11 mph, and steering currents favor a continuation of this motion for the next three days. Model support for development is scattered. The GFS and NOGAPS models do not develop 92L. The GFDL and ECMWF models predict development, with a track taking 92L into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. The HWRF model has a more northwesterly track, taking 92L over the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Cuba, but this model has been trending too far north in its tracks. I expect 92L will follow a path south of the islands, bringing it near or just south of Jamaica on Monday, then into the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. On this track, the southern Dominican Republic can expect heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches tonight through Monday morning; southern Haiti can expect similar rains Sunday through Monday, and Jamaica and the Cayman Islands can expect heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches Monday and Tuesday. Eastern Cuba will probably escape 92L's heaviest rains in this scenario (Figure 2.)

Intensity forecast for 92L
I can't find any reason to doubt this will be a tropical storm by Sunday or Monday, and potentially a Category 1 or 2 hurricane by Wednesday, if 92L avoids passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. The SHIPS model predicts wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, through the period, and makes 92L a Category 1 hurricane by Monday night. Water temperatures are certainly warm enough to support development. The main detriment to intensification is likely to be dry air, and 92L could wrap in some of the dry air to its northwest at times, slowing down development. The first Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into 92L is scheduled for Sunday afternoon, but there will be a research mission by the National Center for Atmospheric Research G-V jet today that will give us valuable information on 92L's large scale environment and potential for development.


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts from 92L from the 2am EDT Saturday run of the GFDL model. This model predicts most of 92L's heaviest rains will miss Haiti, but will affect Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan Peninsula. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Igor
Tropical Storm Igor is very close to hurricane strength, and appears destined to become a large and powerful major hurricane over the Central Atlantic in the days to come. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, waters are warm, 28°C, and Igor has moistened its environment enough to keep the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) at bay. Igor will track west under the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure for the next three days, then turn more to the west-northwest in response to the steering influence of a broad trough of low pressure moving across the Western Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. This should allow Igor to pass several hundred miles to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. In the longer range, Igor may be a threat to Bermuda, and has a slight chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast or Canada. Climatology shows that about 10% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at Igor's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are about 10% for Bermuda and 5% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the coming two weeks from the GFS model shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without affecting any land areas. The odds of Igor hitting land in the U.S. or Canada are probably close to their climatological 10% and 5% probabilities, respectively.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A new tropical wave (Invest 93L) emerged from the coast of Africa yesterday, and is already showing signs of organization. Most of the models predict 93L will develop into a tropical depression 2 - 4 days from now, and NHC is giving 93L a 30% chance of developing by Monday.

Next post
This may be my only post today; I'll have a new post Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

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ROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT SUN SEP 12 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
IGOR...LOCATED ABOUT 1275 MILES EAST OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIMITED IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE EAST-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN
SEA. HOWEVER...ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD STILL
FORM DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD NEAR 15
MPH. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF
DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL IS POSSIBLE IN THE VIRGIN
ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.
THESE RAINS COULD CAUSE LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND MUD
SLIDES...ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO ORGANIZE IN ASSOCIATION WITH
AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. IF CURRENT TRENDS CONTINUE...ADVISORIES
COULD BE INITIATED AT ANY TIME TODAY. INTERESTS IN THE CAPE VERDE
ISLANDS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM IN CASE
WATCHES OR WATCHES ARE REQUIRED. THERE IS A HIGH CHANCE...90
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

A WEAK AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 900 MILES EAST OF BERMUDA
IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWER ACTIVITY. DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM APPEARS UNLIKELY BEFORE IT IS ABSORBED BY A FRONTAL SYSTEM
IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF
THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS
IT MOVES NORTHWARD NEAR 20 MPH.



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1972. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15675


Models are starting to show that Northward turn as i have been saying....need to watch this close!!!!
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Get this,

Furthest east tropical cyclone formations in the Atlantic basin:

1st Place: Vince 2005
2nd Place: Christine 1973
3rd Place: Jeanne 1998

Could 93L/TD 12 become Julia fast enough to knock out Jeanne to become the 3rd furthest east tropical storm formation in the Atlantic?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting fatlady99:


You are always such a gentleman! Thank you, sir.


you welcome!! Not gentleman....just don't like COLD weather....have to put on too many clothes....shorts and flip flops are my wardrobe of choice!!
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Must be Gastons' return?
Quoting CoopNTexas:
LOL @ GFS

gfs doesn't form 92L but it develops a monster @ 300 hours...LOL
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1966. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15675
Quoting angiest:


The December 2008 dusting was the first time I have ever driven in snow, and I was 31 at the time.


Yeah. I'm an old Army brat. I'd been there done that but not in a long time. There were many "Dad's and kids' first snow pictures." Lol.

Quoting jodi4lsu:


yeah, we all run around barefoot at first too. we just aren't equipped with all the accessories for snow.....i personally don't own a heavy coat or a pair of gloves.....


We aren't prepared for anything like that either. Never thought it would happen 2 years in a row. Last year my daughter was like,"It did this last year. Now it's not special it's just a pain." Lol. She's a southern girl at heart. :)
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1964. xcool
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15675
Quoting traumaboyy:


You got it Maam!!


You are always such a gentleman! Thank you, sir.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1960. angiest
Quoting CoopNTexas:
LOL @ GFS

gfs doesn't form 92L but it develops a monster @ 300 hours...LOL


It developed the same storm 24 hours ago. Needs to be watched for consistency.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
1959. xcool
hmm
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15675
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Lol. When we got snow in December of '08. It was at night of course. That's when we get things here. Anyway talk about a bunch of pod people. We walked out of our houses, barefooted so we could get pictures before the sun came up and melted all the snow. My grandbaby made her first snowman at 3 in the morning. Poor baby was having fun til her hands went numb. She freaked out when that happened! I know we shouldn't have laughed. But...oh well I'm probly goin' to he..anyway. :)


yeah, we all run around barefoot at first too. we just aren't equipped with all the accessories for snow.....i personally don't own a heavy coat or a pair of gloves.....
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1957. EricSFL
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
Triple post---a first for me. Edited.

During certain periods of the day, geosynchronous satellites enter the earth's shadow and their solar panels can't power the satellite, so the satellite powers down. It happens in the middle of the night over where the geosynchronous satellite orbits. These eclipses are longest close to an equinox.


Very interesting, thanks.

Goodnight everyone.
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LOL @ GFS

gfs doesn't form 92L but it develops a monster @ 300 hours...LOL
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Dude, wherever they find those invest renumbers is a magic magic place LOL. Trust me, they are right, when 90L was upgraded to TD 10, they were able to find that invest renumber hours before the NHC upgraded it to TD 10 at 5 AM. This'll be upgraded to TD 12 at 5 AM.


it was wrong lol
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1954. angiest
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Lol. When we got snow in December of '08. It was at night of course. That's when we get things here. Anyway talk about a bunch of pod people. We walked out of our houses, barefooted so we could get pictures before the sun came up and melted all the snow. My grandbaby made her first snowman at 3 in the morning. Poor baby was having fun til her hands went numb. She freaked out when that happened! I know we shouldn't have laughed. But...oh well I'm probly goin' to he..anyway. :)


The December 2008 dusting was the first time I have ever driven in snow, and I was 31 at the time.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting KoritheMan:


It's not on the Navy site. You sure?


Dude, wherever they find those invest renumbers is a magic magic place LOL. Trust me, they are right, when 90L was upgraded to TD 10, they were able to find that invest renumber hours before the NHC upgraded it to TD 10 at 5 AM. This'll be upgraded to TD 12 at 5 AM.
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Quoting jodi4lsu:



same background here....paramedic for 10, nurse for 4, i guess once an adrenaline junkie always an adrenaline junkie!!!


Yep!!
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Quoting jodi4lsu:


yep...we will all be wearing shorts for Christmas!!! i can live with that!


Lol. When we got snow in December of '08. It was at night of course. That's when we get things here. Anyway talk about a bunch of pod people. We walked out of our houses, barefooted so we could get pictures before the sun came up and melted all the snow. My grandbaby made her first snowman at 3 in the morning. Poor baby was having fun til her hands went numb. She freaked out when that happened! I know we shouldn't have laughed. But...oh well I'm probly goin' to he..anyway. :)
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1950. angiest
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


From my blog post around 11 PM EDT:

"We have a tropical disturbance 92L in the eastern Caribbean Sea, and a strong tropical wave (93L) emerging from the west coast of Africa tonight. Both are well-organized and in a very favorable environment of low shear and warm waters to develop. However, because 92L has had a recent decrease in its storms tonight while 93L has maintained itself, I think 93L will become Tropical Storm Julia, and 92L will become Tropical Storm Karl (i.e. 93L will reach tropical storm strength first)."

Yep, looks like I might be able to log another Cookie this year!


LOL, except that was a resurrection of Alex.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting angiest:


This one will win the race to be Julia.


From my blog post around 11 PM EDT:

"We have a tropical disturbance 92L in the eastern Caribbean Sea, and a strong tropical wave (93L) emerging from the west coast of Africa tonight. Both are well-organized and in a very favorable environment of low shear and warm waters to develop. However, because 92L has had a recent decrease in its storms tonight while 93L has maintained itself, I think 93L will become Tropical Storm Julia, and 92L will become Tropical Storm Karl (i.e. 93L will reach tropical storm strength first)."

Yep, looks like I might be able to log another Cookie this year!
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Quoting traumaboyy:


medic/FF 17 years/ nurse 13 years....I have worked everywhere....had the handle since I was in EMT school hundred years ago..lol



same background here....paramedic for 10, nurse for 4, i guess once an adrenaline junkie always an adrenaline junkie!!!
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Quoting fatlady99:


Can you send some of that snow over here? I miss it....


You got it Maam!!
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1945. angiest
So, seriously, if anyone needs fish, we have ~20 brand new black molly fry and not enough tank between then and the 10 or so month old fry we have.

I guess Hermine was a fish storm since we got rain from it and we have fish. :P
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting jodi4lsu:


yep, insulated underwear doesn't exactly work with scrubs.... You work ER? (assuming because of the name)


medic/FF 17 years/ nurse 13 years....I have worked everywhere....had the handle since I was in EMT school hundred years ago..lol
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1943. xcool
no td12 yet.




Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15675
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yeah, but even in La Nina years, you guys always stand a better chance of getting snow than I do. :(


Depending on what job I get from graduate school, I might move from NC to somewhere further north, I'll get more snow and less 'canes. But, I'll always be an avid 'cane watcher no matter where I am at.

Maybe I'll ship some snow to your address. Or you can enter that annual contest on the Weather Channel where they deliver a white Christmas to folks in the south (I think someone from Florida Keys won that last year).
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Quoting angiest:


Heh, I guess that's what the al012010 part means.


-_-
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Quoting JLPR2:


that's the same whoops I committed earlier, that's TD 1, aka Alex. :P


oops lol
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1939. angiest
Quoting JLPR2:


that's the same whoops I committed earlier, that's TD 1, aka Alex. :P


Heh, I guess that's what the al012010 part means.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting traumaboyy:


Yes....I Nurse too....wear pajama to work.....too cold at night!!


Can you send some of that snow over here? I miss it....
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Quoting KoritheMan:


It's not on the Navy site. You sure?


the renumber is the first official evidence to an upgrade
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1936. JLPR2
Quoting Hurricanes101:
invest_RENUMBER_al932010_al012010.ren


TD 12


that's the same whoops I committed earlier, that's TD 1, aka Alex. :P
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
invest_RENUMBER_al932010_al012010.ren


TD 12


It's not on the Navy site. You sure?
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Yes....I Nurse too....wear pajama to work.....too cold at night!!


yep, insulated underwear doesn't exactly work with scrubs.... You work ER? (assuming because of the name)
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1933. angiest
Quoting Hurricanes101:
invest_RENUMBER_al932010_al012010.ren


TD 12


This one will win the race to be Julia.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting TampaSpin:


MR. U, what in the world happened to your football team today. I though hurricanes was a strong piece of energy.......LOL


Oh boy, don't get me started lol. Jacory throwing like a girl, catchable drops, poor tackling. I won't be surprised if Alonzo Highsmith's son gets the start.
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Quoting angiest:


That's why southern cities should shut down for snow.

Houston does it for ice, which is somewhat more common here than snow.


look, the way people drive around here, they should shut down the roads if someone spills a snowball....

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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


I am also a southern snow lover out here in Raleigh, not going to snow here too either due to La Nina (at least not likely to).


Yeah, but even in La Nina years, you guys always stand a better chance of getting snow than I do. :(
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Quoting jodi4lsu:


us either...but i have decided after the last two years, i am not a big fan of the snow....it's pretty while it is falling, but nobody knows how to drive in it!!! makes for a busy day in the neighborhood....


Lol. Yes it does. My son drives a tanker truck. He hated driving in the snow. "You're supposed to see through rain! What's all this solid rain stuff?" Poor boy probably thought it was nuclear fall out. Lol.
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invest_RENUMBER_al932010_al012010.ren


TD 12
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


NOGAPS can't be trusted, I feel personally that Igor will be east of where NOGAPS puts it and west of where GFS puts it, see my new forecast on Igor.


yup, the plot thickens...
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Quoting F4PHANTOM:
any particular seasons come to your mind?


1949/1950

1954/1955

1958/1959

1970/1971

1979/1980

1984/1985

1989/1990

2000/2001
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


I am also a southern snow lover out here in Raleigh, not going to snow here too either due to La Nina (at least not likely to).


yep...we will all be wearing shorts for Christmas!!! i can live with that!
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Quoting jodi4lsu:


well then......it sucked for you too!!!


Yes....I Nurse too....wear pajama to work.....too cold at night!!
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1923. Jerrob
Could someone please post a link to the NOGAPS models? Thxs.
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About

Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.