Potentially dangerous 92L steadily developing; Igor nears hurricane strength

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 3:04 PM GMT on September 11, 2010

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A tropical disturbance (92L) over the Eastern Caribbean, a few hundred miles south of Puerto Rico, is steadily organizing and appears likely to develop into a tropical depression by tonight or Sunday morning. Satellite loops show an impressive and expanding region of heavy thunderstorms, with good spiral banding and respectable upper-level outflow on all sides. Long range radar out of Puerto Rico shows that heavy rains are now affecting that island, but there is no rotation to the radar echoes evident. However, the rain bands are becoming more intense and more organized. San Juan, Puerto Rico reported a heavy rain squall at 8:44 am this morning, and radar estimates suggest two inches of rain fell in this squall just southeast of San Juan. Wind shear over 92L is low, 5 - 10 knots. The waters beneath are at near-record warmth, 30°C, and these warm waters extend to great depth. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies to the north and west of 92L, and this dry air could interfere with development at times over the next few days.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of 92L.

Track forecast for 92L
The disturbance is moving west-northwest at 11 mph, and steering currents favor a continuation of this motion for the next three days. Model support for development is scattered. The GFS and NOGAPS models do not develop 92L. The GFDL and ECMWF models predict development, with a track taking 92L into Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. The HWRF model has a more northwesterly track, taking 92L over the Dominican Republic, Haiti, and Cuba, but this model has been trending too far north in its tracks. I expect 92L will follow a path south of the islands, bringing it near or just south of Jamaica on Monday, then into the Yucatan Peninsula on Wednesday. On this track, the southern Dominican Republic can expect heavy rains of 3 - 6 inches tonight through Monday morning; southern Haiti can expect similar rains Sunday through Monday, and Jamaica and the Cayman Islands can expect heavier rains of 4 - 8 inches Monday and Tuesday. Eastern Cuba will probably escape 92L's heaviest rains in this scenario (Figure 2.)

Intensity forecast for 92L
I can't find any reason to doubt this will be a tropical storm by Sunday or Monday, and potentially a Category 1 or 2 hurricane by Wednesday, if 92L avoids passage over Hispaniola and Cuba. The SHIPS model predicts wind shear will remain low, 5 - 10 knots, through the period, and makes 92L a Category 1 hurricane by Monday night. Water temperatures are certainly warm enough to support development. The main detriment to intensification is likely to be dry air, and 92L could wrap in some of the dry air to its northwest at times, slowing down development. The first Air Force Hurricane Hunter mission into 92L is scheduled for Sunday afternoon, but there will be a research mission by the National Center for Atmospheric Research G-V jet today that will give us valuable information on 92L's large scale environment and potential for development.


Figure 2. Forecast rain amounts from 92L from the 2am EDT Saturday run of the GFDL model. This model predicts most of 92L's heaviest rains will miss Haiti, but will affect Jamaica, the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan Peninsula. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Igor
Tropical Storm Igor is very close to hurricane strength, and appears destined to become a large and powerful major hurricane over the Central Atlantic in the days to come. Wind shear is moderate, 15 - 20 knots, waters are warm, 28°C, and Igor has moistened its environment enough to keep the dry air of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) at bay. Igor will track west under the influence of a strong ridge of high pressure for the next three days, then turn more to the west-northwest in response to the steering influence of a broad trough of low pressure moving across the Western Atlantic on Tuesday and Wednesday. This should allow Igor to pass several hundred miles to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles. In the longer range, Igor may be a threat to Bermuda, and has a slight chance of making landfall on the U.S. East Coast or Canada. Climatology shows that about 10% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at Igor's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are about 10% for Bermuda and 5% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the coming two weeks from the GFS model shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without affecting any land areas. The odds of Igor hitting land in the U.S. or Canada are probably close to their climatological 10% and 5% probabilities, respectively.

Elsewhere in the tropics
A new tropical wave (Invest 93L) emerged from the coast of Africa yesterday, and is already showing signs of organization. Most of the models predict 93L will develop into a tropical depression 2 - 4 days from now, and NHC is giving 93L a 30% chance of developing by Monday.

Next post
This may be my only post today; I'll have a new post Sunday morning.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Hurricanes101:


La Nina has nothing to do with the tracks

1998 was a La Nina year and with the exception of Georges, all the other systems went out to sea


Bonnie didn't go out to sea, it hit eastern NC. I guess that's two storms that didn't stay away from land in 1998.
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Hmmm?

Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
92L still looks poor...need another few days.
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By the way, did you guys see that weird clip from the Weather Channel the other day, State of the 2010 Season, between Jim Cantore, Bryan Norcross, and "Guy from University" (can't remember that guy's name).

Guy from university: A Kelvin wave helped develop Hermine, and then helped to develop Igor. I think we may see more development.

(in background, weather channel shows crappy graphic of a "wave" propagating eastward from Hermine to Igor)

Cantore (cutting off the guy from university after he said that one sentence): Wow, its interesting how those wave interactions help develop those storms (to Brian Norcross), what do you think will happen for the remainder of this season?

Brian Norcross: We are at the peak of the season, and the number of storms we have seen is about what we expected at the beginning of the season...Watching Igor out there.

Cantore: Where do you think Igor will go?

Norcross: I think it will go closer to where Danielle tracked than Earl, but I hate to tell you to keep your eye off of it, its going to be a big hurricane.

Cantore:...hope your prepared, we have a long way to go if we are going to have 18 storms this season, we are only halfway there.

Okay, Weather Channel, why did you let Cantore cut-off that guy that was talking about the Kelvin waves? I wanted to understand that, your crummy graphic didn't help. Why did you even invite that guy if you were only going to have him say one sentence?

And Cantore is a sensationalist, always exaggerating. Norcross is the most sensible guy they've got there, too bad Dr. Lyons left the Weather Channel.
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2066. JLPR2
Quoting xcool:




I'm liking the shifts in the track XD
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2065. xcool


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ok. I know it doesn't show up on the 500 model but the 0z EURO is quite a bit farther north with whatever weakened state 92l is in on that run. Compared to the 12z. Might just be something to watch after all Tampa.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
Quoting btwntx08:
model is suggesting that but most likely wrong


No, they ARE wrong.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:
By the way, this is a La Nina year. What's the deal? I thought storms are less likely to recurve like Danielle and Earl have, and Igor might do.

Maybe La Nina is in its early phases and not well-developed yet?


La Nina has nothing to do with the tracks

1998 was a La Nina year and with the exception of Georges, all the other systems went out to sea
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These are the facts with the models. The models continue to bring Igor further West. It has continued to do that for 2 days now. That trend cannot continue or the ConUs will see a Major Land falling Cane somewhere. Those are the facts and no Chill is needed!
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By the way, this is a La Nina year. What's the deal? I thought storms are less likely to recurve like Danielle and Earl have, and Igor might do.

Maybe La Nina is in its early phases and not well-developed yet?
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Quoting cheetaking:
Chill, people... think long-term trends.

Remember that one run of GFS that took Danielle into NYC as a major?

Remember the run that took Earl into Charleston, SC as a cat 4?

Remember that one run that took Fiona up to a 908 mb cat 5 just off the east coast?

Remember how many of these three freak model runs came true?

For now, we need to just chill and look at trends. If all of the models suddenly abruptly show Igor busting through the trough, then we need to start being concerned. But if it is only one model, and one single run of that model for that matter, we still need to stick with the consensus that the rest of them are giving us.


Chill, who is panicing. Everyone is just posting the facts as the models are coming out. Nobody needs to be told to Chill i don't think....LOL
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2056. xcool
F4PHANTOM i hope i hit Lottery
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Quoting xcool:
tropical dead After September 21 wow


Not this year.
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Quoting xcool:
tropical dead After September 21 wow


I'll drink to that!!
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2051. xcool
tropical dead After September 21 wow
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Yep, from the images y'all are posting, that EURO shows Igor recurving between Bermuda and NC, I thinks that is sensible right now. But I disagree with how strong EURO makes Igor at that time. I mean, 928 mb? sheeeesh! That would be one of the strongest hurricanes that far north.
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I'm skeptical of Igor even recurving. So many factors in play.. Igor could be the next Gloria, maybe Bastardi is on to something here. He mentioned that before Gloria missed the trough, a strong cold front came through the NE USA. Similar pattern to today. We have disagreement on models on Igor unlike the big agreement of models with Earl and Danielle. Igor has a 50% chance in my books at impacting the USA, but also has a 50% chance on recurving.
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Quoting CoopNTexas:
How many close calls for EC before they get one?


Hopefully they'll stay lucky.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
2047. JLPR2
Quoting CoopNTexas:


Dang it wont weaken! Still in the 920's mb
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Igor just might be the storm for NYC! Just maybe!
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Chill, people... think long-term trends.

Remember that one run of GFS that took Danielle into NYC as a major?

Remember the run that took Earl into Charleston, SC as a cat 4?

Remember that one run that took Fiona up to a 908 mb cat 5 just off the east coast?

Remember how many of these three freak model runs came true?

For now, we need to just chill and look at trends. If all of the models suddenly abruptly show Igor busting through the trough, then we need to start being concerned. But if it is only one model, and one single run of that model for that matter, we still need to stick with the consensus that the rest of them are giving us.
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How many close calls for EC before they get one?
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Phew, that's what I was seeming to hint at in my blog post I made a few hours ago. I feel the EURO might have it right here, with Earl turning northward between Bermuda and NC.


Ooops, getting late. I meant to say, IGOR not Earl, LOL!
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Quoting reedzone:
EURO turns Igor more NW, but not north at 192 hours, waiting on the next few frames. Should still recurve or hit the East Coast on this run.


yes it does

from 192 to 216 it moves the system NNE
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Quoting JLPR2:


Well, walking to your doom laughing makes it a little worse. XD


Hmmmm? I dunno bout that. Maybe maybe not. If I didn't know where I was gong at least I'd die happy? SmileyCentral.com
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
Actually talking about GOM...but I just looked back on the EC ridge. LOL
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
EURO still turns Igor north though, between Bermuda and the US


Phew, that's what I was seeming to hint at in my blog post I made a few hours ago. I feel the EURO might have it right here, with Earl turning northward between Bermuda and NC.
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EURO turns Igor more NW, but not north at 192 hours, waiting on the next few frames. Should still recurve or hit the East Coast on this run.
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Quoting NCHurricane2009:


What? I was thinking the worst case scenario being an Earl. Could this go west of where Earl went?


Major Threat is very possible. Yes!
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2034. xcool
:0
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Quoting CoopNTexas:
Ridge re-builds



But that's way too close to the east coast. I hope that's wrong. That's going to be bad. :(
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
Quoting TampaSpin:


OH yes.....been saying that for sometime now.


What? I was thinking the worst case scenario being an Earl. Could this go west of where Earl went?
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Quoting AtHomeInTX:


Oh boy. Here we go.


What did i tell ya. Tx/La border.....just sayin
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Quoting JLPR2:


Well, walking to your doom laughing makes it a little worse. XD


LMFAO!!
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Ridge re-builds

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EURO still turns Igor north though, between Bermuda and the US
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Quoting F4PHANTOM:
It's a conspiracy with NHC to prove all other models are wrong for not developing 92L


Yeah but I think the EURO has messed up on some this season too. Or maybe it just seems that way. I might need a nap also. Lol.
Member Since: August 24, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 253
Quoting CoopNTexas:
Where are we going?


I'm not packed!!
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Igor's core structure is looking very impressive...

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2024. xcool
i see hope 92L
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2023. JLPR2
Quoting AtHomeInTX:


LOL. But you make me laugh! So I guess I'll give you that one. :)


Well, walking to your doom laughing makes it a little worse. XD
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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