Flooding, tornadoes for TX, OK; dangerous 92L forms; 4th hottest summer for U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:41 PM GMT on September 09, 2010

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Dangerous flash flooding is occurring in Eastern Oklahoma this morning, where rainfall rates as heavy as three inches per hour from the remains of Tropical Storm Hermine are occurring. A large area of Eastern Oklahoma received 3 - 6 inches of rain last night and this morning, with radar-estimated rainfall amounts as high as fifteen inches (Figure 2.) Yesterday, Hermine killed two people in Texas, who were attempting to cross flood waters in their vehicles. Hermine dropped 6 - 8 inches of rain in the Dallas/Fort Worth area, creating moderate to major flooding along the Trinity River in Dallas. Two tornadoes touched down near Dallas, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged a total of eight tornado reports in Oklahoma and Texas from Hermine. The latest rainfall totals from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center show 15.62" fell in Georgetown, Texas, with fifteen locations in Texas receiving over ten inches of rain. Big city rainfall totals included 7.57" at Austin, 6.73" at San Antonio, 6.52" at Dallas, and 7.20" at Fort Worth.


Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for the Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas area from Hermine shows a large area of 6+ inches of rain, with maximum amounts of ten inches.

Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall for eastern Oklahoma, where up to fifteen inches of rain fell last night and this morning.

Potentially dangerous Lesser Antilles tropical disturbance 92L forms
A tropical disturbance (92L) has developed over the extreme southeastern Caribbean just north of the coast of South America, over the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. Surface observations indicate that pressures have been slowly falling at a number of stations, and satellite loops show a modest region of heavy thunderstorm activity is building. A strong flow of upper level easterly winds is creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and the waters are plenty warm for development. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies over the northern Caribbean, but this dry air should not interfere with development over the next two days.

The disturbance is slowly drifting westward, but steering currents favor a more northwest motion Friday and Saturday. Lower shear lies over the Central Caribbean, away from the coast of South America, so any northward component of motion will allow for more significant development. There is drier air to the north, but 92L is steadily moistening the atmosphere in the Caribbean, so dry air may not be a problem for it. There is substantial model support for development. The disturbance is in a dangerous location for development, and gives me the greatest concern of any Atlantic disturbance so far this year. The models predict that by Saturday, 92L will bring heavy rains to Puerto Rico. These rains will then spread to the Dominican Republic on Sunday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba on Monday. The longer range track of 92L is uncertain, and will strongly depend on where the storm drifts during the next two days. The ECMWF and GFS models predict a more southerly path through the Western Caribbean towards Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and the NOGAPS and Canadian models predict a more northerly path along the length of Cuba towards Florida. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. Stay tuned.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the potentially dangerous disturbance in the Southeast Caribbean.

Igor
Tropical Storm Igor is barely hanging on in the face of 20 - 25 knots of winds shear, courtesy of strong upper-level winds out of the east. The shear has exposed Igor's low level circulation to view, and the storm has just one small spot of heavy thunderstorms near its center. Once Igor gets another 200 miles away from Africa, the shear should decline to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and allow steady strengthening to occur. Waters are warm, 28°C, and the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is well north of Igor, so the storm should intensity once the shear drops. The models are pretty unanimous about developing Igor into a hurricane 3 - 5 days from now. Igor will track west to west-northwest over the next week, with long range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models putting the storm several hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands a week from now. Climatology shows that about 20% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at Igor's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are 10% for the U.S. Gulf Coast, 5% for Puerto Rico, and 10% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the coming two weeks from the GFS model shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without affecting any land areas, and the odds of Igor hitting land are lower than climatology.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models predict the development of a new tropical wave off the coast of Africa 4 - 6 days from now.

Hottest summer in history for 50 million Americans
The U.S. had its fourth warmest summer since record keeping began 116 years ago, according to statistics issued yesterday by the National Climatic Data Center. Only 1936, 2006 and 1934 were hotter. Ten states had their warmest summer on record--Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, South Carolina, Georgia and Alabama. Seventeen other states had a top-ten warmest summer, including five states that had their second warmest summer in history (Figure 4.) No states had a top-ten coldest summer. Record daily highs outpaced record daily lows by about 4 to 1 during the summer, with 5,287 daily record highs set, and 1,426 record lows. The summer warmth was a pretty remarkable swing from this past winter, which was the 18th coldest in U.S. history.


Figure 4. State-by-state temperature rankings for the summer of 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, approximately 50 - 60 million Americans experienced their hottest summer ever. No summer in U.S. history has affected so many Americans as "hottest-summer-on-record". The following large cities all posted a record hottest summer:

Washington D.C. National Airport: 81.3° (old record 80.0° summer of 1943)
Dulles Airport, VA: 77.8° (old record 76.8° summer of 2007)
Richmond, VA: 81.3° (old record 80.0° summer of 1994)
Atlantic City, NJ: 77.5° (old record 75.8° summer of 2005)
Philadelphia, PA: 79.6° (old record 78.9° summer of 1995)
New York City (Central Park): 77.8° (old record 77.3° summer of 1966)
Trenton, NJ: 77.7° (old record 76.5° summer of 1898)
Wilmington, DE: 77.8° (old record 77.7° summer of 1900)
Baltimore, MD: 79.2° (old record 79.1° summer of 1943)
Norfolk, VA: 81.1° (old record 80.0° summer of 1994)
Tampa, FL: 84.5° (previous record 84.2° in 1998)
Lakeland, FL: 84.6° (previous record 84.4° in 1987)
St. Petersburg, FL: 85.6° (old record 84.6° in 1987)

Santa Barbara, CA was the only major U.S. city that had its coldest summer on record, though several other California cities were unusually cool. San Diego had its 3rd coolest summer, and the Los Angeles airport had its 2nd coolest summer.

Fortunately, it was a very wet summer, and the record heat did not lead to widespread drought. Summer 2010 ranked as the 16th wettest summer in the 116-year record for the contiguous U.S. Wisconsin had its wettest summer on record, and six other states had a top-ten wettest summer. No state had a top-ten driest summer.

Next post
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tornado from TS Hermine, Dallas, TX (Richochet)
Tornado (bright area, middle of photo over flooded Trinity River, form during an evening squall from TS Hermine
Tornado from TS Hermine, Dallas, TX
Hermine is on the way (BBedford)
Wave action on Padre Island,near Bob Hall pier this afternoon. Rain bands are already coming ashore.
Hermine is on the way
Tornado Damage Dallas, TX (Bordonaro)
An EF-2 Tornado (winds 111-115MPH) spawned by TD Hermine 9-8-10@ 6:20PM CDT damages warehouse in Dallas, TX.
Tornado Damage Dallas, TX

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2685. scott39
Goodmorning, Looks like an LLC may be trying to develope with 92L.
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If the Ukmet model was right (which it won't be - it's the UKM - amongst other reasons), then the Cape Verdes would get smacked pretty hard.

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2683. IKE
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Sorry, my bad...Houston Chronicle
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490

WTNT80 EGRR 100600


MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC

AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 00UTC 10.09.2010

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGOR ANALYSED POSITION : 15.8N 27.1W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL112010

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
00UTC 10.09.2010 15.8N 27.1W WEAK
12UTC 10.09.2010 16.2N 30.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 11.09.2010 17.2N 32.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 11.09.2010 17.3N 36.8W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 12.09.2010 17.3N 39.9W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 12.09.2010 17.4N 43.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2010 17.3N 45.6W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 13.09.2010 17.2N 48.2W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 14.09.2010 17.4N 50.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 14.09.2010 17.7N 52.7W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 15.09.2010 18.2N 54.0W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 15.09.2010 18.6N 55.1W INTENSE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 16.09.2010 19.0N 56.0W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY


NEW TROPICAL STORM FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 13.8N 17.2W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 11.09.2010 13.8N 17.2W WEAK
00UTC 12.09.2010 13.3N 19.2W MODERATE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 12.09.2010 13.4N 21.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 13.09.2010 13.9N 23.4W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 13.09.2010 15.2N 25.1W MODERATE INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 14.09.2010 17.0N 26.5W STRONG INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY
12UTC 14.09.2010 18.9N 27.7W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
00UTC 15.09.2010 20.7N 28.9W INTENSE INTENSIFYING RAPIDLY
12UTC 15.09.2010 22.2N 31.0W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY
00UTC 16.09.2010 23.3N 33.6W INTENSE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY



THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS
AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT


MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK

TOO 101033


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Quoting StormW:


Definitely...the next 3 come off lower than Igor


Lower is not good. Sooner or later one of these is not going to be pulled north.
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I suppose that article didn't think much of the Canadian model.
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Thanks Storm!
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2676. IKE
GFS gets Igor to about 60W...north/NNE of the islands...and turns him....east of Bermuda.

Does little to nothing with 92L.

..............................................

NOGAPS gets Igor to about 45-48W and starts to turn him.

Doesn't do much with 92L.
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Quoting leicaman:
Good morning Storm...I was reading an article last night in the Houston Post that ranked the best computer models:EMX, GFDL, HWF, NGP, UKM and GFS dynamical models...comments?
Quoting leicaman:
Good morning Storm...I was reading an article last night in the Houston Post that ranked the best computer models:EMX, GFDL, HWF, NGP, UKM and GFS dynamical models...comments?
The Houston Post? It's back?
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Good morning Storm...I was reading an article last night in the Houston Post that ranked the best computer models:EMX, GFDL, HWF, NGP, UKM and GFS dynamical models...comments?
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92L stationary 12.2N 60W
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Quoting StormW:


Definately not going to be a lack of things to talk about...
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Quoting CoopsWife:
Morning Ike, Cotillion, Teddy, et al - chocolate chip and blueberry muffins on the sideboard this morning. I need the chocolate to console myself for Favre's interception last night. :( Could have been worse....

Now, off to read back and try to comprehend where we are with the models this morning.


Good morning.
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Invest92L
08Sep . 12pmGMT - - 11.8n58.3w - - 20knots - - 1009mb - - NHC-ATCF
08Sep . 06pmGMT - - 11.9n58.7w - - 20knots - - 1009mb - - NHC-ATCF
09Sep . 12amGMT - - 12.0n59.3w - - 20knots - - 1009mb - - NHC-ATCF
09Sep . 06amGMT - - 12.1n59.8w - - 20knots - - 1009mb - - NHC-ATCF
09Sep . 12pmGMT - - 12.2n60.0w - - 20knots - - 1009mb - - NHC-ATCF *12.2n60.4w
09Sep . 06pmGMT - - 12.2n60.0w - - 20knots - - 1009mb - - NHC-ATCF *12.3n61.0w*1008mb
10Sep . 12amGMT - - 12.2n60.0w - - 20knots - - 1009mb - - NHC-ATCF *12.3n61.0w
10Sep . 06amGMT - - 12.2n60.0w - - 25knots - - 1009mb - - NHC-ATCF

*Before the NHC reevaluated&altered the ATCF numbers.

I suspect that the NHC had lost track of the storm's center yesterday, and doesn't want to be caught in the awkward position of calling a Depression east and/or south of its last invest/storm center. Twould make their initial heading for the depression appear to be showing eastward and/or southward travel, when they expect it to be actually heading westward and probably northward.
Those altered numbers are likely to be changed at least one more time before and/or shortly after a Depression is called, depending on when an unequivocal storm center is clearly seen.
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Morning Ike, Cotillion, Teddy, et al - chocolate chip and blueberry muffins on the sideboard this morning. I need the chocolate to console myself for Favre's interception last night. :( Could have been worse....

Now, off to read back and try to comprehend where we are with the models this morning.
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Good morning, Everyone.
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I think we'll have another tropical storm by Sunday night off Africa, if the models are right.
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The Euro is bombing Igor almost exactly the same place where Isabel did (the last Cat5 in the CAtl).

It's also very boisterous on that 2nd Cape Verde hurricane. CMC does as well

The GFS is milder (how weird) on both.

However, this year, the model that shows the least bombing is usually correct.

I also don't buy the RI of the 2nd CV.
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At least three or four more on the way:

Click for larger image:

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Good Morning.
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CMC now develops 92L, but takes it on a unusual path.

Link

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2659. IKE
Latest GFS @ 54 hours....

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Quoting robert88:
GFS was the first model to drop Gaston. I am beginning to think it might have the right idea with 92L as well. It has done better than all the other models dealing with weak systems this season. Igor looks like more of a Bermuda threat at this point.


I'm going to have to disagree.. 92L will probably not develop until a few days from now, but still has a good chance in around 96 hours. Then it could become a threat. Here's the ECMWF 168 hours out. Three hurricanes, two in the CATL, one hitting the Yucatan.


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GFS was the first model to drop Gaston. I am beginning to think it might have the right idea with 92L as well. It has done better than all the other models dealing with weak systems this season. Igor looks like more of a Bermuda threat at this point.
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Igor spells trouble. The ridge looks more pronounced with a trough that looks to be pretty flat
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2655. IKE
This one's for you DestinJeff.....102 days in...81 left...

The Chart~

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2654. Vero1
WTNT41 KNHC 100833
TCDAT1
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGOR DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 AM AST FRI SEP 10 2010

IGOR IS STILL STRONGLY SHEARED WITH THE CENTER LOCATED TO THE EAST
OF A STRONG AND CIRCULAR CONVECTIVE MASS AS OBSERVED IN BOTH
MICROWAVE DATA AND CONVENTIONAL IR IMAGERY. AS WE SPEAK...FIRST
METEOSAT VISIBLE IMAGE CONFIRMED THAT THE CENTER IS EXPOSED BUT
BETTER DEFINED. INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 30 KNOTS BUT IT WILL
NOT TAKE MUCH FOR IGOR TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STATUS AND IN
FACT...THIS IS EXPECTED TO OCCUR LATER TODAY. THE CYCLONE IS
ESCAPING FROM THE MONSOON-TYPE LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND IS
BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE TRADE WINDS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN LESS
SHEAR AND WILL LEAD TO INTENSIFICATION...AS INDICATED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST IGOR TO BE A LARGE
HURRICANE OVER THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD AND BEYOND.

THE INITIAL MOTION IS UNCERTAIN SINCE IT WAS DIFFICULT TO FOLLOW
VARIOUS LOW-LEVEL CENTERS THAT WERE ROTATING AROUND A LARGER GYRE
DURING THE PAST 12 HOURS OR SO. THE BEST ESTIMATE IS 280 DEGREES AT
11 TO 12 KNOTS. THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS FORECAST TO BUILD WESTWARD
AND THIS PATTERN SHOULD STEER IGOR WESTWARD WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED DURING THE NEXT 3 TO 4 DAYS. BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...IGOR SHOULD BE ON THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THE
RIDGE AND SHOULD BEGIN TO GAIN MORE LATITUDE. TRACK GUIDANCE
OVERALL IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN TAKING IGOR WESTWARD. HOWEVER...A
COUPLE OF MODELS FORECAST A STRONGER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE...RESULTING IN A MORE PRONOUNCED WESTWARD TRACK. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS HEAVILY BIASED TOWARD THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
MODELS WHICH FORECAST A MODERATE BUT A MORE REALISTIC SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 10/0900Z 16.0N 29.3W 30 KT
12HR VT 10/1800Z 16.0N 31.1W 35 KT
24HR VT 11/0600Z 16.3N 34.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 11/1800Z 16.5N 37.5W 45 KT
48HR VT 12/0600Z 16.8N 40.2W 55 KT
72HR VT 13/0600Z 17.0N 45.0W 65 KT
96HR VT 14/0600Z 18.0N 49.5W 80 KT
120HR VT 15/0600Z 19.5N 53.5W 90 KT
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HOWEVER...A
COUPLE OF MODELS FORECAST A STRONGER SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH
OF THE CYCLONE...RESULTING IN A MORE PRONOUNCED WESTWARD TRACK. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS HEAVILY BIASED TOWARD THE GFS AND THE ECMWF
MODELS WHICH FORECAST A MODERATE BUT A MORE REALISTIC SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE TO THE NORTH.

Favouritism, tsch.
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...IGOR EXPECTED TO REGAIN TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH LATER TODAY OVER
THE FAR EASTERN ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 29.3W
ABOUT 350 MI...565 KM W OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
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2651. Vero1
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT FRI SEP 10 2010

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0445 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGOR IS CENTERED NEAR 15.4N 28.0W AT 10/0300
UTC OR ABOUT 215 NM W OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MOVING W-NW AT 11 KT. ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1004
MB. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEED IS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
PLEASE SEE LATEST NHC INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY UNDER
AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT1/WTNT31 KNHC AND THE FULL FORECAST
AND ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC FOR
MORE DETAILS. EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES OVER THE
IGOR WITH THE CENTER UNDER THE EASTERN MOST PORTION OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. NUMEROUS STRONG CONVECTION IS WITHIN A 45/60 NM
RADIUS OF 17N30W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION COVERS
THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FROM 14N-18N BETWEEN 28W-32W.
SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS SW OF THE LOW
LEVEL CENTER FROM 12N-14N BETWEEN 30W-34W.

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM 16N60W THROUGH A 1009 MB LOW
CENTERED OVER THE WINDWARD ISLANDS NEAR 12N61W ALONG THE E COAST
OF TRINIDAD TO NEAR 10N61W. THIS IS A BROAD AREA OF LOWER
PRESSURE WITH A DISTINCT CYCLONIC CURVATURE. SCATTERED SHOWERS
WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVER THE AREA FROM 10N-14N
BETWEEN 58W-65W INCLUDING THE WINDWARD ISLANDS. THE LOW IS
CURRENTLY NEAR STATIONARY AND SHOULD BEGIN TO DRIFT WESTWARD.
THE ENVIRONMENT IS BECOMING A LITTLE LESS FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE
OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.
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Quoting RyanFSU:
Lixion knows what he's doing at the NHC. These long-range forecasts when the storm is 5 to 7 days away from land are less important than those when landfall is a possibility. Then the NHC has several forecasters working the same storm/shift and you get more of a consensus forecast view.

You don't need a PhD to work at the NHC...experience and intuition are also important for the "value added" component of the forecast.


Well said!
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Just FYI, in case anyone looks in here before the next blog starts up...

"SAN BRUNO, Calif. %u2014 A massive explosion sent flames roaring through a mostly residential neighborhood in the San Francisco suburb of San Bruno Thursday night, destroying 53 homes and damaging 120, officials said. One person was confirmed dead.

The area utility company confirmed late Thursday that a gas line ruptured in the area of the blast.

"If it is ultimately determined that we were responsible for the cause of the incident, we will take accountability," Pacific Gas and Electric Co. said in an e-mailed statement.

At least a second death was reported. Dozens were injured, several critically, officials told local media.

A 15-foot-deep crater about 30 feet long and 20 feet wide was left near Claremont and Glenview drives and Earl Avenue, KGO-TV said. Homes on both sides of the street were leveled, it said."

******

Just a sad, and major, tragedy. :((

Jo

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2648. jonelu
Quoting jonelu:


where in FL?

my bad....I see now
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2647. jonelu
Quoting JFLORIDA:
Looking like a gas line exploded. Too hot to be just residential/ brush and there was an explosion. One dead so far - I dont see how people near that could survive. Its been burning 4 hrs now. The center never died down.



where in FL?
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Quoting JFLORIDA:


They said you can feel the heat from a half mile away. Fire is going way up into the sky, I doubt they can even get close to it its so hot.

what the heck cause that fire?
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Good morning.

Igor still a TD, 92L less in development percentage?

TCHP (Tropical Cyclone Hyperbole Potential) must be lessening this morning...

(Although, it is likely to change on both accounts. I just remember the last time a forecaster hastily lowered the percentage. It was Blake. That mistake angered what would be Danielle.)

On a side note, while not a Saints fan, glad to see they won last night.
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Quoting JFLORIDA:
Looking like a gas line exploded. Too hot to be just residential/ brush and there was an explosion. One dead so far - I dont see how people near that could survive. Its been burning 4 hrs now.


Damn. :( I was thinking it looked too intense as you say for brush fire. I hope everyone else made it out also. Yeah I don't think that is survivable. Just horrible! A few years ago I went all electric then my dad also did. Natural and propane has always scared me. My son's family moved into and old house that has natural gas. I offered to buy them electric heatig,cooking, hot water heater. But he doesn't want to do that. He did get a CO detector. Guess I can just hope for the best. :/
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barbados Winds out of the SE (pressure falling)

Martinique winds out of the NE (pressure falling)

St. Martin winds out of the NE (steady)

interesting
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Quoting JFLORIDA:


They said you can feel the heat from a half mile away. Fire is going way up into the sky, I doubt they can even get close to it its so hot.


OMG! Wow! Couldn't run it with sound. Is this caused by a forest fire? I think i read somewhere it was entering fire season out there. That's terrible whatever the cause. :(
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2639. xcool
allbye
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2637. xcool
hmbamm
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Quoting btwntx08:
new model runs bew gfdl following the bamm suite


Better consensus and a farther north track for the bamms
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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