Flooding, tornadoes for TX, OK; dangerous 92L forms; 4th hottest summer for U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:41 PM GMT on September 09, 2010

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Dangerous flash flooding is occurring in Eastern Oklahoma this morning, where rainfall rates as heavy as three inches per hour from the remains of Tropical Storm Hermine are occurring. A large area of Eastern Oklahoma received 3 - 6 inches of rain last night and this morning, with radar-estimated rainfall amounts as high as fifteen inches (Figure 2.) Yesterday, Hermine killed two people in Texas, who were attempting to cross flood waters in their vehicles. Hermine dropped 6 - 8 inches of rain in the Dallas/Fort Worth area, creating moderate to major flooding along the Trinity River in Dallas. Two tornadoes touched down near Dallas, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged a total of eight tornado reports in Oklahoma and Texas from Hermine. The latest rainfall totals from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center show 15.62" fell in Georgetown, Texas, with fifteen locations in Texas receiving over ten inches of rain. Big city rainfall totals included 7.57" at Austin, 6.73" at San Antonio, 6.52" at Dallas, and 7.20" at Fort Worth.


Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for the Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas area from Hermine shows a large area of 6+ inches of rain, with maximum amounts of ten inches.

Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall for eastern Oklahoma, where up to fifteen inches of rain fell last night and this morning.

Potentially dangerous Lesser Antilles tropical disturbance 92L forms
A tropical disturbance (92L) has developed over the extreme southeastern Caribbean just north of the coast of South America, over the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. Surface observations indicate that pressures have been slowly falling at a number of stations, and satellite loops show a modest region of heavy thunderstorm activity is building. A strong flow of upper level easterly winds is creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and the waters are plenty warm for development. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies over the northern Caribbean, but this dry air should not interfere with development over the next two days.

The disturbance is slowly drifting westward, but steering currents favor a more northwest motion Friday and Saturday. Lower shear lies over the Central Caribbean, away from the coast of South America, so any northward component of motion will allow for more significant development. There is drier air to the north, but 92L is steadily moistening the atmosphere in the Caribbean, so dry air may not be a problem for it. There is substantial model support for development. The disturbance is in a dangerous location for development, and gives me the greatest concern of any Atlantic disturbance so far this year. The models predict that by Saturday, 92L will bring heavy rains to Puerto Rico. These rains will then spread to the Dominican Republic on Sunday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba on Monday. The longer range track of 92L is uncertain, and will strongly depend on where the storm drifts during the next two days. The ECMWF and GFS models predict a more southerly path through the Western Caribbean towards Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and the NOGAPS and Canadian models predict a more northerly path along the length of Cuba towards Florida. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. Stay tuned.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the potentially dangerous disturbance in the Southeast Caribbean.

Igor
Tropical Storm Igor is barely hanging on in the face of 20 - 25 knots of winds shear, courtesy of strong upper-level winds out of the east. The shear has exposed Igor's low level circulation to view, and the storm has just one small spot of heavy thunderstorms near its center. Once Igor gets another 200 miles away from Africa, the shear should decline to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and allow steady strengthening to occur. Waters are warm, 28°C, and the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is well north of Igor, so the storm should intensity once the shear drops. The models are pretty unanimous about developing Igor into a hurricane 3 - 5 days from now. Igor will track west to west-northwest over the next week, with long range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models putting the storm several hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands a week from now. Climatology shows that about 20% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at Igor's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are 10% for the U.S. Gulf Coast, 5% for Puerto Rico, and 10% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the coming two weeks from the GFS model shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without affecting any land areas, and the odds of Igor hitting land are lower than climatology.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models predict the development of a new tropical wave off the coast of Africa 4 - 6 days from now.

Hottest summer in history for 50 million Americans
The U.S. had its fourth warmest summer since record keeping began 116 years ago, according to statistics issued yesterday by the National Climatic Data Center. Only 1936, 2006 and 1934 were hotter. Ten states had their warmest summer on record--Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, South Carolina, Georgia and Alabama. Seventeen other states had a top-ten warmest summer, including five states that had their second warmest summer in history (Figure 4.) No states had a top-ten coldest summer. Record daily highs outpaced record daily lows by about 4 to 1 during the summer, with 5,287 daily record highs set, and 1,426 record lows. The summer warmth was a pretty remarkable swing from this past winter, which was the 18th coldest in U.S. history.


Figure 4. State-by-state temperature rankings for the summer of 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, approximately 50 - 60 million Americans experienced their hottest summer ever. No summer in U.S. history has affected so many Americans as "hottest-summer-on-record". The following large cities all posted a record hottest summer:

Washington D.C. National Airport: 81.3° (old record 80.0° summer of 1943)
Dulles Airport, VA: 77.8° (old record 76.8° summer of 2007)
Richmond, VA: 81.3° (old record 80.0° summer of 1994)
Atlantic City, NJ: 77.5° (old record 75.8° summer of 2005)
Philadelphia, PA: 79.6° (old record 78.9° summer of 1995)
New York City (Central Park): 77.8° (old record 77.3° summer of 1966)
Trenton, NJ: 77.7° (old record 76.5° summer of 1898)
Wilmington, DE: 77.8° (old record 77.7° summer of 1900)
Baltimore, MD: 79.2° (old record 79.1° summer of 1943)
Norfolk, VA: 81.1° (old record 80.0° summer of 1994)
Tampa, FL: 84.5° (previous record 84.2° in 1998)
Lakeland, FL: 84.6° (previous record 84.4° in 1987)
St. Petersburg, FL: 85.6° (old record 84.6° in 1987)

Santa Barbara, CA was the only major U.S. city that had its coldest summer on record, though several other California cities were unusually cool. San Diego had its 3rd coolest summer, and the Los Angeles airport had its 2nd coolest summer.

Fortunately, it was a very wet summer, and the record heat did not lead to widespread drought. Summer 2010 ranked as the 16th wettest summer in the 116-year record for the contiguous U.S. Wisconsin had its wettest summer on record, and six other states had a top-ten wettest summer. No state had a top-ten driest summer.

Next post
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tornado from TS Hermine, Dallas, TX (Richochet)
Tornado (bright area, middle of photo over flooded Trinity River, form during an evening squall from TS Hermine
Tornado from TS Hermine, Dallas, TX
Hermine is on the way (BBedford)
Wave action on Padre Island,near Bob Hall pier this afternoon. Rain bands are already coming ashore.
Hermine is on the way
Tornado Damage Dallas, TX (Bordonaro)
An EF-2 Tornado (winds 111-115MPH) spawned by TD Hermine 9-8-10@ 6:20PM CDT damages warehouse in Dallas, TX.
Tornado Damage Dallas, TX

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Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
So what does that tell you?


it makes the says run from the wind and hide from the water come to mind
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Quoting ecflweatherfan:
Kman... here is the 1pm update on the obs from Grantley Adams, Barbados...

Conditions at Sep 09, 2010 - 01:00 PM EDTSep 09, 2010 - 12:00 PM CDTSep 09, 2010 - 11:00 AM MDTSep 09, 2010 - 10:00 AM PDTSep 09, 2010 - 09:00 AM ADTSep 09, 2010 - 08:00 AM HDT
2010.09.09 1700 UTC
Wind from the NNW (330 degrees) at 8 MPH (7 KT) Visibility 3 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather With thunder showers
Temperature 77 F (25 C)
Dew Point 73 F (23 C)
Relative Humidity 88%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.83 in. Hg (1010 hPa)


I was just going to post that. You were correct about the outflow boundary affecting the wind reading. The ASCAT pass showed the center due East of Barbados this morning so if anything the center has now pulled up to the N some East of Barbados. That would be my conclusion from this data.

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Quoting 7544:
cmc says go fish 92l lol


????

It crosses it over many of the Greater Antilles
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533. 7544
igor looks best of all right now
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Quoting 7544:
cmc says go fish 92l lol


Maybe not. That track looked similar to the 00z run but didn't go out as far. Is there a long range 12z cmc? Anyway it hooked a left on last nights run.

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Quoting Drakoen:
92L still has a ways to go before it becomes a tropical depression.


A long way. However, once it gets into the Western Caribbean it should "go to town".
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Quoting FloridaHeat:
what is ACE


You feel you can chase hurricanes, but don't know what ACE is? mmmm.
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CMC looks a little junkish to me. Who knows at this point.
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Quoting hunkerdown:
they are all named "L" on this map :P
So what does that tell you?
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
Kman... here is the 1pm update on the obs from Grantley Adams, Barbados...

Conditions at Sep 09, 2010 - 01:00 PM EDTSep 09, 2010 - 12:00 PM CDTSep 09, 2010 - 11:00 AM MDTSep 09, 2010 - 10:00 AM PDTSep 09, 2010 - 09:00 AM ADTSep 09, 2010 - 08:00 AM HDT
2010.09.09 1700 UTC
Wind from the NNW (330 degrees) at 8 MPH (7 KT) Visibility 3 mile(s)
Sky conditions mostly cloudy
Weather With thunder showers
Temperature 77 F (25 C)
Dew Point 73 F (23 C)
Relative Humidity 88%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.83 in. Hg (1010 hPa)
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Quoting CoffinWood:


Hi Kman, I always appreciate your quick run-downs and measures to be on the alert for with each system.

When you said you were worried about 92L in the last blog, and StormW discussed the favorable conditions in place for rapid intensification of this system, I sat up.

What is your read on the next benchmark we should watch out for with 92L, in terms of gleaning some potential trends or patterns? By that I mean, what are you yourself looking for next with this system? Sorry if that doesn't make sense - I'm just trying to learn what things to observe in real-time, as opposed to waiting on long-range models. Thanks.


What I am looking to see now is if, when and where the NHC will classify 92L as a TD. Once the system closes off and reaches the requisite parameters to be classified we can then form a better view of where it will likely go and the potential for the intensity forecast to verify.

Right now it looks to be close to being classified but until the low closes off ( if not already so ) the area of lowest pressure could move around some, thus complicating any forecast for direction and intensity over time.
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Quoting tornadodude:


Lol nah she'll come to me
That's what I keep saying but here I sit still single. XD
Member Since: September 9, 2007 Posts: 36 Comments: 4687
523. IKE
Quoting FloridaHeat:


uncall for


Keep throwing the jabs 9641...over the weather.
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Quoting FloridaHeat:
what is ACE


Accumulated Cyclone Energy (total output per storm or season)
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I see 92L maybe drifting to the north as it finds a weakness from troughing off of the east coast. Alot of that steering depends how quickly 92L strengthens. In this case it would cause heavy rains over much of the islands toward the Gulf as a much weaker storm, however once it gets to the Gulf it could explode with high pressure potentially to its north as it could head towards Texas/Mexico border.

Otherwise if it remains more southerly towards the west, watch out Yucatan and eventually Mexico as this could be a severe threat even worse than the northely track scenario.
Member Since: February 12, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 479
Quoting KennyNebraska:


I think that the reason he is doing what he is doing is specifically tailored so that you do not have to chase.

I've heard him say that people should just watch, and not do it themselves.


he makes it look so fun and i know he has inspired a whole new generation of storm chaser
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Levi...very nice update...very easy to understand. Thanks!
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517. IKE
Quoting JRRP:
Link
CMC
more strong 92L


Triplets in the ATL.
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92L still has a ways to go before it becomes a tropical depression.
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Quoting FloridaHeat:
i would like to chase a hurricane and after seeing oz on the camera i think i can do it also


I think that the reason he is doing what he is doing is specifically tailored so that you do not have to chase.

I've heard him say that people should just watch, and not do it themselves.
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what is ACE
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Quoting stillwaiting:
Its looks like its going to be hyperactive,i bet this season w/be second to 05's ace when its all said and done,wouldn't rule out a tc or sys in dec either....


Second place would be a tall order. In just the past 15 years, two seasons other than '05 had ACE over 200: '04 with 225, and '98 with 228. (Since 1950, a total of five seasons managed to acquire more than 200 [and 1955 was nearly there with 199].) Right now, we stand at 64, so second place would require nearly quadrupling what we have. (At this point in 2005, ACE stood at nearly double where we are now.)

My own guess is 170-180, approximately tying with '64, '99, '03, and '98.)
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


everyone is talking about

its called 92L now
So I see now. I came in on a page with GW and other "stuff"....
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511. 7544
cmc says go fish 92l lol
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CMC is out to lunch lol I don't see anything around the Caribbean to pull it that far N.
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i would like to chase a hurricane and after seeing oz on the camera i think i can do it also
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Quoting Jeff9641:
Whatever you people do don't let IKE have you guys caught with your pants down with his no storms in the Gulf scenario again.


uncall for
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Quoting stillwaiting:
......u thinking bout chasing him????,lol


Lol nah she'll come to me
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Quoting kmanislander:


That's certainly a possibility. When the data for Grantley Adams updates we will know one way or another


Hi Kman, I always appreciate your quick run-downs and measures to be on the alert for with each system.

When you said you were worried about 92L in the last blog, and StormW discussed the favorable conditions in place for rapid intensification of this system, I sat up.

What is your read on the next benchmark we should watch out for with 92L, in terms of gleaning some potential trends or patterns? By that I mean, what are you yourself looking for next with this system? Sorry if that doesn't make sense - I'm just trying to learn what things to observe in real-time, as opposed to waiting on long-range models. Thanks.
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92L looks like it is more of a threat to the Cayman islands and Yucatan at this point.
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504. JRRP
Link
CMC
more strong 92L
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Quoting DestinJeff:
Looks like L is the threater.

they are all named "L" on this map :P
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Anybody have a link to that site with those colorful green/red relative humidity soundings for sites all over the atlantic?
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Quoting Jeff9641:


You guys in the Cayman's maybe in some big trouble.


That applies equally to numerous other places, including the entire SE US and GOM.

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Its looks like its going to be hyperactive,i bet this season w/be second to 05's ace when its all said and done,wouldn't rule out a tc or sys in dec either....
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Levi,

great synopsis. quick question. can you tell me the website where you get the spghaetti model plots for various invests and tropical cyclones like the one you have posted? thanks
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It all depends on where the LLC forms with 92L. The further N it forms then SE TX could be in trouble. If it forms more to the S then it's most likely a shoe in for MX. If HP holds where the GFS is showing it probably won't matter anyways and it becomes Alex part 2. Seems to be the year of recurve and MX so far in this 2010 season. Things could still change that far out and a trough could weaken the ridge and allow 92L to get further N. Sure seems like we are still stuck in the same pattern.
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Quoting StormW:


Agreed!


The ASCAT pass caught the Eastern half of the circulation. If the other half looks as good 92L is very close to TD status.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:
who wins the race to Julia?

Invest 92L?
Wave behind Igor?


The wave behind Igor. 92L will need to clear the eastern Caribbean.
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491. IKE
NOGAPS takes 92L over Haiti in 96 hours...Link
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Quoting stillwaiting:
......u thinking bout chasing him????,lol

You may need a boat, not a car, to chase the remnants of Hermine. Hermine is a nasty rainmaker!!!
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488. HadesGodWyvern (Mod)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
TROPICAL STORM MERANTI (T1010)
0:00 AM JST September 10 2010
================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon In South China Sea

at 15:00 PM UTC, Tropical Storm Meranti (992 hPa) located at 23.6N 118.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 knots with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 11 knots

Dvorak Intensity:

Gale Force Winds
==================
140 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
70 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
========================
24 HRS: 27.7N 119.1E - Tropical Depression
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.