Flooding, tornadoes for TX, OK; dangerous 92L forms; 4th hottest summer for U.S.

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:41 PM GMT on September 09, 2010

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Dangerous flash flooding is occurring in Eastern Oklahoma this morning, where rainfall rates as heavy as three inches per hour from the remains of Tropical Storm Hermine are occurring. A large area of Eastern Oklahoma received 3 - 6 inches of rain last night and this morning, with radar-estimated rainfall amounts as high as fifteen inches (Figure 2.) Yesterday, Hermine killed two people in Texas, who were attempting to cross flood waters in their vehicles. Hermine dropped 6 - 8 inches of rain in the Dallas/Fort Worth area, creating moderate to major flooding along the Trinity River in Dallas. Two tornadoes touched down near Dallas, and NOAA's Storm Prediction Center logged a total of eight tornado reports in Oklahoma and Texas from Hermine. The latest rainfall totals from NOAA's Hydrometeorological Prediction Center show 15.62" fell in Georgetown, Texas, with fifteen locations in Texas receiving over ten inches of rain. Big city rainfall totals included 7.57" at Austin, 6.73" at San Antonio, 6.52" at Dallas, and 7.20" at Fort Worth.


Figure 1. Radar estimated rainfall for the Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas area from Hermine shows a large area of 6+ inches of rain, with maximum amounts of ten inches.

Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall for eastern Oklahoma, where up to fifteen inches of rain fell last night and this morning.

Potentially dangerous Lesser Antilles tropical disturbance 92L forms
A tropical disturbance (92L) has developed over the extreme southeastern Caribbean just north of the coast of South America, over the southernmost Lesser Antilles Islands. Surface observations indicate that pressures have been slowly falling at a number of stations, and satellite loops show a modest region of heavy thunderstorm activity is building. A strong flow of upper level easterly winds is creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and the waters are plenty warm for development. Water vapor satellite loops show a large area of dry air lies over the northern Caribbean, but this dry air should not interfere with development over the next two days.

The disturbance is slowly drifting westward, but steering currents favor a more northwest motion Friday and Saturday. Lower shear lies over the Central Caribbean, away from the coast of South America, so any northward component of motion will allow for more significant development. There is drier air to the north, but 92L is steadily moistening the atmosphere in the Caribbean, so dry air may not be a problem for it. There is substantial model support for development. The disturbance is in a dangerous location for development, and gives me the greatest concern of any Atlantic disturbance so far this year. The models predict that by Saturday, 92L will bring heavy rains to Puerto Rico. These rains will then spread to the Dominican Republic on Sunday, and Haiti, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba on Monday. The longer range track of 92L is uncertain, and will strongly depend on where the storm drifts during the next two days. The ECMWF and GFS models predict a more southerly path through the Western Caribbean towards Belize and Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, and the NOGAPS and Canadian models predict a more northerly path along the length of Cuba towards Florida. NHC is giving 92L a 40% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday. Stay tuned.


Figure 3. Morning satellite image of the potentially dangerous disturbance in the Southeast Caribbean.

Igor
Tropical Storm Igor is barely hanging on in the face of 20 - 25 knots of winds shear, courtesy of strong upper-level winds out of the east. The shear has exposed Igor's low level circulation to view, and the storm has just one small spot of heavy thunderstorms near its center. Once Igor gets another 200 miles away from Africa, the shear should decline to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, and allow steady strengthening to occur. Waters are warm, 28°C, and the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) is well north of Igor, so the storm should intensity once the shear drops. The models are pretty unanimous about developing Igor into a hurricane 3 - 5 days from now. Igor will track west to west-northwest over the next week, with long range forecasts from the GFS and ECMWF models putting the storm several hundred miles northeast of the Lesser Antilles Islands a week from now. Climatology shows that about 20% of all tropical cyclones that have existed at Igor's current position have gone on to hit the U.S. East Coast; these odds are 10% for the U.S. Gulf Coast, 5% for Puerto Rico, and 10% for Canada. The forecast steering pattern for the coming two weeks from the GFS model shows a continuation of the pattern we've seen all hurricane season, with regular strong troughs of low pressure moving off the U.S. East Coast. This pattern favors Igor eventually recurving out to sea without affecting any land areas, and the odds of Igor hitting land are lower than climatology.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS, NOGAPS, and ECMWF models predict the development of a new tropical wave off the coast of Africa 4 - 6 days from now.

Hottest summer in history for 50 million Americans
The U.S. had its fourth warmest summer since record keeping began 116 years ago, according to statistics issued yesterday by the National Climatic Data Center. Only 1936, 2006 and 1934 were hotter. Ten states had their warmest summer on record--Rhode Island, New Jersey, Delaware, Maryland, Virginia, North Carolina, Tennessee, South Carolina, Georgia and Alabama. Seventeen other states had a top-ten warmest summer, including five states that had their second warmest summer in history (Figure 4.) No states had a top-ten coldest summer. Record daily highs outpaced record daily lows by about 4 to 1 during the summer, with 5,287 daily record highs set, and 1,426 record lows. The summer warmth was a pretty remarkable swing from this past winter, which was the 18th coldest in U.S. history.


Figure 4. State-by-state temperature rankings for the summer of 2010. Image credit: National Climatic Data Center.

According to Chris Burt, author of Extreme Weather, approximately 50 - 60 million Americans experienced their hottest summer ever. No summer in U.S. history has affected so many Americans as "hottest-summer-on-record". The following large cities all posted a record hottest summer:

Washington D.C. National Airport: 81.3° (old record 80.0° summer of 1943)
Dulles Airport, VA: 77.8° (old record 76.8° summer of 2007)
Richmond, VA: 81.3° (old record 80.0° summer of 1994)
Atlantic City, NJ: 77.5° (old record 75.8° summer of 2005)
Philadelphia, PA: 79.6° (old record 78.9° summer of 1995)
New York City (Central Park): 77.8° (old record 77.3° summer of 1966)
Trenton, NJ: 77.7° (old record 76.5° summer of 1898)
Wilmington, DE: 77.8° (old record 77.7° summer of 1900)
Baltimore, MD: 79.2° (old record 79.1° summer of 1943)
Norfolk, VA: 81.1° (old record 80.0° summer of 1994)
Tampa, FL: 84.5° (previous record 84.2° in 1998)
Lakeland, FL: 84.6° (previous record 84.4° in 1987)
St. Petersburg, FL: 85.6° (old record 84.6° in 1987)

Santa Barbara, CA was the only major U.S. city that had its coldest summer on record, though several other California cities were unusually cool. San Diego had its 3rd coolest summer, and the Los Angeles airport had its 2nd coolest summer.

Fortunately, it was a very wet summer, and the record heat did not lead to widespread drought. Summer 2010 ranked as the 16th wettest summer in the 116-year record for the contiguous U.S. Wisconsin had its wettest summer on record, and six other states had a top-ten wettest summer. No state had a top-ten driest summer.

Next post
I'll have an update Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

Tornado from TS Hermine, Dallas, TX (Richochet)
Tornado (bright area, middle of photo over flooded Trinity River, form during an evening squall from TS Hermine
Tornado from TS Hermine, Dallas, TX
Hermine is on the way (BBedford)
Wave action on Padre Island,near Bob Hall pier this afternoon. Rain bands are already coming ashore.
Hermine is on the way
Tornado Damage Dallas, TX (Bordonaro)
An EF-2 Tornado (winds 111-115MPH) spawned by TD Hermine 9-8-10@ 6:20PM CDT damages warehouse in Dallas, TX.
Tornado Damage Dallas, TX

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1636. BigToe
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


I'm an excellent driver!

Evenin' folks....LMAO
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1635. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:


I was about to send you an email to ask you the same thing. Great minds think alike (maybe)? LOL.

It is going good for the most part. Just getting the preqs done which I should have done by the end of the second semester. Definitely trying to adjust to the teaching styles and the way the quizzes and exams are presented.


LOL.

Glad to hear it's going fairly well. It's a bit of an adjustment for me as well since I have been homeschooled up until this point. Like you, it's mostly prereqs for me right now, but the math is no picnic.
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Quoting txjac:


I love BC ...only been there once but its beautiful


WOW You have a time machine???? Cool!
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Levi and Drak...you two have the potential to make a huge impact...best to you both...
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92 L is dying and dead
Gaston is dead
Igor is a fish if it even develops into a tropical storm again

YAAAWWWNNNN
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Quoting angiest:


Interestingly, Igor is following CLP5.


It'd be perfect if IGOR were to bomb into a hurricane as strong as Wilma...just as long as it followed the CLP5!
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
1629. Drakoen
Quoting Levi32:


How's school going so far for you, btw?


I was about to send you an email to ask you the same thing. Great minds think alike (maybe)? LOL.

It is going good for the most part. Just getting the preqs done which I should have done by the end of the second semester. Definitely trying to adjust to the teaching styles and the way the quizzes and exams are presented.
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1628. Levi32
Quoting Drakoen:


I'd have to agree. The models still have a long ways to go and the errors are very much evident. While I highly value the numerical computer forecast models, there's still a lot that needs to be done to improve the forecast even within the 5 day period.
One of the things I hoping to do with my degree(s) in the future is to help improve the models.


How's school going so far for you, btw?
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1627. angiest
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
What hump?



Interestingly, Igor is following CLP5.
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1626. Drakoen
Quoting nola70119:


Based on what? A computer programmers calculations extrapolated into what might happen in two weeks? The computer models are hard-pressed to forecast 78 hours in advance.


I'd have to agree. The models still have a long ways to go and the errors are very much evident. While I highly value the numerical computer forecast models, there's still a lot that needs to be done to improve the forecast even within the 5 day period.
One of the things I hoping to do with my degree(s) in the future is to help improve the models.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting JupiterFL:
Let me get this straight.
This blog has 1000 computer nerds with the social skills of Rainman wishing every thunderstorm into a CAT 5 hitting the US.
Yet IKE is called a caster of some sort when he posts nothing but data, models and graphs?
Get over yourselves.


I'm an excellent driver!
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1624. txjac
Quoting Levi32:


Nope, your local weather section and whatever says nothing about where you're from.


I love BC ...only been there once but its beautiful
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Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
What hump?



The BAMS is like..."I'll do anything to get into the Hebert box!"...
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
What is a female meteorologist’s response to a bad pickup line?


A Cold Front, lol
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Quoting JupiterFL:


Orca,
That sounds about right.


Good... I am not as lost as I thought I was..or at least I am not lost alone.
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1620. Levi32
Quoting Orcasystems:


it isn't?
Victoria BC, South tip of Vancouver Island.


Nope, your local weather section to the right of the blog and whatever says nothing about where you're from.
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
Thank you for stating the obvious to me too.
I thought the same thing when I saw the name.


Well BETSY doesn't sound like a killer! jajaja
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
1618. Levi32
Quoting Bordonaro:

Levi, will this pattern bring colder air from the Arctic regions into NW Canada, the Pacific NW into the Midwest and NE, leaving the S Plains and SE with above normal temps?


I don't know about the northeast US, but yes Alaska, western Canada, and probably the northwest US will be getting in on the cold this winter.
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What hump?

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Quoting Drakoen:


The system is not co-located with the upper air high. Still experiencing some 10-15 knots of shear. The low pressure center still to the east of the convection.... Little engine that could


Gotcha. Thanks
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Quoting Levi32:


Indeed....where on earth do you live again? I always forget and it's not on your blog.


it isn't?
Victoria BC, South tip of Vancouver Island.
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Quoting Levi32:
Check out the PSD long-range ensemble mean MSLP for Day 15. Sub-1004 pressures across the Gulf of Mexico. Basically that's the ensemble mean seeing a big hurricane in the gulf at that time.



Based on what? A computer programmers calculations extrapolated into what might happen in two weeks? The computer models are hard-pressed to forecast 78 hours in advance.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting txag91met:
Why name a storm Igor? You know it is going to be a bad one...like Ike and Ivan.

Thank you for stating the obvious to me too.
I thought the same thing when I saw the name.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5648
Wow, I didn't know they had posted TS Watches for the CV islands. I have never seen that before.
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
Quoting Orcasystems:
OK, lets see if I read these models right...
IGOR, suppose to go almost anywhere... except... get this, people will love me saying it... DUE WEST

And....the models have absolutely NFI where 92L is going.

BTW, the old Gastooon almost looks in better shape.

Is that about right?



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI


Orca,
That sounds about right.
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Quoting Levi32:
Massive change to the northern hemispheric longwave pattern is coming during the final week of September. This could be the beginning of the winter pattern starting to take shape and being seen by the models, and they are all seeing it now.

Not to be selfish lol, but the most pronounced feature being seen in this pattern is the development of the polar vortex and putting the anchoring hemispheric low right into Alaska in 15 days. The depth/strength of the trough over Alaska and the northeast Pacific shown unanimously by all of the ensemble means is astounding, especially for this time of year.

GFS:



CMC:



NAEFS:


Levi, will this pattern bring colder air from the Arctic regions into NW Canada, the Pacific NW into the Midwest and NE, leaving the S Plains and SE with above normal temps?
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1608. Drakoen
Quoting JupiterFL:


Drak,
Is this probably based on the anticyclone that Cybrteddy just posted?


The system is not co-located with the upper air high. Still experiencing some 10-15 knots of shear. The low pressure center still to the east of the convection.... Little engine that could
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....This new info is not good.......
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Quoting Landfall2004:
New to the blog--been lurking since I found y'all--I think during the 2004 season when Frances and Jeanne made landfall 2 miles from my front door....and Wilma blew thru here 13 months later. NOT looking forward to an active season. Thank you for keeping me informed, educated and entertained!
Long-time first-time! 2004!
Welcome to the blogs.
Member Since: August 3, 2005 Posts: 10 Comments: 5648
1605. Levi32
Quoting Orcasystems:


For you and I, winter is going to suck... for those southerners... they will be happy the ice pack is growing... sounds like a win for them.. and snow shovels for us.


Indeed....where on earth do you live again? I always forget and it's not on your blog.
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Good Evening everyone.
Member Since: May 10, 2007 Posts: 110 Comments: 7039
OK, lets see if I read these models right...

IGOR, suppose to go almost anywhere... except... get this, people will love me saying it... DUE WEST

And....the models have absolutely NFI where 92L is going.

BTW, the old Gastooon almost looks in better shape.

Is that about right?



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Member Since: June 29, 2009 Posts: 13 Comments: 5315
Quoting Drakoen:
Igor is pissed he got downgraded to a TD. Firing -80C to near -90C cloud tops.



Drak,
Is this probably based on the anticyclone that Cybrteddy just posted?
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Did Igor go Poof?
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1599. JLPR2
Quoting Drakoen:
Igor is pissed he got downgraded to a TD. Firing -80C to near -90C cloud tops.



haha! Yeah, intense, I guess it is safe to say the merger is over and that Igor is ready to go nuts.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
1598. xcool
TROPICAL DEPRESSION IGOR ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112010
500 PM AST THU SEP 09 2010

...IGOR WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.0N 26.4W
ABOUT 155 MI...255 KM WNW OF THE SOUTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 13 MPH...20 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
Quoting Levi32:
Massive change to the northern hemispheric longwave pattern is coming during the final week of September. This could be the beginning of the winter pattern starting to take shape and being seen by the models, and they are all seeing it now.

Not to be selfish lol, but the most pronounced feature being seen in this pattern is the development of the polar vortex and putting the anchoring hemispheric low right into Alaska in 15 days. The depth/strength of the trough over Alaska and the northeast Pacific shown unanimously by all of the ensemble means is astounding, especially for this time of year.

GFS:



CMC:



NAEFS:



Going to be a long winter up here by the looks of that and the fact that it is raining and 46 degrees!
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Quoting Levi32:


It's not necessarily exceptional, but to have all of the major model ensemble systems showing this unanimously at the same time-frame is quite amazing. The reason I'm excited is because this is the kind of pattern that we could end up with this winter with the negative PDO and positive AO combined. It's the start of what should be one of the worst winters in decades for Alaska, and with the polar vortex taking shape strongly a lot of areas that have been warm are going to turn cold relative to normal. The ensemble means have the anchoring hemispheric low right over Alaska in 2 weeks.

More than that, it does tie in a bit with the tropics because the tropics are affected by changes in the hemispheric pattern in the mid-latitudes. How can they not be? In this case, all this is would do is reinforce ridging over eastern Canada and the northern US, amplifying the lower-than-normal heights we see in the SW Atlantic Basin, which is why we are seeing such low pressures in the Caribbean on the ensemble means. This pattern should be leading to a lighting up of the SW Atlantic Basin, meaning the Caribbean, GOM, and SW Atlantic, as we dig deeper into September and into October. It is a pattern that would put the United States at great risk.


For you and I, winter is going to suck... for those southerners... they will be happy the ice pack is growing... sounds like a win for them.. and snow shovels for us.
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1595. xcool
igor td 35k now
Member Since: September 26, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 15684
1594. Levi32
Quoting TOMSEFLA:
levi,how is this fotrecast change going to effect the tropics


See #1591
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1592. Drakoen
Igor is pissed he got downgraded to a TD. Firing -80C to near -90C cloud tops.

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1591. Levi32
Quoting lunabaas2:


Hi. I know this isn't directly `tropical`, but it is intriguing. Can you elaborate more? I'm not really that up on why this is so exceptional or what the effects may be.
TIA


It's not necessarily exceptional, but to have all of the major model ensemble systems showing this unanimously at the same time-frame is quite amazing. The reason I'm excited is because this is the kind of pattern that we could end up with this winter with the negative PDO and positive AO combined. It's the start of what should be one of the worst winters in decades for Alaska, and with the polar vortex taking shape strongly a lot of areas that have been warm are going to turn cold relative to normal. The ensemble means have the anchoring hemispheric low right over Alaska in 2 weeks.

More than that, it does tie in a bit with the tropics because the tropics are affected by changes in the hemispheric pattern in the mid-latitudes. How can they not be? In this case, all this is would do is reinforce ridging over eastern Canada and the northern US, amplifying the lower-than-normal heights we see in the SW Atlantic Basin, which is why we are seeing such low pressures in the Caribbean on the ensemble means. This pattern should be leading to a lighting up of the SW Atlantic Basin, meaning the Caribbean, GOM, and SW Atlantic, as we dig deeper into September and into October. It is a pattern that would put the United States at great risk.

GFS Day 15 500mb height normalized anomaly:

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Hi Storm,

You don' think... Igor/... Ike...

maybe?... NAWWWWWW!!!
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Quoting wxvoyeur:


Interesting, a good month early.
levi,how is this fotrecast change going to effect the tropics
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
You see.
Some humor is fine. we all have a unique sense of humor.
.

Different strokes for different folks.


I agree humor is a great mechanism, just gets really tiresome when all you see from some people are jokes
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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