Hermine drenching Texas; Gaston's remains less organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:21 PM GMT on September 07, 2010

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Tropical Storm Hermine hit the Mexican coast 40 miles south of the Texas border at 9:30 pm EDT last night, with 60 mph sustained winds. Top winds observed in Texas from the storm were 50 mph with gusts to 59 mph at Port Isabel near the Mexican border, and winds at Brownsville hit 45 mph, gusting to 69 mph. Harlingen had the highest gust observed from Hermine, 72 mph, and local storm reports indicate that half of the city lost power and a roof caved in on an apartment complex, with no injuries. Heavy rains have fallen along a 30-mile wide stretch of the Mexican and Texas coast, with 1.41" reported thus far in Harlingen, 3.71" at Brownsville, and 2.00" at Corpus Christi. Radar estimated rainfall amounts (Figure 3) exceed four inches along most of the Lower Texas coast, with maximum amounts near eleven inches twenty miles north of Brownsville.


Figure 1. Radar image of Hermine at landfall.


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Hermine at 12:45pm EDT Monday September 6, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Hermine became a tropical depression at 11pm Sunday night, and intensified into a 65 mph tropical storm in just 21 hours, an extremely fast intensification rate. It turns out that the southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, where Hermine formed, is prone to these sort of rapidly intensifying tropical storms. This region produced two similar rapidly intensifying storms in 2007, Humberto and Lorenzo. Since 6-hourly position records of Atlantic hurricanes began in 1970, Hurricane Humberto holds the record for fastest intensification from first advisory issued to hurricane strength--18 hours. (Actually, Humberto did the feat in 14 1/4 hours, but this was rounded off to 18 hours in the final data base, which stores points every six hours). The curvature and topography of the land surrounding the Bay of Campeche help induce a counter-clockwise spin to the air over the region, which helps get tropical storms spinning up unusually quickly. Helping the spin-up process yesterday for Hermine were the very warm 30°C waters, low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and moist atmosphere.


Figure 3. Morning radar-estimated rainfall for Hermine.

Forecast for Hermine
Heavy rain and isolated tornadoes will continue across southern and central Texas today and tomorrow. Hermine is expected to accelerate northward today, limiting the potential for damaging floods along its future path. The storm's rains will help alleviate moderate to severe drought conditions affecting Central Texas.

Gaston's remains less organized
Dry air has significantly disrupted the remains of Tropical Storm Gaston, which are now over the northern Lesser Antilles Islands and Puerto Rico. Morning visible satellite imagery shows that Gaston's remains no longer have a well-defined surface circulation, though there is still some spin. Latest radar out of Martinique and Puerto Rico show a few heavy rain showers moving through the islands, but no organization to the showers. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops. None of the computer models show Gaston redeveloping, and NHC has downgraded the odds of development to 10%. I think the odds should be higher than this, perhaps 30%. Gaston's remains will be disrupted some on Wednesday, when they will encounter the high terrain of Hispaniola.

Elsewhere in the tropics
There are two tropical waves off the coast of Africa that NHC is giving a 10% chances of developing into tropical depressions by Thursday. The models are fairly unanimous in predicting development of one or more tropical waves off the coast of Africa 3 - 7 days from now. The next storm will be called Igor.

Eastern Pacific Tropical Depression 11E kills 44 in Guatemala
In the Eastern Pacific, heavy rains from Tropical Depression 11E killed at least 44 people in Guatemala over the weekend. At least 56 are injured, and 16 missing. The heavy rains triggered fifteen landslides that hit portions of the Inter-American Highway, burying a number of vehicles and a bus. Guatemala is still recovering from the impacts of Tropical Storm Agatha, which killed 287 people in the country and did over $1 billion in damage.


Figure 4. Satellite image from Friday, September 3, 2010, showing Tropical Depression 11E over Guatemala. Image credit: NASA.

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 30 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

Next post
I'll have an update Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

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3013. poknsnok
2:23 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Quoting StormW:
Not good:



why
Member Since: August 17, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 222
3011. Jax82
1:30 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Rise and Shine
Member Since: September 2, 2008 Posts: 1 Comments: 1261
3010. mississippiman
1:28 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Just a quick question...Looking at the visible sattelite of the Carribean, there appears to be a huge swirl just South of Western Cuba...anything to be concerned about?
Member Since: August 6, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 14
3009. InTheCone
1:27 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
I know, I know, it's the NAM, but I am using it to illustrate the point that quite a few models are trying to develop that piece of energy that is entering the southeast carrib., which you can see on the satellite in post 3005.

Something to keep an eye on, wonder if that is the remains of 99l...

Nam @ 84 hrs...

Member Since: September 1, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 1979
3008. IKE
1:26 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
NEW BLOG!
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
3007. pensacolastorm
1:24 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
What is spinning at 18N 34W? This is not 91L is it?
Member Since: July 30, 2006 Posts: 0 Comments: 203
3005. GeoffreyWPB
1:22 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10589
3003. wayfaringstranger
1:22 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Quoting reedzone:


Like I said, the EURO does NOT recurve 91L, takes it north of the islands, but doesn't curve it north, heads WNW, WSW near the islands, then heads NW to WNW, north of the islands.. Pretty much heading towards the CONUS. The high is too strong and elongated for 91L to get picked up on this run. The GFS has switched to this idea on the 06Z run as well, gotta see if this trend continues with the GFS. The EURO has been showing this ever since it started forming 91L.


Thanks Reed. What does the CMC and ECMWF show?
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 235
3002. Orcasystems
1:21 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Gaston.... still there :(
91L seems to be playing follow the leader....




AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26493
3001. spartankicker
1:20 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Quoting StormW:


Current run of the forecast wind shear map, out to 108 hours. NO shear in the Caribbean, and two upper level anticyclones on the map...one at 40W, and the other just developing off the African coast. And, you can pretty much pick out the jetstream across North America


Looks like another anticyclone due south of Puerto Rico, too.
Member Since: July 20, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 39
3000. Gearsts
1:20 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Quoting StormW:


Current run of the forecast wind shear map, out to 108 hours. NO shear in the Caribbean, and two upper level anticyclones on the map...one at 40W, and the other just developing off the African coast. And, you can pretty much pick out the jetstream across North America
GFS shows 2 cape verde storms moving west.Crazy!
Member Since: August 2, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1036
2999. reedzone
1:19 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Quoting wayfaringstranger:
So your not seeing any weaknesses in the AB ridge? No trof's? How far out is this for?


Like I said, the EURO does NOT recurve 91L, takes it north of the islands, but doesn't curve it north, heads WNW, WSW near the islands, then heads NW to WNW, north of the islands.. Pretty much heading towards the CONUS. The high is too strong and elongated for 91L to get picked up on this run. The GFS has switched to this idea on the 06Z run as well, gotta see if this trend continues with the GFS. The EURO has been showing this ever since it started forming 91L.
Member Since: July 1, 2008 Posts: 13 Comments: 7334
2997. 22miNofGalv
1:15 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Just an amateur but, I dunno....it looks like Gaston has angered a little since NHC hung that 0% chance on it.
Member Since: September 12, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 3
2996. wayfaringstranger
1:13 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Quoting StormW:


Current run of the forecast wind shear map, out to 108 hours. NO shear in the Caribbean, and two upper level anticyclones on the map...one at 40W, and the other just developing off the African coast. And, you can pretty much pick out the jetstream across North America
So your not seeing any weaknesses in the AB ridge? No trof's? How far out is this for?
Member Since: July 12, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 235
2995. angiest
1:12 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Quoting seajunkie:
Denton, TX which is North of Dallas is getting drenched with alot of heavy rain with a brisk wind. Lots of street and creek flooding. Standing water everywhere. I almost needed a conoe to take the son to school this A.M. Hermine is not giving up.


Howdy! My in-laws are from north of Denton, looks likey the are getting it too.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
2994. GeoffreyWPB
1:11 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10589
2992. alexhurricane1991
1:08 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Quoting xCat6Hurricane:


Translate that map for me please
Im not storm but it is showing basically that shear will be nonexistant in the caribbean.
Member Since: April 8, 2010 Posts: 15 Comments: 2570
2991. MNhockeymama
1:08 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Quoting tkeith:
lung wise, perhaps a quick walk around the block each morning can supplement the inhaling and exhaling that you will miss.

a mile and a half on the treadmill in the mornin instead of cigs. two and a half miles when I get home from work.

gritting my teeth the rest of the day...the cravings will eventually pass, I know too many people that have quit, I'm pretty P.O.'d at cigs right now :)


I quit while walking the breast cancer 3 day a couple of weeks ago. It is so hard. Kudos to you for doing it!!! (Now if I could just get my husband off 'em we'd have a lot more $$$ every month!)
Member Since: September 4, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 124
2990. seajunkie
1:08 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Denton, TX which is North of Dallas is getting drenched with alot of heavy rain with a brisk wind. Lots of street and creek flooding. Standing water everywhere. I almost needed a conoe to take the son to school this A.M. Hermine is not giving up.
Member Since: September 4, 2009 Posts: 0 Comments: 46
2989. angiest
1:06 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Quoting xCat6Hurricane:


Translate that map for me please


Ooh ooh let me!
Looks like very low show through much of the tropical Atlantic. However, there are some pockets of shear that systems like 91L must traverse first.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
2988. breald
1:06 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Quoting Vero1:
Wondering if the energy from Gaston will pull a FAY



Faye was a horrible storm for me. My neighborhood in Jax flooded and we had a ton of snakes all over the place. Not nice snakes either. YUCK!!
Member Since: May 28, 2008 Posts: 38 Comments: 5303
2986. rmbjoe1954
1:05 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Quoting StormW:
Not good:



Hello Storm: That shows that the door is closing for any northward turn on anything that crosses the Atlantic, right?
Member Since: June 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1015
2985. LADobeLady
1:05 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Quoting xCat6Hurricane:
I'm in saint louis, MO and i see people boarding up in preperation for TD Hermine, this is very humorious to me after coming from a hurricane hotspot (FL)


One of the funniest things I've ever witnessed is when we evacuated for Gustav. I live in Houma, LA which was ground zero for Gustav. We went to Minden, LA. After checking into our hotel we went to the local Wal Mart to get a few things. There were people literally running with buggies full of food. One worker had a pallet of oil lamps and was pulling it out and he was mobbed like it was a Black Friday sale. I asked a man what was going on and he said, "The hurricane's a commin' we gotta stock up and prepare." We stayed a week, the worst that Minden got was a few days of rain, nothing too heavy.
Member Since: July 29, 2005 Posts: 21 Comments: 794
2984. xCat6Hurricane
1:04 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Quoting StormW:
Not good:



Translate that map for me please
Member Since: July 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 111
2983. TheDawnAwakening
1:04 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
91L looks to be sheared by easterly shear at the moment. Low level circulation with the invest looks very well defined and just needs some shear to relax before appreciable development can be allowed to occur with the system.
Member Since: October 21, 2008 Posts: 243 Comments: 3564
2980. angiest
1:01 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Quoting KanKunKid:
I'll forget about Ex Gaston when NHC takes the (tired) Floater off of him. If they're still watching him, so am I. Gaston's a riverboat gambler, he has a few tricks up his sleeve yet..


Not surprised he's at 0% given where he is right now, over the mountainous terrain of Hispaniola. Maybe that and/or Cuba will finally do him in, but it just seems like he may hang on long enough.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
2979. BobinTampa
12:59 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
bloggus deceasedus.

Member Since: August 14, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 526
2978. GeoffreyWPB
12:58 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
08/1200 UTC 13.7N 23.3W T1.0/1.0 91L

08/0600 UTC 14.1N 22.7W T1.0/1.0 91L
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 10589
2977. xCat6Hurricane
12:53 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
I'm in saint louis, MO and i see people boarding up in preperation for TD Hermine, this is very humorious to me after coming from a hurricane hotspot (FL)
Member Since: July 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 111
2976. xCat6Hurricane
12:53 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
I'm in saint louis, MO and i see people boarding up in preperation for TD Hermine, this is very humorious to me after coming from a hurricane hotspot (FL)
Member Since: July 19, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 111
2975. surfmom
12:51 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Quoting tkeith:
Gaston could easily still be a catalyst in the tinder box A.K.A the Carribean...

I heard on the news this mornin a 5 acre brush fire was statred by a guy hitting a rock with a golf club...it dont take much when the conditions are right.
yup...sometimes it's those little ...details
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
2973. tkeith
12:51 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
lung wise, perhaps a quick walk around the block each morning can supplement the inhaling and exhaling that you will miss.

a mile and a half on the treadmill in the mornin instead of cigs. two and a half miles when I get home from work.

gritting my teeth the rest of the day...the cravings will eventually pass, I know too many people that have quit, I'm pretty P.O.'d at cigs right now :)
Member Since: November 1, 2004 Posts: 25 Comments: 8912
2972. IKE
12:50 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Tropical Atlantic on....

day 100....
83 days left.....


Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
2970. DoubleAction
12:48 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Tough to call whether Igor will be a fish, GFS puts a break in the ridge northeast of the Antilles while Nogaps shows a weaker influence of this low in 7 days. We got plenty of time to watch this unfold.
Member Since: August 13, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 159
2969. koneofdeath
12:48 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Quoting tkeith:


I'm with you KanKunKid...


Was it Gustov last year. Proclaimed to be dead 3x and then made a come back?
Member Since: June 15, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 35
2967. surfmom
12:47 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Quoting muddertracker:
Nice metaphor and personification...can I use this in my 6th grade ELA class today?

LOL - I'd love it --
teachers are my hero's : )

Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
2966. surfmom
12:45 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Quoting xCat6Hurricane:
They key of saying 0% is that's only in the next 48 hours without a doubt i believe this will develop soon enough.

oooooooOOOOOOOOHHHHHHH - light bulb goes on
Member Since: July 18, 2007 Posts: 30 Comments: 26536
2963. muddertracker
12:45 PM GMT on September 08, 2010
Quoting surfmom:


He's a poker player w/Sunglasses on & an Ace up his sleeve - he's juicing on the the muscle milk in the carib and eyeballing the gomex..... I think he's a shifty con man ...
Nice metaphor and personification...can I use this in my 6th grade ELA class today?
Member Since: August 16, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 2316

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.