Intensifying Hermine closes in on the Texas/Mexico coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:47 PM GMT on September 06, 2010

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Steadily intensifying Tropical Storm Hermine is closing in on the coast near the Texas/Mexico border, and should move ashore late tonight. Hermine became a tropical depression at 11pm last night, and could become a minimal hurricane by 11 pm tonight. Hermine's rate of intensification from nothing to a strong tropical storm is one of the fastest on record. It turns out that the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, where Hermine formed, is prone to these sort of rapidly intensifying tropical storms. The curvature and topography of the land help induce a counter-clockwise spin to the air over the region, which helps get tropical storms spinning up unusually quickly. Helping the spin-up process are the very warm 30°C waters, low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and moist atmosphere. Hermine promises to be a very wet storm, and latest long range radar out of Brownsville, Texas shows a large area of heavy rain has been drenching southern Texas and northern Mexico all afternoon, with radar estimated rainfall amounts exceeding two inches in a few areas along the coast. Radar loops show that an eyewall is attempting to form, but a region of dry air from over land spiraled into Hermine's core between 4 - 5pm EDT, disrupting eyewall formation. However, it now appears that Hermine has closed off its eye from this dry air, which should aid in intensification. Satellite imagery shows Hermine has vigorous thunderstorms with very cold tops, and improving low-level spiral banding.

Forecast for Hermine
Hermine doesn't have much time over water before it comes ashore, which is a good thing. The storm is steadily organizing, and has a shot at reaching hurricane strength before the center moves ashore late tonight, near midnight. Heavy rain will be the main threat from Hermine, though isolated tornadoes may also cause damage, particularly over South Texas. Hermine is expected to accelerate through Central Texas Tuesday and Wednesday, and the storm's rains will help alleviate moderate to severe drought conditions affecting Central Texas.


Figure 1. Late afternoon radar image of Tropical Storm Hermine. Note the band of dry air spiraling into the core of the storm from the north.

Gaston continues to suffer from dry air
An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft spent the afternoon in Gaston's remains, and found a weak 1012 mb center of low pressure with only a limited region of westerly winds on the south side of the center of circulation. Top surface winds uncontaminated by heavy rain seen by their SFMR instrument were in the 30 - 35 mph range. The airplane found plenty of dry air in the storm's environment, and there are not enough heavy thunderstorms in ex-Gaston's circulation for it to qualify as a tropical depression. The remains of Gaston are now approaching the northern Lesser Antilles, and residents can expect a few heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 40 mph beginning early this evening and continuing into the night. Latest radar out of Martinique doesn't show much in the way of heavy rain, and satellite imagery confirms that the thunderstorm activity associated with Gaston's remains is quite sparse. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops.


Figure 2. Afternoon satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Forecast for Gaston
There is little change to the forecast for Gaston's remains. Dry air will continue to be the major impediment to development, and the system is unlikely to become a tropical depression today. However, wind shear, which is currently a moderate 10 knots, is forecast by the latest SHIPS model run to fall very low, 0 - 5 knots, tonight through Wednesday. With almost no wind shear affecting it, Gaston will a better chance of keeping the moisture from its heavy thunderstorms near its core on Tuesday. This will insulate the storm from the dry air surrounding it. The atmosphere is also moister in the eastern Caribbean, further increasing the chances of development. I believe it is probable Gaston will become a tropical depression again on Tuesday. NHC is currently giving Gaston a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, which is a reasonable forecast.

Heavy rain showers and gusty winds from the storm will affect Puerto Rico Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. This activity will spread to the Dominican Republic Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Assuming dry air and an encounter with Hispaniola's high mountains do not destroy Gaston, heavy rain from the storm should move over Haiti, eastern Cuba, and Jamaica Wednesday night and Thursday morning. The models don't give much support for Gaston surviving past Wednesday. The ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, Canadian, and HWRF models all dissipate Gaston. However, two models--the GFDL and UKMET--predict that Gaston will survive the dry air and an encounter with Hispaniola, and pass far enough south of the island to find a favorable environment in the Central Caribbean for development on Wednesday. Wind shear will be low, water temperatures will be hot, and the atmosphere will be plenty moist. Gaston could intensify into a hurricane in the Western Caribbean by the end of the week, as predicted by the latest run of the GFDL model.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The models are fairly unanimous in predicting development late this week of a tropical wave expected to emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday. The next storm will be called Igor.

Next post
I'll have an update in the morning.

Jeff Masters

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000
ABNT20 KNHC 070558
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE SEP 7 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM HERMINE...LOCATED ABOUT 10 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF
HARLINGEN TEXAS.

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS AND ADJACENT WATERS ARE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF
GASTON. THE CIRCULATION REMAINS POORLY DEFINED AND THE ENVIRONMENT
SURROUNDING THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BE ONLY MARGINALLY CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THEREFORE...THERE
IS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE AGAIN DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A SMALL LOW PRESSURE AREA LOCATED ABOUT 300 MILES WEST OF THE
NORTHERNMOST CAPE VERDE ISLANDS IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN
UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS
SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS LOCATED BETWEEN THE
CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE WEST COAST OF AFRICA IS ASSOCIATED WITH
A TROPICAL WAVE. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...OF THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED
TO BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH DURING THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF THIS
SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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2AM intermediate advisory out. Winds are still 60 mph, and the pressure still 991 mb. I'm impressed.
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Tell me those are future FISH please JRRP
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1383. JRRP
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1382. GBguy88
Quoting traumaboyy:


Absolutely....then the house starts making funny noises you swear you have never heard before...lol


I remember that during Ivan. You have a sense of comfort when the power is on, and then everything goes out (happened around 8PM for us, and the worst was between midnight and 3AM). It feels very finalizing when the power goes, like a "this is really it" feeling.
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1381. xcool
Rain: 1.13"
Gust: ESE 80,Heat Index: 81F
Humidity: 100%Harlingen, TX 78550
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1380. GBguy88
Quoting duckhookag:
I'm in Harlingen and the airport, just east of me, is right now getting sustained winds of 55 - 60 with a gust of 68.

Local radar shows what passes for the eye is moving almost due north about 15 - 20 miles inland.


This storm is holding intensity quite well after having been on land for several hours now.
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Quoting traumaboyy:


Absolutely....then the house starts making funny noises you swear you have never heard before...lol


The big swooshes of air down the chimney freaked me out.
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Well. I certainly had never heard glass patio doors flex!
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1377. xcool
CoopNTexas .welcome
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Thanks cooleo....looks to be heading NW there.
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Quoting SunnyDaysFla:
Its crummy that they are getting hit at night. It is spookier when you really can't see what is happening---then the lights go out.


Absolutely....then the house starts making funny noises you swear you have never heard before...lol
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Its crummy that they are getting hit at night. It is spookier when you really can't see what is happening---then the lights go out.
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1373. xcool
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Quoting duckhookag:
I'm in Harlingen and the airport, just east of me, is right now getting sustained winds of 55 - 60 with a gust of 68.

Local radar shows what passes for the eye is moving almost due north about 15 - 20 miles inland.


CycloneOz is getting close to Harlingen right now

link
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1371. xcool
Link

go here CoopNTexas

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Quoting JLPR2:


Yes I noticed, read a few pages back and was amazed at the seriousness LOL! Yet it wasn't so busy even with a landfalling system, that was odd.


I take hurricanes very serious....and if a major is headed towards Panama City I want you guys to tell all the jokes you can for me......I need to laugh while I am cleaning out my knickers....lol
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1369. JLPR2
Quoting traumaboyy:


Not looking too healthy there......was that a wobble??


Yep, looks like a NE wobble, but it's inland, it looks great for a storm that has been inland for awhile. XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
CMC ramps one of those up
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1367. JLPR2


Let see if this one does something, although the GFS says this one isn't Igor but the one behind it, which is supposed to absorb the one we are seeing now.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting JLPR2:
And there goes Hermine



Not looking too healthy there......was that a wobble??
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I'm in Harlingen and the airport, just east of me, is right now getting sustained winds of 55 - 60 with a gust of 68.

Local radar shows what passes for the eye is moving almost due north about 15 - 20 miles inland.
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0z CMC nothing with gastón but it sure does develop something behind it.

Cooleo, you have long range CMC? All i have is 144hrs.
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1363. JLPR2
Quoting traumaboyy:


I cannot agree more....but I have been slapped down today because we were speaking of other than Tropical issues and will not bring up that college sport I enjoy so much now.....but was reminded that I could be banned.......The evening shift was very serious!!


Yes I noticed, read a few pages back and was amazed at the seriousness LOL! Yet it wasn't so busy even with a landfalling system, that was odd.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
1362. JLPR2
And there goes Hermine

Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting JLPR2:


haha! Sure, got to smile and laugh or life would be bitter and crappy. :D


I cannot agree more....but I have been slapped down today because we were speaking of other than Tropical issues and will not bring up that college sport I enjoy so much now.....but was reminded that I could be banned.......The evening shift was very serious!!
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:
I'm out too...hope the peeps in South Texas (including my dad) awake to a nice day tomorrow. Thanks for the culture fatlady!

'Night P.I. and to all.
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1359. JLPR2
Got a decent rain shower just now, probably from that area of humidity to Gaston's NE, at least all of my classes are in the same building tomorrow or I would be miserable. :S
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
I'm out too...hope the peeps in South Texas (including my dad) awake to a nice day tomorrow. Thanks for the culture fatlady!
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Quoting CosmicEvents:
Another way the insurance companies take care of you is to have a separate clause that specifies a limit(usually $1000) on the most likely thing to fail in a hurricane....your pool or screen enclosure. That's separate from the hurricane deductible. So, if you have a $5000 pool enclosure, and a $4000 hurricane deductible, if you lose your enclosure and have other damage...you're out of pocket $8000. I hate insurance companies.


Well Spoken!!
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1356. JLPR2
Quoting traumaboyy:


LMFAO....Thanks JLPR2.....I was thinking that it was against the rules tonight to have fun in the blog!!!


haha! Sure, got to smile and laugh or life would be bitter and crappy. :D
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting KanKunKid:
Well Private Idaho, I'm going to leave it in your capable hands. It's past midnight CST and on the blog tonight my pompous ass-o-meter needle was all the way in the red a few times and I'm out of beer. I have to get up early in the morning so I can get a good start on my new project, apparently I have some growing up to do and it may take all day - I'm getting too old for this sh.. stuff.
It wasn't a holiday here today so tomorrow I will be getting calls from the States...
So have a good night, see you tomorrow!


Peace out!...you Krappy little Kid!
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Another way the insurance companies take care of you is to have a separate clause that specifies a limit(usually $1000) on the most likely thing to fail in a hurricane....your pool or screen enclosure. That's separate from the hurricane deductible. So, if you have a $5000 pool enclosure, and a $4000 hurricane deductible, if you lose your enclosure and have other damage...you're out of pocket $8000. I hate insurance companies.
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Dang! I was hoping for more Shakespeare...weather related of course ;^)


OK, I'm weak, I admit it. From another kind of Tempest, and another Bard...

"We are such stuff as dreams are made on..."
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Good night everyone! Be safe! Prayers go out to all in MX/TX in the aftermath of this storm.
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Quoting JLPR2:


Made me think of the Gerber commercial. LOL!


LMFAO....Thanks JLPR2.....I was thinking that it was against the rules tonight to have fun in the blog!!!
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Quoting KoritheMan:


XD


Hey Kori!!!

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1349. JLPR2
For real?


I guess we still got to watch it, just in case.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting ncforecaster:


Very true and I share your same concerns. As You, MLC, and others put it so well-it's about peoples safety first and foremost. It appears that some aren't aware just how much damage can occur from a strong TS (especially one that was in an intensification phase when it came ashore).

Based on the Brownsville obs, there is little doubt-in my mind anyway-that there will be quite a few trees down in the area. That alone can cause substantial damage and depending on who or what it might fall upon-even loss of life.

Before I call it a night myself, please let me say that I too believe that there may very well have been HF wind gusts in the Brownsville area. Even the 59 mph wind gust measured by "c150" with a hand held anemometer (I assume) supports that premise in that official wind gusts are representative of the max wind at a height of 10 m (33 feet) and they might not have actually measured the highest wind in the area and at the time of peak winds.

Most important of all, I just simply want to wish you, MLC, c150, and everyone else a safe and great rest of the night!:)


Thanks, you too!
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Quoting ncforecaster:


Very true and I share your same concerns. As You, MLC, and others put it so well-it's about peoples safety first and foremost. It appears that some aren't aware just how much damage can occur from a strong TS (especially one that was in an intensification phase when it came ashore).

Based on the Brownsville obs, there is little doubt-in my mind anyway-that there will be quite a few trees down in the area. That alone can cause substantial damage and depending on who or what it might fall upon-even loss of life.

Before I call it a night myself, please let me say that I too believe that there may very well have been HF wind gusts in the Brownsville area. Even the 59 mph wind gust measured by "c150" with a hand held anemometer (I assume) supports that premise in that official wind gusts are representative of the max wind at a height of 10 m (33 feet) and they might not have actually measured the highest wind in the area and at the time of peak winds.

Most important of all, I just simply want to wish you, MLC, c150, and everyone else a safe and great rest of the night!:)


Thanks, you too!
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1346. JLPR2
Quoting traumaboyy:


It is a good plan....and hopefully it will not double next year!!


Made me think of the Gerber commercial. LOL!
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Well Private Idaho, I'm going to leave it in your capable hands. It's past midnight CST and on the blog tonight my pompous ass-o-meter needle was all the way in the red a few times and I'm out of beer. I have to get up early in the morning so I can get a good start on my new project, apparently I have some growing up to do and it may take all day - I'm getting too old for this sh.. stuff.
It wasn't a holiday here today so tomorrow I will be getting calls from the States...
So have a good night, see you tomorrow!
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Quoting JLPR2:


*checks for fever*
LOL
The pressure in the islands is around 1012mb, hmm... I don't know but I think Gaston is almost dead, just a little bitty more and he's done specially if he meets any of the big islands. XD


Well that's a good thing...the more bullets dodged, the fewer in the clip.
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Quoting GBguy88:


I don't think that the winds were sustained at hurricane force, but certainly reached it in a few gusts. I don't know if that warrants upgrading it to a hurricane in a post analysis. Either way though, it's already clear that Hermine made a hefty mess of things in Brownsville. Good thing she didn't have another 12 hours over water, or this would have easily been another Humberto situation.


Yeah it probably never did become a hurricane, I'm just giving it an outside chance the NHC might do so after in depth study, either way, it has held quite an impressive stand over land!
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Have a good sleep, ncforecaster! Thanks.
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Quoting OceanMoan:


Yes. We still have a mortgage, so my biggest hurricane preparations this year has been to try to save as much money as possible to offset that deductible when and if we get a storm.


It is a good plan....and hopefully it will not double next year!!
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1340. xcool
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1339. JLPR2
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


looks like an Annular with a pinhole eye that is creating its own favorable environment!


*checks for fever*
LOL
The pressure in the islands is around 1012mb, hmm... I don't know but I think Gaston is almost dead, just a little bitty more and he's done specially if he meets any of the big islands. XD
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Anyone here see the musical Spamalot? When I look at Gaston I keep seeing the character who would lift up his head periodically to say--"I'm not dead yet." (then at the end he says "now I'm dead."
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Quoting fatlady99:
so sorry. :)

I said it was not my intention to argue with anyone, and once again I let myself be drawn in... although debate was not my intention.

Am taking my hands off the keyboard.... NOW!


Dang! I was hoping for more Shakespeare...weather related of course ;^)
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1336. xcool
tornadodude .anytime.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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