Intensifying Hermine closes in on the Texas/Mexico coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:47 PM GMT on September 06, 2010

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Steadily intensifying Tropical Storm Hermine is closing in on the coast near the Texas/Mexico border, and should move ashore late tonight. Hermine became a tropical depression at 11pm last night, and could become a minimal hurricane by 11 pm tonight. Hermine's rate of intensification from nothing to a strong tropical storm is one of the fastest on record. It turns out that the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, where Hermine formed, is prone to these sort of rapidly intensifying tropical storms. The curvature and topography of the land help induce a counter-clockwise spin to the air over the region, which helps get tropical storms spinning up unusually quickly. Helping the spin-up process are the very warm 30°C waters, low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and moist atmosphere. Hermine promises to be a very wet storm, and latest long range radar out of Brownsville, Texas shows a large area of heavy rain has been drenching southern Texas and northern Mexico all afternoon, with radar estimated rainfall amounts exceeding two inches in a few areas along the coast. Radar loops show that an eyewall is attempting to form, but a region of dry air from over land spiraled into Hermine's core between 4 - 5pm EDT, disrupting eyewall formation. However, it now appears that Hermine has closed off its eye from this dry air, which should aid in intensification. Satellite imagery shows Hermine has vigorous thunderstorms with very cold tops, and improving low-level spiral banding.

Forecast for Hermine
Hermine doesn't have much time over water before it comes ashore, which is a good thing. The storm is steadily organizing, and has a shot at reaching hurricane strength before the center moves ashore late tonight, near midnight. Heavy rain will be the main threat from Hermine, though isolated tornadoes may also cause damage, particularly over South Texas. Hermine is expected to accelerate through Central Texas Tuesday and Wednesday, and the storm's rains will help alleviate moderate to severe drought conditions affecting Central Texas.


Figure 1. Late afternoon radar image of Tropical Storm Hermine. Note the band of dry air spiraling into the core of the storm from the north.

Gaston continues to suffer from dry air
An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft spent the afternoon in Gaston's remains, and found a weak 1012 mb center of low pressure with only a limited region of westerly winds on the south side of the center of circulation. Top surface winds uncontaminated by heavy rain seen by their SFMR instrument were in the 30 - 35 mph range. The airplane found plenty of dry air in the storm's environment, and there are not enough heavy thunderstorms in ex-Gaston's circulation for it to qualify as a tropical depression. The remains of Gaston are now approaching the northern Lesser Antilles, and residents can expect a few heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 40 mph beginning early this evening and continuing into the night. Latest radar out of Martinique doesn't show much in the way of heavy rain, and satellite imagery confirms that the thunderstorm activity associated with Gaston's remains is quite sparse. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops.


Figure 2. Afternoon satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Forecast for Gaston
There is little change to the forecast for Gaston's remains. Dry air will continue to be the major impediment to development, and the system is unlikely to become a tropical depression today. However, wind shear, which is currently a moderate 10 knots, is forecast by the latest SHIPS model run to fall very low, 0 - 5 knots, tonight through Wednesday. With almost no wind shear affecting it, Gaston will a better chance of keeping the moisture from its heavy thunderstorms near its core on Tuesday. This will insulate the storm from the dry air surrounding it. The atmosphere is also moister in the eastern Caribbean, further increasing the chances of development. I believe it is probable Gaston will become a tropical depression again on Tuesday. NHC is currently giving Gaston a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, which is a reasonable forecast.

Heavy rain showers and gusty winds from the storm will affect Puerto Rico Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. This activity will spread to the Dominican Republic Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Assuming dry air and an encounter with Hispaniola's high mountains do not destroy Gaston, heavy rain from the storm should move over Haiti, eastern Cuba, and Jamaica Wednesday night and Thursday morning. The models don't give much support for Gaston surviving past Wednesday. The ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, Canadian, and HWRF models all dissipate Gaston. However, two models--the GFDL and UKMET--predict that Gaston will survive the dry air and an encounter with Hispaniola, and pass far enough south of the island to find a favorable environment in the Central Caribbean for development on Wednesday. Wind shear will be low, water temperatures will be hot, and the atmosphere will be plenty moist. Gaston could intensify into a hurricane in the Western Caribbean by the end of the week, as predicted by the latest run of the GFDL model.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The models are fairly unanimous in predicting development late this week of a tropical wave expected to emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday. The next storm will be called Igor.

Next post
I'll have an update in the morning.

Jeff Masters

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nice moonlightcowboy but remember now there are many varibles that go into this so you can't really base everything on the TPW product so to what you say I say maybe but we still need to watch it through the night and morning
Member Since: June 13, 2009 Posts: 2 Comments: 11033
Good Night.
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Quoting thelmores:


35-36F?

Pottery, I thought you lived in the Caribbean not the North Pole! LOL
Even if it's in Celsius, it's ridiculously hot.
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Quoting pottery:

I see that.
That's why I mentioned the Lovely Warm Rain.
Serves you right........


SA :)
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Quoting Leafgreen:

This is horrible. I can't remember a larger wave coming off the African coast.
What caught my attention is that the air around the wave is similar to a steam bath..It should spin up rather quickly once out past the Cape Verde Islands...I-GOR..
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...HERMINE MAKES LANDFALL IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...

DATA FROM THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN BROWNSVILLE TEXAS INDICATE THAT
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE MADE LANDFALL AROUND 830 PM CDT...0130 UTC
...ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ABOUT 40 MILES...65 KM
...SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL
WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 MPH...100 KM/HR.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Post 754, anyone? please.........
Member Since: July 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 276
Quoting KoritheMan:
000
WTNT65 KNHC 070138
TCUAT5
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
840 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010


...HERMINE MAKES LANDFALL IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...

DATA FROM THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN BROWNSVILLE TEXAS INDICATE THAT
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE MADE LANDFALL AROUND 830 PM CDT...0130 UTC
...ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ABOUT 40 MILES...65 KM
...SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL
WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 MPH...100 KM/HR.


SUMMARY OF 830 PM CDT...0130 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 97.4W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NNE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE
I was off by 12 miles. Not bad for a first try, but then again I was two hours off on landfall timing from four hours out. Oh well, I'm sure there will be others.
Member Since: August 28, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 112
826. IKE
Port Isabel, Texas (Airport)
Updated: 7 min 53 sec ago
Light Rain
81 °F
Light Rain Mist
Humidity: 89%
Dew Point: 77 °F
Wind: 14 mph from the East
Wind Gust: 21 mph
Pressure: 29.71 in (Falling)
Heat Index: 87 °F
Visibility: 3.0 miles
UV: 0 out of 16
Pollen: 6.80 out of 12
Pollen Forecast new!
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 800 ft
Mostly Cloudy 1500 ft
Overcast 4800 ft
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 16 ft
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting pottery:

Going Excellent! Thanks.
SST's around here are at 35-36F
The ONLY place hotter is GOM at 37.
Crabs are well done.......
You have the dumplings?


35-36F?

Pottery, I thought you lived in the Caribbean not the North Pole! LOL
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
Quoting hydrus:
African wave lookum angry..

This is horrible. I can't remember a larger wave coming off the African coast.
Member Since: July 8, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 26
Quoting KoritheMan:
000
WTNT65 KNHC 070138
TCUAT5
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
840 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010


...HERMINE MAKES LANDFALL IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...

DATA FROM THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN BROWNSVILLE TEXAS INDICATE THAT
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE MADE LANDFALL AROUND 830 PM CDT...0130 UTC
...ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ABOUT 40 MILES...65 KM
...SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL
WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 MPH...100 KM/HR.


SUMMARY OF 830 PM CDT...0130 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 97.4W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NNE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE

I thought they'd put her at 70mph or more. Oh well...
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it was just starting to finally get closed off when it made landfall
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I guess that means we don't have to wait til midnight for that landfall ;)
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Quoting MoltenIce:
SAL is getting weaker(?).
It should be, it is September.
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Quoting Orcasystems:


Playing in a Golf Tournament next weekend... its suppose to rain... and its a lot of things right now.... but it ain't warm

I see that.
That's why I mentioned the Lovely Warm Rain.
Serves you right........
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24033
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
Tropical Storm Hermine hit land soon.
African wave lookum angry..
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SAL is getting weaker(?).
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
000
WTNT65 KNHC 070138
TCUAT5
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL102010
840 PM CDT MON SEP 06 2010


...HERMINE MAKES LANDFALL IN EXTREME NORTHEASTERN MEXICO...

DATA FROM THE NOAA DOPPLER RADAR IN BROWNSVILLE TEXAS INDICATE THAT
TROPICAL STORM HERMINE MADE LANDFALL AROUND 830 PM CDT...0130 UTC
...ALONG THE COAST OF NORTHEASTERN MEXICO ABOUT 40 MILES...65 KM
...SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT LANDFALL
WERE ESTIMATED TO BE 65 MPH...100 KM/HR.


SUMMARY OF 830 PM CDT...0130 UTC...INFORMATION
--------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...25.3N 97.4W
ABOUT 40 MI...65 KM S OF BROWNSVILLE TEXAS
ABOUT 105 MI...170 KM NNE OF LA PESCA MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...65 MPH...100 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 14 MPH...22 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...991 MB...29.26 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN/BLAKE
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Quoting earthlydragonfly:


I think we could go diving in your neck of the ocean and find the crabs already boiled... LOL

How ya doing Pottery?

Going Excellent! Thanks.
SST's around here are at 35-36F
The ONLY place hotter is GOM at 37.
Crabs are well done.......
You have the dumplings?
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24033
811. IKE
Quoting thelmores:


Yea! It doesn't even qualify as a Flock of Seagulls! More like herd of sea flies! LOL


"I walk along the avenue....I never thought I'd meet a girl like you"......."a cloud appears above your head...a beam of light comes shinin down on you"......
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
Quoting pottery:

Bring it on!
It's warm rain........


Playing in a Golf Tournament next weekend... its suppose to rain... and its a lot of things right now.... but it ain't warm
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Quoting stormpetrol:
My 25th Wedding Anniversary is tomorrow(Silver)and I love my wife more today than I did yesterday but not as much as tomorrow. Catch up with you all Wednesday, hopefully :)


Happy Anniversary Bro! Send our best to the better half! :)
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
looks like a significant westward jog in the last few radar frames.
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AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Slightly off-topic, but I wanted to share a "weather geek" joke with you all. Read the alt text to this comic: http://xkcd.com/789/

:)
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Quoting Orcasystems:


You gonna get wet again... there is a Blob sneaking up on you.

Bring it on!
It's warm rain........
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24033


TPW gyre associated with Gaston's remnant low shows the inhibiting effects dry air has had on the system. Notice it goes from a dark color (more moist) to a lighter color (dry air infiltration) as it approaches the northern islands, but returning to a darker color. The gyre is also becoming tilted nwest to seast, indicative of the fairly strong southeasterly flow that that has kept moisture blown west ahead of the circulation, and the system on a more westerly (soon to likely dip southwest) motion as the gyre flattens out into the Caribbean. If Gaston's circulation (looking messy, disorganized) can remain intact as it enters the Caribbean, the limited moisture field surrounding its small coc will come into the more moist environment of the eastern Caribbean. The flattening out of the TPW gyre is moving at a fast clip and will make it difficult for Gaston to organize, imo, until somewhere southeast or just south of Jamaica - that is, if there's any circulation left by the time it reaches that area.
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Stormpetrol...sounds like Spiral Staircase's "More Today Than Yesterday"...recently celebrated my 27th and couldn't agree more. Happy Anniversary and spoil her....
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
LOL! I agree, my forecast busted for Hermine when I said it wasn't going to deepen anymore than 50mph. I should of known better when '

1) Upper level conditions are favorable.
2) The mid-level environment is moist.
3) SSTs are at record warmth.
4) The pressure of the system when it became a tropical depression was unusually low, the winds were eventually going to catch up with the pressure.

lol
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what was 99L is going boom tonight
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
Quoting stormpetrol:
My 25th Wedding Anniversary is tomorrow(Silver)and I love my wife more today than I did yesterday but not as much as tomorrow. Catch up with you all Wednesday, hopefully :)
Congrats! Enjoy your day!
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Would one of you "in the know" check post 754 and give me your thoughts? (and i dont mind a little laughter if it is deserved) lol
Member Since: July 28, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 276
Quoting KoritheMan:


I understand that this field is an inexact science, but when I repeatedly bust a forecast on the same system, it gets annoying. :P
LOL! I agree, my forecast busted for Hermine when I said it wasn't going to deepen anymore than 50mph. I should of known better when:

1) Upper level conditions are favorable.
2) The mid-level environment is moist.
3) SSTs are at record warmth.
4) The pressure of the system when it became a tropical depression was unusually low, the winds were eventually going to catch up with the pressure.
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remember a lot of times the land itself may help tighten up the core and it may strengthen for 2-3 hours after landfall too
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Quoting IKE:


It looks pathetic.


Yea! It doesn't even qualify as a Flock of Seagulls! More like herd of sea flies! LOL
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3805
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
It hasn't made landfall yet. Give it another 10 minutes or so.


I'll wait for the eye to be over land entirely to say she made landfall.
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Recent scans are all over 70kts for the max, with one over 100kts.
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the northern eyewall is coming ashore right now..
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Well, happy anniversary! Have a great day!
Thanks alot! Forgot to say, Everyone have a goodnight, by Wednesday well we should know whether Ex gaston is history or not!
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Quoting stormpetrol:
My 25th Wedding Anniversary is tomorrow(Silver)and I love my wife more today than I did yesterday but not as much as tomorrow. Catch up with you all Wednesday, hopefully :)

CONGRATULATIONS.
to Her, especially!
(LOL)
Member Since: October 24, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 24033
Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Holy Hot Batman!! Stay out of the water...

Good thing nothing of significance has used that water.
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Quoting washingtonian115:
I thought I was the only one that got frustrated....


I understand that this field is an inexact science, but when I repeatedly bust a forecast on the same system, it gets annoying. :P
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Quoting pottery:

A trifle warm, what?


You gonna get wet again... there is a Blob sneaking up on you.
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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