Intensifying Hermine closes in on the Texas/Mexico coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 9:47 PM GMT on September 06, 2010

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Steadily intensifying Tropical Storm Hermine is closing in on the coast near the Texas/Mexico border, and should move ashore late tonight. Hermine became a tropical depression at 11pm last night, and could become a minimal hurricane by 11 pm tonight. Hermine's rate of intensification from nothing to a strong tropical storm is one of the fastest on record. It turns out that the extreme southwestern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche, where Hermine formed, is prone to these sort of rapidly intensifying tropical storms. The curvature and topography of the land help induce a counter-clockwise spin to the air over the region, which helps get tropical storms spinning up unusually quickly. Helping the spin-up process are the very warm 30°C waters, low 5 - 10 knots of wind shear, and moist atmosphere. Hermine promises to be a very wet storm, and latest long range radar out of Brownsville, Texas shows a large area of heavy rain has been drenching southern Texas and northern Mexico all afternoon, with radar estimated rainfall amounts exceeding two inches in a few areas along the coast. Radar loops show that an eyewall is attempting to form, but a region of dry air from over land spiraled into Hermine's core between 4 - 5pm EDT, disrupting eyewall formation. However, it now appears that Hermine has closed off its eye from this dry air, which should aid in intensification. Satellite imagery shows Hermine has vigorous thunderstorms with very cold tops, and improving low-level spiral banding.

Forecast for Hermine
Hermine doesn't have much time over water before it comes ashore, which is a good thing. The storm is steadily organizing, and has a shot at reaching hurricane strength before the center moves ashore late tonight, near midnight. Heavy rain will be the main threat from Hermine, though isolated tornadoes may also cause damage, particularly over South Texas. Hermine is expected to accelerate through Central Texas Tuesday and Wednesday, and the storm's rains will help alleviate moderate to severe drought conditions affecting Central Texas.


Figure 1. Late afternoon radar image of Tropical Storm Hermine. Note the band of dry air spiraling into the core of the storm from the north.

Gaston continues to suffer from dry air
An Air Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft spent the afternoon in Gaston's remains, and found a weak 1012 mb center of low pressure with only a limited region of westerly winds on the south side of the center of circulation. Top surface winds uncontaminated by heavy rain seen by their SFMR instrument were in the 30 - 35 mph range. The airplane found plenty of dry air in the storm's environment, and there are not enough heavy thunderstorms in ex-Gaston's circulation for it to qualify as a tropical depression. The remains of Gaston are now approaching the northern Lesser Antilles, and residents can expect a few heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 40 mph beginning early this evening and continuing into the night. Latest radar out of Martinique doesn't show much in the way of heavy rain, and satellite imagery confirms that the thunderstorm activity associated with Gaston's remains is quite sparse. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops.


Figure 2. Afternoon satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Forecast for Gaston
There is little change to the forecast for Gaston's remains. Dry air will continue to be the major impediment to development, and the system is unlikely to become a tropical depression today. However, wind shear, which is currently a moderate 10 knots, is forecast by the latest SHIPS model run to fall very low, 0 - 5 knots, tonight through Wednesday. With almost no wind shear affecting it, Gaston will a better chance of keeping the moisture from its heavy thunderstorms near its core on Tuesday. This will insulate the storm from the dry air surrounding it. The atmosphere is also moister in the eastern Caribbean, further increasing the chances of development. I believe it is probable Gaston will become a tropical depression again on Tuesday. NHC is currently giving Gaston a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, which is a reasonable forecast.

Heavy rain showers and gusty winds from the storm will affect Puerto Rico Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. This activity will spread to the Dominican Republic Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Assuming dry air and an encounter with Hispaniola's high mountains do not destroy Gaston, heavy rain from the storm should move over Haiti, eastern Cuba, and Jamaica Wednesday night and Thursday morning. The models don't give much support for Gaston surviving past Wednesday. The ECMWF, GFS, NOGAPS, Canadian, and HWRF models all dissipate Gaston. However, two models--the GFDL and UKMET--predict that Gaston will survive the dry air and an encounter with Hispaniola, and pass far enough south of the island to find a favorable environment in the Central Caribbean for development on Wednesday. Wind shear will be low, water temperatures will be hot, and the atmosphere will be plenty moist. Gaston could intensify into a hurricane in the Western Caribbean by the end of the week, as predicted by the latest run of the GFDL model.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The models are fairly unanimous in predicting development late this week of a tropical wave expected to emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday. The next storm will be called Igor.

Next post
I'll have an update in the morning.

Jeff Masters

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1236. Seawall
Gustav did NOT hit New Orleans... check your track again.
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TORMENTOSO83,

check out this, it is a bit to grip but it will put you in the "drivers seat", there an extra surprises under the "brown-eyes" button. and there is a Desktop gauge also you can d/l with it. the software works real nice if your use to GE then it won't be to hard.

Link
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1233. GBguy88
Quoting hunkerdown:
that report was from 11:55 pm, sustained were actually 44 with 69 gusts; report as of 12:16 was 41 sustained, gusts to 61...please checks the facts before you make false statements/


There was a 21 minute blank spot in between those reports. When I went through hurricane Dennis, the winds went from strong tropical storm force to 120+ and only lasted around 15 minutes. Initial report could have said 70mph, and 25 minutes (and 120mph winds) later, we were in the eye.
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Quoting Jedkins01:


before you mock me, I grew up in a trailer park, not all of us are fortunate to afford something better, and let me tell you, Frances and Jeanne tore apart my neighborhood here in Pinellas county. By the time both storms had crossed the state, sustained winds had weakened to about 60 with with gusts to 75 or so.

We had gusts between 65 and 80 with sustained at 45 to 55, and let me tell you, it tore this area apart, 8 mobile homes completely totaled, with many more heavily damaged.

My very own home took severe damage, and we decided to have it hauled out and junked, it was a pretty scary situation. Thank the Lord my dad found an extra job so we got one of the new 'manufactured homes" on our land site, which our much stronger.
and you are comparing mobile homes to houses/structures built to "Andrew" code...please, give me a break.
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1229. GBguy88
Quoting leo305:


that would scare a lot of people.. considering I'm sure no one prepared for hurricane force gusts..


The actual weather forecasts have been calling for gusts up to 75mph, if anyone is caught off guard by them, it's because they wrote this storm off and stopped paying attention.
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1228. leo305
Quoting hunkerdown:
and far more perfect than some kid posting on a computer



for all we know ALEX could have been a major hurricane wind wise =P

Of course they are official, but they can adjust things in the future if proper proof is given or found at a later date.. just saying
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
Anyone knows about any hurricane's software for track the storms? A software like "Eye of the Storm 3000" where you can manually track any storm?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
If you want a good tornado tracking application: mouse over Severe Weather heading at top of page. A larger list will pop up click on Tornadoes.
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Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Well that settles that...KKid YOU are foolish hmmmff!


before you mock me, I grew up in a trailer park, not all of us are fortunate to afford something better, and let me tell you, Frances and Jeanne tore apart my neighborhood here in Pinellas county. By the time both storms had crossed the state, sustained winds had weakened to about 60 with with gusts to 75 or so.

We had gusts between 65 and 80 with sustained at 45 to 55, and let me tell you, it tore this area apart, 8 mobile homes completely totaled, with many more heavily damaged.

My very own home took severe damage, and we decided to have it hauled out and junked, it was a pretty scary situation. Thank the Lord my dad found an extra job so we got one of the new 'manufactured homes" on our land site, which our much stronger.
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1224. Halyn
Have there been any reports on what damage was done to Mexico when she came ashore ?
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Nice game PrivateIdaho.WaWaWa What happened to GAGAGaston I guess the bashers were right.
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Quoting leo305:


that would scare a lot of people.. considering I'm sure no one prepared for hurricane force gusts..


Yeah I'll be picking up lawn furniture from Brownsville out of MY yard! lol
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Quoting will40:


official tho
and far more perfect than some kid posting on a computer
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Quoting houston144:
Back when Danielle, made her odd turn to the North, then Earl and then Fiona...and now Gaston just turn in to a vapor trail, I started doing some "research" and I discovered two terms, Ionosphere "heaters", and I was rather stunned to find the largest built to date in Alaska called H.A.A.R.P.

1935
The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935,The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane struck the Florida Keys with a minimum ppressure of 892 mb--the lowest pressure ever observed in the United States.

1969
Hurricane Camille (1969) cat 5,Hurricane Camille struck the Mississippi Gulf Coast causing a 25-foot storm surge, which inundated Pass Christian

1988
Hurricane Gilbert of 1988 was a Category Five hurricane at peak intensity and is the strongest Atlantic tropical cyclone on record with a minimum pressure of 888 mb.

1992
Hurricane Andrew in August, 1992, Hurricane Andrew of 1992 made landfall over southern Miami-Dade County, Florida causing 26.5 billion dollars in losses.

1993
Work on the HAARP Research Station was begun in 1993 following a one year environmental impact analysis. The first functional facility was completed in December 1994 with three passive, diagnostic instruments and an evaluation prototype HF transmitter consisting of 18 antenna elements and a net radiated power of 360 kW.

1999
In March 1999, the HAARP Research Station had been developed to an intermediate level capable of high quality ionospheric research with the addition of several additonal instruments to the diagnostic suite and an improved HF transmitter utilizing 48 antenna elements and with a net radiated power capability of 960 kW.

2002
Hurricane Lili of 2002 made landfall on the Louisiana coast as a Category One hurricane.

2003
Hurricane Isabel of 2003 made landfall near Drum Inlet on the Outer Banks of North Carolina as a Category 2 hurricane.

Beginning in 2003, the buiding program began the final stage of development at the HAARP Research Station. In addition new instruments were added to the facility including a new UHF Ionospheric Radar and a telescopic dome for optical observations.

2004
Hurricane Gaston of 2004 was a Category One hurricane that made landfall along the central South Carolina coast.
Hurricane Frances of 2004 made landfall over the southern end of Hutchinson Island, Florida as a Category Two hurricane.
Hurricanes Jeanne and Ivan of 2004 were Category Three hurricanes when they made landfall in Florida and in Alabama, respectively.
Hurricane Charley of 2004 was a Category Four hurricane made landfall in Charlotte County, Florida with winds of 150 mph.

2005
Hurricane Katrina 2005
Hurricane Rita 2005
Hurricane Wilma 2005

2006
the HAARP Research Station now has The HF transmitter consisting of 180 antenna elements having a net radiated power capability of 3,600 kW, thus completing its development as originally planned. Although the HF transmitter is complete, the program continues to improve and develop the suite of scientific instruments at the facility to enhance its scientific product.

20 major research campaigns and numerous shorter studies were conducted at the facility.

The results of this research have yielded new discoveries and have identified new areas to be studied. The results of research sponsored by HAARP have been reported in peer-reviewed scientific journals including The Journal of Geophysical Research, Geophysical Research Letters, Radio Science, the Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers, and Nature.

no hurricanes have made landfall on the United States since.

Now back-in-the day, before we could sit down to our computers, maybe no one would notice the convenient down troth coming down out of Alaska. But now it is "like" late fall in September and summer not even over with one can't help but to think something is slewed and something just had to do it...

is it possible?

before you guys jump on my back, yes I see stuff in a different light and from different angles than the norm.
.......what about ike and gustav in 08'?????both made landfall as canes,gustav hit NO.......I kinda blew your theory then,huh????
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Quoting Jedkins01:



Yeah, but that report is old now, Hermine is a tight small storm like Charley was, and I'm sure winds are howling in Brownsville right now, the eyewall like feature is probably bringing even significantly stronger winds.
that report was from 11:55 pm, sustained were actually 44 with 69 gusts; report as of 12:16 was 41 sustained, gusts to 61...please checks the facts before you make false statements/
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1218. will40
Quoting leo305:


yea but they aren't perfect


official tho
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1217. leo305
Quoting GBguy88:


I think that was a few minutes before the worst of the partial eye wall made it in. I wouldn't be surprised to see gusts approaching 80mph.


that would scare a lot of people.. considering I'm sure no one prepared for hurricane force gusts..
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


:)
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Quoting Orcasystems:


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI


Just wanted to say I really like your updates and your website is cool. :^)
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1214. GBguy88
Quoting hunkerdown:
thats a gust, sustained in the mid to upper 40s


I think that was a few minutes before the worst of the partial eye wall made it in. I wouldn't be surprised to see gusts approaching 80mph.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1213. leo305
Quoting will40:


TS at landfall according to NHC


yea but they aren't perfect
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
Quoting Jedkins01:
I don't know if its just me, but Hermine looks like it has strengthened over land!

Hermine is a Charley like storm, and I think the eyewall feature is really gonna catch people off guard in Brownsville! Winds have already ramped way up in Brownsville to above T.S. Force, and that eyewall feature contains extremely intense convection...
I noticed what you're seeing. It does look like it's strengthening to me. Maybe because of the odd angle that it's headed, and drawing moisture off the gulf for awhile. Hopefully it'll keep a move on Texas style and giddeup on out, but steering currents aren't overly strong and I think it needs to be watched until it's at least 50 miles inland.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1210. pottery
Quoting RTLSNK:


Alas, he is my younger brother, and therefore prone to the pitfalls of ego and youthful enthusiasms. A native born Texan from ElPaso, a Marine, 6' 6", 285 lbs, a brave heart of gold with no fear of Mother Nature. :)

Ah!
Your 'little brother' .... LOL.
Good to "see" you.
Going back to Topic..
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Quoting hunkerdown:
thats a gust, sustained in the mid to upper 40s



Yeah, but that report is old now, Hermine is a tight small storm like Charley was, and I'm sure winds are howling in Brownsville right now, the eyewall like feature is probably bringing even significantly stronger winds.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1208. xcool
E44.9MPH G TO61.0(39MPH G TO53KT)
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1207. will40
Quoting leo305:
I guess hermine was a hurricane at landfall..

69MPH winds at brownsville.. hours after it hit land..


TS at landfall according to NHC
Member Since: Posts: Comments:


AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Member Since: October 1, 2007 Posts: 81 Comments: 26511
1205. leo305
Flashflood warning for brownsville...
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
Quoting Jedkins01:


you are foolish, 75 mph winds will tear apart trailer parks, 75 mph can even do minor damage to regular homes


Well that settles that...KKid YOU are foolish hmmmff!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting leo305:
I guess hermine was a hurricane at landfall..

69MPH winds at brownsville.. hours after it hit land..
thats a gust, sustained in the mid to upper 40s
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anyone knows about any hurricane's software for track the storms? A software like "Eye of the Storm 3000" where you can manually track any storm?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
1201. leo305
I guess hermine was a hurricane at landfall..

69MPH winds at brownsville.. hours after it hit land..
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
Quoting KanKunKid:


Old trailers are built to withstand 75 mph. 70 mph winds in Texas is a summer breeze.


you are foolish, 75 mph winds will tear apart trailer parks, 75 mph can even do minor damage to regular homes
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Yeah I'm waiting for a new data set. I would expect Port Isabel to have higher winds being right on the coast but you never can tell.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anyone knows about any hurricane's software for track the storms? A software like "Eye of the Storm 3000" where you can manually track any storm?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting CosmicEvents:
OMG...the expert on TWC just reported on the tornado warning near the COC, and said that if you were in the area and effected by one of these embedded tornados to expect "gusty winds"!


You talking about Rick Knabb?
Member Since: March 7, 2007 Posts: 575 Comments: 20553
Doesn't give people enough time to prepare, when a storm develops so suddenly. At least with Earl we had enough time to prepare. Good thing Hermine isn't a Hurricane and a strong one at that.
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1193. RTLSNK
Quoting pottery:

What?
Has he gone off to bed, leaving you the Task of keeping him safe?
You are a Good Brother, Snakeymon.
Mine would never do that for me..


Alas, he is my younger brother, and therefore prone to the pitfalls of ego and youthful enthusiasms. A native born Texan from ElPaso, a Marine, 6' 6", 285 lbs, a brave heart of gold with no fear of Mother Nature. :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
I don't know if its just me, but Hermine looks like it has strengthened over land!

Hermine is a Charley like storm, and I think the eyewall feature is really gonna catch people off guard in Brownsville! Winds have already ramped way up in Brownsville to above T.S. Force, and that eyewall feature contains extremely intense convection...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting fatlady99:
OMG Geoff. What pipes she had! A cross between Sarah Vaughn and Saturday Night Fever!!! Stormy indeed.... LOL.

You know, you are one special kind of dude. So here's one for you.

After the Storm


That was a beautiful rendition! I think we are going to be good friends!
Member Since: September 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 11149
1189. GBguy88
Quoting PrivateIdaho:


Port Isabel reported a gust to 52 mph


Latest from Brownsville says 69mph, sustained at 46.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting Hurricanman:


Yes, but this is a real tornado.

* AT 1048 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A TORNADO 6 MILES NORTHEAST OF BROWNSVILLE...MOVING NORTHWEST AT 60 MPH.


hope everyone stays dry and safe....
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Back when Danielle, made her odd turn to the North, then Earl and then Fiona...and now Gaston just turn in to a vapor trail, I started doing some "research" and I discovered two terms, Ionosphere "heaters", and I was rather stunned to find the largest built to date in Alaska called H.A.A.R.P.

1935
The Labor Day Hurricane of 1935,The 1935 Labor Day Hurricane struck the Florida Keys with a minimum pressure of 892 mb--the lowest pressure ever observed in the United States.

1969
Hurricane Camille (1969) cat 5,Hurricane Camille struck the Mississippi Gulf Coast causing a 25-foot storm surge, which inundated Pass Christian

1988
Hurricane Gilbert of 1988 was a Category Five hurricane at peak intensity and is the strongest Atlantic tropical cyclone on record with a minimum pressure of 888 mb.

1992
Hurricane Andrew in August, 1992, Hurricane Andrew of 1992 made landfall over southern Miami-Dade County, Florida causing 26.5 billion dollars in losses.

1993
Work on the HAARP Research Station was begun in 1993 following a one year environmental impact analysis. The first functional facility was completed in December 1994 with three passive, diagnostic instruments and an evaluation prototype HF transmitter consisting of 18 antenna elements and a net radiated power of 360 kW.

1999
In March 1999, the HAARP Research Station had been developed to an intermediate level capable of high quality ionospheric research with the addition of several additonal instruments to the diagnostic suite and an improved HF transmitter utilizing 48 antenna elements and with a net radiated power capability of 960 kW.

2002
Hurricane Lili of 2002 made landfall on the Louisiana coast as a Category One hurricane.

2003
Hurricane Isabel of 2003 made landfall near Drum Inlet on the Outer Banks of North Carolina as a Category 2 hurricane.

Beginning in 2003, the buiding program began the final stage of development at the HAARP Research Station. In addition new instruments were added to the facility including a new UHF Ionospheric Radar and a telescopic dome for optical observations.

2004
Hurricane Gaston of 2004 was a Category One hurricane that made landfall along the central South Carolina coast.
Hurricane Frances of 2004 made landfall over the southern end of Hutchinson Island, Florida as a Category Two hurricane.
Hurricanes Jeanne and Ivan of 2004 were Category Three hurricanes when they made landfall in Florida and in Alabama, respectively.
Hurricane Charley of 2004 was a Category Four hurricane made landfall in Charlotte County, Florida with winds of 150 mph.

2005
Hurricane Katrina 2005
Hurricane Rita 2005
Hurricane Wilma 2005

2006
the HAARP Research Station now has The HF transmitter consisting of 180 antenna elements having a net radiated power capability of 3,600 kW, thus completing its development as originally planned. Although the HF transmitter is complete, the program continues to improve and develop the suite of scientific instruments at the facility to enhance its scientific product.

20 major research campaigns and numerous shorter studies were conducted at the facility.

The results of this research have yielded new discoveries and have identified new areas to be studied. The results of research sponsored by HAARP have been reported in peer-reviewed scientific journals including The Journal of Geophysical Research, Geophysical Research Letters, Radio Science, the Institute of Electrical and Electronic Engineers, and Nature.

no hurricanes have made landfall on the United States since.

Now back-in-the day, before we could sit down to our computers, maybe no one would notice the convenient down troth coming down out of Alaska. But now it is "like" late fall in September and summer not even over with one can't help but to think something is slewed and something just had to do it...

is it possible?

before you guys jump on my back, yes I see stuff in a different light and from different angles than the norm.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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