Stan about to leave the Yucatan

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 1:29 AM GMT on October 03, 2005

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Tropical Storm Stan
Tropical Storm Stan is holding together as it moves has weakened during its passage across the Yucatan Peninsula, and is probably a tropical depression. There is very little deep convection surrounding the system, although the upper level ouflow is still good on all sides except the west.

Stan will have to re-organize once it pops out into the Gulf of Mexico Monday, and will have 36 hours or so to intensify over the warm 29 - 30C waters of the Gulf as it tracks westward. Wind shear is expected to remain very low, under 5 knots, and Stan could be a Category 1 hurricane as it approaches the Mexican coast on Tuesday. The latest model runs are still split on whether of not Stan will make it ashore on Tuesday. Two reliable models--the GFDL and Canadian--take Stan across Mexico and redevelop him as a tropical storm in the Pacific. However, the other models aren't so sure, and weaken the ridge that is driving Stan westward, allowing Stan to stall, loop back, or even turn northwards and threaten the U.S. later in the week. If Stan does stall and head northwards towards the U.S., he will have to contend with a large upper-level low pressure system forecast to form in the Gulf of Mexico by Thursday that would bring significant wind shear and weaken him.

Complicating the long range forecast is the fact that most of the computer models expect a second tropical storm to form nearby late in the week. The formation location varies depending upon which model one looks at. Two models indicate a storm will form off the east coast of Florida and scrape the Carolina coast (GFS and NOGAPS). The UKMET forms a storm near New Orleans and tracks it south into the Bay of Campeche; and the GFDL sees a new storm forming in the Yucatan Channel by the western tip of Cuba. We also need to keep an eye on the large area of thunderstorms approaching the Bahamas from the east, which could develop into a tropical storm later in the week.

Suffice to say, the waters surrounding the U.S. are expected to be very unsettled over the coming week, and this is a dangerous period of hurricane season for us. Ocean temperatures are still very warm, and the forecast is for very light wind shear over much of the hurricane breeding grounds.

Tropical Storm Otis
Tropical Storm Otis has decayed to a 45-mph tropical storm, and is forecast to continue to weaken and dissipate over the next three days. If Otis comes ashore in the Baja Peninsula, flooding and wind damage will be minimal. Otis's remains will probably not affect Arizona's weather.

Taiwan and China
Typhoon Langwang (Chinese for Dragon King), made landfall on Taiwan at dawn Sunday as a Category 3 typhoon with 120 mph winds. Passage over the 10000 foot high mountains of Taiwan significantly weakened Longwang, which struck mainland China today as a Category 1 hurricane. Longwang did heavy damage on Taiwan, killing 2,and injuring 46 people. In a freakish double-whammy, a magnitude 5.4 earthquake hit the island as Longwang came ashore, but did little damage.

Jeff Masters

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215. groundedtruccr
1:22 PM GMT on October 05, 2005
Does anyone notice the circulation and tops of about 90degrees celcius. It is just off the Yucatan and shows moving northeast towards Florida. I'm on the southwest coast (Charley), and watching this more than Tammy thats hothin but rain.
214. billsfaninsofla
2:17 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
Weatherdude.. kids here in So FLA are already off pretty much the whole week! off Tues/1/2 day Thurs/off Friday..
Member Since: September 5, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 5523
213. wpbwx
2:00 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
I am new at weather watching. A closed wave Is a tropical storm correct?
212. FLCrackerGirl
1:58 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
Dr M has New Blog UP!
Member Since: August 12, 2004 Posts: 47 Comments: 597
211. weatherdude65
1:58 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
Yea stormy...just what we don't need, more rain. Although I think I would like just rain as opposed to a TS or Hurricane. My kids would like to see the weather get real bad so that they can stay home from school :-)
210. CoconutCreekFLA
1:58 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
Here's the miami nws statement...

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...THIS WEEK`S WEATHER WILL BE QUITE COMPLICATED
AND WET TO SAY THE LEAST. A TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY NEAR 73W WILL
MOVE STEADILY WEST AND REACH SOUTH FLORIDA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THE
ARRIVAL OF THIS WAVE HAS BEEN DELAYED A BIT WITH EACH NEW MODEL RUN
BUT THIS TIMING LOOKS FAIRLY GOOD. THE GFS BRINGS THE WAVE THROUGH
AS AN OPEN WAVE BUT THE ETA BRINGS IT THROUGH AS A CLOSED 1004 MB
LOW. EVENTUALLY THE GFS DEVELOPS IT INTO A CLOSED LOW LATER IN THE
WEEK OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF. A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTHEAST INTO
THE GULF AND NORTH FLORIDA BY FRIDAY. A SHORT WAVE THAT PUSHES THE
COLD FRONT ALONG STARTS TO PICK UP THE LOW FRIDAY AND DEEPENS IT TO
A 1003 MB LOW OVER THE SOUTH CENTRAL GULF AND MOVES IT TO CENTRAL
FLORIDA BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO THE ATLANTIC NEAR DAYTONA
SATURDAY NIGHT. BELIEVE THIS LOW WILL BE EXTRA-TROPICAL AND THE WIND
FIELD AND STRENGTH MAY BE OVERDONE. THIS FRONT MAY REACH SOUTH
FLORIDA LATER SUNDAY AND STALL.
209. wpbwx
1:56 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
It is wild to watch. It just blew up in the WV loop. You could see it getting it's spin together.
208. CoconutCreekFLA
1:56 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
Stormy: Hi. did they give a location?
207. stormydee
1:54 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
wpb - my local news said that it may be a weak t.s. as it passes over us in FL because its moving our way...but its looking pretty wicked out there, can definately see it spinning on water vapor loop....
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
206. stormydee
1:52 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
ya 65, gonna be a wet week for us....
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
205. wpbwx
1:51 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
When will we feel this wave in West Palm Beach. Is it forcast to be more than a wave?
204. weatherdude65
1:50 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
morning stormy...i see that spin as well :-(
203. Geschworen
1:38 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
Hallo everybuddy.

Savannah i see what you are saying but i do feel like GFS will prob be right with this. If not then we here on the coast should be ready for trouble.
202. SavannahStorm
1:31 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
Has anyone seen the latest NAM for Thursday at 1500? Link (very ominous looking graphic, btw) It develops the Bahama disturbance moving over S Florida and into the Gulf by late Thurs as a very impressive looking 996mb cyclone. The GFS, however, wants this to move more up toward the Carolina coast then looping back NE. While I usually side with GFS, if the NAM proves true, this could be bad news for the Gulf again because it is basically the same Katrina/Rita path again.
Member Since: September 22, 2005 Posts: 18 Comments: 2337
201. stormydee
1:31 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
um, whats going on out there? I see a twisting low to my east....uh oh!
Member Since: August 25, 2005 Posts: 39 Comments: 517
200. oriondarkwood
1:28 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
Well folks, Stan is not looking like the fish storm I predicted. My predictions on Tammy are still out since TD20 failed to move up the power chain.

In other news looks like fall is coming with a bang later this week up in my hood (ie classic Rochester weather. It will be 80 Tuesday and 50 Wedensday)
Member Since: July 5, 2004 Posts: 51 Comments: 42
199. SAINTHURRIFAN
1:07 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
folks look at weather under archives on juan 1985 it was a late oct hybrid 85mph winds at its worst check out the track i remember it well dumped tons of rain on us here on ms coast and was devestaing to se la with coastal flooding and rain i have a hunch thats what we could have in the next week or something similar.
Member Since: August 20, 2005 Posts: 5 Comments: 708
198. guygee
12:30 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
Oops , Make that "Outflow is just about non-existent on the WEST semi-circle"

doh!
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3148
197. guygee
12:28 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
ClydeFrog - Agreed! What is missing is a good upper-level high above the system. Outflow is just about non-existent on the east semi-circle due to westerly shear. This is forecast to change, the big question is when will it change?
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3148
196. ClydeFrog
12:23 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
the system east of the bahamas has a definite spin!!!!
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 68
195. TampaBay58
12:14 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
The NHC mentions a new area of interest in the Carribean in it's 8 am Tropical discussion.

"AN AREA OF INTEREST HAS DEVELOPED OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS NEAR
14N38W. MID LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED IN THE FIRST
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES. SCATTERED MODERATE/ISOLATED STRONG
CONVECTION IS WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE 12N34W-16N38W."

The gfl seems to show a westward moving tropical system moving ito the gulf snd developing then being pushed back to the NE late week. With these systems lurking and the cold front approaching this is looking possible.
194. CoconutCreekFLA
12:05 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
Thanks, Guygee. Have a nice morning. Gotta take the babe to school. Bye!
193. guygee
12:04 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
Concerning the disturbance east of the the Bahamas: Yesterday the westerly shear was intense and although a surface circulation was detectable, the system was unable to wrap any convection around its west side.

Today, the shear still looks strong, but there is currently a ring of convection circling a broad area centered around 24N 70W. Whether that "ring" holds together and develops (or not) depends on how fast the shear relaxes. Looks like we have at least another day before that could happen, but if the shear should suddenly relax I think the disturbance could develop rapidly since it seems there is already a low and mid-level circulation in place. Suffice to say I will be keeping a close eye on it over the next couple of days from my vantage point on the East Central FL coast.
Member Since: September 16, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 3148
192. CoconutCreekFLA
12:01 PM GMT on October 03, 2005
The map showed that where my house is we shouldn't have flooding. I seriously doubt that because when we get a good rain the water pools at the bottom of my driveway. Also, a few years ago the water went all the way to my garage door.

I'm supposedly flood zone X but I bought flood insurance anyway. The whole area is a huge flood zone, in my opinion.
191. CoconutCreekFLA
11:59 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
Buy a boat, I guess ;)
190. JupiterFL
11:58 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
They did a similar article in the Palm Beach Post about 2 weeks ago. In our area it was the Loxahatchee river which was going to cause all of the inland flooding. I am 2 miles inland and was considered to be in an area that would be completely under water because the surge would come right in the Jupiter inlet and up the Loxahatchee river. Oh well what you going to do.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146
189. CoconutCreekFLA
11:55 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
Link

Here's the link. Look to the right for the maps
188. CoconutCreekFLA
11:54 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
South Florida people: check out the front page of the sun-sentinel this morning. Big article about what could happen if the big one hit here. The accompanying maps are great.

Also, interesting to note that they said that in Broward all our inland canals and such used for water control could actually help bring the storm surge more inland. And, we would have storm surge from the ocean west AND the everglades east.
187. CoconutCreekFLA
11:52 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
Jupiter: my local news said something similar last night. They were keeping an eye on the stuff outside the bahamas and we would have a wet week starting tomorrow.
186. CoconutCreekFLA
11:51 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
Good morning, all!

So it looks like things may have improved for the storms east of Florida. Does anyone have any opinions on wher weather patterns would steer it? Also, what about time for development. If things headed due west into Florida, would there be enough time for it to develop into anything significant?
185. IKE
11:28 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
Per accuweather..."An upper-level trough of low pressure is interacting with a tropical wave east of the Bahamas and this combo is slowly moving to the west. There is plenty of northwest shear in the path of the this system so any development will be slow over the next 12-24 hours. The upper level shear will weaken east of Florida Tuesday and Wednesday as the upper trough of low pressure backs westward into the Gulf of Mexico, and this could lead to more favorable conditions for tropical development. This feature will track toward the coast of the southeastern United States over the next few days and will bring enhanced thunderstorm activity with heavy downpours to Florida starting on Tuesday and possibly lasting the rest of the workweek."
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
184. JupiterFL
11:21 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
Just got done watching the local news here. They were very vague saying that some models develop the system in the Bahamas and some don't. He also said that it probably will move right towards us as nothing more than rain. Thats good to hear.
Member Since: August 10, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 2146
183. IKE
11:18 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
I think this system/Tammy will be an eastern gulf/east coast event..but Im no weatherman...so we'll see.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
182. hmfynn
10:58 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
not to mention the carribean system as well, though I guess the cold front would keep that away assuming it gets there first with the blocking high pressure.
181. hmfynn
10:56 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
looks like another week on pins and needles watching Tammy and the cold front inch toward each other. Which one gets there first will make or break LA.
180. IKE
10:53 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
Looking at an IR loop...definitely a low there, I think Tammy is on the prowl.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
179. IKE
10:51 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
Pressures are rather low in the Bahamas. Strong east winds. The beginnings of a storm?
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
178. IKE
10:44 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
The area east of the bahamas appears to be coming together..."A large but disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms...
associated with a westward-moving tropical wave and an upper-level
trough...is located a few hundred miles east of the central Bahamas.
Thunderstorm activity has become a little more concentrated this
morning... and upper-level winds are expected to gradually become
more conducive for tropical cyclone development during the next
couple of days as this system moves westward."...

Per the NHC. The beginnings of Tammy..maybe a subtropical/hybrid system in the Gulf or a storm/hurricane.
Member Since: June 9, 2005 Posts: 23 Comments: 37858
177. hmfynn
10:19 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
Have any of these waves in and around the Carribean and SE US become tropical invests yet and as such do we have early model guidance on the skeetobite site yet?
176. primez
10:18 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 195
175. primez
10:15 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
Whoa. It looks like the wave in the mid-atlantic south of TD 19 has some spiral banding.
Member Since: September 18, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 195
174. cirrocumulus
10:11 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 AM EDT MON OCT 3 2005

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
STORM STAN... LOCATED OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO ABOUT
320 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF VERACRUZ MEXICO.

A LARGE BUT DISORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...
ASSOCIATED WITH A WESTWARD-MOVING TROPICAL WAVE AND AN UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH...IS LOCATED A FEW HUNDRED MILES EAST OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS.
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED THIS
MORNING... AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY BECOME
MORE CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
TUESDAY.

FORECASTER KNABB
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
173. dcw
10:05 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
Look at that low east of the Virgin Islands!
Member Since: August 2, 2001 Posts: 2 Comments: 3
172. cirrocumulus
10:03 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CORPUS CHRISTI TX
345 AM CDT MON OCT 3 2005

.SHORT-TERM (TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY)...CONCUR WITH THE GFS/NAM WITH
RESPECT TO THE UPPER PATTERN. ALTHOUGH THE REGION WL BE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER RIDGE DRG THE PERIOD...COPIOUS MSTR (AS
DEPICTED FROM GOES SOUNDER DATA/BRO SOUNDING) ASSOCIATED WITH
STAN...AND INSTABILITY...WL CONTRIBUTE TO CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...WITH
THE GREATEST POPS OVR THE SRN SECTIONS. OWING TO LESS
INSOLATION...EXPECT MAX HEAT INDEX VALUES TO REMAIN BELOW 105.

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY
OWING IN PART TO COPIOUS MSTR. NEAR CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY...EXPECT
IFR/MVFR CEILINGS/VSBY.

&&

.MARINE...CONCUR WITH THE WAVEWATCH SOLN WITH REGARD TO THE
WIND/SEAS DRG THE PERIOD. TODAY...INCREASING SEA HGTS FROM SWELL AND
INCREASING MOMENTUM WARRANTS AN SCA. TNGT/TUE...EXPECT SCA
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. BASED IN PART ON THE TRACK OF STAN...DO NOT
EXPECT SUSTAINED WIND TO EXCEED 20-25KT OVR THE COASTAL WATERS.
WATER LEVELS AT PTA/BOB HALL PIER AROUND 1FT ABV NORMAL...YET AT
LEAST 1FT BELOW MINIMUM CRITERION FOR MINOR TIDAL OVERFLOW. WL NOT
ISSUE AN CFW AT THIS TIME. HWR...WL RECONSIDER LATER GIVEN THE
LIKELIHOOD OF PERSISTENT E/NE FLOW AND WAVE ACTION FROM SWELLS. SCA
CONDITIONS LIKELY AFTER FROPA ON THURSDAY AT LEAST FOR THE GULFMEX.

&&

.LONG TERM (TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY)...RAIN CHANCES AND ABOVE
NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES
ACROSS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING PROBABLY BEFORE SUNRISE. MODELS
CONSISTENT IN SHOWING BEST MOISTURE FIELDS OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS
OF THE CWFA AND WITH GOOD COASTAL CONVERGENCE DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...SHOULD SEE SOME SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER OVER THE
COASTAL SECTIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...WITH DIURNAL
CONVECTION EXPECTED OVER INLAND AREAS. MODELS A TAD SLOWER WITH
FROPA THAN IT WAS YESTERDAY...BUT STILL FEEL FRONT WILL BE ALONG THE
COAST AT 12Z THURSDAY IF NOT SOONER. THIS WILL BE THE FIRST GOOD
FRONT OF THE YEAR AS THE PREVIOUS FRONT JUST COULD NOT HOLD UP TO
THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL/RECORD TEMPERATURES. ALTHOUGH GFS IS A BIT
SLOWER...IT ALSO APPEARS TO BE A BIT COOLER AS THE SURFACE RIDGE
DIVES SOUTHWARD INTO THE CONCHO VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT. STILL COULD
SEE SOME SHOWERS ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT/THURSDAY MORNING AND ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE IS NOT AS HIGH SINCE
THE CONVERGENCE FIELDS ARE NOT AS IMPRESSIVE. NEVERTHELESS...STILL
KEPT LOW-END CHANCE POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS. KEPT A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR PRECIP OVER THE SOUTHERN SECTIONS FOR THURSDAY IN CASE
THIS FRONT CONTINUES TO BE A BIT SLOWER. AFTER THAT...DO NOT EXPECT
RAINFALL AT THIS TIME THROUGH SUNDAY ALTHOUGH WILL HAVE TO WATCH
SUNDAY NIGHT AS MOISTURE DOES TRY TO COME BACK FROM THE RIO GRANDE.
GFS IS TRYING TO BRING THE WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTHEAST/SOUTH ON
SUNDAY DIFFERENT FROM THE PREVIOUS MODEL RUN. CANADIAN AND ECMWF DO
NOT SEEM TO BRING THEM BACK AS RAPIDLY. THEREFORE JUST VEERED WINDS
A BIT FOR THE SUNDAY FORECAST RATHER THAN BUY THE GFS SOLUTION
TOTALLY. ONCE THE FRONT GOES THROUGH...WILL FINALLY SEE
TEMPERATURES MORE SEASONAL WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS NEAR OR BELOW
CLIMO...FOR A CHANGE.

Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
171. cirrocumulus
9:49 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
It looks like fronts are going to help put a lid on the gulf! Season winding down at the continental United States!



AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AMARILLO TX
343 AM CDT MON OCT 3 2005

.DISCUSSION...
SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO STREAM NORTHEAST ACROSS NEW
MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS THIS MORNING. HAVE ADDED SOME 20 PERCENT
POPS TO THE CWA TODAY AND TONIGHT. INSTABILITY LOOKS AS GOOD AS
YESTERDAY IF NOT BETTER AND THERE WERE SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS
AROUND THEN.

MAIN STORY WILL THE LATE FALL/EARLY WINTER TYPE AIR MASS THAT IS
POISED TO MOVE SOUTH INTO THE CWA BY MID WEEK. SEE LATEST HEAVY SNOW
AND ICING DISCUSSION FROM HPC (QPFHSD). SNOWS ARE EXPECTED TO SPREAD
PRETTY FAR EAST FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST WILL
ROTATE EAST THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES EARLY THIS WEEK AND THEN IT
WILL HELP DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTHWARD ON TUESDAY. THE NAM HAS NOW
SPED THE COLD FRONT UP...WHILE THE GFS IS ABOUT 12 HOURS BEHIND. THE
CURRENT FORECAST LEANS TOWARDS THE NAM...SO IT LOOKS GOOD. THE NAM
PROBABLY HAS THE BEST HANDLE ON THE DEPTH OF THE COLD AIR AND THE
STRENGTH OF ITS ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH. THEREFORE...TEMPERATURES MAY
EVEN BE LOWER THAN THE "COOL" GFS NUMBERS. RIGHT NOW HAVE LOWERED
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY DOWN TO AROUND THE MEXMOS
NUMBERS. CURRENT POP FORECAST LOOKS GOOD AT MIDWEEK...BUT DID ADD
SOME POPS TO WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY AS ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
SHORT WAVE MAY MOVE SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE PANHANDLES BEHIND VIGOROUS
SHORT WAVE LIFTING TO THE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES.

ANOTHER COLD FRONT LOOKS TO PASS THROUGH THE PANHANDLES LATE NEXT
WEEKEND AS FLOW ALOFT STAYS PROGRESSIVE.

THANK YOU FOR THE COORDINATION ABQ...PUB...DDC...OUN AND LUB.

&&
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
170. cirrocumulus
9:45 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
In meteorology, a tropical cyclone (or tropical disturbance, tropical depression, tropical storm, typhoon, or hurricane, depending on strength and geographical context) is a type of low pressure system which generally forms in the tropics. While they can be highly destructive, tropical cyclones are an important part of the atmospheric circulation system, which moves heat from the equatorial region toward the higher latitudes.

Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
169. cirrocumulus
9:36 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
Cheyenne/Warren AFB
Last Update on Oct 3, 2:53 am MDT


Fair

41F
(5C) Humidity: 76 %
Wind Speed: N 9 MPH
Barometer: 30.01" (1009.1 mb)
Dewpoint: 34F (1C)
Wind Chill: 35F (2C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi.
More Local Wx: 3 Day History:

Overnight: Clear, with a steady temperature around 50. Northeast wind around 9 mph.

Monday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 76. Calm wind becoming south between 12 and 15 mph.

Monday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 45. North northwest wind between 5 and 11 mph.

Actually, The real cold front hits Cheyenne Monday night. This front is suppose to send high pressure in later.

Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
168. cirrocumulus
9:27 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
What's up? Cold front looks to be in N. Colo. on surface analysis.
Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
167. theboldman
9:11 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
hey cirro
Member Since: September 8, 2005 Posts: 25 Comments: 2
166. cirrocumulus
9:10 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
000
WTNT45 KNHC 030902
TCDAT5
TROPICAL STORM STAN DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
5 AM EDT MON OCT 03 2005

THE CENTER OF STAN EMERGED OFF THE NORTHWESTERN COAST OF THE YUCATAN
PENINSULA AT ABOUT 0430Z. SHORTLY THEREAFTER AN AIR FORCE HURRICANE
HUNTER PLANE FLEW INTO THE CENTER AND MEASURED A CENTRAL PRESSURE
OF 1003 MB... THEN 1002 MB ON A MORE RECENT PENETRATION. MAXIMUM
850 MB FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS WERE 43 KT TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE
CENTER... IN THE BAND OF CONVECTION EMANATING OFFSHORE FROM THE
NORTHERN COAST OF THE PENINSULA. THIS CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE
DEEP ENOUGH TO MIX THE FLIGHT LEVEL WINDS DOWN TO THE SURFACE USING
THE 80 PERCENT REDUCTION...WHICH CORRESPONDS TO ABOUT 35 KT AT THE
SURFACE. ADDITIONALLY...CONVECTION HAS BEGUN BURSTING NEAR THE
CIRCULATION CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS SHOULD SOON BE
OCCURRING THERE. THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS SET TO 35 KT... MAKING
STAN A TROPICAL STORM ONCE AGAIN.

THE AIRCRAFT LOCATED THE CENTER OF CIRCULATION A BIT TO THE SOUTH OF
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY POSITION... AND THE ESTIMATED INITIAL MOTION
IS NOW WESTWARD... 270/9. A MID LEVEL RIDGE EXTENDING FROM TEXAS
TO THE CAROLINAS SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEER STAN TOWARD THE WEST
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS... WITH AN EVENTUAL SLIGHT BEND SOUTH
OF WEST AND A SLOWING OF THE FORWARD SPEED. MOST OF THE MODELS
INDICATE THAT ENOUGH RIDGING WILL PERSIST TO TAKE STAN ALL THE WAY
ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. HOWEVER... IT IS POSSIBLE THAT SOME
COMPLICATING FACTORS... INCLUDING INTERACTION WITH HIGH TERRAIN AS
STAN APPROACHES THE COAST... A DEVELOPING DISTURBANCE IN THE GULF
OF TEHUANTEPEC... AND LOW PRESSURE FORECAST TO DEVELOP OVER THE
EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO... COULD CAUSE A SLOWER MOTION THAN
INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. THE NEW FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT FOR A SOUTHWARD ADJUSTMENT DUE TO THE
INITIAL POSITION.

STAN IS NOW OVER THE VERY WARM WATERS OF THE SOUTHWESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO... AND IS BENEATH A LARGE UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AS DEPICTED
IN GOES WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FACTORS WILL
LIKELY LEAD TO STRENGTHENING. AN UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH
CURRENTLY OVER THE APPALACHIANS IS FORECAST BY THE DYNAMICAL MODELS
TO DIVE INTO THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO WITHIN 48 HOURS AND ERODE
THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE...BUT THE SHEAR WILL PROBABLY NOT INCREASE IN
TIME TO WEAKEN STAN BEFORE FINAL LANDFALL. ACCORDINGLY THE SHIPS
GUIDANCE DIAGNOSES WEAK SHEAR AND FORECASTS A 65 KT HURRICANE
APPROACHING THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO IN ABOUT 48 HOURS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO SHIPS AND THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.

THE NEW FORECAST REQUIRES A HURRICANE WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF THE GULF
COAST OF MEXICO.


FORECASTER KNABB


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 03/0900Z 20.5N 91.5W 35 KT
12HR VT 03/1800Z 20.5N 92.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 04/0600Z 20.4N 94.2W 50 KT
36HR VT 04/1800Z 20.2N 95.2W 60 KT
48HR VT 05/0600Z 20.0N 96.3W 70 KT
72HR VT 06/0600Z 19.5N 97.5W 30 KT...INLAND
96HR VT 07/0600Z...DISSIPATED

Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606
165. cirrocumulus
9:08 AM GMT on October 03, 2005
TROPICAL STORM STAN PROBABILITIES NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
4 AM CDT MON OCT 03 2005

PROBABILITIES FOR GUIDANCE IN HURRICANE PROTECTION
PLANNING BY GOVERNMENT AND DISASTER OFFICIALS

AT 4 AM CDT...0900Z...THE CENTER OF STAN WAS LOCATED NEAR
LATITUDE 20.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 91.5 WEST

CHANCES OF CENTER OF THE STORM PASSING WITHIN 65 NAUTICAL MILES
OF LISTED LOCATIONS THROUGH 1AM CDT THU OCT 6 2005

LOCATION A B C D E LOCATION A B C D E

20.4N 94.2W 48 X X X 48 MMFR 185N 926W 4 1 2 3 10
20.2N 95.2W 31 1 X X 32 MMMD 210N 897W 7 X 1 X 8
20.0N 96.3W 15 8 1 1 25 CORPUSCHRISTI TX X X X 2 2
MMSO 238N 982W X X 5 7 12 BROWNSVILLE TX X X X 5 5
MMTM 222N 979W X 6 7 5 18 GULF 27N 96W X X X 2 2
MMTX 210N 974W 1 14 4 3 22 GULF 25N 96W X X 2 6 8
MMVR 192N 961W 16 5 1 2 24

COLUMN DEFINITION PROBABILITIES IN PERCENT
A IS PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM TUE
FOLLOWING ARE ADDITIONAL PROBABILITIES
B FROM 1AM TUE TO 1PM TUE
C FROM 1PM TUE TO 1AM WED
D FROM 1AM WED TO 1AM THU
E IS TOTAL PROBABILITY FROM NOW TO 1AM THU
X MEANS LESS THAN ONE PERCENT

FORECASTER KNABB

Member Since: September 30, 2005 Posts: 0 Comments: 1606

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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