Hurricane watches for Mexico and Texas as Hermine suddenly develops

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:15 PM GMT on September 06, 2010

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Hurricane watches are up for the Texas/Mexico border region as fast developing Tropical Storm Hermine steams towards the coast at 13 mph. Hermine was a tropical depression twelve hours ago, got its name just six hours ago, but already is a threat to intensify into a hurricane by tonight. It's remarkable how fast Gulf of Mexico disturbances can blow up into strong tropical storms, when the right mix of warm waters and low wind shear develops. Indeed, water temperatures are a very warm 30°C, wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, and the atmosphere is very moist in the Gulf--ideal conditions for a tropical storm. Hermine promises to be a very wet storm, and latest long range radar out of Brownsville, Texas shows a large area of heavy rain has moved ashore over southern Texas and northern Mexico, with radar estimated rainfall amounts already exceeding two inches in a few areas along the coast. Radar loops show that an eyewall may be beginning to form, and I expect this process will continue through the afternoon and early evening. Satellite imagery shows that Hermine is getting more organized, with vigorous thunderstorms with very cold tops building, low-level spiral bands developing, and improving upper-level outflow occurring on all sides except the west. There is some dry air to the west of Hermine over land that is restricting the storm's development there.

Forecast for Hermine
Hermine doesn't have much time over water before it comes ashore, which is a good thing. Hermine is organizing rapidly, and has a shot at reaching hurricane strength before the center moves ashore late tonight, near midnight. Neither the GFDL or HWRF models develop Hermine into a hurricane, but the HWRF model does predict that tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph will affect the coast as far north as Corpus Christi, Texas. Heavy rain will be the main threat from Hermine, though isolated tornadoes may also cause damage, particularly over South Texas. Hermine is expected to accelerate through Central Texas Tuesday and Wednesday, and the storm's rains will help alleviate moderate to severe drought conditions affecting Central Texas.


Figure 1. Early afternoon radar image of Tropical Storm Hermine.

Gaston continues to suffer from dry air
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston are now approaching the northern Lesser Antilles, and residents can expect a few heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 40 mph beginning late this afternoon and continuing into the night. A pass from the ASCAT satellite this morning at 9:03 am EDT showed a large region of 25 mph winds on the north side of Gaston's circulation, and these winds will move into the northern Lesser Antilles late this afternoon. Latest radar out of Martinique doesn't show much in the way of heavy rain, and satellite imagery confirms that the thunderstorm activity associated with Gaston's remains is quite sparse. Gaston does have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Forecast for Gaston
Dry air will continue to be the major impediment to development for Gaston, and the system is unlikely to become a tropical depression today. However, wind shear, which is currently a moderate 10 knots, is forecast by the latest SHIPS model run to fall very low, 0 - 5 knots, tonight through Wednesday. With almost no wind shear affecting it, Gaston will a better chance of keeping the moisture from its heavy thunderstorms near it core on Tuesday. This will insulate the storm from the dry air surrounding it. The atmosphere is also moister in the eastern Caribbean, further increasing the chances of development. I believe it is probable Gaston will become a tropical depression again on Tuesday. NHC is currently giving Gaston a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, which is a reasonable forecast. The models don't give much support for Gaston surviving past Wednesday, since many of them have the storm hitting the rugged island of Hispaniola, disrupting the storm.

Heavy rain showers and gusty winds from the storm will affect Puerto Rico Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. This activity will spread to the Dominican Republic Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Assuming dry air and an encounter with Hispaniola's high mountains do not destroy Gaston, heavy rain from the storm should move over Haiti, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and Jamaica Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Though none of the global dynamical computer models are showing this, should Gaston survive the dry air and its coming encounter with Hispaniola, the storm will find itself in a very favorable environment for development in the Western Caribbean late in the week, and could intensify into a hurricane by next weekend.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The models are fairly unanimous in predicting development late this week of a tropical wave expected to emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday. The next storm will be called Igor, and let's hope it doesn't live up to its fearsome-sounding name!

Next post
There will be an update by early this evening.

Jeff Masters

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nice visible eye on radar
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Eyewall starting to form on radar...
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Just in , in the Local News Met Ada Monzon, announced that HH planes found 38 mph winds, while flying around Ex-Gaston COC.
Member Since: July 31, 2008 Posts: 0 Comments: 730
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Cool since those images are awesome.


Well I like your little weather nerd dude. ;^)
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702. xcool
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Quoting Dennis8:
Here in Houston ...3 miles north downtown..fringe of Hermine with out first outer rainband.TS Gusts (40mph)..Tropical Downpour...50 inch in 15 minutes w/ lightning and no satellite TV for a few minutes. 78 degrees and 29.92" on the Davis Barometer.


Hey Dennis Pearland here! Just had that storm earlier. Was nice! I am ready for more!
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Is the "INTENS" column here supposed to be Dvorak values? Because the pressure column seems to indicate that.

Link
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Hey guys! Really short of time today. Does anyone knows if Hermine it's making lately more of a NW jog? Maybe reaching the coast prior to the TX/MX border. Thanks in advance!
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Quoting will40:


he ill cuz school starts back tomorrow


Huh?

I've been in school...I'm just tired of seeing him say that over and over and over and over again.
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697. xcool
moonlightcowboy .Gaston
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696. Skyepony (Mod)
12hr rain totals
click pic to enlarge
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010L/H/H/C1
MARK
24.10N/97.01W
NEARING LANDFALL
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Don't worry about it.

You can use any of them.


Cool since those images are awesome.
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.
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Quoting NOSinger:


Hurricane....I'm pretty sure his point is that we "ALL" know that you feel Gaston is not gonna make it...No need to continually keep repeating yourself. The ones who think he will (which seems like the more professional) are backing up their statements with facts and figures...which I really haven't seen you do. I don't believe you need to have "Facts and figures" to have an opinion, but it will be more respected if you did...JMO..


want facts?

recon showed a weak windshift and weak west winds, meaning the circulation is weakening. atcf rose the pressure to 1011mb and the system is still embedded in dry air

there are your facts, these are things I stated before; but I guess you chose to ignore those
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Quoting moonlightcowboy:



Good obs SouthALWX and GainesvilleGator! Said what StormW said pretty much! ;)

thanks :)
Also, Im wondering if what the euro is showing is Gaston??
I havent had time to see if it fits the timeline but I dont see what else it could be?? If the Euro is on board with not killing him off then it's game on.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


wow blow a gasket much?

guess I am not allowed my opinion, I am looking through the blog and well everyone is repeating their opinion and yet you blow a gasket at me because of what I am saying

I think you need to step away from the computer for awhile


Hurricane....I'm pretty sure his point is that we "ALL" know that you feel Gaston is not gonna make it...No need to continually keep repeating yourself. The ones who think he will (which seems like the more professional) are backing up their statements with facts and figures...which I really haven't seen you do. I don't believe you need to have "Facts and figures" to have an opinion, but it will be more respected if you did...JMO..
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Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 19:22Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Storm Number & Year: 10L in 2010
Storm Name: Hermine (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 19:09:40Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 24°11'N 96°46'W (24.1833N 96.7667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 129 miles (208 km) to the SSE (160°) from Brownsville, TX, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,385m (4,544ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 47kts (~ 54.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 26 nautical miles (30 statute miles) to the NE (46°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 149° at 48kts (From the SSE at ~ 55.2mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the NE (45°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 995mb (29.38 inHg) - Extrapolated
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 18°C (64°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 16°C (61°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind and Pressure
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section


fortunately or unfortunately they caught hermine as he coughed..hope they stick around because he has been stronger i suspect
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Here in Houston ...3 miles north downtown..fringe of Hermine with out first outer rainband.TS Gusts (40mph)..Tropical Downpour...50 inch in 15 minutes w/ lightning and no satellite TV for a few minutes. 78 degrees and 29.92" on the Davis Barometer.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

lol Sorry I just loved that image.


Don't worry about it.

You can use any of them.

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Since it's on the increase again they should find even lower on next pass.
Member Since: August 10, 2007 Posts: 0 Comments: 3293
Quoting will40:


he ill cuz school starts back tomorrow


ah ok that explains it

anyway Hermine vortex message is out and it appears unlikely she will become a hurricane, but who knows
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Here is the latest nowcast -- an example of how Hermine is affecting those far, far away. 35 to 50 -- no wonder I thought it was pretty windy!

Now
Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to move to the north near 25 mph this afternoon. Expect gusty winds of 35 to 50 mph with the storms...which may cause power interruptions. Rainfall amounts will range from one tenth to one third of an inch...with isolated totals near three quarters of an inch...through 3 PM.
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Still 60mph I see.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


wow blow a gasket much?



he ill cuz school starts back tomorrow
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Quoting Stormchaser2007:


Hm.

That avatar looks mighty familiar.

lol

lol Sorry I just loved that image.
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Quoting SouthALWX:
@MLC
So far, the tutt is moving in tandem with gaston to the wnw and is poised to vent him.



Good obs SouthALWX and GainesvilleGator! Said what StormW said pretty much! ;)
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677. JLPR2
Well I must say Gaston is looking a little better, he recovered its west side from the dry air, but he needs to work on his north side now, I'm going to the movies now so I'll be back later to see he's doing and see what happened with Hermine at the end.
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


Enough Already!

I bet I can find 4 posts already where you have said that Gaston is weakening or about to die!

Enough Already!


wow blow a gasket much?

guess I am not allowed my opinion, I am looking through the blog and well everyone is repeating their opinion and yet you blow a gasket at me because of what I am saying

I think you need to step away from the computer for awhile
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

1


Hm...

That avatar looks mighty familiar.

lol
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674. Skyepony (Mod)
recon center fix ~24.183N 96.767W 994.7mb
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She gets closer and closer to the coast...
Member Since: August 23, 2008 Posts: 7 Comments: 5300
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Hey MLC haven't crossed paths. Seen some of your posts but wasn't sure you were on. Is the H storm headed your direction?


Hey, Shen! Hope all is well with you.

Hermine? Nope, but looking regularly at Gaston's future for sure - central ngom coast, and all points in between. Not liking what potential it has.
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671. xcool


Gaston
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994.7 looks like the low in Hermine although there were still 19 kt winds where they got that reading so I'm not convinced that is the the center.
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Wow! I am in E Texas way north of Houston and it is BLOWING like mad here -- no rain yet but very windy and stormy looking! Actually, getting kind of scary ... I hope it doesn't get too much windier...
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Quoting xcool:
Gaston
going gom wow byECMWF...


Do not think that is Gaston, as that is a full 10 days from now.
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994mb so far


19:10:00Z 24.183N 96.767W 843.2 mb
(~ 24.90 inHg) 1,455 meters
(~ 4,774 feet) 994.7 mb
(~ 29.37 inHg) - From 273° at 14 knots
(From the W at ~ 16.1 mph) 18.8°C
(~ 65.8°F) 18.8°C
(~ 65.8°F) 19 knots
(~ 21.8 mph) 28 knots*
(~ 32.2 mph*) 6 mm/hr*
(~ 0.24 in/hr*) 20.6 knots* (~ 23.7 mph*)
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Port Isabel (see if it works this time)

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AL, 10, 2010090618, , BEST, 0, 241N, 966W, 50, 995, TS, 34, NEQ, 90, 90, 20, 50
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662. xcool
Gaston
going in gom wow byECMWF
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661. JLPR2
Quoting hydrus:
If Gaston stays as is, it will enter the extreme Northern Caribbean Sea in about 48 hours.


Jeez still 48hrs of watching Gaston, this is wearing me out. XD LOL
Member Since: September 4, 2007 Posts: 7 Comments: 8747
994.7 mb
(~ 29.37 inHg)
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Quoting JAC737:
Does it look like Hermine is now heading more north than northwest? It looks to me like it might travel right up the coast of Texas, after looking at satellite images on weather.com. We could use the rain...
\\

it sort of does, judging from long range radar, but it's probably something you don't want to wish for as a longer track is very likely to mean much greater intensity...
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


only thing is there may not be anything left of Gaston by that time, to me it appears he is weakening fast, recon observations thus far are very unimpressive thus far


Enough Already!

I bet I can find 4 posts already where you have said that Gaston is weakening or about to die!

Enough Already!
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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