Hurricane watches for Mexico and Texas as Hermine suddenly develops

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:15 PM GMT on September 06, 2010

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Hurricane watches are up for the Texas/Mexico border region as fast developing Tropical Storm Hermine steams towards the coast at 13 mph. Hermine was a tropical depression twelve hours ago, got its name just six hours ago, but already is a threat to intensify into a hurricane by tonight. It's remarkable how fast Gulf of Mexico disturbances can blow up into strong tropical storms, when the right mix of warm waters and low wind shear develops. Indeed, water temperatures are a very warm 30°C, wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, and the atmosphere is very moist in the Gulf--ideal conditions for a tropical storm. Hermine promises to be a very wet storm, and latest long range radar out of Brownsville, Texas shows a large area of heavy rain has moved ashore over southern Texas and northern Mexico, with radar estimated rainfall amounts already exceeding two inches in a few areas along the coast. Radar loops show that an eyewall may be beginning to form, and I expect this process will continue through the afternoon and early evening. Satellite imagery shows that Hermine is getting more organized, with vigorous thunderstorms with very cold tops building, low-level spiral bands developing, and improving upper-level outflow occurring on all sides except the west. There is some dry air to the west of Hermine over land that is restricting the storm's development there.

Forecast for Hermine
Hermine doesn't have much time over water before it comes ashore, which is a good thing. Hermine is organizing rapidly, and has a shot at reaching hurricane strength before the center moves ashore late tonight, near midnight. Neither the GFDL or HWRF models develop Hermine into a hurricane, but the HWRF model does predict that tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph will affect the coast as far north as Corpus Christi, Texas. Heavy rain will be the main threat from Hermine, though isolated tornadoes may also cause damage, particularly over South Texas. Hermine is expected to accelerate through Central Texas Tuesday and Wednesday, and the storm's rains will help alleviate moderate to severe drought conditions affecting Central Texas.


Figure 1. Early afternoon radar image of Tropical Storm Hermine.

Gaston continues to suffer from dry air
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston are now approaching the northern Lesser Antilles, and residents can expect a few heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 40 mph beginning late this afternoon and continuing into the night. A pass from the ASCAT satellite this morning at 9:03 am EDT showed a large region of 25 mph winds on the north side of Gaston's circulation, and these winds will move into the northern Lesser Antilles late this afternoon. Latest radar out of Martinique doesn't show much in the way of heavy rain, and satellite imagery confirms that the thunderstorm activity associated with Gaston's remains is quite sparse. Gaston does have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Forecast for Gaston
Dry air will continue to be the major impediment to development for Gaston, and the system is unlikely to become a tropical depression today. However, wind shear, which is currently a moderate 10 knots, is forecast by the latest SHIPS model run to fall very low, 0 - 5 knots, tonight through Wednesday. With almost no wind shear affecting it, Gaston will a better chance of keeping the moisture from its heavy thunderstorms near it core on Tuesday. This will insulate the storm from the dry air surrounding it. The atmosphere is also moister in the eastern Caribbean, further increasing the chances of development. I believe it is probable Gaston will become a tropical depression again on Tuesday. NHC is currently giving Gaston a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, which is a reasonable forecast. The models don't give much support for Gaston surviving past Wednesday, since many of them have the storm hitting the rugged island of Hispaniola, disrupting the storm.

Heavy rain showers and gusty winds from the storm will affect Puerto Rico Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. This activity will spread to the Dominican Republic Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Assuming dry air and an encounter with Hispaniola's high mountains do not destroy Gaston, heavy rain from the storm should move over Haiti, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and Jamaica Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Though none of the global dynamical computer models are showing this, should Gaston survive the dry air and its coming encounter with Hispaniola, the storm will find itself in a very favorable environment for development in the Western Caribbean late in the week, and could intensify into a hurricane by next weekend.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The models are fairly unanimous in predicting development late this week of a tropical wave expected to emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday. The next storm will be called Igor, and let's hope it doesn't live up to its fearsome-sounding name!

Next post
There will be an update by early this evening.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting btwntx08:
oh boy
Looks like you might get some rain...lol
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 23274
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yeah, which comes in 30 minutes after the intermediate advisory and 3 hours before the 5pm advisory. That's what I hate about relying solely on satellite estimates, the cyclone will undoubtedly change in organization between 18z and 21z. Anyways, the NHC does have the capability to get a more accurate intensity estimate by basing it off of latest radar or surface observations, but there just isn't anything as good as Recon.

I'd rather put Hermine at the intensity it seems to be to my eyes. Meaning:
65mph
995mb
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Quoting StormGoddess:
Hermine is headed for....Oklahoma? That's a tad different.... NHC track


Not really. Erin went up there. If Rita would have been on track its leftovers would have gone up there. The storm just follows the ridge it seems. I used to live up there, went to met school one yr and did some storm chasing and helped out at fox news during severe weather. Good times!
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Quoting IKE:


PWS 6 miles from me has a temp of 89.7 and a heat index of....Heat Index: 96 °F


Miami's at 85 with a heat index of 95 lol

Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
Link
Link

Should we be looking for a yellow circle at the 2 pm TWO for this African wave (pre 91L/pre Igor)?
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well i see the US deflector program is still in effect for the US east coast. the synoptic pattern refuses to change in the Cental Atl..As it appears now if Igor is to be named he also will recurve around 60W. And the system behind that one two. the place for the US to look will be the Caribbean and Gulf as this month goes by and esp Oct.. i don't see any reasons in the longwave patterns for the Atl to change.. its one digging trof after another.the 500 ananomly has not materalized as forecasted for the NE
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150. IKE
Quoting StormW:


Geez IKE, your location is warmer than me. I'm at 87F right now. What's your Heat Index?


PWS 6 miles from me has a temp of 89.7 and a heat index of....Heat Index: 96 °F
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Ugh, double post. Here's a satellite image, lol:

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
Appears a replacement for origional recon of Hermine just took off.

000
URNT15 KNHC 061656
AF301 0210A HERMINE HDOB 02 20100906


Link
Fantastic! Thanks for the info Nrt.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting centex:
Nothing like home brew.


What, Hermine's going to Shiner?
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Recon link for Hermine

Link
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144. JRRP
Quoting DarIvy959810:
Is that IGOR look to be a scary name for you?

Igor the terrible
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

They (NHC) will have to rely on satellite estimates now. Until recon goes to Hermine.
Yeah, which comes in 30 minutes after the intermediate advisory and 3 hours before the 5pm advisory. That's what I hate about relying solely on satellite estimates, the cyclone will undoubtedly change in organization between 18z and 21z. Anyways, the NHC does have the capability to get a more accurate intensity estimate by basing it off of latest radar or surface observations, but there just isn't anything as good as the hard-core information from Recon.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting StormGoddess:
Hermine is headed for....Oklahoma? That's a tad different.... NHC track


Please see my post to StormW. This is no surprise to us here in SW OK.
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WOW!!!

Whats up with the Storm W bashing? I have read this blog since 06 and there are only a few people here that can forecast! The rest of us are just a waste of space lol.

Hey Ike!
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Quoting HCW:


Replacement Hunter is up -

As of the last observation at 16:46:30Z, the plane's...

Direction of Travel: WNW (290°)
Location: 10 miles (15 km) to the E (84°) from Gulfport, MS, USA.


yay
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Quoting IKE:
***Got my popcorn and ice-cold Coca-Cola.***

91.8 outside...sunny skies.


It was 70 degrees here yesterday and breezy. It was amazing!
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Appears a replacement for origional recon of Hermine just took off.

000
URNT15 KNHC 061656
AF301 0210A HERMINE HDOB 02 20100906


Link
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Quoting StormGoddess:
Hermine is headed for....Oklahoma? That's a tad different.... NHC track

lol
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Quoting StormW:


Yeah. It appears to be hitting better on cyclogenesis than track.


gfs has had this potential storm, now Hermine, not only forming but also going in to TXMx Border since at least Sat a.m. 0904 06z gfs from fsu site.

Still does. I don't look at every run so maybe its focus changed from run to run, but anyone who's been watching coulda had an inkling two days ago what today would bring. My local mets in Norman have had it in their sights for a possible severe TS and rain event for at least two days based in part on gfs track.
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134. HCW


Replacement Hunter is up -

As of the last observation at 16:46:30Z, the plane's...

Direction of Travel: WNW (290°)
Location: 10 miles (15 km) to the E (84°) from Gulfport, MS, USA.

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Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
I have to figure that the rest of these Cape Verde systems rolling off Africa will pull a Danielle or something similar, unless they silently traverse the Atlantic like Gaston has, and wait until 55-60 W to develop. For those stronger systems, a trough/weakness will get them sooner or later.


there are ALOT of them, like half a dozen of very strong trpoical lows over africa..
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Hermine is rapidly organizing but Recon had to leave before they got into the system due to radar issues.


What is your source of this info?

Any idea if they will launch another bird to replace this one?
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Hermine is headed for....Oklahoma? That's a tad different.... NHC track
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Hermine is rapidly organizing/deepening but Recon had to leave before they got into the system due to radar issues.

They (NHC) will have to rely on satellite estimates now. Until recon goes to Hermine.
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128. IKE
***Got my popcorn and ice-cold Coca-Cola.***

91.8 outside...sunny skies.
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Nothing like home brew.
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I have to figure that the rest of these Cape Verde systems rolling off Africa will pull a Danielle or something similar, unless they silently traverse the Atlantic like Gaston has, and wait until 55-60 W to develop. For those stronger systems, a trough/weakness will get them sooner or later.
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Quoting PtownBryan:
Wow I went to bed for 9 hrs and look what TD 10 did! Thank the Lord because we need the rain in the Houston area. Sorry south Texas and Mexico, will send prayers your way. Yall can always send Hermine up here if ya want but I think central Texas is looking forward to some wet weather!
Yes we are, very little here the past 2 months, have a great day everyone
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Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting will40:


someone mentioned earlier about radar probs but i didnt see a resource


Well if the dropsonde picked up ~cat 5 winds (granted at altitude) then I think they have some kind of instrument problem.
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Wow I went to bed for 9 hrs and look what TD 10 did! Thank the Lord because we need the rain in the Houston area. Sorry south Texas and Mexico, will send prayers your way. Yall can always send Hermine up here if ya want but I think central Texas is looking forward to some wet weather!
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I agree with Dr. M that Gaston should become a TD by tomorrow. Still think we could see a serious threat from Gaston in the Caribbean if it stays south of DR/Haiti.
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


which thing and why?


I just got on, wondering what you are talking about

I know we have Hermine
Hermine definitely appears to be rapidly organizing/deepening but Recon had to leave before they got into the system due to radar issues.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting hydrus: link?
Hurricane Celia info:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/crp/?n=celia1970

Location (* - estimated) Max Sustained Wind Max Wind Gust
Aransas Pass NNE 130 mph SW 180 mph *
Corpus Christi WSO SW 125 mph SW 161 mph
Port Aransas Coast Guard NNE 104 mph NNE 127 mph
Gregory (Reynolds Plant) NNW 128 mph NNW 138 mph
Refugio 3S NNE 120 mph NNE 160 mph *
Bayside E 110 mph ESE 140 mph *
Portland/Odem N&S 160 mph *
Robstown WSW 180 mph *

(sorry the table didn't format correctly)
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114. hercj
Quoting StormW:


You're funny! Ever think of going into comedy?
Quoting Skyepony:


Had to run out there a bit. Just getting in & noticed that. AF303 looks to have flown down to 26.3N 93W turned around & started flying back. Chucked a dropsonde a little north of where they then turned around..bazaar.. especially since the mission identifier is Hermine & not some untasked mission. Look at the winds from the dropsonde..

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
1014mb (Surface) 130° (from the SE) 17 knots (20 mph)
1009mb 135° (from the SE) 22 knots (25 mph)
984mb 130° (from the SE) 23 knots (26 mph)
971mb 130° (from the SE) 22 knots (25 mph)
964mb 185° (from the S) 14 knots (16 mph)
961mb 105° (from the ESE) 47 knots (54 mph)
959mb 95° (from the E) 157 knots (181 mph)
957mb 95° (from the E) 146 knots (168 mph)
954mb 105° (from the ESE) 51 knots (59 mph)
951mb 125° (from the SE) 24 knots (28 mph)
948mb 140° (from the SE) 21 knots (24 mph)
931mb 145° (from the SE) 25 knots (29 mph)
915mb 145° (from the SE) 21 knots (24 mph)
850mb 160° (from the SSE) 25 knots (29 mph)
790mb 145° (from the SE) 23 knots (26 mph)
736mb 155° (from the SSE) 21 knots (24 mph)
706mb 135° (from the SE) 17 knots (20 mph)
691mb 150° (from the SSE) 14 knots (16 mph)
677mb 135° (from the SE) 14 knots (16 mph)
633mb 160° (from the SSE) 12 knots (14 mph)
579mb 125° (from the SE) 2 knots (2 mph)
488mb 350° (from the N) 10 knots (12 mph)
426mb 295° (from the WNW) 11 knots (13 mph)
393mb 295° (from the WNW) 17 knots (20 mph)


Hey Sky look at the altitude. Is this a synoptic mission?
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


which thing and why?


I just got on, wondering what you are talking about

I know we have Hermine


Hermine seems to be getting her act together real quick.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Your avatar is, cute-ish and creepy. lol


lol it's a sackboy
Member Since: April 17, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 1753
IGOR a scary name, and about IVAN the terrible
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


which thing and why?


I just got on, wondering what you are talking about

I know we have Hermine


Hermine. Looks to be rapidly intensifying.
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Gaston looks like it is about to start cranking again. Go here:
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=AL092010
And look at the visible loop. There is stuff firing up right over the center now, and the bands all around it are starting to get that misty appearance that bands get right before they pop with convection. Not to mention the convection that has already popped on the SW and SE sides this morning.
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Quoting Skyepony:


But then they turned around & flew home...Either the something scared them or something was broke.


someone mentioned earlier about radar probs but i didnt see a resource
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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