Hurricane watches for Mexico and Texas as Hermine suddenly develops

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:15 PM GMT on September 06, 2010

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Hurricane watches are up for the Texas/Mexico border region as fast developing Tropical Storm Hermine steams towards the coast at 13 mph. Hermine was a tropical depression twelve hours ago, got its name just six hours ago, but already is a threat to intensify into a hurricane by tonight. It's remarkable how fast Gulf of Mexico disturbances can blow up into strong tropical storms, when the right mix of warm waters and low wind shear develops. Indeed, water temperatures are a very warm 30°C, wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, and the atmosphere is very moist in the Gulf--ideal conditions for a tropical storm. Hermine promises to be a very wet storm, and latest long range radar out of Brownsville, Texas shows a large area of heavy rain has moved ashore over southern Texas and northern Mexico, with radar estimated rainfall amounts already exceeding two inches in a few areas along the coast. Radar loops show that an eyewall may be beginning to form, and I expect this process will continue through the afternoon and early evening. Satellite imagery shows that Hermine is getting more organized, with vigorous thunderstorms with very cold tops building, low-level spiral bands developing, and improving upper-level outflow occurring on all sides except the west. There is some dry air to the west of Hermine over land that is restricting the storm's development there.

Forecast for Hermine
Hermine doesn't have much time over water before it comes ashore, which is a good thing. Hermine is organizing rapidly, and has a shot at reaching hurricane strength before the center moves ashore late tonight, near midnight. Neither the GFDL or HWRF models develop Hermine into a hurricane, but the HWRF model does predict that tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph will affect the coast as far north as Corpus Christi, Texas. Heavy rain will be the main threat from Hermine, though isolated tornadoes may also cause damage, particularly over South Texas. Hermine is expected to accelerate through Central Texas Tuesday and Wednesday, and the storm's rains will help alleviate moderate to severe drought conditions affecting Central Texas.


Figure 1. Early afternoon radar image of Tropical Storm Hermine.

Gaston continues to suffer from dry air
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston are now approaching the northern Lesser Antilles, and residents can expect a few heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 40 mph beginning late this afternoon and continuing into the night. A pass from the ASCAT satellite this morning at 9:03 am EDT showed a large region of 25 mph winds on the north side of Gaston's circulation, and these winds will move into the northern Lesser Antilles late this afternoon. Latest radar out of Martinique doesn't show much in the way of heavy rain, and satellite imagery confirms that the thunderstorm activity associated with Gaston's remains is quite sparse. Gaston does have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Forecast for Gaston
Dry air will continue to be the major impediment to development for Gaston, and the system is unlikely to become a tropical depression today. However, wind shear, which is currently a moderate 10 knots, is forecast by the latest SHIPS model run to fall very low, 0 - 5 knots, tonight through Wednesday. With almost no wind shear affecting it, Gaston will a better chance of keeping the moisture from its heavy thunderstorms near it core on Tuesday. This will insulate the storm from the dry air surrounding it. The atmosphere is also moister in the eastern Caribbean, further increasing the chances of development. I believe it is probable Gaston will become a tropical depression again on Tuesday. NHC is currently giving Gaston a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, which is a reasonable forecast. The models don't give much support for Gaston surviving past Wednesday, since many of them have the storm hitting the rugged island of Hispaniola, disrupting the storm.

Heavy rain showers and gusty winds from the storm will affect Puerto Rico Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. This activity will spread to the Dominican Republic Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Assuming dry air and an encounter with Hispaniola's high mountains do not destroy Gaston, heavy rain from the storm should move over Haiti, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and Jamaica Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Though none of the global dynamical computer models are showing this, should Gaston survive the dry air and its coming encounter with Hispaniola, the storm will find itself in a very favorable environment for development in the Western Caribbean late in the week, and could intensify into a hurricane by next weekend.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The models are fairly unanimous in predicting development late this week of a tropical wave expected to emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday. The next storm will be called Igor, and let's hope it doesn't live up to its fearsome-sounding name!

Next post
There will be an update by early this evening.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting Patrap:
NEXRAD Radar
Brownsville, Storm Total Surface Rainfall Accumulation Range 124 NMI




Patrap,

You know what's interesting in that radar loop, if only to me? The artifact of it being a summation of past radar loops. You can see the eye in step fashion as it moves, with circles off set from one another.
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1055. Patrap
HERMINE Floater - Water Vapor Loop

Check the MSLP BOX for steering layer
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The "eye" is almost complete. Once the eye is completed, we can expect rapid intensification.
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Quoting Patrap:

Great image..can see her pushing dry air nortward....
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1052. Patrap
ALL NOAA Floater Imagery
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Quoting Orcasystems:


You can be on the "right" side of a storm? j/k


Definitely. See Earl and NC.
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Hooray for extrapolated pressure not working as they fix in on the center! Not.
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1049. Patrap
I dont know bout all dat,..but I'll accept the NOLA Part hands down.,,

Enjoy yer Labor Day evening chicklit.


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Quoting Orcasystems:


You can be on the "right" side of a storm? j/k


The right side is the wrong side in most storms ;)
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1047. Skylink
Done, Thanks

Once again here is the link for the Web Cams in and around the lower Texas Coast.

click hereLink
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1046. Patrap
Hermine Floater - RGB Color Infrared Loop
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Patrick, you symbolize NOLA's strength and resilience 'round these parts.
Glad to see you back. Leadership entails responsibility. L8R.
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Quoting futuremet:


I like that graphic, it shows alot of good info their.
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1043. Patrap
Shes making a heck of a effort Thel,..

a tad stale but impressive RAINBOW image

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Quoting serialteg:


You probably dont live in the islands... ?


Not sure what you're implying, but if it's something about living there, knowing waters are warm then you miss the point. The post simply suggested that Gaston's position may be just a tad south of Earl's and Fiona's wake which would have upwelled cooler water. Still, I don't think that's the driving issue with Gaston. It's been dry air, and lately its been the ULL to his west that's been robbing his moisture, slowly and surely, allowing more dry air to entrain Gaston's core.

If he can distance himself enough from the moisture-robbing ULL which has been ill-serving to ventilate the system, and perhaps get in a moisture-rich environment, south of any previous upwelling, Gaston may finally be able to create enough moisture lift, faster than its being robbed, and maintain enough convection over the coc to kick start the tropical engine, recycling its moisture.
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Looks to me Herm has all but closed off its inner core....... it would seem Herm wants to go into the record books as a Hurricane!
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Quoting mnborn:

that puts Both Brownsville & Matamoros on the wrong side of the storm...


You can be on the "right" side of a storm? j/k
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1039. deepee
Quoting Cotillion:
For someone who is not exactly in tune with Deep South Texan/Northeastern Mexico geography...

Is that supposed to be an island just below the Texas/Mexico border on the radar? I can't find any mention of any.


Only god knows what it is. It is definitely not what the coast looks like.

google maps satellite view would be your best bet for an accurate representation of what the coast currently looks like.
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Quoting Patrap:
Where do these post come from and why?

Its a embarrassment to the site and Jeff who provides this forum for all.

One day,..you may see "No Comments allowed".

Sooner than later if it keeps up.

That,..I CAN assure many,


Seriously, it's the poor grammar and barely-understandable sentences like this that degrade the forum. Remove the log from your own eye before going after the specks in others
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FUT/MET'S A DH
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1036. mnborn
Quoting aspectre:
TropicalStormHermine's heading had turned westward to (3.8degrees west of) NorthWest
from its previous heading of (2.5degrees north of) NorthWest
TD.10's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~14mph(~22.5km/h)

Invest90L -- 6hour interval between positions
05Sep . 06pmGMT - - 19.9n95.7w - - 25knots - - 1004mb - - NHC-ATCF *95.9w
06Sep . 12amGMT - - 20.4n9.54w - - 25knots - - 1003mb - - NHC-ATCF
TD.10 -- 3hour intervals between positions (including the previous one and the next)
06Sep . 03amGMT - - 20.7n95.2w - - 30mph - - 1003mb - - NHC.Adv.#1
06Sep . 06amGMT - - 20.9n95.0w - - 35mph - - 1003mb - - #1A
TD.10 becomes TS.Hermine
06Sep . 09amGMT - - 21.6n95.0w - - 40mph - - 1001mb - - #2
06Sep . 12pmGMT - - 22.4n95.3w - - 45mph - - - 995mb - - #2A
06Sep . 03pmGMT - - 23.4n95.8w - - 50mph - - - 998mb - - #3
06Sep . 06pmGMT - - 24.1n96.5w - - 60mph - - - 995mb - - #3A
06Sep . 09pmGMT - - 24.5n97.0w - - 60mph - - - 992mb - - #4

25knots=~28.8mph __ ~26.1knots=30mph

Copy and paste 19.9n95.7w, 20.4n95.4w, 20.7n95.2w, 20.9n95.0w, 21.6n95.0w-22.4n95.3w, 22.4n95.3w-23.4n95.8w, 23.4n95.8w-24.1n96.5w, 24.1n96.5w-24.5n97.0w, mid, bro, 24.5n97.0w-25.06N97.7w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~4&1/2hours from now to ElMezquite,Tamaulipas,Mexico

* Before the NHC reevaluated&alterered the ATCF numbers.
^ The final line-segment is the straightline projection. The first unconnected dot off the southern coast shows a position that was measured 6hours earlier than the following dots.

that puts Both Brownsville & Matamoros on the wrong side of the storm...
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1035. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
Brownsville, Storm Total Surface Rainfall Accumulation Range 124 NMI


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Quoting PELLSPROG:
Looks to me like it goes into Mexico as a Tropical storm .


OMG, TODALY DUDE. "O" DID U HOOK UP WITH SKYPONY. *SWEET* !
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For someone who is not exactly in tune with Deep South Texan/Northeastern Mexico geography...

Is that supposed to be an island just below the Texas/Mexico border on the radar? I can't find any mention of any.
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1032. Patrap
Quoting want2lrn:


PTRAP, what do the letters and numbers represent in your graphic? TIA Newbie here...


Im a gonna need a post number to be exact.

But the last radar shows the Storms ,,or "Rotation"..or shear within each squall line circulating around.



These can be noted here on the page,,down below the radar.

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50 knt plus flight level winds in that pass... definately can see the eyewall forming
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1030. angiest
Cool, Randy Denzer is on his way down to stream Hermine.
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Feeling pretty good after studying and writing about post bureaucratic organization theory all weekend...bbl after din din.
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Looks to me like it goes into Mexico as a Tropical storm .
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Yea, Our tidal movement is usually measured in inches. The barrier islands are going to see rises measured in feet!
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1026. hydrus
Quoting RecordSeason:
Only Fred 2009 was more pathetic as a remnant low.





did you ever see such a ridiculously large mass of "cool dry air" over the OCEAN?
There is one that was even more pathetic than Ex-Gaston. It was Dennis in 1981. I could not find a sat pic of it. But it was puny and pitiful to say the least. It did make a come back in the Atlantic late in its existence.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21762
1025. ginajo
Quoting Skylink:
Please check out the these webcams of South Padre, also let me know if there are any more to add

click here Link


matagordabay.com has a webcam on this site. Matagorda, Texas
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Hurricanes12: WHOA is right!

Where'd that thing come from?
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1023. Patrap
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Quoting Skylink:
Please check out the these webcams of South Padre, also let me know if there are any more to add

click here Link
you need to resize those giant webcam images tooo large & center on page better
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1020. HarryMc
Quoting Chicklit:


Gaston, while still modest, is looking happier with himself atm.

Yea. Still thinking next couple of days he might get his MoJo back together with a little more favorable conditions coming up.
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Quoting Patrap:


PTRAP, what do the letters and numbers represent in your graphic? TIA Newbie here...
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looking at the visible floater of ex gaston, he appears to have a much bigger circulation than one might think.
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1016. Patrap
Where do these post come from and why?

Its a embarrassment to the site and Jeff who provides this forum for all.

One day,..you may see "No Comments allowed".

Sooner than later if it keeps up.

That,..I CAN assure many,
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TropicalStormHermine's heading had turned westward to (3.8degrees west of) NorthWest
from its previous heading of (2.5degrees north of) NorthWest
TS.Hermine's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~14mph(~22.5km/h)

Invest90L -- 6hour interval between positions
05Sep . 06pmGMT - - 19.9n95.7w - - 25knots - - 1004mb - - NHC-ATCF *95.9w
06Sep . 12amGMT - - 20.4n9.54w - - 25knots - - 1003mb - - NHC-ATCF
TD.10 -- 3hour intervals between positions (including the previous one and the next)
06Sep . 03amGMT - - 20.7n95.2w - - 30mph - - 1003mb - - NHC.Adv.#1
06Sep . 06amGMT - - 20.9n95.0w - - 35mph - - 1003mb - - #1A
TD.10 becomes TS.Hermine
06Sep . 09amGMT - - 21.6n95.0w - - 40mph - - 1001mb - - #2
06Sep . 12pmGMT - - 22.4n95.3w - - 45mph - - - 995mb - - #2A
06Sep . 03pmGMT - - 23.4n95.8w - - 50mph - - - 998mb - - #3
06Sep . 06pmGMT - - 24.1n96.5w - - 60mph - - - 995mb - - #3A
06Sep . 09pmGMT - - 24.5n97.0w - - 60mph - - - 992mb - - #4

25knots=~28.8mph __ ~26.1knots=30mph

Copy and paste 19.9n95.7w, 20.4n95.4w, 20.7n95.2w, 20.9n95.0w, 21.6n95.0w-22.4n95.3w, 22.4n95.3w-23.4n95.8w, 23.4n95.8w-24.1n96.5w, 24.1n96.5w-24.5n97.0w, mid, bro, 24.5n97.0w-25.06N97.7w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12^hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~3&1/2hours from now to ElMezquite,Tamaulipas,Mexico

* Before the NHC reevaluated&alterered the ATCF numbers.
^ The final line-segment is the straightline projection. The first unconnected dot off the southern coast shows a position that was measured 6hours earlier than the following dots.
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1012. Patrap
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1011. K8eCane
Good Thing Hermine has no eastward component or more of the Gulf woould be under the gun...as it is NADA, thank goodness
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Fresh update



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Quoting btwntx08:
not to much wind here yet my house


Be safe!
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1007. Skylink
Please check out the these webcams of South Padre, also let me know if there are any more to add

click here Link
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.

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