Hurricane watches for Mexico and Texas as Hermine suddenly develops

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:15 PM GMT on September 06, 2010

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Hurricane watches are up for the Texas/Mexico border region as fast developing Tropical Storm Hermine steams towards the coast at 13 mph. Hermine was a tropical depression twelve hours ago, got its name just six hours ago, but already is a threat to intensify into a hurricane by tonight. It's remarkable how fast Gulf of Mexico disturbances can blow up into strong tropical storms, when the right mix of warm waters and low wind shear develops. Indeed, water temperatures are a very warm 30°C, wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, and the atmosphere is very moist in the Gulf--ideal conditions for a tropical storm. Hermine promises to be a very wet storm, and latest long range radar out of Brownsville, Texas shows a large area of heavy rain has moved ashore over southern Texas and northern Mexico, with radar estimated rainfall amounts already exceeding two inches in a few areas along the coast. Radar loops show that an eyewall may be beginning to form, and I expect this process will continue through the afternoon and early evening. Satellite imagery shows that Hermine is getting more organized, with vigorous thunderstorms with very cold tops building, low-level spiral bands developing, and improving upper-level outflow occurring on all sides except the west. There is some dry air to the west of Hermine over land that is restricting the storm's development there.

Forecast for Hermine
Hermine doesn't have much time over water before it comes ashore, which is a good thing. Hermine is organizing rapidly, and has a shot at reaching hurricane strength before the center moves ashore late tonight, near midnight. Neither the GFDL or HWRF models develop Hermine into a hurricane, but the HWRF model does predict that tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph will affect the coast as far north as Corpus Christi, Texas. Heavy rain will be the main threat from Hermine, though isolated tornadoes may also cause damage, particularly over South Texas. Hermine is expected to accelerate through Central Texas Tuesday and Wednesday, and the storm's rains will help alleviate moderate to severe drought conditions affecting Central Texas.


Figure 1. Early afternoon radar image of Tropical Storm Hermine.

Gaston continues to suffer from dry air
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston are now approaching the northern Lesser Antilles, and residents can expect a few heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 40 mph beginning late this afternoon and continuing into the night. A pass from the ASCAT satellite this morning at 9:03 am EDT showed a large region of 25 mph winds on the north side of Gaston's circulation, and these winds will move into the northern Lesser Antilles late this afternoon. Latest radar out of Martinique doesn't show much in the way of heavy rain, and satellite imagery confirms that the thunderstorm activity associated with Gaston's remains is quite sparse. Gaston does have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Forecast for Gaston
Dry air will continue to be the major impediment to development for Gaston, and the system is unlikely to become a tropical depression today. However, wind shear, which is currently a moderate 10 knots, is forecast by the latest SHIPS model run to fall very low, 0 - 5 knots, tonight through Wednesday. With almost no wind shear affecting it, Gaston will a better chance of keeping the moisture from its heavy thunderstorms near it core on Tuesday. This will insulate the storm from the dry air surrounding it. The atmosphere is also moister in the eastern Caribbean, further increasing the chances of development. I believe it is probable Gaston will become a tropical depression again on Tuesday. NHC is currently giving Gaston a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, which is a reasonable forecast. The models don't give much support for Gaston surviving past Wednesday, since many of them have the storm hitting the rugged island of Hispaniola, disrupting the storm.

Heavy rain showers and gusty winds from the storm will affect Puerto Rico Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. This activity will spread to the Dominican Republic Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Assuming dry air and an encounter with Hispaniola's high mountains do not destroy Gaston, heavy rain from the storm should move over Haiti, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and Jamaica Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Though none of the global dynamical computer models are showing this, should Gaston survive the dry air and its coming encounter with Hispaniola, the storm will find itself in a very favorable environment for development in the Western Caribbean late in the week, and could intensify into a hurricane by next weekend.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The models are fairly unanimous in predicting development late this week of a tropical wave expected to emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday. The next storm will be called Igor, and let's hope it doesn't live up to its fearsome-sounding name!

Next post
There will be an update by early this evening.

Jeff Masters

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207. IKE
12Z CMC...
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting btwntx08:

probably something more than just rain
Consolidating rapidly.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21409
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting PcolaDan:


Well why not? :)

Oklahoma, where the wind comes sweepin' down the plain
And the wavin' wheat can sure smell sweet
When the wind comes right behind the rain.

We know we belong to the land
And the land we belong to is grand!
And when we say
Yeeow! Ayipioeeay!
We're only sayin'
You're doin' fine, Oklahoma!
Oklahoma O.K.
L - A - H - O - M - A
OKLAHOMA!
Yeeow!

Woot! I'll second that! lol :)
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
STORMW Sorry you have to address this issue(not having a degree) but it does tend to haunt those who have the experience and expertise to forecast but do not have a degree. I have 14 years with the NWS as a tech..I can make forecasts based on data available but have always been quiet in modern times because of the lack of a degree in Meteorology. Without a degree it's not credible TO SOME PEOPLE to be too outspoken even if you have the ability to out-forecast a degreed met....I think you do a great job and continue to do so!




Quoting StormW:


I guess you haven't been to mine...what's the matter...afraid you might find out I have the same knowledge or more than someone with a degree? I'll tell ya what funny guy, you go there, and tell me I haven't nailed this. Oh...yeah, before I forget, if nobody visits my blog, then maybe you would like to explain to folks why I've had over 150,000 visits in less than 6 weeks?
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Great news nrt! We're going to get recon.
Member Since: July 8, 2005 Posts: 259 Comments: 24161
Quoting AllStar17:
Recon. finding 35 mph winds well west of ex-Gaston.

They're headed for the little guy?
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Quoting AllStar17:
Recon. finding 35 mph winds well west of ex-Gaston.
What?link?OH!
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197. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Met-wise, why do the models have one strand heading north to LA?


That's a climatology only model that doesn't see the ridge that is there right now.

Here is the % chances of landfall by climatology.
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last night was a bad night for Ex-Gaston

I think the chances for redevelopment should go down to 40 or 50%
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7816
Quoting JBirdFireMedic:
MH09 See 131 please
I know that because on Google Earth you could see Recon returning back to base.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting CycloneUK:

Gaston is small.
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Quoting PtownBryan:


Man if Igor is anything like Ike...


FWIW, Igor was the replacement name for Ivan.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Recon. finding 35 mph winds well west of ex-Gaston.
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16:45 Ex gaston may be trying to fire off a little.
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Me and a bunch of other bloggers thought so 24 hours ago.


Well I can understand why not 24 hours ago, because it really wasn't over water yet. But now, I think it is.
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Member Since: Posts: Comments:
OK Centex, I'm movin on.
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Quoting JRRP:

Igor the terrible


Man if Igor is anything like Ike...
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Quoting btwntx08:

probably something more than just rain
I was being facetious btwntxo8...You might get a hurricane....
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21409
Quoting StormGoddess:
Hermine is headed for....Oklahoma? That's a tad different.... NHC track


Well why not? :)

Oklahoma, where the wind comes sweepin' down the plain
And the wavin' wheat can sure smell sweet
When the wind comes right behind the rain.

We know we belong to the land
And the land we belong to is grand!
And when we say
Yeeow! Ayipioeeay!
We're only sayin'
You're doin' fine, Oklahoma!
Oklahoma O.K.
L - A - H - O - M - A
OKLAHOMA!
Yeeow!
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Ex-Gaston firing some intense thunderstorm activity mainly to the the south and east of the circulation.


Has a lot of dry air to its north. Very intense convection on the areas you mentioned.
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MH09 See 131 please
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179. Skyepony (Mod)
Quoting hercj:

Hey Sky look at the altitude. Is this a synoptic mission?


It was tasked & looked to be on schedule. They were on there way there hadn't even descended. Chucked the 1st dropsonde of the day about even with the TX/MX boarder but en-route well over the GOM. The one before those 2 is like 51KTS. Those dropsondes are like a falling physical thing. They usually work or they don't right? Right data or nothing? It seems like it's tough to question them like a SFMR or something estimating.
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Ex-Gaston firing some intense thunderstorm activity mainly to the the south and east of the circulation.



Looks like he is getting past the driest air.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting originalLT:
I wonder what some of these removed comments are, especially from good people like StormW?
Don't worry move on, lets don't clutter the blog. Remember to be respectful, we all have feelings.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Ex-Gaston firing some intense thunderstorm activity mainly to the the south and east of the circulation.

Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21194
Quoting PtownBryan:


Not really. Erin went up there. If Rita would have been on track its leftovers would have gone up there. The storm just follows the ridge it seems. I used to live up there, went to met school one yr and did some storm chasing and helped out at fox news during severe weather. Good times!

Yeah, I remember a few have come up this direction. Just doesn't happen that often, though. You did some storm chasing out here? Good times indeed! :))
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting lennit:
well i see the US deflector program is still in effect for the US east coast. the synoptic pattern refuses to change in the Cental Atl..As it appears now if Igor is to be named he also will recurve around 60W. And the system behind that one two. the place for the US to look will be the Caribbean and Gulf as this month goes by and esp Oct.. i don't see any reasons in the longwave patterns for the Atl to change.. its one digging trof after another.the 500 ananomly has not materalized as forecasted for the NE


Nice wishcast but.... no
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Quoting sammywammybamy:


I don't follow him but it sounds like he may be.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Quoting reedzone:
Just noticed something. we are AHEAD of 2004.. We were still tracking Frances at this time.
,total tc's yes,but in 04' we already had more hurricanes and more of em we're threaters......
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Anyone have a short term heading estimate on Hermine? I am not believe my eyes yet.
Member Since: August 26, 2006 Posts: 16 Comments: 4766
Met-wise, why do the models have one strand heading north to LA?
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Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Yes we are, very little here the past 2 months, have a great day everyone


Well get ready for the fun fellow Bohonk! You have a great day too!
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Quoting HurricaneGeek:
Link
Link

Should we be looking for a yellow circle at the 2 pm TWO for this African wave (pre 91L/pre Igor)?

Me and a bunch of other bloggers thought so 24 hours ago.
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Grand Cayman 90 with Heat Index of 106
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I wonder what some of these removed comments are, especially from good people like StormW?
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159. IKE
Quoting extreme236:


It was 70 degrees here yesterday and breezy. It was amazing!


Nice temperatures.

Back to warm weather here.
Quoting doorman79:
WOW!!!

Whats up with the Storm W bashing? I have read this blog since 06 and there are only a few people here that can forecast! The rest of us are just a waste of space lol.

Hey Ike!


Hello.
Member Since: Posts: Comments:
Quoting WildHorseDesertTx:
Hurricane Celia info:

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/crp/?n=celia1970

Location (* - estimated) Max Sustained Wind Max Wind Gust
Aransas Pass NNE 130 mph SW 180 mph *
Corpus Christi WSO SW 125 mph SW 161 mph
Port Aransas Coast Guard NNE 104 mph NNE 127 mph
Gregory (Reynolds Plant) NNW 128 mph NNW 138 mph
Refugio 3S NNE 120 mph NNE 160 mph *
Bayside E 110 mph ESE 140 mph *
Portland/Odem N&S 160 mph *
Robstown WSW 180 mph *

(sorry the table didn't format correctly)


Oh, heavens, I remember Celia. Was not supposed to be a dangerous storm and then spawned tornados and did all kinds of damage, especially to Port Aransas. Let's hope Hermine does not do the same thing. Folks on lower Texas coast, please keep an eye on this one.
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Quoting btwntx08:
oh boy
Looks like you might get some rain...lol
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 21409

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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.