Hurricane watches for Mexico and Texas as Hermine suddenly develops

By: Dr. Jeff Masters , 4:15 PM GMT on September 06, 2010

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Hurricane watches are up for the Texas/Mexico border region as fast developing Tropical Storm Hermine steams towards the coast at 13 mph. Hermine was a tropical depression twelve hours ago, got its name just six hours ago, but already is a threat to intensify into a hurricane by tonight. It's remarkable how fast Gulf of Mexico disturbances can blow up into strong tropical storms, when the right mix of warm waters and low wind shear develops. Indeed, water temperatures are a very warm 30°C, wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots, and the atmosphere is very moist in the Gulf--ideal conditions for a tropical storm. Hermine promises to be a very wet storm, and latest long range radar out of Brownsville, Texas shows a large area of heavy rain has moved ashore over southern Texas and northern Mexico, with radar estimated rainfall amounts already exceeding two inches in a few areas along the coast. Radar loops show that an eyewall may be beginning to form, and I expect this process will continue through the afternoon and early evening. Satellite imagery shows that Hermine is getting more organized, with vigorous thunderstorms with very cold tops building, low-level spiral bands developing, and improving upper-level outflow occurring on all sides except the west. There is some dry air to the west of Hermine over land that is restricting the storm's development there.

Forecast for Hermine
Hermine doesn't have much time over water before it comes ashore, which is a good thing. Hermine is organizing rapidly, and has a shot at reaching hurricane strength before the center moves ashore late tonight, near midnight. Neither the GFDL or HWRF models develop Hermine into a hurricane, but the HWRF model does predict that tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph will affect the coast as far north as Corpus Christi, Texas. Heavy rain will be the main threat from Hermine, though isolated tornadoes may also cause damage, particularly over South Texas. Hermine is expected to accelerate through Central Texas Tuesday and Wednesday, and the storm's rains will help alleviate moderate to severe drought conditions affecting Central Texas.


Figure 1. Early afternoon radar image of Tropical Storm Hermine.

Gaston continues to suffer from dry air
The remains of Tropical Storm Gaston are now approaching the northern Lesser Antilles, and residents can expect a few heavy rain showers and wind gusts up to 40 mph beginning late this afternoon and continuing into the night. A pass from the ASCAT satellite this morning at 9:03 am EDT showed a large region of 25 mph winds on the north side of Gaston's circulation, and these winds will move into the northern Lesser Antilles late this afternoon. Latest radar out of Martinique doesn't show much in the way of heavy rain, and satellite imagery confirms that the thunderstorm activity associated with Gaston's remains is quite sparse. Gaston does have developed a well-organized surface circulation, but not enough heavy thunderstorm activity to be considered a tropical depression. A large amount of dry air surrounds Gaston's remains on all sides, as seen on water vapor satellite loops.


Figure 2. Morning satellite image of the remains of Gaston, approaching the Lesser Antilles Islands.

Forecast for Gaston
Dry air will continue to be the major impediment to development for Gaston, and the system is unlikely to become a tropical depression today. However, wind shear, which is currently a moderate 10 knots, is forecast by the latest SHIPS model run to fall very low, 0 - 5 knots, tonight through Wednesday. With almost no wind shear affecting it, Gaston will a better chance of keeping the moisture from its heavy thunderstorms near it core on Tuesday. This will insulate the storm from the dry air surrounding it. The atmosphere is also moister in the eastern Caribbean, further increasing the chances of development. I believe it is probable Gaston will become a tropical depression again on Tuesday. NHC is currently giving Gaston a 70% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Wednesday, which is a reasonable forecast. The models don't give much support for Gaston surviving past Wednesday, since many of them have the storm hitting the rugged island of Hispaniola, disrupting the storm.

Heavy rain showers and gusty winds from the storm will affect Puerto Rico Tuesday morning through Wednesday afternoon. This activity will spread to the Dominican Republic Tuesday afternoon through Thursday morning. Assuming dry air and an encounter with Hispaniola's high mountains do not destroy Gaston, heavy rain from the storm should move over Haiti, eastern Cuba, the Turks and Caicos Islands, and Jamaica Wednesday night and Thursday morning. Though none of the global dynamical computer models are showing this, should Gaston survive the dry air and its coming encounter with Hispaniola, the storm will find itself in a very favorable environment for development in the Western Caribbean late in the week, and could intensify into a hurricane by next weekend.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The models are fairly unanimous in predicting development late this week of a tropical wave expected to emerge from the coast of Africa on Tuesday or Wednesday. The next storm will be called Igor, and let's hope it doesn't live up to its fearsome-sounding name!

Next post
There will be an update by early this evening.

Jeff Masters

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Quoting RecordSeason:
235:

the western side is a tad weak right now, but yes, that is an eye forming. It should be solid within a few hours at this rate.

Cool. But bad.
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5648
Quoting Hurricanes101:


relax drama queen

it was all flight level and they were at 25,000 feet


17:13:00Z 17.850N 59.017W 453.1 mb
(~ 13.38 inHg) 6,661 meters
(~ 21,854 feet)

i agree i dont know why some say they are already in and taking measurements
Member Since: September 19, 2005 Posts: 2 Comments: 4112
Quoting JRRP:

Igor the terrible

IGOR replace IVAN the terrible
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yes.


This storm is further away from landfall then I think some are realizing
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7407
Quoting PtownBryan:


Ok TX Hurricane lets not even think about the same track! I still see people with blue tarped roofs now and then and we are still missing street signs here in Pearland! Plus I don't want to go w/o electricity for 13 days again lol. I have a newfound respect for electricity after Ike!


yeah, I know what you mean. You have a generator? We got one after Rita for the just in case.....
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Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I don't have a direct source, I just heads several people on the blog say that they turned around due to radar problems.


Oh ok. Thanks!
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Quoting Cotillion:


Will she even make 5pm?
Yes.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

That killed the excitement. LOL!
Gaston is fixing to get his title back.
Member Since: September 27, 2007 Posts: 1 Comments: 20547
it appears on radar that it's taking more of a westerly job - maybe 300 degrees... any of the pros on here think this is just a wobble or perhaps a more persistent motion that may last until the coast?
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Quoting IKE:
This hot chick is heading for the coast....



Will she even make 5pm?
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Quoting IKE:
This hot chick is heading for the coast....



Great news, maybe it will stay a TS with an early landfall. Though the rains will be torrential unfortunately.
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Quoting StormW:
Quoting StormW:


Yeah. It appears to be hitting better on cyclogenesis than track.


(add: quoting Barefootontherocks, as edited by StormW)
gfs has had this potential storm, now Hermine, not only forming but also going in to TXMx Border since at least Sat a.m. 0904 06z gfs from fsu site.

Still does. I don't look at every run so maybe its focus changed from run to run, but anyone who's been watching coulda had an inkling two days ago what today would bring. My local mets in Norman have had it in their sights for a possible severe TS and rain event for at least two days based in part on gfs track.


Quoting StormW:
I'm not talking this storm in general...the overall performance of the GFS for the season.


Oh. Your context was unclear-at least to me.

Have a good one bloggers and blogettes!
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 151 Comments: 18415
Quoting PtownBryan:


Well that is true! It is not everyday lol. I remember when I tried digging a hole to plant a tree in the house my roomate and I rented in Norman. Yikes! 2 inches of soil then it was like solid rock!!! I did do storm chasing with Greg Whitworth from Fox OKC and some other friends. Indeed, good times! I have film of him holding the camera and a lighting strike right near us. Glad we lived lol! How is Oklahoma doing these days?

Whoa you almost got struck and it's on film! Wow I got struck by lightening once....on the phone....knocked my socks off let me tell you....should have listened to my grandmother about that one for sure lol. Oklahoma doing pretty good....we had that tornado outbreak for a day back in March. Other than that, for almost a decade now the tornadoes here have been very mild compared to what they once were. The stormchasers around here a couple of years ago were angry because of the lack of tornadoes to chase and many of them gave up in disgust about this area and they mostly hang out around Kansas and Texas more so now.
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Quoting JBirdFireMedic:


Thanks for responding. I am curious how you know the reason they turned around. Not questioning you directly, just curious the source of that type of info. Thanks in advance.
I don't have a direct source, I just heard several people on the blog say that they turned around due to radar problems.
Member Since: September 2, 2009 Posts: 130 Comments: 21091
Quoting StormW:


Thank you, portcharlotte


Hi storm, I know Hermine is not making landfall here, but what kind of weather should we get here in SE TX?
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Quoting StormsAreCool:


But he's eating his Wheaties®

lol XD
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5648
237. jpsb
Quoting StormW:
Storm in the Gulf! What is up with that, where the heck did this come from and even more importantly where is this storm going to go? Anyone?
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Quoting portcharlotte:
STORMW Sorry you have to address this issue(not having a degree) but it does tend to haunt those who have the experience and expertise to forecast but do not have a degree. I have 14 years with the NWS as a tech..I can make forecasts based on data available but have always been quiet in modern times because of the lack of a degree in Meteorology. Without a degree it's not credible TO SOME PEOPLE to be too outspoken even if you have the ability to out-forecast a degreed met....I think you do a great job and continue to do so!






Kudos I agree. Degrees are good but not a substitute for experience I read Storm's blog everyday and could care less what degree he has or doesn't have. He nails the forcasts and teaches me in the process!
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Quoting IKE:
This hot chick is heading for the coast....


Is that an eye?
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5648
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I know that because on Google Earth you could see Recon returning back to base.


Thanks for responding. I am curious how you know the reason they turned around. Not questioning you directly, just curious the source of that type of info. Thanks in advance.
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Quoting TexasHurricane:


That is what I was thinking....size and track.


Ok TX Hurricane lets not even think about the same track! I still see people with blue tarped roofs now and then and we are still missing street signs here in Pearland! Plus I don't want to go w/o electricity for 13 days again lol. I have a newfound respect for electricity after Ike!
Member Since: July 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 170
Quoting extreme236:
Very vigorous wave east of Senegal.


Do you think we'll have a yellow circle at 2 pm TWO? for the wave that has just emerged?
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New HH for HerMean



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI


TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
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Quoting Hurricanes101:


relax drama queen

it was all flight level and they were at 25,000 feet

That killed the excitement. LOL!
Member Since: July 7, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 5648
227. IKE
This hot chick is heading for the coast....

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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Gaston is small.


But he's eating his Wheaties®
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Quoting StormW:


Yeah Reed...guess this doesn't mean anything but a bunch of squiggly lines to some.



Looks exactly like a bunch of squggly lines to me!...but then I'm not trying to forecast anything. ;^)
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Quoting MahFL:
whats with Stormw have his posts censored ?


Good reminders that nobody is above the rules, and general asinine behavior or pointing to post counts won't be tolerated by the community. Good modding.
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Very vigorous wave east of Senegal.
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Hermine is already affecting the Houston area...or, at least a small part of her off to the NE. Raining HARD at my house.
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Link

Click on loop for the Dvorak imagery. It shows individual spiral banding present, especially on the southern side of the deepest convection.
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Recon. finding 46 mph winds well west of ex-Gaston.
Link
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Quoting PcolaDan:


Well why not? :)

Oklahoma, where the wind comes sweepin' down the plain
And the wavin' wheat can sure smell sweet
When the wind comes right behind the rain.

We know we belong to the land
And the land we belong to is grand!
And when we say
Yeeow! Ayipioeeay!
We're only sayin'
You're doin' fine, Oklahoma!
Oklahoma O.K.
L - A - H - O - M - A
OKLAHOMA!
Yeeow!


Right on, Dan. Without moisture from tropical systems the Plain might not have enough Rain! Lots of times TX TC system remnants end up here. Hermine may also bring some flooding... and maybe tornadoes to N TX and S OK according to SPC day 3 outlook.
Member Since: April 29, 2006 Posts: 151 Comments: 18415
i bet ya that not one Cape Verde NAMED storm can make it across the atlantic now the mid Atl trof refuses to go away and the Sub-T ridge is not strong enough to progress it along and with colder air already on the move and seasonal progression it will only dig deeper. one will have to stay weak and move under in the LLevel flow and develop in the SW atl or the Caribbean to effect the US
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Quoting PtownBryan:


Man if Igor is anything like Ike...


That is what I was thinking....size and track.
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Quoting StormW:


Yeah Reed...guess this doesn't mean anything but a bunch of squiggly lines to some.


So we had a few recurvatures.. Doesn't every storm season have at least a few recurvatures? The pattern right now shows a nice ridge over the Eastern US after the strong trough pushed away. BTW, Hermine developed off the trailing edge of that trough, and got some help with X-TD11E. The GFS may be right in recurving Igor, but what about the storm behind it, did we not learn the pattern from Danielle and Earl, Edouard and Fran (1996), Fabian and Isabel (2003). This was not directed at you Storm, just explaining why I called it a wishcast.
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103. StormW
This comment has been removed for violating the Community Standards.

Now I've seen everything. I never expected to see a StormW post "violating the Community Standards".

C'mon StormW, get with the program. You get two more violations, then we send you to ReHab until you learn how to rejoin our Community.

We have Standards, you know!
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Quoting StormGoddess:

Yeah, I remember a few have come up this direction. Just doesn't happen that often, though. You did some storm chasing out here? Good times indeed! :))


Well that is true! It is not everyday lol. I remember when I tried digging a hole to plant a tree in the house my roomate and I rented in Norman. Yikes! 2 inches of soil then it was like solid rock!!! I did do storm chasing with Greg Whitworth from Fox OKC and some other friends. Indeed, good times! I have film of him holding the camera and a lighting strike right near us. Glad we lived lol! How is Oklahoma doing these days?
Member Since: July 5, 2010 Posts: 0 Comments: 170
212. Bonz
Quoting StormW:


We're tied on that! LOL!


Heat index here currently is 100. I'm hiding in my air-conditioned cave all day.
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Quoting Gearsts:
What?link?OH!


relax drama queen

it was all flight level and they were at 25,000 feet
Member Since: March 10, 2010 Posts: 1 Comments: 7407
210. MahFL
whats with Stormw have his posts censored ?
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Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Gaston is small.


Has a Napoleon complex.
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207. IKE
12Z CMC...
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Jeff co-founded the Weather Underground in 1995 while working on his Ph.D. He flew with the NOAA Hurricane Hunters from 1986-1990.